SGOTM 06 - Xteam

[Cactus Pete]

Any disagreement with this logic? If we decide it's possible to win in 12 turns, then we will have enough gold from the chop to get us through, and captured cities will provide more than enough gold for upgrading. Therefore, HBR will not break us (indeed, additional production during the last few turns will not be very helpful and we could even go into anarchy if necessary), and it could provide horse archers somewhere(s) where no other unit could get there in time.

Other than a revised building and whip schedule, especially for galleons -- requesting help here -- I'm struggling to find additional tactics to plan in advance, given the uncertainties of the map.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Concerned about Pasargardae: The cat is highly likely to attack the city next turn with about a 47% chance of winning and a 100% chance of inflicting considerable damage. (Won't his attack occur before units have healed?) Hope someone has a better idea, but here are the two approaches I am considering: (1) move the worker this turn onto the tile immediately south of the cat. I do not expect the cat to be distracted (though possibly), but the worker will reveal tiles, and I do hope any attacking unit within the city will go after the worker and thus be delayed in following up against Pasargadae: or (2) move the worker onto the farm 2 tiles due east of Pasargadae to serve again as a distraction (though not as good, since Arab archer may attack him first) and to find out if there are any attacking units inside the Persian city (it's on a hill, so will be revealed), then attack cat with WE (62% success) if no attackers present and leave WE in city to defend if there are. Of course, I plan to land units from Fred's Ferry onto the forest (unless the bay is two tiles deep) next turn, which should serve as further distraction.

I tested the worker bait in world builder and it seems like it doesn't work. I guess we must attack the cat rather than wait for it to attack us when it will be stronger due to the CR1 promotion and will do additional collateral damage to the sword.

Depending upon what is in the Persian city SW of pasargadae, the stacked loaded galleons may not all need to go there. In particular, there is the possibility of temporarily anchoring the three stacked galleons in mid-turn SW of the hill SW of Ecbatana to drop three units on the hill, rearrange the remainder on two galleons, and thus free the third to return towards Athens or Ironsite for chaining. The three dropped units could protect Ectabana and be picked up later or moved toward Birka.

If the attack on the cat is successful we could even drop of the contents of Fred's Ferry and return it immediately to the Athens area. When picked up later I suggest we fill a couple of galleons and move west and north to raze Tarsus and Gordium in operation clean beach . An xbow would be very welcome in this group to deal with the axe in Gordium.

Any disagreement with this logic? If we decide it's possible to win in 12 turns, then surely we will have enough gold from the chop and captured cities to get us through easily. Therefore, HBR will not break us (indeed, additional production during the last few turns will not be very helpful and we could even go into anarchy if necessary), and it could provide horse archers somewhere(s) where no other unit could get there in time.

It's unclear to me if there will be a trade off with the number of archers we can upgrade to xbows. Other than that I think you are right. We could postpone the decision for a couple of turns - I guess it will be good enough if we get HBR (3 turns) when Mecca and Parsargadea get out of revolt.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Other than a revised building and whip schedule, especially for galleons -- requesting help here -- I'm struggling to find additional tactics to plan in advance, given the uncertainties of the map.

I think the first step would be to create a map with assumptions on city placements and then schedule troops for all cities. The Persian city in the fog to the north must be Susa (Hanging Gardens) - it has probably got 2 border expansions and is covering 30+ tiles. Where is the missing Arab city? Hopefully in the fog W of Haithabu.

 

[DJMGator13]

I think the first step would be to create a map with assumptions on city placements and then schedule troops for all cities. The Persian city in the fog to the north must be Susa (Hanging Gardens) - it has probably got 2 border expansions and is covering 30+ tiles. Where is the missing Arab city? Hopefully in the fog W of Haithabu.

Went back and checked my notes: on Turn 194 (410AD) Susa's culture was 115 and it is missing from the map.



Allow for some mountains and some coast and this should be all the Persian cities. Also helps to confirm that the last Arabian city can only fit in the fog W of Hait. I think we'd be seeing the culture in the fog if it was between Medina and Damascus.

