SGOTM 10 - Xteam

[ShannonCT]

If we adopt religion without knowing which AI we face, we may very well run into a problem where no one will sell us their maps or trade resources or open borders. We might miss circumnavigation, and because our world map is smaller, it won't get us the full +4 diplo bonus for gifting. In other words, we might being digging a diplo hole that we can only get out of by going back to no religion.

 

[leif erikson]

Just ran a quick test. Without a religion, I couldn't trade maps to Izzie or Boudi. With religion, I also couldn't trade maps with Justinian, but I still could with Augustus. They all gave me gold for our world map after we circumnavigated, which happened on turn 35, 1460.

Tech
Started with Printing Press, got a Great Engineer in St Pete on turn 28, or 1425 AD. Changed to Gunpowder and bulbed it, requireing 6 more turns to complete, which happened in1465, or turn 36. Back to Printing Press. Christianity spreads to Moscow of its own accord on Turn 31 and we get a Great Engineer on Turn 62 - 1595. Change research to Chemistry and Bulb it. I'm on turn 63 and just went into anarchy to change to Caste.

Changed to HR on turn 29 - 1430.
Also, just completed National Epic on turn 62 -1595.

We do have worse relationship with other civs, but you are correct, it all depends on who the civs are that we'll meet.
As my first build in St. Pete was a Caravel, I would have won the circumnavigation race without maps, but I also know this map too well.

 

[ShannonCT]

I played one more test game, to try the bulbing strategy I mentioned:

1) Start researching PP until it's 1 turn from completion, then put a few turns into Gunpowder
2) Build an early library in St. Pete
3) After Moscow gets the first GE, hire 2 scientists in St. Pete in addition to the engineer
4) Use Moscow's GE to finish Gunpowder, then start on Chem
5) St Pete's first GP will be born 15 turns after Moscow's, with ~66% chance of GE. If it's a GE, bulb the rest of Chem. If it's a GS, self-research Chem and save the GS.
6) All subsequent GPs from Moscow and St. Pete should have a high chance of being GSs (fire the engineers). If we can find another high-food city, we can look to get another GS from it as well.
7) We can use 1 GS on SciMeth and finish with self-research. Then use 1 GS on Astro and finish with self-research. Then use 2 GSs on Physics and get a free GS. Then use 2 GSs on Biology.

I got Biology on T90 (1714AD). I went for religion, Caste, and Pacifism after whipping the last settler (just went for 6 cities again), so I got the second GE quite a bit earlier. The biggest uncertainty with this strategy is what the second GP will be. If the second GP was a GS, I would have had to self-research all of Chem. I would have an extra GS for bulbing Biology more quickly, but the self-research of Chem would probably result in a 5 turn delay to Bio. Or we could just refrain from hiring any scientists in St. Pete until the 2nd GE is born, with Pacifism/religion speeding it up. Use the two extra tiles to grow faster and build NE faster.

All things considered, I think the tech plan above is the best we can do.

 

[Frederiksberg]

Looks good. So bulbing Astro and Physics also is faster than self researching Biology all the way. I will experiment with this during the weekend.

 

[Cactus Pete]

If we adopt religion without knowing which AI we face, we may very well run into a problem where no one will sell us their maps or trade resources or open borders. We might miss circumnavigation, and because our world map is smaller, it won't get us the full +4 diplo bonus for gifting. In other words, we might being digging a diplo hole that we can only get out of by going back to no religion.

SCT, can you be more specific regarding what civs, or how many from what subset of civs, we would have to meet before we could establish a state religion and start utilizing Pacifism? If we are able to get religion earlier, would that not mean some change in your tech plan (which looks good, at least without Pacifism) would be needed?

 

[Frederiksberg]

I did a "quick" test this morning. Took at least 3 hours.

I made a few mistakes, not whipping enough workers before switching to caste is probably most important and also waiting too long to start building work shops (but this is somehow related to the lack of workers).

RNG was against me and I got the GS instead of the GE and had to self research Chemistry. Decided to use the GS for an Academy. Anyway I got to Biology in 91 turns using the following scheme:

Zero research to begin with. Switch to Pacifism and Judaism ASAP. Use the GE from Moscow to bulb Gunpowder. Then do some turns on Chemistry. Unfortunately a GS is born in St. Pete and is used for Academy in Moscow. Grow a GS in St. Pete while building a market there (After NE is done). It turns out to be not so valuable since the change to Caste comes soon after it is finished. Anyway the next GP is a GM and he is used to finish PP (did a few turns of research in preparation). When PP is in trade for Education and use the GS for a big part of SciMeth. Finish SciMeth and then self research Biology.

I didn't see any problems with trade - only Boudica was unwilling because I had to break trades to keep Izzy happy. So 4 out of 5 AI are trading despite the religious differences and Quin would probably be pleased by now if I had bothered to search for him (found him quite late). Gifting a resource and giving in to demands for techs and world map was all I used in diplomacy.

