SGOTM 10 - Smurkz

Churchill is now pleased with us, and still he won't trade Astronomy.
Not sure if you meant any connection between these two, but in case you did. Pleased is generally nothing special as far as tech trades go. At Friendly, all AI will trade anything at any time. Below Friendly, they won't. They don't trade any easier at Pleased than at Cautious (unless they are Tokugawa or the like who don't trade at Cautious at all). Astro is a monopoly tech for Churchill, so he isn't going to trade it away until either you get him to Friendly, or at least one other nation gets it.

Spawn the additional GA with one scientist, bulb PP with the second, and save engineer for... something. Oh, and another catapult is built in Delhi.
Are you considering SoL? I haven't followed all the details of the discussion. Maybe your continent is simply too small to make it worth the hammers. Rushing OU in a hammer-poor super-science city is another useful idea, though I see Seaside does have a few mines up.

Is it really worthwhile to keep throwing EP at Gandhi at this point?
 
One other thing - you can get Constitution in 2 turns rather easily by emphasizing Scientists in a few places. The extra boost from Representation in your SE is not to be underestimated. I got it by switching workshops and the engineer in Moscow to scientists, and switch the engineer in St Pete to scientist. It will delay the universities slightly, but the boost from Representation is way way way bigger.
 
Nice work, BL! :goodjob: And the GP pops are working out just as you'd hoped (although I was hoping for a 2nd Great Eng ;)). I haven't opened the save but here are some thoughts. We should probably wait as long as possible to trade stuff to give more time for somebody to tech Printing Press for us. In fact, after the switch to Representation we might think about just teching it ourselves so we could get that second academy up sooner. I'm not sure how to analyze the tradeoffs, though.

Good point about speeding Constitution, Niklas. I think we would have noticed that ourselves during the pause. You know more about the SGOTM rules than I regarding non-player commentary; let's not jeopardize our all but guaranteed Gold Medal! :mischief: Regarding SoL, yeah, I've been pushing for that since we'll have 8 mainland cities (and 2 more once we nuke Gandhi), the copper bonus, and our Industrious bonus for wonders. Moscow should be able to crank it out in perhaps 25 turns. We're planning to save the Eng for Mining Inc since we have 2 gold, 2 silver, 3 iron, 1 copper.

It's a little early but we should keep a possible switch out of Mercantilism in mind. That would be useless now since everybody else is also in Merc'lism but that will likely change once Astro spreads around. It would be nice if the timing is such that we could change before the end of the (second) GA. As for tech trading, I'm thinking that Constitution might be better than Printing. The former is worth more beakers (and we may need more for the trades) and the latter opens both Democ and SciMeth. I think letting the AIs have Const is less of a threat to our plans than giving them Printing since we want to get Physics first and would like to delay the AI switching to Emancipation (or even possibly beating us to SoL).

[Edit: On the EPs, yeah, I've been wondering what to do about that. We should probably build a couple spies to steal Gandhi's treasury since we have the points to do that, and probably post a spy in St Pete for counterespi. If I understand things correctly he shouldn't be able to steal techs from us with the points he likely has (similar to what we have against him, I would assume) so we can probably back off. The question is, where would we direct them? Last time I checked there were 1 or 2 fairly weak targets where we could at least find out what they were teching, but it's unlikely we'll be able to ever do much more than that against anybody. I'll feel safer about Gandhi stealing a tech once we've traded Constitution around.]
 
I'm a "dedicated" lurker, I haven't peeked into any other threads (or even the graphs on the submission page) so there's nothing to worry about. I could even ask to be added as an official member, it's not like you have a surplus of those, but I fear you would start expecting things from me if I did. :p
 
Dudes, Alan has posted his traditional 1-month-to-go warning, but without the usual "How's it going? Are you going to make it?" inquiries. He's not in a good mood ;) and so I tremble at the thought of incurring his wrath, but do we want to dare ask about a deadline extension? We have a long way to go and not much manpower.
 
I'm short on time so I'll just make some observations--sorry for poor organization. Roosevelt has Chemistry (he can research Steel) and will trade Gunpowder and Economics (but we have nothing to offer). Churchill will trade Econ (but we have nothing to offer). Nobody else has anything else we want (though Mao has Gunpowder--won't trade).

If our galley keeps going west he could reach the sheep island in 5 more turns. He could then transfer our explorer to check out some island interiors while the galley fills in some black coastal areas. There's quite a bit of land out there; as BL says, there are no eye opener sites, but several are definitely worthwhile and we can get to many by galley (safely from the south of Gandhi). I would like to get them while we can.

