Player stats, sales, and reception speculation thread

[aieeegrunt]

#22 in top sellers list right now, as noted above
#204 in daily active players

But what I found most interesting is that, per SteamDB, Civ 7 is currently #8 in Wishlist activity. I haven't noticed this stat up til now, but that sounds to me like a lot of prospective buyers on the sidelines.

That will be people waiting for a sale on the Complete Edition.

It might contain some people waiting on a Classic Mode, but I have no idea how large that group is

 

[Crashdummy]

If this weekend with this sale and with the visibility that Steam gives by placing the sale in the home page Civ 7 doesnt get at least 15k players, then i dont think there is any hope for the game before a big change (either in gameplay like a Classic Mode or by releasing an expansion) is released

 

[stealth_nsk]

If this weekend with this sale and with the visibility that Steam gives by placing the sale in the home page Civ 7 doesnt get at least 15k players, then i dont think there is any hope for the game before a big change (either in gameplay like a Classic Mode or by releasing an expansion) is released

Sigh. There's little connection between simultaneous player number and sales. It's not a sales metric. It doesn't even reflect number of active players. It's a metric for multiplayer games, reflecting how easy you could find someone to play with. Period.

EDIT: I've tried to write some detailed explanation about the metrics, but I'm on the third page already and it doesn't seem to end, so I'll try with the most simple one.

Imagine two types of active players. First player just bought the game and plays, for example, 40 hours per week. Second player owns the game for several months, so he is at best playing the game 4 hours per week on average. If we count simultaneous player numbers, we'll see 10 times more for players of the first type than for the second one, with the same number of active players. And that's one many many factors which could affect correlation between number of simultaneous players and number of active players.

That's behavior metric and like most behavior metrics, it could only be used for its direct meaning.

P.S. And don't get me started on how peak simultaneous player number is affected by weekly schedules and timezones...

 

[Smegger213]

Wrong again. Look at the graph you just sent. The past 30 days from the date I said are:

1. 9,801
2. 10,066
3. 8,057
4. 7,741
5. 7,472
6. 7,265
7. 7,899
8. 9,188
9. 9,980
10. 7,834
11. 8,975
12. 8,965
13. 8,839
14. 9,542
15. 11,301
16. 11,758
17. 9,348
18. 8,863
19. 8,459
20. 8,316
21. 8,768
22. 10,132
23. 10,719
24. 8,528
25. 8,037
26. 7,703
27. 7,228
28. 7,750
29. 8,941
30. 9,595

That's 22 out of 30 days where it has peaked over 8,000.

The last 30 days still says average 6822 with a peak of 11839. I am not wrong. It's not me that puts the figures up. It states average for last 30 days 6822.

 

[Kev1916]

If this weekend with this sale and with the visibility that Steam gives by placing the sale in the home page Civ 7 doesnt get at least 15k players, then i dont think there is any hope for the game before a big change (either in gameplay like a Classic Mode or by releasing an expansion) is released

If players continue to play Civ V and Civ Vi in greater numbers then this "civ" then this mess becomes a foot note.

In terms of sales any new player should Opt to buy V or VI

 

[itix]

I can see from gamalytic that sales are going up. Yesterday it was 7k (copies sold in the last 7 days) and today it is 12k. Looks like it is gaining +5k new purchases daily.

Civ 7 is #14 in top sellers atm but Age of Wonders 4 and AoW 4 expansion pass are ahead of Civ 7.

I think we are going to see Civ 7 more and more on sale in the future. Slap -30% to the base game and call it a day.

 

[Smegger213]

I can see from gamalytic that sales are going up. Yesterday it was 7k (copies sold in the last 7 days) and today it is 12k. Looks like it is gaining +5k new purchases daily.

Civ 7 is #14 in top sellers atm but Age of Wonders 4 and AoW 4 expansion pass are ahead of Civ 7.

View attachment 740137
I think we are going to see Civ 7 more and more on sale in the future. Slap -30% to the base game and call it a day.

Is that UK Steam charts? Because the chart that I see shows it at number 23 not 14.

 

[Kwami]

I can see from gamalytic that sales are going up. Yesterday it was 7k (copies sold in the last 7 days) and today it is 12k. Looks like it is gaining +5k new purchases daily.