I suppose that SCT used multiple GP farms to generate all the GS's needed to bulb his way to Biology and I may take a look at that also if time allows.

 

[Frederiksberg]

The save at 1716 AD:

http://forums.civfanatics.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=224584&stc=1&d=1250338717

 

[Frederiksberg]

Did one more test following SCT's plan only with early Pacifism again.

Missed out on the 2nd GE one more time . Don't know how many turns it costs but end result was Bio in 93 turns.

I still think it works better than the other approach I tried because Astro and Physics is also researched in this save and there is only 2 turns to Lib is complete (winning the race ).

Again tech trade was OK trading for Education and Nationalism.

Save at 1720 AD

http://forums.civfanatics.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=224662&stc=1&d=1250366677

Looks like this SGOTM will be more random than many of the earlier. If one of the better teams manage to win the Lib race taking an expensive tech they will have a considerable advantage. There is also always a risk of getting a GA due to the NE and that would also mean a considerable setback.

 

[ShannonCT]

SCT, can you be more specific regarding what civs, or how many from what subset of civs, we would have to meet before we could establish a state religion and start utilizing Pacifism? If we are able to get religion earlier, would that not mean some change in your tech plan (which looks good, at least without Pacifism) would be needed?

The main benefit I can see of getting religion/Pacifism earlier is having a more certain chance of the second GP being a GE. Getting the second GE earlier is not a big benefit other than that. The GPPs we will earn before Caste System are a small fraction of the total GPPs we will earn over the game.

It looks like we are starting on the Small continent. If we could meet a civ on the big continent and buy their map, it should go a long way to securing circumnavigation and giving us a big chunk of the map to give away for diplo points. It would also show us where to send our caravel to meet other AI. Maybe we should put our explorer on the caravel so we can meet AI faster. If the first map we buy reveals everyone's location on the Big continent, our explorer can quickly make contact with everyone.

Of the 50 possible AI, 11 will trade maps at Pleased or better, 26 at Cautious or better, 3 at Annoyed or better, 1 at Furious or better. Adopting a religion would put us at Annoyed with most AI, thus giving a low chance of being able to get their map. But staying at Cautious means that 60% of the AI we could meet would be willing to sell their map.

Also, 39 AI are willing to open borders at Cautious or better, 10 at Annoyed or better, 1 at Pleased or better. Staying at Cautious means 98% of AI would be willing to open borders. Once we get open borders, the AI will not readily cancel them even if we drop down to Annoyed. Open borders are worth +2 diplo points eventually (+1 after 25 turns, +2 after 25 more turns).

The diplomatic goal should be to stay at Cautious or better with as many AI as possible. All but 3 AI will trade techs at Cautious. Only 13 AI will trade techs at Annoyed. Around the time when we want to pick up Education, Nationalism, Economics, Liberalism, etc in trades, if we have +4 diplo from fair trade, +1 from years of peace, +2 from open borders, and +1 from providing resources, we should be able to make tech trades with almost any AI despite religious differences and trading with worst enemies.

 

[leif erikson]

The main benefit I can see of getting religion/Pacifism earlier is having a more certain chance of the second GP being a GE. Getting the second GE earlier is not a big benefit other than that. The GPPs we will earn before Caste System are a small fraction of the total GPPs we will earn over the game.

I agree with this.

It looks like we are starting on the Small continent. If we could meet a civ on the big continent and buy their map, it should go a long way to securing circumnavigation and giving us a big chunk of the map to give away for diplo points. It would also show us where to send our caravel to meet other AI. Maybe we should put our explorer on the caravel so we can meet AI faster. If the first map we buy reveals everyone's location on the Big continent, our explorer can quickly make contact with everyone.

Tihis may make it more difficult to achieve Circumnavigation. If the AI are map trading, they will have to "see" fewer tiles to achieve it.

Does this argue for two Caravels?

The diplomatic goal should be to stay at Cautious or better with as many AI as possible. All but 3 AI will trade techs at Cautious. Only 13 AI will trade techs at Annoyed. Around the time when we want to pick up Education, Nationalism, Economics, Liberalism, etc in trades, if we have +4 diplo from fair trade, +1 from years of peace, +2 from open borders, and +1 from providing resources, we should be able to make tech trades with almost any AI despite religious differences and trading with worst enemies.

Are you saying that we can adopt a religion once we achieve Circumnavigation or should we wait until we have made our first trade? If it is once we achieve Circumnavigation, we should seek to accomplish this fairly quickly.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Maybe we should put our explorer on the caravel so we can meet AI faster. Strongly agree.If the first map we buy reveals everyone's location on the Big continent, our explorer can quickly make contact with everyone.

Of the 50 possible AI, 11 will trade maps at Pleased or better, 26 at Cautious or better, 3 at Annoyed or better, 1 at Furious or better. Adopting a religion would put us at Annoyed with most AI, thus giving a low chance of being able to get their map. But staying at Cautious means that 60% of the AI we could meet would be willing to sell their map. Are there ten AI that won't trade maps under any circumstances?