Broberg's borders pop in 7 turns; that should hook up our copper and furs.

We're currently making 305 bpt at 100% research. At 0% we make 93 bpt (from specialists). When we get Constitution in 2 turns and revolt to Representation we'll pretty much double our 0% beaker output, giving us right around 400 bpt at 100%. Moscow's university finishes in 3 turns, so that will help beaker production, and more uni's are on the way, plus the academies.

Keeping that in mind, we can currently research Printing in 7 turns, Democracy in 14, Chemistry in 9, but we'll soon be in better shape. We have 4 more turns on this GA and then we'll have another 10 if we burn a Great Sci. So, bulb Printing or research it? If we bulb, no waiting to start Democracy. If we research, we'll have 1 extra Great Sci to settle and we'll get our academies a little sooner. If we settle the Sci in Moscow we'll get an extra 9 base bpt with multiplier of 1 +0.2(2monas) +0.25(lib) +0.25(uni) +0.5(acad) = 9*2.2 = 20 bpt. An observatory will roughly take up the slack when the mona's go obsolete, and we'll later have Oxford, etc., but let's say that having that extra settled Sci gives 20 bpt for at least 250 turns when we'll need beakers, or 5000 beakers, vs the bulbing yield of something like 2300 (???--sorry I forgot to check). We also get an extra hammer per turn. But not bulbing Printing means delaying Democracy by probably 8 turns (since we'll be out of the Golden Age before it finishes), during which time we won't get those 8 free specialists. If they're scientists with typical 1.5 beaker multipliers that's roughly 8sci * 6bpt * 1.5 * 8turns = 576 lost beakers. But we get our academies a little sooner, so that helps. Hmmmm. Since we're in no huge rush to get Economics or Gunpowder or Chem, and we'll have Constitution to trade soon if we need to, I lean toward teching Printing by hand. If we count the extra hammer as 2 beakers I figure that settling will net us something like 2000-3000 extra beakers over the course of the game.

Our maintenance is pretty hefty--breakeven is at 30% research. We definitely need courthouses. And the Forbidden Palace sooner rather than later.

Those Gandhi galleys caravels could interfere with Seaside's or Broberg's seafood. Not much we can do about it.

[While writing the above....
Oh crap. I'm writing this on my laptop and while writing I apparently bumped a notepad onto the keyboard of the computer with Civ up. Before realizing that, I was scrolling with the mouse and noticing the screen was rather jerky--the notepad must have been pressing on some key repeatedly. Anyway, when I figured out the problem and moved the notepad, after a delay, a worker wiggled around, the one on the Copperville copper. I don't think it actually moved, so we're probably OK, but I'll need to tell Alan.]
 
Backwards Logic hasn't posted the save to the Progress and Results page, so I think he is planning to play some more turns. I don't have a problem with that.
 
Yea, I'm playing through the GA at the least, since I know what to do with the GP situation on a per turn basis. Not that anybody else doesn't, just I'm intimately familiar with it.

Thanks Niklas, though we may not need to if we decide to not bulb Printing Press. If we don't an academy in Seaside would be our next option. I really can't play on until we decide what we're doing with the GS's. If we don't bulb, I'd want that academy in Seaside this turn before playing on. The academy there is worth roughly 25 beakers a turn at 100%, and since the scientist's direct output won't be affected by the slider it offers a more consistent beaker income than Moscow does. For comparison's sake, Moscow at 100% brings in 26 beakers a turn and at 0% it brings in 7 beakers - and that's running rep. We have to come to a decision on this now before I play on.

I ran another test to test your theory that when Broberg's borders pop fur and copper will be connected to the trade network. This is not true unfortunately. Which brings us back to the SoL discussion. We're not going to have copper unless we trade for it, which looks impossible. From what we know, there's three sources of it on the entire map (yea, I looked around) - we have one, another is in the frozen tundra north of Mao (and looks borderline inaccessible) and the third is on an island accessible only post Astronomy. Without copper and using our post GA numbers, SoL is going to take 31 turns to complete. This can be rushed to 14 with an engineer. We'll have seven cities that can benefit from SoL (Moscow, St. Pete, Broberg, Seaside, Horsetropolis, Copperville, and Yet-To-Be-Named City). Let's assume we run scientists in each city with the free spec we get, and in rep each spec is worth 6 beakers base. Factoring in multipliers below:

Moscow: Library, University, Oxford, 2 Monasteries, Academy = +220% - 13.2 beakers
St. Pete: Library, University, 1 Monastery = +60% - 9.6 beakers
Broberg: Library, University = +50% - 9 beakers
Seaside: Library, University, 1 Monastery, Academy = +110% - 6.6 beakers
Horsetropolis: Library, University = +50% - 9 beakers
Copperville/Yet-To-Be-Named: Library = +25% - 7.5 beakers each *2 = 14 beakers

That totals 61.4 extra beakers / turn from the turn of completing SoL. Democracy costs 4233 beakers. To pay itself back, not including the turns building it, we're looking at 68 turns. Granted we'll get observatories for another 25% in a few select cities (Moscow, Seaside, and St. Pete come to mind), but we're losing the monasteries shortly thereafter. Is it worth the hammers, beakers AND burning the GE on (which means no Mining Inc later)? I would argue it doesn't, especially since it looks like copper isn't getting hooked up until Astronomy is in. If we're not going for SoL, then I'd put off Democracy (even perhaps trading for it) when the time comes to run US. I don't think the detour of Democracy is really going to help us all that much. I'd much rather use the beakers for a tech that's actually on the path of nukes. Niklas, if you could spare one other moment, I'd love your opinion on this.

The time to tech things numbers you have are a bit off, since the game doesn't factor in the fact we can't run 100% for the next 20 turns or so. We run out of gold in 4 turns, which will cause us to go back to 0% for a while. For the next 10 turns, we'll be able to exchange 3 turns of 0% for one turn of 100% using our current GA figures. I've also calculated rep is worth 115 beakers / turn to us. Using our current 0% and 100% figures and figuring on 3 turns 0% for one turn 100%, we average 261 beakers / turn. The treasury reflected numbers below:

PP - 9.26 turns -> 10
Chemistry - 10.42 -> 11
Democracy - 16.21 -> 17

All of that is assuming our economy stays around the 3 : 1 rule. If we start running 4 : 1 (certainly feasible post GA and if we continue to settle overseas), the time to tech things jumps considerably.

I'm hesitant on trading Constitution around. It puts the AI's slightly closer to Emancipation than PP does since it costs more and helps their teching a bit more since neither Roosevelt or Churchill have enough mature cottages that would benefit from PP (We can't trade Constitution to the AI's that don't have Nationalism yet). While no civ in our game has representation as their favorite civic, I think it's safe to assume they'll flip to it as soon as they get it since it's vastly superior to Hereditary Rule. Everyone is still in mercantilism too, so it's not like they wouldn't be getting the beaker bonus either.

I was kicking around a few ideas in my head and figured I'd post them here. With the realization that our economy is in the crapper and combining that with Niklas's suggestion of burning the GE on OU somewhere, I was curious as to how bad Emancipation will hurt us. I wasn't 100% sure of the mechanics of it, but a search revealed we get +1 unhappy per civ that runs Emancipation while we don't. Is this still accurate? If so, Seaside could deal with the Emancipation issues for the rest of the game in all likelihood. Figure Gandhi won't make it to Democracy any time soon, which leaves us four civs that could run it equaling 4 unhappiness. Once we flip out of Islam and the harbor finishes, we'll be even health wise (thus no starving) and at our happy cap, so we'd need to find four happiness somewhere to safeguard the city from it. One would be furs, the second the Islamic temple, and the other 2 from Free Religion, plus maybe one or two other happy buildings to give us a cushion. Would we need Globe here then? Probably not since we're running specs here for the foreseeable future and not going to be drafting for a long while, if we even make it that far (I personally never draft in my offline games). Oxford post GA in Seaside would complete in 19 turns or so. Instead we could have the GE rush it, and we'd have 100% beakers in a city that wouldn't be affected by the slider as much. As I pointed out with the academy build, Seaside is the better bet during the 0% stage and only lags behind Moscow slightly during 100%. We'd be in rep, so that's 33 more beakers that would get multiplied further that Moscow couldn't get. Unfortunately, as I said earlier during the rushing of SoL option, this costs us our GE for Mining Inc, since building Oxford manually is out of the question - 19 turns to build post GA, and that's if I yank four specialists to work the hammer tiles, not to mention it needs a university built as well. That's roughly 29 turns of running four less specs in our NE city, which translates to 696 base beakers and GP points. We'd make up the beakers before the end of the game, but the GP points are pretty much all lost. Moscow can build it quicker (7 turns post GA) and during the 100% turns can produce an amount of beakers that competes with Seaside, but the 0% turns are pretty much a total loss here which is why I brought it up for discussion.

