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SGOTM 08 - Gypsy Kings

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Sep 9, 2008.

  1. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    Updated wonder list here.

    Plastics is still at least 8 turns away. Considering we already have the required scientist for the corporation, I think we should go for it. Three Gorges Dam might be too much though, considering the time required to build it. *Unless* cash rush it within a few turns.

    Within 4 turns we will be finished Hollywood, Within 8 turns we should hopeufully have Plastics - at which point we should finish our domination win, with 58/62 wonders.

    Since we have at least 8 turns until we'll end, we could fire some of the prophets in Ulundi to slightly increase our odds of generating an engineer. If we generate a prophet I don't think it is worth wasting time sending it to Camulodunum, let alone capturing it in the first place.

    Basically, it all comes down to completing the victory as soon after 8 turns as possible. If it takes longer we can a) save cash to rush Three Gorges, and b) fire Ulundi's prophets to increase odds of engineer.

    Pericles has approx 85 = 6.5% land area. Augustus has 211 = 16%. Half of their lands = (16+6.5)/2 = 11.25%. Added to our current 51% gives us 62% - enough for domination.

    Is it feasible to get Augustus and Pericles Capitulation within 8 turns?

    I also think we should found the corps sooner rather than later - just in case we accidentally go over the dom. limit. It doesn't cost us anything since we have Cristo Redentor.
     
  2. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    I am back....but very busy today and probably tomorrow.

    Sounds like another great set from C63, and thanks for taking charge of the roster.

    Who can/wants to play???
     
  3. hellwitch

    hellwitch Prince

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    IMO we can also go into slavery to be able to whip the last few turns here or there. We are very much over the pop limit so we can whip very heavy
     
  4. Conquistador 63

    Conquistador 63 Deity

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    I'm away from game (and unavailable to play until the deadline), and don't remember details but here are my 2¢:
    . If we fire the priests, which specialists will we hire instead? My thinking was to employ all possible engineers+priests so we could get the GP fastest - but in fact we could add sci/merc/etc. and starve the city to squeeze a turn (or 2?) for next GP generation.

    About the possible prophet/shrine: I sent our scout to check the city, it is coastal and lightly defended: we could set up a galleon chain and take it, building shrine ideally in the same turn we get Augustus/Pericles capitulation.

    About the capitulation itself: hopefully it won't be necessary, but if Augustus/Pericles are too stubborn to capitulate we can also get "self-elected" by UN with our vassals voting for us - provided our own pop is below the "true" self-vote limit.

    Anyways, the real question is: who is going to play next? :) Clock is ticking.
     
  5. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    We might consider starving the city if we thought we could get 2 more great people in the short time left - but I don't think that is possible. Since it doesn't matter if we get an engineer 6 turns from now or 8 or 9 or however many turns from now, we might as well be more patient and increase the chances of it being an engineer. Ie, fire the priests and not replace them at all - simply take longer to get the next person - but proportionately have been running more engineers.

    Or we leave things as they stand and make use of the possible prophet - your point below.

    I'll have a closer look at the situation and see if 2 great persons is possible within a short number of turns.

    Hmm, Galleon chain. I've never done it, but I assume it allows troops to travel across oceans in a single turn? Definitely well worth it if we get a priest.

    The UN is a good idea, but not so easy to time perfectly. I'm not sure we have enough vassals to beat Boudica, Augustus and Pericles though.
    I think vassalising Pericles should happen easily enough - his only reason at the moment is he is "afraid of our enemies". Once we knock Augustus down a few pegs Pericles should be more amenable to our way of life.

    Based on who has played most recently, I guess the turn order would be something like Ron -> Oyzar -> Munro -> AdrianJ. Oyzar has elected to skip - what about you Ron? Munro? We still have something like 10 days, to play what I guess will be the final turnset.
     
  6. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    Subsequent Great Person requires 2200 GPP.

    Ulundi:

    Hiring all specialists in Ulundi will generate 152 GPPpt on the first 2 turns, with -6 each turn thereafter as population starves. After 10 turns it will have starved to size 12 where it can run 8 specialists without starving.

    It gets 13 raw GPPpt free from wonders and SoL.

