SGOTM 05 - Gypsy Kings

[hellwitch]

@Tr:
Don't forget that this is manipulated map. The moderators will not leave one of the AI without hammers as they put all except Cyrus capitol on a hill(to be sure that they will survive the ragging barbs). So Alex is hidden and this is not accidently.


Anyway it is better to make peace with Alex now as we will get dplo benefit in the future. If we decide we can declere again without any problems.
And if we want to try the mids in #2 city i have a plan to do it without the problem to fall in pop1. It is better to work the rice(the worker better finnish it first) in the begining (start the mids now is a must ofcource) till we get at least 24 food overflow. Thats way we will lose some hammers before the stone is hook and get them after connectiong the stone. Right after hooking the rice the worker must go on the stone imidiatly and build a quarry first(as the hammers are most needed). then to connect the stone. At this time the capitols worker will be done and can even help for the roads. Then the two workers must prechop the 3 forests(the one that is can be cut at ones) as there is chance to grow new forest near them. When the mids hit the 475 hammers we must finish the chops(meanwhile the workers can build road near there) then at the first chance wimp on the mids(that will save us 3 or 4 turns). The forest will give 60+26+20 hammers. if we are luvky we can save 2-3 turn if a new forest grow.
This i found as best way as the #3 will need at least 4-5 turns more. The end date will be - 370BC or 400(415)BC if a new forest grow. For example #3 city build will be after 300BC in anyway.
And for the danger to miss the mids i post some pics which talk themselves:

 

[da_Vinci]

However, I agree that in this case, the chances of us getting the Pyramids is the same whether we build them in the copper city or in Beshbalik(and the risk is far less as well), so I vote we build them in Beshbalik, and found our culture bridge next. I wonder whether we should switch to the Pyramids there immediately, whip out the worker for some overflow, or just wait till the worker is finished there...dV, you should be able to figure out which of those is better, you seem good at calculating how long it will take to build something.

Let me look at this with fresh eyes. In post 275 I had thought 54 and 49 turns in Besh if working at pop 2.

59 f/h to finish worker, 5 pt surplus now, 12 turns. Farm done in 3, adds one surplus. 59-15 = 44 after 3 turns, divide by 6 per turn = 7.3 so 8 turns more.

Worker is done in 11 turns.

3 turns to do farm. 1 turn move to Besh. 3 turns road north of Besh, 3 turns road on stone. 10 turns Start quarry. new worker arrives, so say quarry take 4 turns. So we are 14 turns from hooking up stone from current turn 98. 10 turns to do is once we start, and 4 turns to be ready to start.

Worker done in 11 turns. Stay at pop 2 option:

mids for 3 turns at 6 hpt x2 is 12 hpt: 36 hammers.

So after 14 turns, 36 hammers into mids. Stone comes in. Now 16 hpt two turns, then one turn off gold onto rice is 10 per turn. Net is 14 per turn.

675 - 36 = 634 - 120 in chops = 514 / 14 = 37 turns + 14 turns at the start to get stone = 51 turns. That is about 250 BC, way too late.

What if we grow to pop 3?

Worker done in 11, now start mids. But work Farm and Forest for 4 food surplus. need 31 food for next pop. 8 turns for next pop.

8 turns at 2 h x2 is 4h is 32 hammers. So after 11 + 8 = 19 turns, we are 32 hammers into mids. Now work farm, gold, stone for 16 hpt

675 - 32 = 643 - 120 chops = 523/16 = 33 turns, + 19 = 52 turns.

Addendum 1: fix above: 3 turns at 2 hpt, then stone, 5 turns at 4 hpt. 6 hammers less. 529/16 = 33 (smaller remainder)

That is really different from R1's estimate ... let me post this, take a closer look and post that later.

Addendum2: Let's look at working stone and farm to grow to pop 3. 3 turns at 2 hpt is 6 hammers. Stone comes online. Work farm = stone for 3 food surplus. We've added 12 food (3 turns at surplus of 4) 31 -12 = 19 food 7 turns on farm and stone is 10 hammers each turn to mids 70 hammers. 11 turns to worker, 3 more to stone, 7 to pop 3 is 21 turns. 76 hammers.

675 - 76 = 599 - 120 chops = 479 / 16 = 30 turns, plus the 21 to get to pop 3, 51 turns. All options appear to be 51 to 52 turns without whips.

