SGOTM 11 - Fifth Element

BLubmuz · May 6, 2010

havr said:
OK, there is 10% chance he is on the pigs,
and 12.5% chance he is on the square above the pigs.

(since you see other squares at T48 he must have been on one of those two tiles and you can calc the probability for the other two from there).

I say: W->SW->NW->N (I hope I got the fog-busting position right).
You delay fog-busting position by 1 turn, but minimize chance of lion as he can't move to water. First move is with minimal risk (10% only).

I don't know how you can differ the chances between one tile and another. to me, he's got 12.5% chances to be in any tile. Those will increase if the lion was near the small lake.

But your path should be safer even if we lose 1 turn. Otherwise we risk to lose the fogbuster. And it's not wrote anywhere the barbs will spawn in any unfogged tile exactly on turn 50. That is the turn when they start.

Mitchum · May 6, 2010

BLubmuz said:
But your path should be safer even if we lose 1 turn. Otherwise we risk to lose the fogbuster. And it's not wrote anywhere the barbs will spawn in any unfogged tile exactly on turn 50. That is the turn when they start.

I forgot to mention that in my test games, I checked the WB every turn and the barb animals started to disappear on T49. Not all at once, but that was the first turn that they were removed from the map. So one of the lions and/or bear may already be gone...

Mitchum · May 6, 2010

In all of my worry over seeing 2 lions, I forgot to check to see if one of them was wounded, which should be the case since warrior 2 got 1 hit in before getting killed. Can I go back and open a previous save just to check the health of the lions? I wouldn't make any moves, obviously.

BLubmuz · May 6, 2010

Mitchum said:
Yes, looking at all the possible places that the lion I saw on T47 could have gone in 2 turns (none of which were in my visible range), there is a 10% chance that he is on the pigs. However, there is also a small chance that lion 2 is there as well.

The safest route is to head due S around the lower lake, but this gets me to the forest on T55 at the soonest, which could be too late...

No matter what we do, there is risk involved, so I'd like to hear what level of risk is acceptable from the rest of the team.

It's late in Europe, so I may have to finish my turnset tomorrow...

Mitch, no one of us have a crystal ball. We can suggest any move, we can even vote, but this is not something with ability involved. Just luck. So, go on and pray. No need to wait. we can discuss for days, but never find the right solution.

Simply 'cause there isn't a right solution. Only a lucky solution.
Napoleon used to choose his generals amongst the luckier officials: a well planned cavalry charge can be ruined if a thunderstorm slows down the cavalry.

So, try to be lucky. We're with you!

BLubmuz · May 6, 2010

Mitchum said:
In all of my worry over seeing 2 lions, I forgot to check to see if one of them was wounded, which should be the case since warrior 2 got 1 hit in before getting killed. Can I go back and open a previous save just to check the health of the lions? I wouldn't make any moves, obviously.

I don't think it's safe, even if you won't move anything. you have to start from an autosave. No, better jump (see my previous post).

Fortune favors the Bold!

Mitchum · May 6, 2010

BLubmuz said:
Mitch, no one of us have a crystal ball. We can suggest any move, we can even vote, but this is not something with ability involved. Just luck. So, go on and pray.

Was that a typo or intended? Too funny.

OK, I'm playing now, taking the southern route around the northern lake as havr suggested. I agree that the risk is minimal. It's there, but minimal.

BLubmuz · May 6, 2010

Mitchum said:
Was that a typo or intended? Too funny.

OK, I'm playing now, taking the southern route around the northern lake as havr suggested. I agree that the risk is minimal. It's there, but minimal.

Pray while you play... no it wasn't a typo. If it can help you...

I'm waiting for your submission. No losses.

havr · May 6, 2010

BLubmuz said:
I don't know how you can differ the chances between one tile and another. to me, he's got 12.5% chances to be in any tile. Those will increase if the lion was near the small lake.

If you really want to, I can go into the math that explains why if he was were he was at T47, and the tiles you see then he has 10% in pigs and 12.5% in the one above, and the rest % in a group of other tiles. If you want I can give you exact % for every tile, this turn and the next turn, and X turns after (although eventually it will converge to equa-probability for every tile).

I know math good. Much better than I know Civ4. So another option is that you will just believe me.

unclethrill · May 6, 2010

Too late to matter but I agree with both BLubmuz and Havr. Southern route is best and play with the fingers crossed!

BTW. Late in Europe is relative since I work graveyard shift and BLubmuz just doesn't seem to know when to go to bed!!

unclethrill · May 6, 2010

havr said:
If you really want to, I can go into the math that explains why if he was were he was at T47, and the tiles you see then he has 10% in pigs and 12.5% in the one above, and the rest % in a group of other tiles. If you want I can give you exact % for every tile, this turn and the next turn, and X turns after (although eventually it will converge to equa-probability for every tile).

I know math good. Much better than I know Civ4. So another option is that you will just believe me.

Good job! I love math too.

BLubmuz · May 6, 2010

havr said:
If you really want to, I can go into the math that explains why if he was were he was at T47, and the tiles you see then he has 10% in pigs and 12.5% in the one above, and the rest % in a group of other tiles. If you want I can give you exact % for every tile, this turn and the next turn, and X turns after (although eventually it will converge to equa-probability for every tile).

I know math good. Much better than I know Civ4. So another option is that you will just believe me.

