Settling on riverside gold

This topic so intrigued me that I just had to crunch some numbers myself and post after a long hiatus.
As the OP outlines I'll also consider a 2F1H1C starting tile with Gold in the BFC as compared to a 2F2H3C city tile with an extra grass plain. Additionally I'll assume the existence of one dry corn to be the sole food tile in both cities.

Immediately we should consider the matched trait and starting techs. There are 10 financial leaders in BTS, of those 6 have mining as a starting tech. Notable secondary traits would be Elizabeth (philo), Hannibal (Char), Victoria (Imp) and most especially Pacal (Exp). Lizzy and Hannibal for benefiting from extra food to grow or run specs Vicky and Pacal because of hammer bonuses on key early units. Note also all of these leaders start with mining.

Important numbers: Agri=90 beakers, Mining=74 beakers, wheel= 90, pottery=120
22F required for pop 2, 24F=pop3, 26 pop 4...

Simple analysis of settling Gold: first tech assumed to be agri or mining depending on which the Civ doesn't have (Wang is the only one without either one) unimproved tiles are assumed to be flat grass forests for simplicity
t1 move
t13 worker built 11*12-9=123 beakers
t19 corn farmed 3*6=18F towards growth 123+66=189 beakers
t20 city reaches size 2 with 1F stored net +5F/turn 201 beakers total (agri, mining, wheel, pot (91±8 beakers left ) excepting mansa who will have pot)
t24 grass mine completed 21F stored; net yields +4F/6H/11C
t25 pop 3 1F stored; net yields +4F/6H/11C total beakers=256
t30 river farm finished 22F stored; net yields +5F/6H/12C total beakers=311
t31 pop 4 1F stored; net yields +5F/7H/12C
t35 grass mine finished 21F stored; net yields +4F/10H/12C total beakers=302+60=371


t1 SIP
t15 worker built 15*9=135 beakers
t21 corn farmed 3*6=18F stored; net yields +5F/1H/9C total beakers= 135+54=189
t22 pop 2 1F stored; net yields +5F/2H/9C
t26 pop 3 gold mined 2F stored; net yields +3F/5H/18C total beakers=189+45=234
t32 river farm finished 20F stored; net yields +4F/5H/19C total beakers= 234+18*6=342
t34 pop 4 2F stored; net yields +4F/5H/19C total beakers=342+38=380


Pros:
12 turn worker for everyone but Pacal (possible 10t worker!)
Base commerce rate=11
Lots of Food and Hammers early with above average Commerce

Cons:
loss of 3H/9C tile

I'm too lazy to continue this extrapolation, but based on this simplistic comparison, it would seem that settling Gold yields potentially massive early hammer bonuses, both in base hammer output and extra food for whipping while still maintaining a faster then normal tech pace. I chose to avoid cottages because as total commerce output increases the relative benefit of the Gold tile decreases, so this should present the most compelling argument to avoid settling Gold. Note also I did not take into consideration maintenance and the grass mines weren't riverside, if they were the value of settling Gold would increase (more total commerce decreases total percentage boost from mining Gold).

Furthermore all of the financial leaders excepting maybe Wang can leverage early hammers more effectively then many other civs. Quechas, Immortals, Skirmishers, and Numidians are all exceptional UUs. As it stands I'ld think that settling Gold would benefit any REXing or early war strategies. A more controlled expansion either due to lack of viable terrain or simply turtling would seem to benefit mining the Gold.

Either way great topic and discussion! Thanks for the paradigm shifting idea! :goodjob:
 
i think this is very good topic with some good insight, but one has always to wage the start you were given.

but was worth the read, since from now on I will watch for this eventuality.

This. Yeah, I liked this topic too.
 
Note that I made a dumb math error in my original post that may change your evaluation of the situation. I've fixed it, and propagated the change to my other posts in the thread.
 
Case in point here: it's hard to go wrong with gold in your BFC, no matter what you choose to do. Sure beats a plains cow and 2 silk...
 
I tend to agree... you can mine very early in the game and that extra boost might get you turns ahead of A.I.. Later in the game, that extra gold won´t amount to anything.

You've missed the point - there isn't a later bonus at all (the relative value of the late-game outcomes is pretty well even). You can mine very early... but you can settle on turn 1, which is considerably earlier than that, and if you settle on the gold you net an extra hammer and two commerce from turn 1. Is that worth the loss later when the cottage is maturing? It's an interesting question.
 
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