 

[Cactus Pete]

I tested the worker bait in world builder and it seems like it doesn't work. Well, if true, it means I can move the worker onto the farm and find out what's in the city anyway, though I'll be surprised if the Arab archer doesn't take him. I guess we must attack the cat rather than wait for it to attack us when it will be stronger due to the CR1 promotion and will do additional collateral damage to the sword. If there's another attacking unit in the city, then the odds may be better to defend than to essentially sacrifice the WE.

If the attack on the cat is successful we could even drop of the contents of Fred's Ferry and return it immediately to the Athens area. When picked up later I suggest we fill a couple of galleons and move west and north to raze Tarsus and Gordium in operation clean beach . I'm more immediately concerned with the inland cities. We can reach the perimeter ones more quickly. An xbow would be very welcome in this group to deal with the axe in Gordium.

It's unclear to me if there will be a trade off with the number of archers we can upgrade to xbows. Other than that I think you are right. We could postpone the decision for a couple of turns - I guess it will be good enough if we get HBR (3 turns) when Mecca and Parsargadea get out of revolt.

That seems a good time table. Is there any reason to get HBR any earlier to whip HA's in our western cities?

 

[leif erikson]

Spent some time playing around with the map.

I think there are two cities that are going to be the most difficult to get to in a reasonable amount of time, Medina and Susa. The screenie below in the spoiler shows an idea of what we might try to do.

Spoiler :

I think that all our troops in Galleons currently around Ecbatana should go to the Persepolis area unless it is revealed that we need far less then that. Additionally, the Galleon near London should head for the area south of Baghdad in search for the missing Arabian city. Once Persepolis and the mystery Arab city are taken, these forces can join up to go after Susa.

In the meantime, the Galleons used to transport the units to Persepolis can begin to form a chain. Thunder Rider to Leif's to the next one, etc. leading to Tarsus. We run this chain twice then all Galleons head to our home shore to begin transporting units to Vikingland except for MP's FL coming down from Damascus, checking on Medina, and ending up near Gordium. Whichever Galleon moves to the west of Tarsus transports units to Gordium and then helps ship them to Medina.

From there, whatever is available moves units from our coast to Haithabu, Birka, Nidaros and Uppsala to finish.

I calculated that, with favorable odds, we should be at Susa in 12 turns or so, providing we can use the roads, and that they exist, from Pasargadae north. We may not make Medina in 12, it will be tough as we'll really have to push it. We can look closer at that once we see what is in Medina?

I offer this as an outline as I know more discussion will be needed and details further refined.

Edited above as I forgot part of a sentence.

EDIT - I agree with going for HBR once the chop is in.

EDIT2 - I also agree that it would be nice to pop-rush a couple more Galleons.

 

[ShannonCT]

re Damascus: SCT, can you tell me the odds for a 3CR sword vs. a CG2/Drill1 archer fortified in a desert city at 20% culture as opposed to a Combat2 WE vs. the same defender?

With 20% culture defense:
Sword: 71.7%, WE: 86.3%

With 0% culture defense:
Sword: 86.9%, WE: 94.1%

(2) move the worker onto the farm 2 tiles due east of Pasargadae to serve again as a distraction (though not as good, since Arab archer may attack him first) and to find out if there are any attacking units inside the Persian city (it's on a hill, so will be revealed), then attack cat with WE (62% success) if no attackers present and leave WE in city to defend if there are. Of course, I plan to land units from Fred's Ferry onto the forest (unless the bay is two tiles deep) next turn, which should serve as further distraction.

This is probably the best option. At least it shows us what's inside Persepolis and gives us an idea of how much we need to take the city.

re Ecbatana: I'm uncertain how many hammers we will get out of the chop next turn when the city expands. It may be enough to build an archer and, ideally, have at least one hammer left over to cheapen the whip the following turn. Can anyone accurately predict the chop hammers plus city production? If we can't get an archer in one turn, I wonder whether we want to produce one on the following turn or whip a crossbow or WE next turn. Like to hear opinions on this.