Oh yea, EP's. Yea, we should probably swing them elsewhere, but concentrate them on one AI so we can see their research. No idea who though, though I'm leaning toward Churchill. Although keeping them on Gandhi would drive the cost up of his espionage missions against us, so we may want to leave them their just so he can't run as many missions.

So yea, this was supposed to be the quick part of our game... Anyway, we need a consensus on our tech path post Constitution and our GP usage. Some more National Wonder discussion would be welcome as well. Well, my brain is mush right now, so if it seems I talked in circles for this book of a post that's going to be my excuse.
 
Is it worth the hammers, beakers AND burning the GE on (which means no Mining Inc later)? I would argue it doesn't, especially since it looks like copper isn't getting hooked up until Astronomy is in. If we're not going for SoL, then I'd put off Democracy (even perhaps trading for it) when the time comes to run US. I don't think the detour of Democracy is really going to help us all that much. I'd much rather use the beakers for a tech that's actually on the path of nukes. Niklas, if you could spare one other moment, I'd love your opinion on this.
I completely agree with your assessment. I'm not even convinced that you will ever need US, and if you do it will be long after you will be able to trade for Democracy.
 
Well, golly darn. :mad: I don't understand why the copper wouldn't be hooked up. It'll be accessible via galley without passing through Gandhi's culture--what's missing? Without the copper bonus, yeah, we're sort of SooL on SoL. I was not advocating using our sole GE on SoL, and agree we need to save that for Mining Inc.

The times I gave for researching were for "currently ... at 100%." Sorry if that wasn't clear. I'm not thrilled with trading away Constitution, either, but Printing Press isn't going to get us anything other than Gunpowder, if we're lucky (see below).

Astronomy (1600 base beakers on normal speed)--note that we have some beakers already invested
Printing Press (1200) --> Replaceable Parts (1600)
Gunpowder (1000) --> Chemisty (2000)
Education (1400) --> Liberalism (1200) and Economics (1000)
Nationalism (1600) --> Constitution (2000) and Military Tradition (1800)

Once Broberg's borders pop, please check on the copper just to be sure, but assuming we're out of luck and that we're dropping the Democ/SoL idea, what's our tech plan? Beeline to Railroad? We'll need Gunpowder for that, although once we get the horses back (pretty soon) it might be better to build stables somewhere and then a few knights rather than muskets. If we beeline to RR then we could skip Printing Press and wait for someone else to tech it, while we research the cheaper Gunpowder. I don't know what to do about trades. We could tech Printing and probably get Gunpowder, but nothing else other than some gold. We could trade away Constitution for Gunpowder and Economics, but that helps the AI even more, and what we'd really like is to get Chemistry and Astro, too. Just for discussion, should we research Military Tradition next to buy time for the AIs to research other stuff and/or become more willing to trade it so that we could get more benefit when we trade Constitution (or perhaps trade MilTrad instead)? Astro and Econ don't really do us much good until all the AIs have them and switch out of Merc'lism. If we went the MilTrad route, ideally we'd be able to trade it or Constitution for Gunpowder, Econ, Printing, and Astro. FWIW, next on the Scientist bulbing list after Printing is Chemistry, though I still prefer settling over bulbing for now.

It's frustrating that our economy is so weak. Courthouses will help but it's really the lack of foreign trade that's killing us, and that won't change until the AIs drop Mercantilism. I assume that'll happen when they get Astro and/or Economics, right? Putting Oxford in Seaside would be nice for the many reasons noted, but [edit: if we use the Great Eng to rush it] then we might never get Mining, Inc. If Moscow doesn't get Oxford then it would be open for Heroic Epic, which would be pretty awesome.

Just for grins, what about revolting to slavery toward the end of the GA, but leaving enough time to do our final revolt (I have no idea what the required interval is)? We could whip a university in Seaside and maybe save enough turns that building Oxford by hand wouldn't be too painful. Yeah, we lose a lot of beakers and GPPs and can't run Caste System. We could also whip stuff in several secondary cities (uni's, banks...); they're not going to pop GPs for quite awhile anyway. Even with the ton of specialists we're running, most of our beakers are coming from commerce, so maybe we need to concentrate on economic buildings. They'll be even more important once we get foreign trade going. I don't really think that going to slavery is a good idea, but ...