    Something like:
    152 + 152 + 146 + 140 + 134 + 128 + 122 + 116 + 110 + 104 + 68 from here on.

    This is 1304 + n*68 GPP. It would take us a total of 6+14+10 = 30 turns to generate the current GP and 2200 GPP required for another, very random, great person in Ulundi.

    If we switch to Pacifism it would be 1956 + n*102, requiring only 4+3+10 = 17 turns total for the next 2 GPs.

    Hariharalaya:

    Hari already has 1582 GPP invested. It gets 5 raw GPPpt from wonders and SoL, is currently size 16. If we aimed to starve it down to size 4 where it can support 3 specialists it will generate:
    53 + 53 + 50 + 47 + 44 + 41 + 38 + 35 + 32 + 29 + 26 + 23 + 20 + 14 from here.

    This is 1582+491+14*n requiring 13+9 = 22 turns to produce a GPerson with quite a high likelihood of being a prophet.

    Under Pacifism it won't even take that long! To generate the required 618 GPP would only take approx 7 turns of starving
    106 + 106 + 100 + 94 + 88 + 82 + 74 = 650.

    Do we include a temporary switch to Pacifism?

    (Did I mention I like numbers?)
     
  7. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    Nice analysis on the GPP Adrian.

    The Roster order is

    munro - waiting
    mystyfly - waiting
    Rusten - waiting
    Conquistador63 - just played...Well done you warmonger!!!
    adrianj - waiting
    hellwitch - waiting
    oyzar - skipped by request
    Ronnie1 - UP NOW Got it...PPP in a day or 2
    da_Vinci - in reserve
     
  8. Munro

    Munro Deity

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    Very nice play hw and C63. :goodjob:

    I think we should aim to generate the next great person in Ulundi ASAP (even though this means increasing the chance of getting a great prophet) - so that we have time to get him to Camolodnum in the event that he does turn out to be the religious sort.

    6 galleons should be enough for the galleon chain, and we need to move to get them in place (or at least the farthest one in place) in the next turn or two.

    We should also have a 7th galleon standing by outside Camolodnum with some extra troops inside (in addition to the 2 troops we could transport in the galleon chain along with the prophet) for which we could use the galleon currently west of vandal (and send a couple of units from the mainland campaign, to meet up with it on Boudica's coastline the turn before, since we have OB with her).

    And send a couple of airships down into range the turn we pop the GP as well (if it is indeed a GP). Obviously a GE would be a lot less trouble. :)
     
  9. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    I was thinking the opposite.

    We have at least 7 turns before Hari will pop a great person (assuming a switch to pacifism), which has a >80% likelihood of being a prophet. I think we could even let Hari pop the next great person - and have Ulundi slow down a little, slightly increasing its odds of producing an engineer.

    The game will continue for at least another 10 turns I would imagine, given that the corporation from the Plastics tech is already available with our leftover great scientist. Should be enough time to get Hari's Prophet to Camulodunum.

    *If* Hari doesn't pop a prophet, then by all means make Ulundi speed up.

    If the game continues for more than 10 turns (eg, Augustus not willing to capitulate) then we'll try our best to build Three Gorges ASAP. Start looking now for a city site that has lots of population to whip, forge/factory to make rushing cheaper, and forests to chop is a bonus. Oh, and situated on a river of course.
     
  10. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    1st look at the save and 1st go at a PPP.

    We have no GE's, and very low odds in both GPP cities of getting 1 let alone 2 for both corps. We do have very high odds of getting a GProphet so I will plan on taking Camulodunum and build a shrine there.

    We have a Great General, no real use for him this late except super medic maybe???

    Military
    Obviously need to head straight for Rome as that is the only wonder city and makes Augustus most likely to capitulate.

    Any ideas on how to draw out those Cavs in Ravenna I would welcome...other than that it looks like a pretty straight forward bombard/suicide/capture operation.

    Galleon chain the GProphet + MP's to Camul...the attack force can come from closer obviously...might whip a Marine or 2 to make it easy.

    The biggest issue I see that needs micromanaging is the GP issue....I think I like Adrian's idea switching to Pacifism and trying to get a Prophet quickly out of Hari and firing all the priests in Ulundi to try and get a GE there.