I don't see mids any sooner than 250 BC if we don't whip, and if we whip, still after 400 BC

R1, are you sure about your 33 turn estimate? I can't make that work.

dV

 

[da_Vinci]

@ hellwitch: you might have the best predictive recored on the team so far!

Your screenshots do indicate that we will have lots of competition for the mids.

Can you post a turn by turn description of how to execute your approach to the mids? You are not building the second worker in Besh, right? But you are building worker next in Karak, which risks barbs settling a city on our copper or coast, I think.

We have a few options here:

Build mids until we get them or someone else does.

Build mids, if barbs can't keep pillaging the AI, and mids looks hopeless, stop building it and collect the gold on its hammers later.

Forget mids from the start. Build units instead. If we choose that, maybe early sailing to get units to the mainland ... we can defend barb cities, send workers to develop them, etc.

Let me now look at a mids right away option:

Switch to mids right away. 31 food needed for pop 2. Stay on gold. we are 1 F, 4 H in yield. 3 turns at this, 3 F, 12 h. Farm done. now 2F, 4 H. 28 food to go. 14 turns to pop 3. 10 turns to get stone quarried (2 to move, 8 to build) 20 F, 40 H.

So 13 turns in, we have 8 food to go to pop 3, 52 hammers.

Now work stone and farm: +3 food, +5 hammers. 3 turns to pop 3.

9 food gets pop 3, 15 more hammers. One road done on stone.

At turn 16, we have pop 3, 67 hammers. Now we can work farm, stone, gold.

+1 food, +8 hammers, 3 more turns for second road to be done.

24 hammers in those three turns. So 19 turns in, we have 91 hammers into mids, and now stone has hooked up.

675 - 91 = 584 - the 120 chop estimate (to be consistent with other calcs) = 464/16 = 29 turns. 29 + 19 = 48 turns, not including whips. If we can save 8 turns with whips, then we are at about 400 BC.

This seems close to the hw plan, but does not depend on a worker from Karak. Only lose 3 turns of gold (we don't want to lose the resarch from gold for too long).

Does this sound right to you, hw?

I think my priorities are

1. Settle coast city now! Have g_s upload in 8 turns when IW done and before settler founds on coast (settler will have moved there) to see if iron changes our plans any. Then g_s can play on after that.

2. Build settler next in Karak to settle copper in 21 turns.

3. Follow my mids right away plan above. Good chance we don't get it, but I think securing the coast bridge and the copper HE city are more important than mids. If we get it, its a bonus. We can build plenty of troops in the other three cities, all founded in the next 21 turns.

And if we decide mids is hopeless at some point, we can switch to troops at any time we want.

If we agree on that, then the plan is:

1. Switch build in Karak to settler.

2. Settler there now moves to the north of rice west coast site. Gets there on turn 8. We hit end turn (city not founded yet), IW is done, upload to discuss. Did we find iron? Maybe if no iron on our island, no need for the upload.

3. Besh changes to mid production now. Work rice and gold. Continue to work rice and gold after farm done. Worker goes right to quarry the stone, no stopping for roads.

g_s uploads again when the stone is quarried (13 turns of play total), or switches to stone and farm when the stone is quarried and uploads when we hit pop 3 (16 turns of play total).

Then we reassess the run for the mids.

Writing after IW on the research front.

How does this sound to everyone?

dV

 

[hellwitch]

@dV if the worker build the quarry before the road - the quarry and be worked 5 turn sooner = 10 hammers + the worker from Karak will come for the roads and will save 2 turns.
And sorry of the mistake the needed food supply is more - around 30.

 

[g_storrow]

DV you have confused me a little there.

I think we should still go for it personally. I conceed beshbalik might be a better bet than #3.

1.I agree settler in Karak

2. I think copper city before culture bridge city. personally. because slightly closer.

3. Agree with maybe reloading if Iron on island though but not to stop settling the 3rd city.

4. I personally dont think we stop building mids until somone else does. All averages tell us to probabilities but every game is different. If we go for it we go for it. We dontn reassess or anything liek that.

writing next tech defo.

 

[da_Vinci]

@dV if the worker build the quarry before the road - the quarry and be worked 5 turn sooner = 10 hammers + the worker from Karak will come for the roads and will save 2 turns.
And sorry of the mistake the needed food supply is more - around 30.