I don't think we can get an archer in one turn. Forest chop will bring 29 hammers and we can only produce 3 per turn without starving. Birka had an axe and spear at last check. Whipping an Xbow seems best.

Depending upon what is in the Persian city SW of pasargadae, the stacked loaded galleons may not all need to go there. In particular, there is the possibility of temporarily anchoring the three stacked galleons in mid-turn SW of the hill SW of Ecbatana to drop three units on the hill, rearrange the remainder on two galleons, and thus free the third to return towards Athens or Ironsite for chaining. The three dropped units could protect Ectabana and be picked up later or moved toward Birka.

This would be a good reason to use Parsargadae's worker to check out Persepolis.

Any disagreement with this logic? If we decide it's possible to win in 12 turns, then we will have enough gold from the chop to get us through, and captured cities will provide more than enough gold for upgrading. Therefore, HBR will not break us (indeed, additional production during the last few turns will not be very helpful and we could even go into anarchy if necessary), and it could provide horse archers somewhere(s) where no other unit could get there in time.

We have three captured cities that will be coming out of revolt in 1, 5, and 5 turns. These cities are going to add to our expenses significantly. I would say the risk of going for HBR outweighs the reward. Going into revolt because you can't support your units is considered a forbidden tactic.

Spent some time playing around with the map.

I think there are two cities that are going to be the most difficult to get to in a reasonable amount of time, Medina and Susa. The screenie below in the spoiler shows an idea of what we might try to do.

Getting to Susa in 12 turns is not an attractive option. We have units in Baghdad that can get there in 7 turns. We could send a cat, axe, and Xbow next turn after they've healed a bit more, and send the other Xbow a couple turns later after the archer has been whipped to protect Baghdad. Maybe 4 units will be enough to take it.

As for Medina, aren't we sending a sword and cat there now to see if Medina is as lightly defended as it was last time we saw it? If we can't take it right away, sending units by land from Parsargadae looks like the next best option.

 

[leif erikson]

Getting to Susa in 12 turns is not an attractive option. We have units in Baghdad that can get there in 7 turns. We could send a cat, axe, and Xbow next turn after they've healed a bit more, and send the other Xbow a couple turns later after the archer has been whipped to protect Baghdad. Maybe 4 units will be enough to take it.

We also have Kufah to consider taking as well. I'm not sure we will have enough units to accomplish all this unless we can send some more from London. Can we pop-rush enough from Mecca? Perhaps they can take Kufah while the troops we have in place can go for Susa and Damascus?

If we plan on taking Susa from Arabia, that frees up more units in the south to take the coastal cities, operation clean the beach was it?

As for Medina, aren't we sending a sword and cat there now to see if Medina is as lightly defended as it was last time we saw it? If we can't take it right away, sending units by land from Parsargadae looks like the next best option.

I'm not sure? CP will have to answer this.

 

[DJMGator13]

If we decide it's possible to win in 12 turns, then we will have enough gold from the chop to get us through, and captured cities will provide more than enough gold for upgrading. Therefore, HBR will not break us (indeed, additional production during the last few turns will not be very helpful and we could even go into anarchy if necessary), and it could provide horse archers somewhere(s) where no other unit could get there in time.

HA will take 75 hammers to produce and we don't have enough chariots on hand to make it worthwhile to pay for upgrades. If we were sitting on a stack of chariots (37 hammers) I'd be in favor of HBR.

The path to Susa should be roaded from Persian main core. The question is does the Susa Road connect to Mecca and do all the Arabian cities tie into the main Susa Roadway. Think of Susa as the center of a wagon wheel with the Arabian cities spoked off from it. Susa may open the fastest pathway to Medina.

found that Damascus has 20% culture and is defended by 2 thrice-promoted archers and 2 chariots

Do we have an axe that we can put just out of range from the chariots for a turn to try to lure them out of the city? Or can we bounce AI units by leaving a city empty (as in Civ III)?

