I always forget the HBR requirement for elephants. Oh well, maybe later in trade. The ivory is still good for happiness, the 9 gpt will be very useful, and this is one of our required resources. So the trade is worthwhile.
One issue we need to think about is religion. We are required to have a state religion at the end, and to have it in all of our cities. Since we are running Theocracy without a state religion for diplomatic reasons, we can not get any spread at all (free or otherwise). So adopting and spreading a religion will have to wait until later. But since we are working to get SciMeth as quickly as we can, monasteries will be obsolete later.
We need to finish the Hindu monastery in HorseCopper (I believe it was there), and maybe build monasteries of whatever religion in any cities which have a religion. This will give us more options later. We can always fall back on Organized Religion if necessary, but having other options so we can run other religious civics would be helpful.
As for the UN vote, I am not seriously worried at the moment. Theocracy will give us a significant boost with 4 civs (Justinian, Saladin, Zara, and Isabella). Resource deals should give us +2 with everyone. Depending on wars, we should be able to get +1 for sustained peace and +2 for Open Borders with at least some civs. This gives us a "base" of up to +5 with everyone, although we may lose some or all of that with specific civs depending on wars, demands to stop trading, etc. But the opportunity is there.
OK, now some data extracted from the XML files on diplo factors and leaders. (Long blobs of data ahead!)
Justinian
Base attitude: 1
Warmonger respect: 1
Tech trade threshold (WFYABTA): 15
Tech trade known threshold: 30%
Worse rank attitude: -2
Better rank attitude: 0
Close borders max penalty: -4
Shared religion max bonus: +6
Different religion max penalty: -4
Defensive pact max bonus: +2
Shared war max bonus: +3
Favorite civic max bonus: +5 (Theocracy)
Will not declare threshold: Pleased
Justinian will trade many techs before hitting WFYABTA, with a low (30%) known threshold. He is likely to be a key source of tech trades, especially later once other civs have stopped trading with us. He also gets a fairly large max bonus for favorite civic.
Saladin
Base attitude: 0
Warmonger respect: 1
Tech trade threshold (WFYABTA): 10
Tech trade known threshold: 40%
Worse rank attitude: 0
Better rank attitude: +2
Close borders max penalty: -3
Shared religion max bonus: +5
Different religion max penalty: -4
Defensive pact max bonus: +2
Shared war max bonus: +4
Favorite civic max bonus: +2 (Theocracy)
Will not declare threshold: Pleased
The big item here is the very small max bonus for sharing favorite civic, only +2.

I was expecting us to get another bump in a couple turns, but that now seems unlikely. Saladin is a reasonably good tech trade partner, although not as good as Justinian.
Zara Yaqob
Base attitude: 2
Warmonger respect: 1
Tech trade threshold (WFYABTA): 10
Tech trade known threshold: 30%
Worse rank attitude: -1
Better rank attitude: +2
Close borders max penalty: -2
Shared religion max bonus: +7
Different religion max penalty: -4
Defensive pact max bonus: +2
Shared war max bonus: +3
Favorite civic max bonus: +5 (Theocracy)
Will not declare threshold: Friendly (10% chance at Pleased)
Zara may attack at Pleased, as we have been aware of. He is a decent tech trade partner, and gets a fairly large max bonus for shared favorite civic.
Isabella
Base attitude: -1
Warmonger respect: 1
Tech trade threshold (WFYABTA): 5
Tech trade known threshold: 60%
Worse rank attitude: -1
Better rank attitude: +1
Close borders max penalty: -3
Shared religion max bonus: +6
Different religion max penalty: -4
Defensive pact max bonus: +2
Shared war max bonus: +2
Favorite civic max bonus: +4 (Theocracy)
Will not declare threshold: Friendly (10% chance at Pleased)
Isabella is a rather poor tech trade partner. She gets a modest max bonus for shared favorite civic, and may attack at Pleased.
Tokugawa
Base attitude: -1
Warmonger respect: 2
Tech trade threshold (WFYABTA): 5
Tech trade known threshold: 100%
Worse rank attitude: 0
Better rank attitude: +1
Close borders max penalty: -3
Shared religion max bonus: +3
Different religion max penalty: -2
Defensive pact max bonus: +2
Shared war max bonus: +4
Favorite civic max bonus: +6 (Mercantilism)
Will not declare threshold: Friendly (10% chance at Pleased)
Tokugawa is a horrible tech trade partner, never trading techs not known to everyone else he knows and with a very small WFYABTA limit. He may also declare at pleased. He does have a large max bonus for shared favorite civic. If we have problems with his vote, running Mercantilism will help greatly given enough time.
Mehmed II
Base attitude: -1
Warmonger respect: 1
Tech trade threshold (WFYABTA): 5
Tech trade known threshold: 40%
Worse rank attitude: 0
Better rank attitude: +3
Close borders max penalty: -2
Shared religion max bonus: +4
Different religion max penalty: -4
Defensive pact max bonus: +2
Shared war max bonus: +4
Favorite civic max bonus: +5 (Vassalage)
Will not declare threshold: Pleased
Mehmed is a poor tech trading partner, with a low WFYABTA limit. He has a fairly large max bonus for shared favorite civic, so if we end up needing his vote running Vassalage for 30 turns will give us a significant boost.
Gandhi (for reference)
Base attitude: 2
Warmonger respect: 0
Tech trade threshold (WFYABTA): 15
Tech trade known threshold: 20%
Worse rank attitude: 0
Better rank attitude: +1
Close borders max penalty: -2
Shared religion max bonus: +4
Different religion max penalty: -2
Defensive pact max bonus: +2
Shared war max bonus: +2
Favorite civic max bonus: +7 (Universal Suffrage)
Will not declare threshold: Pleased
The main thing to note here is the warmonger respect value of 0. Tokugawa is 2 and everyone else is 1, so Tokugawa will get a negative with all other AIs. This factor does not apply to the human civ, so we are neutral on this point even though we are the only civ with a value of 0.
For all the leaders, we should keep an eye on their "worse rank/better rank" modifiers. These are hidden, but apply based on the score rank difference between the AI civ and us. For these, "worse" means the AI has a worse score than you, and "better" means the AI has a better score than you. The factor is modified based on how many "places" different the two civs are in rank, as a fraction of all the civs who have ever been in the game +1. So if we were first place in score, then the civ which was last place would get the full value of the "worse" rank factor.
There are also some other factors which do not depend on the specific civs, such as "losers unite" which gives a shared bonus between civs which are both in the lower portion of the score rankings.
OK, here is what we currently see:
Justinian - Friendly, +12 visible
+1 sustained peace
+2 Open Borders
+2 resources
+3 favorite civic
+4 fair trade
There should also be +1 (base attitude); all the other hidden factors should be zero. So Justinian is actually +13, very solidly Friendly.
Saladin - Pleased, +9 visible
+1 sustained peace
+2 Open Borders
+2 resources
+2 favorite civic (max possible)
+3 fair trade
-1 refused to help
All other hidden factors should be zero. So we need just +1 more and Saladin should be friendly; the refused to help is really hurting us here.