In my latest post, I had the worker quarry the stone first. I did not make a worker right away in Karak, as I want the setter next there to reduce risk that barbs settle where we want to be. Is that second worker in Karak only good for 2 turns sooner to mids? I'd rather get the settler next in Karak in that case.

The west coast city rice is in jungle, so it will take a while to get that up. And with Karak on a settler, and Besh on the mids, we have to wait a while to get workers in the new cities.

An alternative to going for mids ourselves, is to let AI build it and we target capturing it as first priority. Does that get us faster to the mainland, faster city development on our island, and yet get us representation or police state when we need it?

Pushing mids may be a longshot and may stunt our other development. I am kind of liking the skip it ourselves, go capture it first idea ... but that city will have big maintenance.

Something to ponder ...

dV

 

[da_Vinci]

1. I agree settler in Karak

Works for me.

2. I think copper city before culture bridge city. personally. because slightly closer.

I like Bridge city first becase it is farther! We don't want the barbs to block us from either our HE city W of copper, or our culture bridge city. If we settle copper first, we can't settle coast until 26 turns from now: 18 to build, 8 to walk. If we settle coast in 9 turns, then we can settle copper in 21 from now (18 to build, 3 to walk). Five fewer turns to risk the barbs blocking us with their city.

Also, suppose there is iron near the copper, and that changes best site for the HE copper city? Too late if we build it in 3 turns (IW in 8).

The coast city pretty much goes in one place, regardless ... maybe one inland if that gets the iron. We can walk to coast, see iron before we decide. That seems best to me.

3. Agree with maybe uploading if Iron on island though but not to stop settling the 3rd city.

Not much point to upload when the iron comes in if the settler has already founded. It is to see if that changes what the settler does that make a post iron upload useful, which only occurs if we walk to the coast.

I think we should still go for it personally. I conceed beshbalik might be a better bet than #3.

4. I personally dont think we stop building mids until somone else does. All averages tell us to probabilities but every game is different. If we go for it we go for it. We dontn reassess or anything liek that.

There are costs to building the mids. Workers are focused there, so it delays development of copper city and coast city. We aren't building workers or library in Besh while mids in production.

Getting mids may depend on effective pillage by the barbs. If it is clear a bit later that barbs are spent, and AI has multiple resources hooked up, we might decide to speed up our other city development and forgo mids.

I agree that at any time we are pursuing mids, it should be pretty much all out, but if during that it seems pointless, I can see deciding to scrap it for another plan.

The AI builds, capture mids as job one plan is worth considering, I think.

dV

 

[hellwitch]

about the wimp it will make only 3 to 4 turns less on the mids. And if we go to pop3 we will have -1 in Beshbalik. About the calcs i can make turn by turn description but i can post it tomorrow because i have an arrangment for this evning.
Also the second worker will help only 1 turn on the mid as it help to connect the stone 2 turn earlier + 8+8=16 hammers.
And i really want peace with alex. Maybe when he ask for it (don't know if that gives some hidden benefit).
In long term all the AIs will want peace in one point.
The thing that i am not happy for is that we could live without this barrack in Besh and because of it we can loose the mids now. But that like in live thing happend and we must handle them

 

[da_Vinci]

about the wimp it will make only 3 to 4 turns less on the mids. And if we go to pop3 we will have -1 in Beshbalik. About the calcs i can make turn by turn description but i can post it tomorrow because i have an arrangment for this evning.
Also the second worker will help only 1 turn on the mid as it help to connect the stone 2 turn earlier + 8+8=16 hammers.
And i really want peace with alex. Maybe when he ask for it (don't know if that gives some hidden benefit).
In long term all the AIs will want peace in one point.
The thing that i am not happy for is that we could live without this barrack in Besh and because of it we can loose the mids now. But that like in live thing happend and we must handle them

So your plan is to store up food at first, but not get to pop 3 end by working gold and stone after the food reserves are up? If the WW gets to 3, we'd need to do that, but will it get that high that soon? Right now it is at 1, if it goes to 2 we can still be at pop 3 without idle citizen. But maybe your way is faster regardless? I'll need to look at that.