While we're talking about civics, were we going to stick with Bureaucracy after the GA, or switch to Free Speech (+100% culture, +2 commerce from towns)? If Moscow isn't going to build the SoL then Bureau becomes less attractive. We may not have enough towns yet to make Free Speech optimal, but the culture boost would make the Hermitage in St Pete even less important.

On the GPs, we're saving our 1730 GE, and have a 1738 GS and 1740 GS. Next will be 1752 (6 turns) in Seaside (see BL's GP schedule.) If you buy the argument that we should wait to do more tech trading, then we should not bulb Printing and instead should use the 2 GS's to build academies in Seaside and Moscow. [Edit: Oops, forgot we need to burn a GP for the 2nd GA starting in 1748. OK, delay one academy until 1752.]

One other detail: Roosevelt is pleased with our civics, but -2 because of our religion. I don't know how/when the game computes diplo relations, but at the end of the GA we could drop Islam first (before changing our civics) and hope to get those 2 relations points back, which should put us at Friendly with Roose and help our trading. Then we do the civics swap the same turn. The game mechanics probably don't work that way but it's something to think about.

[Edit: In BL's post 406, the hypothetical beaker bonus from SoL in Moscow and Seaside didn't include the base 1 in the multiplier. Moscow should be 19.2 (not 13.2) and Seaside 12.6 (not 6.6), (and the two last cities total 15 rather than 14 if you want to be really picky) so the total benefit assuming 7 mainland cities is 74.4 instead of 61.4. Not a huge difference. Let's not completely forget about the SoL; once we get copper, it might be worthwhile to partially build for the gold payoff if we can get Democ on the cheap.]
 
Flipping to slavery in an SE while running Rep during a GA... Uhm, no :p. Whipping one or two buildings is hardly worth the GP and beaker trade-off. Also the interval is five turns between revolts.

Tech path wise, I'm leaning towards PP because it can get us both Gunpowder and Economics via trade (I tested it out). We'd also get +5 gold / turn @ 0% since we'll have five villages by then. PP also opens up Corporation (by trading for Economics) and Chemistry (by trading for Gunpowder), two paths that we need for Mining Inc. The sooner we get Mining Inc up, the sooner we can get the benefits from it, but see below. In the meantime all of our cities will need courthouses to lessen the corp costs. To me, military tradition is another unnecessary detour - we're diverting beakers to a tech that really doesn't help us in our ultimate goal of acquiring nukes asap. There's two paths we need for nukes - the Rocketry path and the Fission path, and ideally we tech up one and trade for the other. Military Tradition doesn't fall on any of them. To outline what we really need:

Rocketry: Gunpowder/Printing Press/Replaceable Parts/Rifling/Astronomy/Scientific Method/Physics/Chemistry/Steel/Artillery/Rocketry
Fission: Astronomy/Printing Press/Scientific Method/Physics/Electricity/Fission

The first four techs on the Fission path are also in the Rocketry path and one of them happens to be Physics, so short-term being first to Physics should be our priority. The extra scientist will come in handy, especially considering the next tech path.

This path is purely optional, but given our focus on corps looks to be necessary. For RR, after Gunpowder, Chem, PP, and RP, we'd need Steam Power/Steel/RR. For Sid's Sushi, after Gunpowder, Chem, PP, SciMeth, we'd need Biology and Medicine. So to really get nukes asap, we need to focus on the techs we actually need for this and trade for the extraneous ones. Techs like Assembly Line, Military Tradition, Democracy, and Flight are all not needed though useful in their own way. We shouldn't spend any beakers on these techs - we're pretty limited with our income as it is right now.

Civics-wise, I'm leaning towards staying in Bureaucracy because Moscow is really the only hammer strong city in the empire. Plus with the two gold sources we end up running a profit out of Moscow financially plus the substantial hammer boost, necessary for Oxford and Ironworks later if in fact that's what we're still doing. Also should we build Oxford here, the city really needs to stay in Bureau to make that 100% bonus substantial enough. It's still vastly superior to Free Speech at this point, especially when we have no towns to speak of that would benefit from it. The culture is nice, but the only city that really needs it is St. Pete. I've been watching the culture in the city on a per turn basis. Since Taj was rushed, we've been sitting at 21% Indian in the city. There's no doubt we slowed the culture advance, but if we reversed it remains to be seen. I'm skeptical we reverse it enough to pressure Bombay's tiles instead of our own so the value of Free Speech and / or Hermitage is a relative unknown.