 

[Cactus Pete]

I think there are two cities that are going to be the most difficult to get to in a reasonable amount of time, Medina and Susa. If we keep Damascus, then getting to Medina would be less of a problem, and I would argue we should keep it if Medina is heavily defended The screenie below in the spoiler shows an idea of what we might try to do.

I think that all our troops in Galleons currently around Ecbatana should go to the Persepolis area unless it is revealed that we need far less then that. Additionally, the Galleon near London should head for the area south of Baghdad in search for the missing Arabian city. I like taking Haithabu (rather than landing north of it) and using the road inland from that city to find the other Arab city -- where else would the road lead.

In the meantime, the Galleons used to transport the units to Persepolis can begin to form a chain. Thunder Rider to Leif's to the next one, etc. leading to Tarsus. We run this chain twice then all Galleons head to our home shore to begin transporting units to Vikingland except for MP's FL coming down from Damascus, checking on Medina, and ending up near Gordium. Whichever Galleon moves to the west of Tarsus transports units to Gordium and then helps ship them to Medina. From there, whatever is available moves units from our coast to Haithabu, Birka, Nidaros and Uppsala to finish. Maybe, and I definitely agree that we need many of the galleons to head home for the end game, but I'd like freedom to play this as it goes.

I calculated that, with favorable odds, we should be at Susa in 12 turns or so, providing we can use the roads, and that they exist, from Pasargadae north. We may not make Medina in 12, it will be tough as we'll really have to push it. We can look closer at that once we see what is in Medina? I like SCT's suggestion to send Bagdad units that way.

EDIT - I agree with going for HBR once the chop is in. SCT and Gator are both against this, so I'm going to hold off.

Do we have an axe that we can put just out of range from the chariots for a turn to try to lure them out of the city? Or can we bounce AI units by leaving a city empty (as in Civ III)? I think they will come out to counterattack Mecca without provocation.

EDIT2 - I also agree that it would be nice to pop-rush a couple more Galleons.

Tell me where, and I'd sure like to see an updated whip schedule for the other cities.

 

[rrau]

Horse archers aren't good for taking cities, so if it comes down to sending one or two on their own to try to capture a city, I'd think the odds would be that it would fail.

 

[DJMGator13]

After the gold chop comes in we may want to take workers overseas in whatever empty space is available to build roadway ahead of our marching army (just in case).

 

[Cactus Pete]

Seriously considering loading the medic WE within Mecca in with sword and cat and sailing them in one galleon to Medina right away -- at worst, I'll be able to reduce the culture. Then I'd promote the other WE just outside Mecca to a medic and bring it inside the city.

Would like to play some tomorrow night (in about 22 hours).

 

[DJMGator13]

Tell me where, and I'd sure like to see an updated whip schedule for the other cities.

Shannon's the main man on this but I'll take a look at it in the morning.

 

[DJMGator13]

Would like to play some tomorrow night (in about 22 hours).

I know it is hard to wait at this stage of the game but we want to make sure everyone is onboard with the same plan.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Seriously considering loading the medic WE within Mecca in with sword and cat and sailing them in one galleon to Medina right away -- at worst, I'll be able to reduce the culture. Then I'd promote the other WE just outside Mecca to a medic and bring it inside the city.

I actually thought you had already moved the loaded galleon with that purpose but I guess it must have been the empty one. It looks like we are comitted to using the "Arab" galleons for the attack on Medina - otherwise they will be of no use at all now that rrau didn't send them back to London as I suggested.

I'm more immediately concerned with the inland cities. We can reach the perimeter ones more quickly.

Our galleons are the most important asset right now and they should be moving troops rather than sailing around empty. That's why I want to take the opportunity of moving units to Tarsus and Gordium using a couple of galleons leaving Persepolis Beach. If we expect to finish in 12 turns (I'm not sure it's possible) returning these galleons make little sense since they will come too late (10 turns before they are back at Athens). If we really want to return some of these galleons the best course is to drop of the load in Fred's Ferry south of Ecbatana and return it ASAP.