Working the rice farm and the stone for a long time will stunt our tech growth as the gold will be unworked for a long stretch, won't it? I think my pop 3 plan only leaves gold unworked for 3 turns.

You seem rather skeptical that we can get mids, would you rather we just go capture it from an AI? Or is the gold for the hammers a good fallback if we go after mids? What is your thought about how going for mids slows down other development?

You favor settling the copper next I think. Does the risk of barbs settling near the coast and wrecking our bridge seem small to you?

I think that few or none of us expected that we would build mids in the gold city at the time we founded it. Had we known, starting mids ASAP there would have been nice, but we only learned masonry 1300 BC, 7 or 8 turns ago, so a difference of 32 hammers maybe? Is that such a big difference?

@ all: It seems like we are still not sure what the optimal route to mids is in Besh, whether capturing it later might not be better, and if we are settling coast or copper next.

I think that I, Th, S2 like coast first.

R1, hw and g_s seem to prefer copper first

C63 and Lehm, I'm not sure what their latest thought on this is.

Do we all agree at least that Karak builds a settler?

My sense is that most are willing to start down the mids path in Besh.

Still not sure if pop 3 or pop 2 plan is the best way to go.

Seems like still too much uncertainty for g_s to play yet.

dV

 

[da_Vinci]

Here is the recap of my pop 3 plan:

Switch to mids right away. 31 food needed for pop 2. Stay on gold. we are 1 F, 4 H in yield. 3 turns at this, 3 F, 12 h. Farm done. now 2F, 4 H. 28 food to go. 14 turns to pop 3. 10 turns to get stone quarried (2 to move, 8 to build) 20 F, 40 H.

So 13 turns in, we have 8 food to go to pop 3, 52 hammers.

Now work stone and farm: +3 food, +5 hammers. 3 turns to pop 3.

9 food gets pop 3, 15 more hammers. One road done on stone.

At turn 16, we have pop 3, 67 hammers. Now we can work farm, stone, gold.

+1 food, +8 hammers, 3 more turns for second road to be done.

24 hammers in those three turns. So 19 turns in, we have 91 hammers into mids, and now stone has hooked up.

675 - 91 = 584 - the 120 chop estimate (to be consistent with other calcs) = 464/16 = 29 turns. 29 + 19 = 48 turns, not including whips.

This works if WW does not reach 3 in those 48 turns.

My view of the pop 2 option:

Start mids now, work gold and rice now. 3 turns to farm done,

Add 3 food to current store of 5 for 8 total food. 12 hammers for mids.

10 turns to quarry stone. Work gold and farm. +2 food, + 4 hammers.

now we have 28 food stored, 40 + 12 = 52 hammers done.

Now work gold and stone for six turns (time to road the stone)

Food drops to 22, six turns of 8 hammers is 48. So now 100 hammers done. Now we get our 16 per turn

So after 19 turns, we have 675 - 100 = 575 hammers, - the 120 chops (for comparison to other plans) is 455 hammers, divide by 16 is 29 turns ...

29 turns but we don't have 29 food, we have 28. So one turn we work farm istead of gold, lose 6 hammers, might still be 29 turns due to fractions.

29 turns + 19 turns = 48 turns. Just like pop 3

Difference is pop 3 gives us a bigger whip at the end. That is a plus for that.

Is Pop 2 safer if WW jumps to 3 before we are done? With an idle citizen, we just work the stone and gold, and if we starve, we just lose the idle citizen. So maybe pop 3 plan is better, for the bigger whip at the end?.

I did not calculate the idea that pop 3 works the river plains instead of the rice ... 29 turns of 2 extra hammers, so the calc is 464/18 is 26 turns. 26+19 is 45 turns ... pop 3 saves three turns if WW does not make it to 3. now we can whip this to 40 turns, we are staring at turn 98, so mids done by turn 138, which is about 445 BC?

I would like hw to look at this comparison ... have I got his plan right? Or does he still have something better than my pop 3 plan?

And hw, did you factor in the extra happy from the gold, in saying that we can't be at pop 3? Or did you find that the WW went up more exponentially?

dV

 

[Ronnie1]

I definitely favor trying to build Mids in beshbalik!!

I agree with dV that we should get to pop 3 there ASAP (working rice farm and quarry when available) then add gold when @ pop 3.