We could maybe get it by gifting him a tech to get fair trade up to +4.
Zara Yaqob - Pleased, +4 visible
+1 sustained peace
+2 Open Borders
+2 resources
+1 favorite civic
-1 close borders
-1 refused to help
There should be +2 for base attitude, and 4 (rank diff) / 8 (total civs +1) * -1 worse rank = -0.5 for rank difference. This probably rounds to -1, so we actually have +5 total. Zara has no fair trade bonus right now; as we have known him longest, this will be more difficult to boost. But we should continue to get more bonus for sharing Theocracy. It should not be too difficult to get Zara's vote, unless we get a lot more penalties with him.
Isabella - Pleased, +6 visible
+1 sustained peace
+2 Open Borders
+2 resources
+1 favorite civic
+4 fair trade
-2 traded with worst enemy
-1 refused to help
-1 refused to help war-time
There is -1 base attitude, and 5 (rank diff) / 8 (total civs +1) * -1 worse rank = -0.625 for rank difference. This probably rounds to -1, so we actually have +4 total. We will get a couple more points from sharing Theocracy, but Isabella's vote is going to be very tough to get without sharing religion unless we are lucky and she forgets some of the negatives.
Tokugawa - Pleased, +8 visible
+1 sustained peace
+1 Open Borders
+2 resources
+4 fair trade
There is -1 base attitude, so we are actually at +7. We will need three more points to get to Friendly, and I don't really see how we will manage it any time soon. Longer term we may get some shared Mercantilism if we need Tokugawa's vote.
Mehmed - Cautious, 0 visible
+1 sustained peace
+1 Open Borders
+4 fair trade
-4 traded with worst enemy
-1 refused to help war-time
-1 refused to stop trading with worst enemy
There is -1 base attitude, so we are actually at -1. We should eventually get +2 resources and another +1 from Open Borders for +2 overall. But unless Mehmed forgets a lot of trangressions, we are probably never going to get his vote. Sharing Vassalage for a long time plus sharing religion might do it, but otherwise Mehmed is not going to back us.
So we have a solid friend (Justinian), a high pleased and likely vote (Saladin), a high pleased and borderline vote (Tokugawa), a low pleased possible vote (Zara), a low pleased difficult vote (Isabella), and a cautious near impossible vote (Mehmed).
The upcoming war between Justinian and Tokugawa is likely to lose us Tokugawa's vote as we take a few negatives for refusing to help.

Justinian is happy enough with us that he should remain on our side. Of course, if he takes enough of Toku's cities to be our eventual rival, it won't matter how friendly he is. We
really need for Mehmed to be our rival, given how friendly Justinian is and how unfriendly Mehmed is.
Of course, longer term we will have to pick a religon which will have significant effects. Also, we may be able to share military struggle with some civs. If we get lucky, we will be asked for some things we can give or do (switch civics, religions, etc.) and gain some bonuses. If we are asked to switch a civic (can not happen right now, as Mehmed lacks Feudalism and Tokugawa lacks Banking) we should always do so. If asked to adopt a religion...we should probably do so, as we could switch back after 5 turns. Although the hit during those 5 turns could potentially cause another AI to declare on us.
Finally, of course, we can declare war on up to 2 civs and take their votes (by conquering their cities), and possibly vassalize them and make them vote for us. Given his bad relations to us and his control of silk, Mehmed might make an excellent target for "acquiring" more votes. But we will have to see what happens.
We will need to be very careful when Justinian declares on Tokugawa.

Saladin will get a -1 with Justinian as he is Pleased with Tokugawa; this may be enough to push him to Cautious, where he might join the war on Tokugawa's side. We would be getting requests to join in from all three AIs.

It might be worth thinking about joining Tokugawa and Saladin if this happens, although that is a tricky question.