I like taking Haithabu (rather than landing north of it) and using the road inland from that city to find the other Arab city -- where else would the road lead.

This approach seems to be a feasible way to get to the mystery Arabian city.

EDIT - I agree with going for HBR once the chop is in. SCT and Gator are both against this, so I'm going to hold off.

Yes, let's wait some turns and then make the decision when we have more information.

Getting to Susa in 12 turns is not an attractive option. We have units in Baghdad that can get there in 7 turns. We could send a cat, axe, and Xbow next turn after they've healed a bit more, and send the other Xbow a couple turns later after the archer has been whipped to protect Baghdad. Maybe 4 units will be enough to take it.

I think we should probably do this and we need a backup plan to reinforce these units since it's likely that they can't capture the city by themselves. Our Mecca stack will probably be busy capturing Medina, Damascus and Kufah. We need a detailed plan for this WT with a whipping schedule for Mecca and a schedule for deploying units to the mentioned cities. That will also reveal if we have any hope of reinforcing the Susa attack from the north. One problem is that we can only build archers and cats in Mecca because it's not connected to the trade network. We have the same problem with Parsargadea. If we are able to defend Parsagadea reinforcements for Susa attack might come from here.

We also need a plan for Haithabu/Birka/Unknown Arab city. The unknown city should probably be attacked with units coming out of Haithabu. What about Birka. Forces from Ecbatana?

And operation Clean Beach? How many units are needed to clean up Tarsus and Gordium. Can we rely on reinforcements from Persepolis to capture Gordium?

Finally we need a plan for taking Nidaros and Uppsala. Maybe Nidaros first and then survivors + reinforcements to take Uppsala. Or simulatenous attack if we have enough units.

To answer all these questions we need specific numbers - there is no way we can plan this without counting distances, units, whipping schedules etc.

 

[leif erikson]

I'm struggling with how we can get the appropriate number and types of units where they need to go to take the remaining cities. I think we need some more info. We have four Galleon loads of troops headed for the Persian area. How do we decide where they land? I think it would be very helpful for CP to move the Worker in Pasargadae 1 tile east to see if we can see into Persepolis. If not, then move him again 1 tile SE. Once we know what is in Persepolis, we can better decide where to send those four Galleons.

In addition, should we need to reconfigure the Galleon loads in order to send them to cities other than just Persepolis, we can stack them up on the tile where Fred's Ferry is now and change the units around as needed during the next turn.

If we keep Damascus, then getting to Medina would be less of a problem, and I would argue we should keep it if Medina is heavily defended

Perhaps. I think the trade off for this is that we can no longer afford to consider HBR. The advantage is that we can whip units there to assist with Kufah.

I like taking Haithabu (rather than landing north of it) and using the road inland from that city to find the other Arab city -- where else would the road lead.

This is fine with me. I am not convinced there will be a road to the west of Haithabu and then there is time to heal to consider. Although, if it is still a single Warrior, that shouldn't be difficult.

Maybe, and I definitely agree that we need many of the galleons to head home for the end game, but I'd like freedom to play this as it goes.

The ideas presented are suggestions. You will always have all the freedom you need from me to do what you think is best.

SCT and Gator are both against this, so I'm going to hold off.

Yes, that is fine. rrau is not overly excited about the idea either.

I think they will come out to counterattack Mecca without provocation.

Then we need enough to hold them off. It would be a good thing if they do.

Tell me where, and I'd sure like to see an updated whip schedule for the other cities.

Looks like Athens and Ironsite seem to have the best possibility.

After the gold chop comes in we may want to take workers overseas in whatever empty space is available to build roadway ahead of our marching army (just in case).

I thought about this earlier. I don't think we have enough seats on Galleons to do this. Perhaps they should seek out forests near our western cities and keep chopping?