As for our final GA turn revolt, why would we need to get Roosevelt to friendly before the GA is out? And we can do religion and civic swaps simultaneously, so I'm curious as to why you'd do two separate revolts. In fact, we only need one revolt period, and that's Pac -> FR.
 
As for our final GA turn revolt, why would we need to get Roosevelt to friendly before the GA is out? And we can do religion and civic swaps simultaneously, so I'm curious as to why you'd do two separate revolts. In fact, we only need one revolt period, and that's Pac -> FR.

You can change religion and civics in the same turn, but they're still separate revolts--see? If we could get rid of the -2 with Roose by changing religion to None--a big IF, since the game may recompute diplomatic standings only once every turn--then we'd get to Friendly, which might get us some advantage in trading, or at least let us beg for some gold. There might be no benefit, but I figured if it didn't cost us anything we could try it. As for not needing a religion revolt at all when going to Free Religion, I assumed, or at least worried, that we'd have to explicitly choose no religion in order to get the Free Religion benefits and nullify all religious diplomacy points. I take it that's not true? As for only needing Pac -> FR, is a switch to Free Market out of the question even if the AIs drop Mercantilism? Eh, maybe we need to wait until Corporations to make it worthwhile.

I've got a big deadline next Monday so my input will be pretty minimal for the next week. You guys hash it out. I hope I stirred up the analysis process with my "creative" ideas. Good luck!
 
I was curious as to how bad Emancipation will hurt us. I wasn't 100% sure of the mechanics of it, but a search revealed we get +1 unhappy per civ that runs Emancipation while we don't. Is this still accurate?
I'm afraid it is wildly inaccurate. :)

Emancipation unhappiness is a bit more complex than that. Basically the calculation goes like this:

emPeople = the sum of the population of all cities of all nations in Emancipation.
totPeople = the sum of the population of all cities in the world.
emUnhappiness = (emPeople/totPeople) * 0.4 * cityPop

Or in other words, for each city it's a percentage of the city size, capped at 40%, but can never actually reach 40% since that would mean everyone (including you) would be in Emancipation. If you have 20% of the world population (not unlikely on this map) and everyone else is in Emancipation, you'd thus get 0.8*0.4= 32% of city size. Note that this in most cases is less than the "+1 unhappy per nation in Emancipation" that BL speculated above.
 
Thanks Niklas. I didn't think it was as simple as what I had and I'm glad that got clarified. However the same conclusion can still be reached - the unhappiness penalty is at least manageable. So back to the National Wonder discussion: Do we really need Globe in Seaside? Probably not. Oxford could go there, but we couldn't realistically build it until after 1770 when our merchant pops for Sid's (Depending on our tech situation, I may leave this one a scientist and force the next one to be a merchant. No sense leaving a merchant idling for 100 + years if we don't have the techs to use him). All of the turns prior to that are GA turns, so removing specs to work hammer tiles is not appealing, especially since this is the only period where we can get a 200% GP bonus. I think we have a little time on this - we can't build OU until the university requirement is met anyway.

Tech situation - XC - what's your opinion on Printing Press after Constitution? Niklas, for the first time all game you have more posts than me on this page! Do you have an opinion? I can't really play on until we have a consensus - teching PP next means academy in Seaside otherwise. If we tech off PP, I'd definitely hold on any trades of Constitution since it will be able to net us more expensive techs should we choose to trade it around.

Free Market post GA would help out cities trade with each other, but we still wouldn't get any benefits from overseas until the other AI are out of Mercantilism. We'll play this one by ear as it gets closer, but if all of the AI's stay in Merc I'd lean towards staying in Merc as well. With no overseas trade routes, the extra spec is worth more than the extra domestic trade route.

I didn't consider that civic/religion swap to try and get Roosevelt to friendly with us. Again, we'll see what they tech situation is like and whether or not getting Roosevelt to friendly will help us any. Certainly something that may come in handy when the time comes though.

So, before I play on here's what we need to decide on:
Tech situation: bulb PP or tech it, or tech something else. My vote: Tech PP, academy in Seaside
Tech trade situation: Trade or hold onto Constitution. My vote: use PP to trade around for gunpowder and economics.
National Wonders: Not as critical - but where does Oxford and Globe go? My vote: too early to really tell. On Heroic Epic and Wall Street: HE in Broberg, WS in St. Pete IF we decide on Hermitage in St. Pete. This I need to know a little bit sooner as St. Pete is close to being able to start building it.
 