Also, 39 AI are willing to open borders at Cautious or better, 10 at Annoyed or better, 1 at Pleased or better. Staying at Cautious means 98% of AI would be willing to open borders. Once we get open borders, the AI will not readily cancel them even if we drop down to Annoyed. Open borders are worth +2 diplo points eventually (+1 after 25 turns, +2 after 25 more turns).

The diplomatic goal should be to stay at Cautious or better with as many AI as possible. All but 3 AI will trade techs at Cautious. Only 13 AI will trade techs at Annoyed. Around the time when we want to pick up Education, Nationalism, Economics, Liberalism, etc in trades, if we have +4 diplo from fair trade, +1 from years of peace, +2 from open borders, and +1 from providing resources, we should be able to make tech trades with almost any AI despite religious differences and trading with worst enemies.

Thanks for taking the time to explain. Strong argument for delaying religion.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Does this argue for two Caravels? Think it depends on how the game goes and what the map shows.

Are you saying that we can adopt a religion once we achieve Circumnavigation or should we wait until we have made our first trade? If it is once we achieve Circumnavigation, we should seek to accomplish this fairly quickly.

Don't think circumnavigation is the sole criteria, as we want to be able to trade. Be preferable to delay switching until we have sufficient positive diplo points with most AI to insure trading even with sectarian irritation, and that will depend on which AIs are in the game and how successful we've been in making them like us (or not dislike us). Could be some tricky calls when they start making demands.

 

[ShannonCT]

Are there ten AI that won't trade maps under any circumstances?

Toku. The rest need to be Friendly.

 

[Frederiksberg]

The main benefit I can see of getting religion/Pacifism earlier is having a more certain chance of the second GP being a GE. Getting the second GE earlier is not a big benefit other than that. The GPPs we will earn before Caste System are a small fraction of the total GPPs we will earn over the game.

If we look at the impact on the Biology date it can easily be calculated. In the last turns before we get Biology GPP production will be around 8*3*3 GPP. Each turn we postpone Pacifism costs 3 GPP before library and 9 GPP after library is built in St. Pete. In other words 1/24 turn on the Biology date is lost every turn we wait with Pacifism before library and 1/8 turn is lost per turn after. Lets say we build a caravel immediately and have it ready say 10 turns after we get religion. Now we explore for 8 turns before we meet an AI and buy their map. If we then adopt pacifism we have delayed Biology by 3/4 turn.

So the loss is most likely modest (~1 turn) as long as we can adopt before we build the library in St. Pete. On the other hand it seems to me that we are chasing a ghost here. None of the games I played presented me with any problems with trading and circumnavigation was merely a question of building the caravel fast and then sail around the world. So unless the AI in the test game are particularly easy to deal with I don't expect any problems in the real game either.

 

[ShannonCT]

So the loss is most likely modest (~1 turn) as long as we can adopt before we build the library in St. Pete. On the other hand it seems to me that we are chasing a ghost here. None of the games I played presented me with any problems with trading and circumnavigation was merely a question of building the caravel fast and then sail around the world. So unless the AI in the test game are particularly easy to deal with I don't expect any problems in the real game either.

But adopting Pacifism early, before Caste, will also mean an extra turn of revolt. It seems there's really no upside to chasing an earlier GP. The potential downside depends on which AI we face. In this test game, we had Qin, who's favorite civic is Bureaucracy, and Justinian, who will trade techs at Annoyed. And you never know how many diplo hits we're going to take for trading with worst enemies or refusing to stop trading.

I notice in your first test game you stopped trading with Boudica at Izzy's request. Boudica was the one who ended up with Liberalism, a tech the AI will never withhold if they are happy enough. I think we'd be better off trying to keep all AI at least Cautious (except Ragnar, Shaka, and Toku). Early open borders and resource trades may be key to this.

 

[ShannonCT]

Fred's 2nd test game seems to confirm that bulbing Astro, Physics, and Bio is better than self-research. In general, self-researching techs that can be bulbed by GSs is a bad idea because we'll have an abundance of them with the NE/NP combination.

 

[Cactus Pete]

What about going for Liberalism? Our original thinking was that the AI will go for it, and we can't compete. Wondering if, after testing, that still seems likely?

 

[ShannonCT]

What about going for Liberalism? Our original thinking was that the AI will go for it, and we can't compete. Wondering if, after testing, that still seems likely?

If we can trade for Education soon enough after the first AI gets Education, it might be worth the risk. We could take Communism with it. If we lose the race though, it's wasting beakers on something we could easily get in a trade.

 

[leif erikson]

It sounds to me as though we are ready to proceed?

Any place we have disagreement?

 

[Cactus Pete]

If we can trade for Education soon enough after the first AI gets Education, it might be worth the risk. We could take Communism with it. If we lose the race though, it's wasting beakers on something we could easily get in a trade.

So the plan would be, once Education is available, to determine if we could trade for it (perhaps without actually doing so), and, if we could, then assess whether we would then be in a position to accelerate research to Liberalism?