I think we should probably do this and we need a backup plan to reinforce these units since it's likely that they can't capture the city by themselves. Our Mecca stack will probably be busy capturing Medina, Damascus and Kufah. We need a detailed plan for this WT with a whipping schedule for Mecca and a schedule for deploying units to the mentioned cities. That will also reveal if we have any hope of reinforcing the Susa attack from the north. One problem is that we can only build archers and cats in Mecca because it's not connected to the trade network. We have the same problem with Parsargadea.

Perhaps part of the answer to this is to send the Galleon near London with 2 Cats and a Sword to Baghdad for use in reinforcing whatever we send to Susa, the hidden city. Let Athens units go to Haithabu?

Perhaps the Galleons do not all need to return to ports but could go part way back and become parts of chains. That is too far into the future at this point...

 

[Frederiksberg]

Perhaps part of the answer to this is to send the Galleon near London with 2 Cats and a Sword to Baghdad for use in reinforcing whatever we send to Susa, the hidden city. Let Athens units go to Haithabu?

I would like to keep our galleons closer to the homeland now that we have an urgent need to transfer units. A trip to Haithabu and then back to fetch more units seems better than a long trip to Baghdad if we have any other options to reinforce the Susa attack. One problem with the contents of the York galleon is that this ministack will be vulnerable to HA's and it may be risky to keep Haithabu. We really need a WE to counter the HA's. Maybe we can bring a WE from Athens to reinforce?

 

[leif erikson]

To answer all these questions we need specific numbers - there is no way we can plan this without counting distances, units, whipping schedules etc.

How do we organize to put all of this together?

I think we have a pretty good estimate of where we think cities are and a general map situation. We have a list of cities and what has been reported to be in them. We have an analysis of power ratings and populations.

We need updated whipping schedules. What do we need to whip? And then where is the best place to whip that? I think 2 Galleons would be nice as Fred suggested. We will also need Cats to bombard Nidaros and Uppsala. Do we have enough Cats for Susa?

We need details for the shipment of units. What do we need and where do they need to be? If we move units from northern Arabia to attack Medina and Susa, how long will it take to reinforce those areas or do we used locally whipped units? What are the trade-offs?

What else?
Sorry, more questions than answers...

 

[Frederiksberg]

How do we organize to put all of this together?

One approach is to break it down into smaller problems. Say, we analyze separately the Arab WT (Damascus, Medina, Kufah), the Persian WT (Persepolis, Susa, Gordium, Tarsus) and the Viking WT (Haithabu, Birka, Nidaros, Uppsala, Unknown City). The outcome could be that we need to pull forces from one WT to the other (like moving forces from Baghdad towards Susa) but at least this would give us a starting point for a global analysis. For each city we should asses how many units are needed to capture the city and how can they get there.

I think we have a pretty good estimate of where we think cities are and a general map situation. We have a list of cities and what has been reported to be in them. We have an analysis of power ratings and populations.

Does the power rating give us any estimate of what is inside Susa?

We need updated whipping schedules. What do we need to whip? And then where is the best place to whip that? I think 2 Galleons would be nice as Fred suggested. We will also need Cats to bombard Nidaros and Uppsala. Do we have enough Cats for Susa?

Good point with the cats. We have many WE's now. Cats can be whipped in Parsargadea if we can defend the city.

I tested the worker bait in world builder and it seems like it doesn't work. Well, if true, it means I can move the worker onto the farm and find out what's in the city anyway, though I'll be surprised if the Arab archer doesn't take him.

I only tested if the cat would go for the worker given that it had reasonable odds against the unit in the city. No archer in this scenario.

I guess we must attack the cat rather than wait for it to attack us when it will be stronger due to the CR1 promotion and will do additional collateral damage to the sword. If there's another attacking unit in the city, then the odds may be better to defend than to essentially sacrifice the WE.

What should stop the AI from using an attacking unit either way? Will it only attack if this can be done in 1 turn?