If we are going to stop the worker in Besh to start on mids now, I think we need another worker out of Karak before another settler. 1 worker is not enough.

The reason I was advocating more troops a few posts back was not for the troops themselves, but to allow the cities to grow pops. There are no other build options besides troops right now.

I favor founding the copper city next. I don't feel we are in immediate danger of the barbs founding on our island.

I also don't see WW being a factor this early!

 

[da_Vinci]

If we are going to stop the worker in Besh to start on mids now, I think we need another worker out of Karak before another settler. 1 worker is not enough.

I favor founding the copper city next. I don't feel we are in immediate danger of the barbs founding on our island.

If we build a worker in Karak before settler, that is 11 turns + 18 turns + 8 walking turns, or 37 turns, until we can found the coast city. If the barbs do settle in our west, it will be 1 south of the dye to get rice, dye, banana. That will kill our coast city. Do you want to play barb city roulette that long?

I think that if you want worker before settler, that makes settling coast city next even more crucial!

Second, what if iron is located in a way that will change our copper location? Settle the coast first, we still get to see iron just before we found on coast.

If there is iron near the coast city, and it makes south of dye a four resoruce city, the barb city program will make that a prime site for a barb city. If we have already founded copper, and started worker, we are stuck waiting for a settler for the coast.

I guess I'm not convinced that we get so much out of copper early ... let me see ... the copper mined is a nice tile, probably better than any we can get at early in the coast city. If not for the barb risk, copper makes sense first (but I might want to know if there is iron to change my mind about exact spot).

So, do we risk a low probability catastrophic event, for the sake of a relatively small advantage of settling copper first (which has high probablity of still letting us settle coast)? That is the question. If we are even sure that the barb city probability is low.

Do we have any idea of the rate at which barbs will settle cities? How many turns per city on average, and does it depend on number of Civ cities?

All of my worker first in Besh plans took 51 to 52 turns. Mids right away, pop 3 plan, is 45, not counting any chops. So I think we have to go right to mids in Besh if we are serious about mids.

There are three things we want:

1. No barb cities getting in our way.

2. Mids in Besh

3. Fast city development.

No way to guarantee all three at once.

To get 1 and 2, we settle coast, settler in Karak, mids in Besh. The cost: workers arrive late (we have only one for 29 turns, until besh can make one, or until coast can make one)

To get 1 and 3, we settle coast, settler in Karak, finish worker in Besh. The cost: can't get mids before turn 150 (250 BC)

To get 2 and 3, we settle copper (or coast), Mids in Besh, worker in Karak. The cost: risk of barbs blocking either coast or copper city. Loss of which one is more catastrphic?

Pick your poison ... I want to go for 1 and 2, as I think missing 3 (delaying it some) is the smallest loss. My next choice is 1 and 3, as we can then capture mids from someone (well, unless Qin builds it, or Alex). Just seems to me that if we miss the coast city, we can stop the game right there.

A tought and lengthy choice, but worth getting it right, I think. The extra day today has clarified the best routes to mids (still need to see if hw pop 2 plan is something different than mine).

After that, just a matter of choosing among risks and benefits. Thrallia, any chance you can divine how fast barb cities will spawn? If slow enough, we could go for 2 and 3, as R1 wants to do.

dV

 

[Thrallia]

I'd say loss of coast is more damaging. My vote is to continue Pyramids until we finish them, or someone else does. If we lose out, that gold will be able to fund faster research for ourselves for quite awhile while we set up our SE. If we succeed, then we'll have a great shot at finishing faster than most teams. Remember, if the risk is worth the reward, we must accept the riskier plan, if we want to compete for gold.

There's a problem with hw's screenshots though...this is vanilla. The AI doesn't chop forests for wonders. It will work the forests, and if it decides it needs more food, then it might chop a forest for a farm, it won't chop it simply to speed up a wonder.

The only one of those screenshots that worries me is Qin's cow, horse, and mine...but his score is so low, that I think he'll be attempting to expand rather than build wonders right now.

 

[Conquistador 63]

So, do we risk a low probability catastrophic event, for the sake of a relatively small advantage of settling copper first (which has high probablity of still letting us settle coast)? That is the question. If we are even sure that the barb city probability is low.

While I agree on the low risk of barb settling our bridge location, I disagree on this event being catastrophic. There's a 2nd bridge city site available, check screenshot.

