Re-Unification of Korea

[vb1]

Absurd?
Hardly.
Kim's government days are numbered, what do you think will happen when it collapses?
Do you think China will let chaos run in a nuclear capable country?
I see the PLA on their doorstep the very moment that happens.
China has being viewing the Korea situation very closely since the Korean war.

 

[Enkidu Warrior]

Absurd?

Completely. Whatever the politics both Koreas would like nothing more than to reunify. If China was dumb enough to attempt annexation they'd have to face off against the enormous North Korean military. When North Korea collapses China will become the biggest supporter of reunification in the world. Anything that gives the refugees another direction to run in rather than across the Yalu river.

 

[~Corsair#01~]

The situation is really completely different from Germany. East Germany was the wealthiest country in the Soviet Bloc, had totally modern technology and infrastructure, a populace with a roughly equal level of education to the West and was much smaller in proportion to the west than Jongoland is the ROK.

The big problem with North Korean integration isn't infrastructure, wealth or public sentiment, but education.
The loyalty to Jongo in the north is a total joke, and the communications could be fixed up with international investment but the NKs have no experience of living and working in a modern society, much less the cutthroat world of the SK economy. They'll be competing in one of the most intense and well-educated labour markets on earth. There's no real incentive to move businesses to the north. Demand is non-existent. SK could set a high exchange rate for Jongoland roubles and relocate a lot of government work north but realistically there would be majority unemployment in the north and millions of homeless refugess in Seoul.

It's hard to see any good news for Jongoland for some time, unless of course the Great Leader himself snuffs it and his replacement is less deranged.

 

[REDY]

I see China annexing NK before they would reunite with South Korea.

Remember that NK is now a nuclear capable country.
Reunification with South korea would mean that South Korea automatically acquires nuclear weapons.
I dont think China would be particularly happy about a pro-American nuclear capable country right on their doorstep.

Well proamerican should turn to Korean when will be NK treat finished. And it realy doesnt matter if Korea has nuclear arsenal when they are connected with USA. I think these two things are linked, in any way China hasnt chance to make it better with NK annexation, it would only tarnish their reputation.

 

[Dragonlord]

The situation is really completely different from Germany. East Germany was the wealthiest country in the Soviet Bloc, had totally modern technology and infrastructure, a populace with a roughly equal level of education to the West and was much smaller in proportion to the west than Jongoland is the ROK.

(bolding by me)

You have GOT to be joking! That was the myth Honecker&Co had been trying to propagate for years - but I saw the roads (or rather, tried to drive on them) and other 'modern' infrastructure right after reunification ... and the technology was 20 to 30 years behind that of the West, which I also saw examples of with my own eyes.
Granted the education, though, and East Germany WAS the wealthiest country in the Soviet Bloc ... which says more about the poverty of the rest of the Bloc, though.

If the Koreans avoid the stupid mistakes the German politicians (under the leadership of Helmut Kohl, whose memory be reviled) made for populistic reasons, reunification could be of benefit to all concerned, though certainly not without problems.
Just remember that the North Koreans would not only be a cheap labor force, but also very hungry consumers who basically would need everything .. do it right, and you could have an economic boom.
Just don't 'reform' the currency by exchanging 1:1 like Kohl did with East and West German marks - that one idiotic decision swept away all the East German industry in one fell swoop.

 

[~Corsair#01~]

The roads, etc. were certainly backwards by contemporary Western terms but were servicable enough as proven by their quite speedy modernisation. "Totally modern" was admittedly wrong, but they weren't that bad either.

If the Koreans avoid the stupid mistakes the German politicians (under the leadership of Helmut Kohl, whose memory be reviled) made for populistic reasons, reunification could be of benefit to all concerned, though certainly not without problems.
Just remember that the North Koreans would not only be a cheap labor force, but also very hungry consumers who basically would need everything .. do it right, and you could have an economic boom.
Just don't 'reform' the currency by exchanging 1:1 like Kohl did with East and West German marks - that one idiotic decision swept away all the East German industry in one fell swoop.

The problem is that there really isn't any industry there to sweep away. The PDRK does not as far as anyone can tell produce anything at all except for a small amount of quite worthless military hardware. The area is very rich in ores and I'm sure SK could employ a lot of locals in primary industry, but that is pretty much it for economic potential.
The only way any consumer demand could be generated in the North is through giving their worthless currency a high exchange rate to the SK one, and this would drive up the cost of employing workers there.
The principal problem, as I've said, is the employability of the North Koreans. It must be remembered that their education system is probably the worst in Asia. How can they possibly compete with SK or Chinese workers?