Civ 7 is #14 in top sellers atm but Age of Wonders 4 and AoW 4 expansion pass are ahead of Civ 7.

View attachment 740137
I think we are going to see Civ 7 more and more on sale in the future. Slap -30% to the base game and call it a day.

AoW4 was behind Civ7 this morning. That game just got a new expansion, though.

 

[itix]

Is that UK Steam charts? Because the chart that I see shows it at number 23 not 14.

Finland. I guess there are regional differences.

 

[DefinitelyNotSidMeier]

The last 30 days still says average 6822 with a peak of 11839. I am not wrong. It's not me that puts the figures up. It states average for last 30 days 6822.

You've now changed the goal posts. You originally said the game is struggling to get 8,000 players. I pointed out it had gotten at least 8,000 players 22 out of the previous 30 days at the time. Now you're talking about average players over the past 30 days.

 

[DefinitelyNotSidMeier]

If this weekend with this sale and with the visibility that Steam gives by placing the sale in the home page Civ 7 doesnt get at least 15k players, then i dont think there is any hope for the game before a big change (either in gameplay like a Classic Mode or by releasing an expansion) is released

It's completely unrealistic to expect a 56% boost in peak concurrent players from a 30% sale. When Civ VI first went on sale for 33% in May 2017, it saw an 8% increase in the peak concurrent player count from the weekend before the sale to the weekend during the sale. It then dropped back down.

 

[GeneralZift]

Wow the game itself has birthed a spokesperson that's pretty cool

 

[DefinitelyNotSidMeier]

Wow the game itself has birthed a spokesperson that's pretty cool

You guys expect too much of me! Wait until you see me in a year.

 

[GeneralZift]

You guys expect too much of me! Wait until you see me in a year.

I think I'll need 3 years at this rate but no worries stew at your own speed!!

If this game was a stew they sold it with the meat still cooking inside... So I guess it's like a Korean hotpot
This is how I would explain it to the investors

 

[Kwami]

I think I'll need 3 years at this rate but no worries stew at your own speed!!

If this game was a stew they sold it with the meat still cooking inside... So I guess it's like a Korean hotpot
This is how I would explain it to the investors

Tasty?

 

[Core Imposter]

Hasty.

 

[Crashdummy]

It's completely unrealistic to expect a 56% boost in peak concurrent players from a 30% sale. When Civ VI first went on sale for 33% in May 2017, it saw an 8% increase in the peak concurrent player count from the weekend before the sale to the weekend during the sale. It then dropped back down.

Civ VI had a higher base

And it isnt a 56% increase, the game has reached 11.8k less than one month ago (July 27th)

I stand by my opinion, less than 15k would be a big issue IMHO

 

[DefinitelyNotSidMeier]

Civ VI had a higher base

And it isnt a 56% increase, the game has reached 11.8k less than one month ago (July 27th)

I stand by my opinion, less than 15k would be a big issue IMHO

11,758 to 15,000 is still ridiculous. That's a 28% increase, Civ VI never received an increase that big in its first year, maybe ever excluding the release of a major expansion pack.
The highest increase in peak concurrent players week to week CIV VI had was 26% (9,317 raw number) during the 2016 Christmas Holidays while it was on sale for 10% and received the Winter 2016 update. So the holidays, a sale & an update couldn't hit 28%.
The second highest was 24% (5,855 raw number) after the Summer Update in July 2017 plus it was on sale for 33% at that time. The biggest increase (in the first year) solely from a sale was June 2017 when it was on sale 40% off. That was a 21% increase (4,568 raw number).

On Sunday, VII peaked at 9,595. To get to 15,000 it would have to increase it's numbers by 56% (5,405 raw number). We can all agree that is ridiculous to expect and won't happen.
You said about the 11,758 number, that was after the 1.2.3 update which brought players back. Again, that'd still be a 28% increase (3,242 raw number). There is no update this time, just the 30% sale.

The biggest week-to-week increase for VII so far in terms of peak concurrent players for the week was 23% (2,252 raw number) after the huge 1.2.2 update, plus it was on sale for 15%. So even to go from 11,758 to 15,000 (3,242 raw number) would be ridiculous.
If there was a big update this week as well as the 30% sale, then I think we'd see a big increase of around 25% which would put the raw number to around 12,000.