    City management and Builds
    I never really use cruise missiles....please tell me best use???
    I see no reason to really build units on original mainland, they wont get anywhere in time, except to escort GP to Camulodunum. Maybe the cities farthest west that can get units to Rome quickly, but most of the Galleons will be headed straight for chain duty to Camul.

    3 Gorges
    If we decide to go there, the city building Hollywood is the best, Ulundi would better if we could work all the mines, but that obviously slows down the GPP.

    Please give me some feed back...

    EDIT: Do Projects count???? Manhattan, etc...

    Tech path after Industrialism....Plastics>Fission(just in case they still don't want to capitulate:D)>??
     
  11. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    Some thoughts:

    Three Gorges

    Once we research Industrialism, Ulundi can build an Industrial Park. Definitely do this, and cash rush it on turn 2 of the build. This will help a little bit to produce an engineer.

    With a little bit of starvation, Ulundi can produce 150+ :hammers: per turn. With the Kremlin built, each :hammers: of Three Gorges (1750 total) costs 6:gold: to rush. After 4 turns of building it is not unreasonable that we would have managed to save (1750-4*150)*6 = 6900:gold: to have Three Gorges complete within a total of 5 turns.

    However, 5 extra turns is more than our current wonders-per-turn target of 259/58. So unless you can scrape enough money together ((1750-3*15)*6 = 7800 :gold:) to rush the dam in 3 turns, it isn't worth it. Unless of course the military situation requires you to take that much time.

    Regarding Hari and Ulundi generating Great People

    First switch to Pacifism.

    Starve Hari by assigning everyone as specialists. Unfortunately it will still take 5 turns to generate something: (ie, starve for 4 turns gives: 1582 + 106 + 106 + 100 + 94 = 1988:gp:) followed by just priests (1988 + 14 = 2002) for the remainder.

    In the meantime, Ulundi needs to slow itself down so it doesn't overtake Hari. Assign just 6 engineers for 5 turns (1464 +5*84 = 1884), and then by turn 6 it will also have the industrial park so it can hire 9 engineers. Do it for 3 turns (1884 + 3*111 = 2217), and within 8 turns of now we'll be completing Plastics and have another great person. If we're lucky, it'll be an engineer.

    The odds of it being an engineer will be approx 42%
    (Total engineer :gp: so far = 1464 * 0.28 = 410. Total at end = 410 + 6*9*5 + 9*9*3 = 923. As proportion of 2200 = 923/2200 = 42%. I have way too much free time)

    Corporations

    Another thing to add to your PPP - at the same time as the switch to Pacifism, also switch to Free Market. Found the 4 corps that we can get right now. If things go pear shaped and we accidentally get the domination win sooner than expected, it would be much better to have those 4 corps added to our tally.

    If you do choose to do this, take a note of how much extra it costs us compared to state property. It will likely cost us more, so be sure to switch back to state property the very next turn. With Cristo Redentor, this is possible.

    Edit:
    Cross post with Ron's edit.
    Projects do NOT count to our wonder score.
    Techs after Industrialism - might as well head for satellites -> computers -> robotics for the space elevator. Although I really hope it won't come to that. You'll probably have everyone dominated the old fashioned, no vassals way by then.

    Edit2: For that matter, after Plastics you could switch to 0% research to save gold for 3 gorges, and maybe even turn up the culture slider a tad to expand newly conquered cities' borders. The only thing on our mind at that point should be to claim the victory. Gold would be more useful for cash rushing units than teching up to Robotics.
     
  12. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    Thanks Adrian....

    More ideas to speed it up please...

    I want to be clear about our target number also...I count 56 wonders available with 1 more GP and 57 with 2 GP's.

    56/258=.21705
    57/262=.21755

    I am not sure we have time to get 57...and think we might be better served by going for 56 in less than 258 turns.

    HELP PLEASE!!!
     
  13. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    I guess it all depends on how fast we can take Domination. If it can be done on turn 259, then that is the best option.

    By turn 258 we should have Plastics tech. We can then found the extra corporation with the scientist on turn 259, and then end it there. With no Camulodunum Shrine or Engineer, this equals 57/259 = 0.2201.