There are three things we want:

1. No barb cities getting in our way.

2. Mids in Besh

3. Fast city development.


To get 2 and 3, we settle copper (or coast), Mids in Besh, worker in Karak. The cost: risk of barbs blocking either coast or copper city. Loss of which one is more catastrphic?

If we agree on alternate bridge city site, I think "2 and 3 plan" is the way to go. Of course, in the likely event bridge city 1 is still available when next settler is ready, that city is preferrable to 2.

On MM for faster mids, I leave it to the experts out there.

 

[Ronnie1]

I still think we should look at worker next in Karak. Worker next allows us to pasture the horses and speed the following settler by a few turns. Then we get the benefit of roads to speed the settler to his destination, or working more improved tiles sooner.

An alternative to worker next in Karak is worker as first build in new city while Karak produces another settler, but I don't like it as much.

I will vote for Beshbalik to start mids now. Research writing after IW. Settle the coast site next, (unless location of Iron changes something dramatically). I vote for worker next in Karak, followed by settler.

On MM for Mids. Worker finishes rice farm 2 turns ( it says 3 now, but the worker action has not taken place yet this turn). Then worker moves all the way into Beshbalik (T3). T4 he moves 1 square and builds road, then clear worker action. T5 moves onto stone and quarries until done. The intermediate road build allows us to not waste any turns moving N of Besh, as we are able to start the quarry on T5, just as if we moved all the way there on T4 and started quarry T5. Our road coming back Besh will take 5 more turns (3 on stone and 2 on the tile that got the intermediate build, make sure we move back to that tile).

Switch to Mids this turn (T97). Population works rice now and gold mine for (+1F/4H/7C) for 2 turns until farm is done, (7/36F and 8H/Mids). Then we get (+2F/4H/7C) for 10 turns until quarry is done, (+27/36F and 48H/Mids). Then we work rice farm and quarry for (+3F/5H) for 3 turns and we grow to pop 3, (36/36F and 63H/Mids). Now at pop 3 we get (+1F/8H/7C) for 2 more turns until road is completed to Beshbalik, (+2/38F and 79H/Mids). Now getting (+1F/16H/7C) per turn. 675-79= 596-60(1 chop)=536/16=33.5 (34 turns to completion without any more chops or whips). We can chop the other 2 forests for 60H and whip 1 pop for 45H. 536-105=431/16=26.9 (27 turns to completion). So if we add it all up 27+2+3+10+2= 44 turns. 97 + 44 = Finish date T141 about 400BC.

 

[hellwitch]

I will post my plan soon.
@dV the 3pop plan dont work because when the WW became 2 it will grow againg with the new pop up and it will go to +3 from WW and +3 from the population itself became +6 while we have +5 .

So leting the city to mean idle citizen who want food and maitenence so we will be unable to work the quarry at all = mid in the AD age. If thats happend and we starve this citizen we will lack of stored food we must switch each 2 turn from the quarry to the rice and this will make after 300BC mids = sure(110%) miss too.
Conclusion: pop3 is not a option it is a catastrophe for the mids.

PS.:A rule for WW is that it depends from the population. So if 2pop have -2 WW the 3pop city(50% more pop) will have 50% more WW i.e. -3 WW. This situation is very common and i've seen it in many games.

 

[Ronnie1]

I think we grow it to size 3 as I propose and IF the WW goes to 3 we deal with it then. I don't think it will go that high. But, if it does, we make peace with the AI's 1 at a time until we reduce WW enough to keep working all 3 improved tiles.

 

[da_Vinci]

While I agree on the low risk of barb settling our bridge location, I disagree on this event being catastrophic. There's a 2nd bridge city site available, check screenshot.

If we agree on alternate bridge city site, I think "2 and 3 plan" is the way to go. Of course, in the likely event bridge city 1 is still available when next settler is ready, that city is preferrable to 2.

Nice pickup C63 !!

With a backup bridge city site, that is very low probability for barbs to settle, I am comfortable with the 2, 3 plan, worker in Karak next.

Is it worth waiting an extra 5 turns to see if any iron shows up that might make us settle the copper city on a different tile? Maybe not, as we can expand to use it, if not work it, easily, and why risk barbs ploping a city near our copper. But something to consider.