As there is no update, my prediction (could be completely wrong) is it'll peak somewhere between 10,000 & 10,500 - maybe up to 11,000. 100% won't be 15,000 and should never expect that.
You can stand by your opinion, it 100% will not hit 15,000 and it will not be an issue in the slightest.

 

[Crashdummy]

11,758 to 15,000 is still ridiculous. That's a 28% increase, Civ VI never received an increase that big in its first year, maybe ever excluding the release of a major expansion pack.
The highest increase in peak concurrent players week to week CIV VI had was 26% (9,317 raw number) during the 2016 Christmas Holidays while it was on sale for 10% and received the Winter 2016 update. So the holidays, a sale & an update couldn't hit 28%.
The second highest was 24% (5,855 raw number) after the Summer Update in July 2017 plus it was on sale for 33% at that time. The biggest increase (in the first year) solely from a sale was June 2017 when it was on sale 40% off. That was a 21% increase (4,568 raw number).

On Sunday, VII peaked at 9,595. To get to 15,000 it would have to increase it's numbers by 56% (5,405 raw number). We can all agree that is ridiculous to expect and won't happen.
You said about the 11,758 number, that was after the 1.2.3 update which brought players back. Again, that'd still be a 28% increase (3,242 raw number). There is no update this time, just the 30% sale.

The biggest week-to-week increase for VII so far in terms of peak concurrent players for the week was 23% (2,252 raw number) after the huge 1.2.2 update, plus it was on sale for 15%. So even to go from 11,758 to 15,000 (3,242 raw number) would be ridiculous.
If there was a big update this week as well as the 30% sale, then I think we'd see a big increase of around 25% which would put the raw number to around 12,000.

As there is no update, my prediction (could be completely wrong) is it'll peak somewhere between 10,000 & 10,500 - maybe up to 11,000. 100% won't be 15,000 and should never expect that.
You can stand by your opinion, it 100% will not hit 15,000 and it will not be an issue in the slightest.

So in your opinion this 30% sale with the Founders pack relaunch, will only increase player numbers between 500-1000 and maybe up to 1500? Between 6-10% increase maybe up to 15%?

That is a bit low IMO. AoW4 (which had a recent expansion at the same time of the sale, i know) already had a 250% increase without even getting to the weekend

When you compare with Civ 6 numbers, you are comparing to a game that already had decent numbers, its harder to get an increase in players when you already have decent numbers. Its easier when you are on the lower end (which Civ 7 is). Thats how AoW4 could do such an increase, because it was in the lower end

I am not saying a 250% increase should be expected without an expansion, but 25%-30% while being in the lower end? It isnt crazy

 

[DefinitelyNotSidMeier]

So in your opinion this 30% sale with the Founders pack relaunch, will only increase player numbers between 500-1000 and maybe up to 1500? Between 6-10% increase maybe up to 15%?

That is a bit low IMO. AoW4 (which had a recent expansion at the same time of the sale, i know) already had a 250% increase without even getting to the weekend

When you compare with Civ 6 numbers, you are comparing to a game that already had decent numbers, its harder to get an increase in players when you already have decent numbers. Its easier when you are on the lower end (which Civ 7 is). Thats how AoW4 could do such an increase, because it was in the lower end

I am not saying a 250% increase should be expected without an expansion, but 25%-30% while being in the lower end? It isnt crazy

Correct that's what I think.

I don't know much about AoW4 but it's 40% off plus as you say an expansion, so that's a completely different situation. VI saw nearly 100% increase after its expansions, and it was already getting 40,000ish.

Not to mention it's much cheaper regardless. $30 with the discount vs $49 for Civ VII with the discount.

In terms of percentages, the difference between Civ VII now (around 8,000) and Civ VI back then (around 20,000) is closer between Civ VII now (8,000) and AoW4 (around 2,700).
Civ VII to Civ VI - 150% increase
AoW 4 to Civ VII - 196% increase

In terms of raw numbers, yes Civ VII is closer to AoW4. Sorry, but I think 25-30% from a 30% sale with no update or expansion is 100% crazy.