I'm not saying the economy of the north wouldn't improve, but that the potential for improvement is low enough that the result would still be an intolerable burden on the Southern tax payer.

 

[Cutlass]

The workers of the north can be useful despite being uneducated for the same reason as vast numbers of other uneducated asians are profitably employed: Give them unskilled jobs.

South Korea has moved away from unskilled factory work, but recently enough so that they remember it. The North Koreans, whatever their other lacks, are a disciplined people. They have to be. So start with what they are already doing in primary industries and add capital and knowledge to increase their productivity and then add factories for unskilled labor like textiles, clothing, and shoes. In one to two generations, as the North has infrastructure built and skills gained, the industry can gradually evolve into what the south has.

 

[dosed150]

The roads, etc. were certainly backwards by contemporary Western terms but were servicable enough as proven by their quite speedy modernisation. "Totally modern" was admittedly wrong, but they weren't that bad either.


The problem is that there really isn't any industry there to sweep away. The PDRK does not as far as anyone can tell produce anything at all except for a small amount of quite worthless military hardware. The area is very rich in ores and I'm sure SK could employ a lot of locals in primary industry, but that is pretty much it for economic potential.
The only way any consumer demand could be generated in the North is through giving their worthless currency a high exchange rate to the SK one, and this would drive up the cost of employing workers there.
The principal problem, as I've said, is the employability of the North Koreans. It must be remembered that their education system is probably the worst in Asia. How can they possibly compete with SK or Chinese workers?

I'm not saying the economy of the north wouldn't improve, but that the potential for improvement is low enough that the result would still be an intolerable burden on the Southern tax payer.

reunification would cost south korea quite a lot they would basically have to support north korea until they can turn it into part of a functioning economy, but wouldnt south koreans prefer this to the current situation, having a hostile, unstable government allegedly possesing nuclear weapons claiming half of korea

 

[Knight-Dragon]

The workers of the north can be useful despite being uneducated for the same reason as vast numbers of other uneducated asians are profitably employed: Give them unskilled jobs.

South Korea has moved away from unskilled factory work, but recently enough so that they remember it. The North Koreans, whatever their other lacks, are a disciplined people. They have to be. So start with what they are already doing in primary industries and add capital and knowledge to increase their productivity and then add factories for unskilled labor like textiles, clothing, and shoes. In one to two generations, as the North has infrastructure built and skills gained, the industry can gradually evolve into what the south has.

This is pretty much the model for all of the advanced Asian economies (except Japan, which already had a decent literacy rate when Perry arrived).

My mother is an unskilled worker too, yet today I have a decent job with a fine American firm in Singapore.

The road will be long and hard but with effort, they can make it.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

I see China annexing NK before they would reunite with South Korea.

Remember that NK is now a nuclear capable country.
Reunification with South korea would mean that South Korea automatically acquires nuclear weapons.
I dont think China would be particularly happy about a pro-American nuclear capable country right on their doorstep.

The Chinese have a very good working relationship with S Korea today, vis a vis Japan.

I don't think they will want to turn S Korea into an enemy and push them into Japan's arms and turn the Korean penisular into another front with the US. That was why N Korea was allowed to go after the Korean War, so that they can be the buffer state between China and S Korea (US surrogate).

In the last thousand years, the Chinese have pretty much given up on conquering and sinicizing Korea. Much more effective, as an ally (today) or vassal (in the past).

 

[Tee Kay]

The problem is that there really isn't any industry there to sweep away. The PDRK does not as far as anyone can tell produce anything at all except for a small amount of quite worthless military hardware. The area is very rich in ores and I'm sure SK could employ a lot of locals in primary industry, but that is pretty much it for economic potential.
The only way any consumer demand could be generated in the North is through giving their worthless currency a high exchange rate to the SK one, and this would drive up the cost of employing workers there.
The principal problem, as I've said, is the employability of the North Koreans. It must be remembered that their education system is probably the worst in Asia. How can they possibly compete with SK or Chinese workers?

I'm not saying the economy of the north wouldn't improve, but that the potential for improvement is low enough that the result would still be an intolerable burden on the Southern tax payer.

I think you may be exaggerating North Korea's poverty there. It's poor, but not that poor. Per capita income is still higher than a lot of African countries.

The North Koreans have a decent (not good, but not that horrible either) education system. The people in Pyongyang in particular are pretty well educated. Those who are not well educated can, as some here have mentioned earlier, take up unskilled jobs. As South Korea makes the transition into a "First World" economy, the North Korean can fill the labour shortage nicely.