::rises out of lurker-dom:: Hey! This idea seems to be very interesting - just wanted to give my input, in case you needed more =P. Since I don't post much, this might be long, though.
For Central Asia - maybe there arises an economic, and not a religious reason for unification? I remember reading somewhere that thanks to desertification, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikstan, and... I think Turkmenistan too, are all going to become mostly uninhabitable in the next century. Or at least, the population of these already small countries will decrease dramatically. It would be in the interests of all to keep the region stable, especially for Kazakhstan, which dominates the area and would stand to benefit the most from the increase in regional stability - something crippling poverty in its southerly regions and borders would certainly not help along. Mongolia could join in order to assert itself on the world stage, and attempt to escape its modern history of alternating Russian and Chinese regional domination. It seems like the Central Asian countries would definitely sympathize with the Russian part of that historical pendulum.
As for the other countries - Pakistan, Afghanistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia... I'm not sure why they would join what seems to be almost specifically a post-Soviet Central Asian entity. With the possible exception of Afghanistan, none of these countries would have reasons or situations similar enough to Mongolia's to join a central Asian union from that perspective. And in modern times, the Caucus region seems to be gravitating strongly towards the West in general, and the EU and the United States in particular - with little to no compulsion to join the other side of the Caspian. In fact, with Turkey as part of the EU, it would fit the theme of European Expansion nicely if Georgia and Armenia were to fall into the EU's arms, as it were. Actually, mostly Muslim Azerbaijan might join the Central Asian bloc, now that I think about it. It shares none of Georgia's or Armenia's historical links to Europe, and would likely feel threatened, being surrounded by Russia on one side and the EU on the other - especially if the Middle East is wiped out like you have it in your scenario.
Last but not least, I kind of agree about the North Korea/South Korea thing being more likely than a China/North Korea thing. At the very least, because North Korea has aggravated China more often than not, as of late, and because any incursion by China into North Korea would result in a war. If the US were not in a position to help South Korea, I think it would be a much more all-or-nothing type thing - either China dominates all the Korean peninsula, or Korea is reunified, and perhaps serves as mainland power useful to the Chinese in order to play off against Japan.
Wow... kinda long, hehe. But I guess I gave fair warning. =P Hope this helps, a little. ^_^
-Kyrillion
(or at least I've succeeded in hiding it from myself for almost 18 years...)