Assuming that iron won't show up in jungle grass, seems unlikely to find it close enough to copper to change our city site.

I still think we should look at worker next in Karak. Worker next allows us to pasture the horses and speed the following settler by a few turns. Then we get the benefit of roads to speed the settler to his destination, or working more improved tiles sooner.

An alternative to worker next in Karak is worker as first build in new city while Karak produces another settler, but I don't like it as much.

I will vote for Beshbalik to start mids now. Research writing after IW. Settle the coast site next, (unless location of Iron changes something dramatically). I vote for worker next in Karak, followed by settler.

I now agree, worker next in Karak, as we have a backup bridge city. To me, means settle copper next, so barbs don't block that. Is that still your choice for current settler? Not sure based on your last comment.

On MM for Mids. Worker finishes rice farm 2 turns ( it says 3 now, but the worker action has not taken place yet this turn). Then worker moves all the way into Beshbalik (T3). T4 he moves 1 square and builds road, then clear worker action. T5 moves onto stone and quarries until done. The intermediate road build allows us to not waste any turns moving N of Besh, as we are able to start the quarry on T5, just as if we moved all the way there on T4 and started quarry T5. Our road coming back Besh will take 5 more turns (3 on stone and 2 on the tile that got the intermediate build, make sure we move back to that tile).

Switch to Mids this turn (T97). Population works rice now and gold mine for (+1F/4H/7C) for 2 turns until farm is done, (7/36F and 8H/Mids). Then we get (+2F/4H/7C) for 10 turns until quarry is done, (+27/36F and 48H/Mids). Then we work rice farm and quarry for (+3F/5H) for 3 turns and we grow to pop 3, (36/36F and 63H/Mids). Now at pop 3 we get (+1F/8H/7C) for 2 more turns until road is completed to Beshbalik, (+2/38F and 79H/Mids). Now getting (+1F/16H/7C) per turn. 675-79= 596-60(1 chop)=536/16=33.5 (34 turns to completion without any more chops or whips). We can chop the other 2 forests for 60H and whip 1 pop for 45H. 536-105=431/16=26.9 (27 turns to completion). So if we add it all up 27+2+3+10+2= 44 turns. 97 + 44 = Finish date T141 about 400BC.

Sounds like my plan, with a few nuances. It is great if WW does not bite it, see below. Note that we can work gold, quarry and the river plains for 18 hpt at pop 3 and we stagnate our pop at 0 surplus food. That takes 3 more turns off the time, so T138 I is possible, WW permitting.

I will post my plan soon.
@dV the 3pop plan dont work because when the WW became 2 it will grow againg with the new pop up and it will go to +3 from WW and +3 from the population itself became +6 while we have +5 .

So leting the city to mean idle citizen who want food and maitenence so we will be unable to work the quarry at all = mid in the AD age. If thats happend and we starve this citizen we will lack of stored food we must switch each 2 turn from the quarry to the rice and this will make after 300BC mids = sure(110%) miss too.
Conclusion: pop3 is not a option it is a catastrophe for the mids.

PS.:A rule for WW is that it depends from the population. So if 2pop have -2 WW the 3pop city(50% more pop) will have 50% more WW i.e. -3 WW. This situation is very common and i've seen it in many games.

I have learned to take hw very seriously, as he always has good points. The fact that WW is population dependent does add a significant risk to the pop 3 plan.

If we store the food in the bin, it is available to eat while we work gold and quarry, losing 1 food per turn. If we have that food "stored up" in a worker that is idle from WW, we are screwed, as hw says. Even if that idle worker starves off, we have no stored food to sustain constant gold+quarry.

I think we grow it to size 3 as I propose and IF the WW goes to 3 we deal with it then. I don't think it will go that high. But, if it does, we make peace with the AI's 1 at a time until we reduce WW enough to keep working all 3 improved tiles.

By my calculation, the hw pop 2 plan should take just as many turns as the R1 plan above. The pop 3 plan, if work the river plains for 18 hpt at the end, saves an additional 3 turns.

Right now, only Alex will make an even peace deal. So we may not be able to make peace when we want in the next 20 to 30 turns. And, we may want to keep the wars up if the barb swords are being effective at pillage.