    What if for example the GP isn't yet at Camulodunum, and is en route, to land within 3 turns. Then we have 58/262 = 0.2214.

    And then another 3 turns from there we could build Three Gorges. 59/265 = 0.2226.

    Popping an engineer from Ulundi is just a bonus. It should happen fast enough that we won't need to wait for it.
     
  14. Conquistador 63

    Conquistador 63 Deity

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    Away from game so take my ideas with a ton of salt.

    Bear in mind victory is awarded t+1 from when we "reach" it. So if Plastics completed t258, its corp founded t259 and victory comes t260.

    Basic scenario: considering just one more GP (not 2) and no 3GD:
    . 47 wonders done
    . 3 under construction (up to t254)
    . 1 to be captured (Rome)
    . 4 corps (GPs and techs ready)
    . 1 corp depending on tech(Plastics)/GS ready (up to t258)
    . 1 corp or shrine depending on 1 GE/GPro
    Total 57/260: 0.219231

    Scenario 2: same as above + 1 GP. I respect adrianj's math but I'm concerned about the hit on our finances from adopting pacifism (unit cost + loss of FR science bonus), from the starving cities, and its effect on our expected completion date of plastics. Also there is increased uncertainty on the type of GP to be generated. But if we believe we can make it before t264 (final date: t+1!) then go for it.
    Total 58/264:0.219697
    Scenario 3: same as above + 3GD: highly improbable IMO but if it would mean 59/268=0.220149 then it could be worth.
     
  15. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    All of this assumes we have Rome, and Augustus is ready to capitulate within 8 turns. If that is looking to be more like 10 or 12 turns, then cash rushing three gorges is a good option.

    You're right about the hit pacifism will take to our economy. My suggestion is this:
    1. Assign pretty much our entire population for max gold. Build wealth in most places, and any tile that's not producing 3+ commerce becomes a merchant. Starve cities if necessary.

    2. Assess. Up the research slider, and under current civics, how fast can we get Plastics?

    3. If it is less than 6 or 7 turns, AND we can dominate Augustus in that time, then stay in Free Religion and leave things as they are. Take the victory in 7 or 8 turns from now.

    4. If it hasn't changed much, or we don't think we can take out Augustus that fast, switch to Pacifism. With our whole population generating gold I believe that Plastics will still be possible within 8 turns, if not 8, then 9.

    It all depends on Augustus... What if he still takes another 15 turns to die? We'll be annoyed that we didn't even try to get both an engineer and prophet.

    Oh, and as an aside, I edited the wonder list again. I had forgotten to include the Palace wonder. We actually currently have 48. Also evident from our current wonder score of 240. (240/5 = 48)
     
  16. Ronnie1

    Ronnie1 Deity

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    It's Done....T163

    It took a little longer than we had hoped, but Augustus WOULD NOT CAPITULATE, the bastard. I took his last city in 1760, Pericles Vassaled the same turn after Augustus was dead. Took Bibracte from Boudica because it was there, and razed one of Joao's 2 cities for the same reason.

    Never got the GE, so didn't found either of the GE corps obviously, but we did get All the holy cities and 3 Gorges.

    Domination Victory in 1765.

    Here is the Final Save and the autosave at the start of T162(last turn played).
     
  17. AlanH

    AlanH Mac addict, php monkey Moderator Hall of Fame Staff Supporter GOTM Staff

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    Well done Gypsy Kings :goodjob:

    You can go and look at the other team threads now, but please don't post in them if they haven't finished yet.
     
  18. Munro

    Munro Deity

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    Nice work Ronnie!! :goodjob:

    So how did we do against the others ...
     
  19. oyzar

    oyzar Have quit civ/forums

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    I was going to post the same thing...

    Also what score did we get exactly?

    295/263=1,121673

    Well below the top placing teams, where did our strategy diverge from theirs(or was it just rushed/sloppy execution that did it)?

    If i have counted correctly we are 5th.

    As of now i am not sure if i will participate in the next one, it depends largely on the settings and how i feel about civ then...
     
  20. adrianj

    adrianj Deity

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    I'm quite pleased with our effort, and I had a lot of fun.

    Great work with the finish Ronnie.

    I'm looking forward to the next one :)
     

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