To sum it up (ignoring the long term strategy)
We need to decide on
a) research path
b) production
c) capital site
d) scout movement
For research, we have
a1) mng, BW => good for barbs, good for production (chop), bad for commerce, bad for growth
a2) agr, mng, BW => medium for barbs, good for production, bad for commerce, good for growth (if we farm a river-grassland)
a3) agr, wheel, pottery => bad for barbs, bad for chop, good for commerce, medium for growth
Conclusion: we can choose between barbs, growth, commerce. We can't have it all. Which is most important? If we're lucky, axes will harm one or more AI severely.
For production, we have
b1) wrk
b2) warrior
b3) barracks
I presume wrk is the primary choice. So, what's after worker?
b11) Another wrk
b12) Settler
b13) Warrior
b14) Barracks
Personally, I don't think barracks is really worthwhile at this stage. The warrior is needed eventually, but not in a hurry (unless we have a nearby AI). Another worker is only suitable if we go (a1) and chop the second settler asap. We don't need to decide on second production until we know more about the map though. Should we decide on worker for first production?
For capital site, we have
c1) 1SW => good for commerce (+8 gold => ~1 turn of research)
c2) 1SE => good for production (chop third forest)
For scout movement, we have
d1) follow west coast
d2) follow east coast
I suggest (d1) just in case the island continues to the west.
So, it's research and city site that is the important decision. I feel that (a3) is connected to (c1) => maximize research, and that (a2) + (c2) is good for ourselves while (a1) and (c2) is good for the barbs.
Any comments?
BTW, is the tile 3S of scout a forest?