We don't have to decide between pop 2 and pop 3 until just before pop grows, which is what, 15 turns? So g_s could play to just before pop growth, and we re-assess the WW status.

I'm leaning toward the pop 2 plan of hw, unless we can see clearly in 15 turns how we can control WW (need to have even peace offers from AI that we have lost troops to ... peace with Alex won't reduce it as we have no losses to him, right?). We use all of R1's nuances in the pop 2 plan (like the road trick).

Three turn delay is worth avoiding the idle worker disaster. So at turn 14 (or 15 perhaps), when we are one turn away from pop 3 in Besh, g_s uploads and we think this out some more. If no clear way to manage WW, then we go negative food and stay at pop 2.

There is also the possibility of delaying the decision point on pop 2 or pop 3 by working both gold and stone before pop 3. If we were to delay pop 3 decision until turn 20, and WW was still 1 at pop 2, maybe pop 3 option would work? But does the later pop 3 approach still save 3 turns, or is it now down to 2?

dV

 

[hellwitch]

THE PLAN

turn 0: start the mids. Work the rice and the gold
turn 2: At the end the rice is ready(the worker has no movement points) the mids are on 8hammers, the stored food is +7.
Continue working the rice(farmed) and the gold so on this turn the food will grow with +2.
turn 4: nothing changed but the worker is moved on the stone. the mids are on 16h the food storege is 11.
turn 13: at the end the quarry is ready. We keep working the rice and the gold. The mids are on 52h = 16 + 9x4, the food is
on +29.
turn 14: the worker start a road. The worked tile from Beshbalik must be changed this turn on gold and the Quarry. The mids will be on 56h
the food acomulated will be 31. From this turn the food will be on -1.
turn 19: at the end the road to the stone is finished. the mids will be on 96h = 56 + 8x5, and the food will be on 26 = 31 - 5x1
turn 20: the worker is on the forest. mids: 112h food=25
turn 24: at the end of the turn the worker has finished the prechop (the message must be "2 turn to chop") the worker must be
stoped with cancel mission button. Mids: 176 = 112 + 4x16 Food = 21
turn 31: The worker has already choped the southest forest(this forest doesn't have border tiles where a forest can grow so we ca chop it at ones)
the Mids: 314h = 176 + 26 + 16x7 the food: 14
turn 36: the East forest is prechoped (1turn form the move and 4 for prechop). Mids:394= 314 + 16x5, food:9. Now the worker can make roads
(the road are aways usefull) or to chop a new forest if there is. The already prechoped forest is for 80 hammers.
turn 40: The worker must finsh one road(maybe). finish the east forest chop. The mids:478 = 394 + 4x16 + 20, the food:5
turn 43: the worker made 2 turns movement and 1 turn finishing the chop. the mids:586 = 478 + 3x16 +60 the food:2
turn 45: The mids are on 618 the food is 0. This must be the first chance for wimp(=60). So just wimp and the Pyramids are builded because even if a AI
finish them on the next turn we will get them as our turn goes before AI's turn.(And from my exp if you wimp a wonder it is already builded)
At turn 45 the date must be 370BC so from 355BC the mids will appear in beshbalik.

few notes: if we finish the worker in karak the start new settler we will get the mids 1 turn earlier because this worker can go directly for the stone
and will work with the first worker on the connection roads for 2 turns= 2 turns earlier stone access= 2 turn with +16 hammers instead of 8 which make
16 hammers bonus on the mids=1 turn earlier. The point is that i fill that every turn could be vital.

 

[da_Vinci]

So the course I now favor is:

mids in Besh right away. Work rice to build up food supply while we quarry the stone. Upload just before pop 3 to see if we can afford to grow to 3 or need to stay at two (depends on WW and peace offers). I would need at least 4 even peace offers other than Alex to go to pop 3.

Details of MM in Besh will be some hybrid of the dV/R1 pop 3 plan with what hw presents shortly on pop 2.

Worker in Karak. Settler founds 1W of copper, as I doubt iron close enough to change that idea, and let's lock in the copper before barb city spawns there. We have a backup bridge city Settler after the worker. That worker pastures horse, mines copper, roads to coast city or clears a hill to mine for copper city.

Research writing after IW.

I suspect we can all agree to this. And I think that the time taken in this discussion has served us well, as we have reached the optimal plan, I think.

dV