Tech situation: bulb PP or tech it, or tech something else. My vote: Tech PP, academy in Seaside
Tech trade situation: Trade or hold onto Constitution. My vote: use PP to trade around for gunpowder and economics.
National Wonders: Not as critical - but where does Oxford and Globe go? My vote: too early to really tell. On Heroic Epic and Wall Street: HE in Broberg, WS in St. Pete IF we decide on Hermitage in St. Pete. This I need to know a little bit sooner as St. Pete is close to being able to start building it.

I put more weight on long-term benefits--sometimes too much. But...
(1) Tech PP and
(2) use it to trade. Hold onto Constitution for better stuff.
(3) WS in St Pete regardless. Wait on Oxford and Globe. I'd also wait on HE, since I think Moscow would be the best place for it (much better than Broberg) if Oxford does not go in Moscow. Finish Constitution in 2 turns, but otherwise I'd run engineers where possible--we might just get lucky and pop an Eng to put Oxford in Seaside.
 
Free Market post GA would help out cities trade with each other, but we still wouldn't get any benefits from overseas until the other AI are out of Mercantilism. We'll play this one by ear as it gets closer, but if all of the AI's stay in Merc I'd lean towards staying in Merc as well. With no overseas trade routes, the extra spec is worth more than the extra domestic trade route.
The extra specialist under Representation is definitely more worth than one more domestic trade route. You should count on that carefully, you need more than one overseas trade partner to fill up your trade routes, likely three under FM. And you definitely need overseas trade routes to beat the power of a free specialist everywhere. So I would stay in Merc for quite a while longer.

So, before I play on here's what we need to decide on:
Tech situation: bulb PP or tech it, or tech something else. My vote: Tech PP, academy in Seaside
Tech trade situation: Trade or hold onto Constitution. My vote: use PP to trade around for gunpowder and economics.
National Wonders: Not as critical - but where does Oxford and Globe go? My vote: too early to really tell. On Heroic Epic and Wall Street: HE in Broberg, WS in St. Pete IF we decide on Hermitage in St. Pete. This I need to know a little bit sooner as St. Pete is close to being able to start building it.
I always prefer Academies to bulbing. There's no rush for you to get either GP or Economics so I see no reason to trade away Constitution, waiting for PP should do the trick.

Globe should go somewhere with a huge food output that you can use for mucho drafting of Infantry when the fun time comes.
 
Sweet, a consensus! I'll look to play later today.
 
Go ahead and play! :) But if Niklas is also thinking we'll want to run Nat'lism for drafting then I'd say Globe in Seaside is a must, and then Oxford must go in Moscow, and.... I guess HE for Broberg, since St Pete is a good site for Wall Street, and there's no better place for Hermitage (although it's not yet clear that we absolutely need it). Therefore, if Oxford is going to Moscow then I'd look around to see if we can get that 5th university up somewhere faster than in Seaside. 10 turns would be worth a lot of beakers--5, eh, not so critical. Also, given the strength of having an extra specialist versus extra trade routes, as noted by Niklas, if we do get copper when Broberg's borders pop then we should stop and think about SoL again. 74 bpt * 150 turns (probably more) = 11000 beakers.
 
1740 - Academy in Seaside, and Constitution drops to two turns. I hold onto the scientist for now - I'll burn him for the GA when it gets to one turn left on the first GA.

IBT - Mao finishes PP! Caravels are 2 N of Seaside. Bombay pops to 80% and takes a fur tile away from Copperville.

1742 - Constitution in 1. I pull up Mao to trade with him, and here's the deal. Nationalism by itself is not enough to get PP - he wants 420 gold minimum too which we're not giving him. He'll give us PP, his WM, and 40 gold for Nationalism and Liberalism, but that's a pretty steep price. I'm still leaning toward making the deal anyway - neither tech is a monopoly tech and I could probably swing it to Churchill and Roosevelt for Economics and Gunpowder respectively. I'll wait here for a decision.
 
Do the deal! Neither of Nationalism or Liberalism are monopoly techs, and you have a chance to both broker and save yourselves the research. Who knows if he'll sell it to Churchill for Nationalism plus gold next turn? Go for it.
 
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