I feel this fits better in this thread, maybe.
Playing as the Byzantines. Battling the Timurids.
My knight vs. Timurid (98.1% victory chance)
battle lost
- reloading save game -
taking another (!) knight.
knight vs. Timurid (88.4% victory chance)
battle lost again
And that is not a one-timer. I kept losing units in battles despite extremely low probability (roughly 90%+ victory chance) as the Byzantines when e.g. fighting mongols, arabs etc.
It just seems too much "luck" to be true. Are there some secret modifiers with the Byzantines that do not get added to the victory chance calculation?
That would make sense. If not, I better hurry and play the lottery. I seem to have a hand for odd numbers... :-D
The odds won’t be recalculated when you reload; upon that reload you will always lose your next battle. Try sacrificing a cheap unit, use a unit with withdrawal chance, or just end the turn with no more attacking if that is an option.