Good to know. I start thinking the case (in form of Alan) gave us a good member.
I can believe you, still those probabilities are too close to make a good decision.
I think that with probabilities ranging from 10 to 15% or so we can only be lucky. Or the opposite.

havr · May 6, 2010

It is even later in the middle east. It is 2:20am and I am just waiting to find out if we got eaten by a virtual-lion :lol:

Luckily, tomorrow is not a work day (work week is sunday-thursday in Israel). Which means I can do some tests, if you tell me what to test

unclethrill · May 6, 2010

havr said:
It is even later in the middle east. It is 2:20am and I am just waiting to find out if we got eaten by a virtual-lion

Luckily, tomorrow is not a work day (work week is sunday-thursday in Israel). Which means I can do some tests, if you tell me what to test

LOL, My workweek is Wednesday - friday just long shifts. I will be able to run some tests saturday night too

Mitchum · May 6, 2010

OK. I played the game. No losses. But, warrior 3 ended up killing the wounded lion. :ar15:

Revenge!! But, he got wounded in the process. Then, the very next turn, I saw TWO MORE lions. There must have been 3 of them out there. My critically wounded warrior 3 had to retreat further onto the peninsula to avoid getting attacked again while in his fog busting spot. It would have been a sure loss. Luckily, the lion didn't follow me. I hid out on the peninsula (1W of fog bust location) for a few turns before I dared getting back into position.

Warrior 1 ended up killing one of the lions too on T60 (very late for barb animals). He has a free promotion, which I haven't given him yet. I'll try to post my report before I have to head home. If not, it will go up later. I'll post the save now.

Mitchum · May 6, 2010

I followed the PPP as planned, so I wont re-write it here.

Warrior 2 was being careful, trying to get to his fog-busting location. He even stood still a few turns, looking for movement in the grass and trees. The coast was clear to move west, or so he thought... Warrior 2 was killed IBT T40 and T41 by a lion at a 67.8% chance of victory. :mad:

In a panic, the king decided it would be better to replace the dead warrior to keep the barbs in check rather than continuing to build settler 2. So, Delhi begins building warrior 3, going for max overflow into settler 2. At the end of the day, this untimely death put the kingdom 2 turns behind the original plan with respect to settlers and warriors and 1 turn behind with respect to research. :sad:

Warrior 3 dons his slug-skin armor and heads west, following in the footsteps of his dead compadre. When he reaches the edge of the city, hes been told that there are 2 hungry lions and bear out there. He looks left and then right and makes a run for it. He gets to his fog-busting forest location, looks up and sees warrior 2s club sticking out of an angry lion. He hunkers down and barely wins what should have been an easy fight. No worries. Hes avenged the death of his mate.

But, before he can catch his breath, 2 more lions are spotted the very next turn and one of them is looking right at him. Hes already in the red and extremely wounded, so he retreats further into the forest to the west, hoping not to run into the bear. He hides in the trees for 4 turns while healing. He then carefully takes up his fog-busting spot. Hoping hes seen the worst of it.

All else followed the intended PPP. The worker was still in synch but all of the builds were 2 turns delayed.

Warrior 1 killed a lion on T60, so he has a promotion, which can be taken by the next player.

Buffy Log:

Spoiler :

I'll post a new TEST save later tonight. I didn't unfog any new tiles. A forest grew 3E of our capital. Other than that, I just have to synch the beakers and food/hammers in each city.

unclethrill · May 6, 2010

Mitchum said:
OK. I played the game. No losses. But, warrior 3 ended up killing the wounded lion. Revenge!! But, he got wounded in the process. Then, the very next turn, I saw TWO MORE lions. There must have been 3 of them out there. My critically wounded warrior 3 had to retreat further onto the peninsula to avoid getting attacked again while in his fog busting spot. It would have been a sure loss. Luckily, the lion didn't follow me. I hid out on the peninsula (1W of fog bust location) for a few turns before I dared getting back into position.

Warrior 1 ended up killing one of the lions too on T60 (very late for barb animals). He has a free promotion, which I haven't given him yet. I'll try to post my report before I have to head home. If not, it will go up later. I'll post the save now.

Sounds good. Seems to have been more exciting than expected!

Dhoomstriker · May 6, 2010

Mitchum said:
I followed the PPP as planned, so I wont re-write it here...

I'll post a new TEST save later tonight. I didn't unfog any new tiles. A forest grew 3E of our capital. Other than that, I just have to synch the beakers and food/hammers in each city.

Overall, nice work! Both your and Unclethrill's luck have helped win us the west (for now). I look forward to the test game to see if there is any chance that Silverado's cultural expansion will allow us to readjust our Fog Busters' positions at all.

It's actually better that our saved game was uploaded just before we learned Monotheism. If we are 1 turn away from the tech, then we are 100% guaranteed to get it. However, our Cultural graph remains constant for anyone looking at it, so they won't know that we got a second religion until after BLubmuz uploads his saved game.

It does mean, however, that BLubmuz will have to be paying attention to micromanaging the Science Rate, so as to properly perform Binary Science.

Mitchum · May 6, 2010

OK. Here's the test save at T60. Everything is synchronized.

I thought of something a while back but I'm just remembering to mention it now. On the turn we learn BW, if there is copper in that hill, any warriors in our queue will become the more expensive (and more powerful) axeman (52 :hammers:

vs. 22

). We should try to have all of the warriors that we want built just in case. We can always set the slider to 0% for a turn or two to squeeze out that last one if needed.

Although, if there is copper in that hill, the sooner we learn BW, the earlier we benefit from the extra hammers copper provides.

BLubmuz is up. I'm taking a breather... :crazyeye:

Mitchum · May 6, 2010

Dhoomstriker said:
Overall, nice work! Both your and Unclethrill's luck have helped win us the west (for now). I look forward to the test game to see if there is any chance that Silverado's cultural expansion will allow us to readjust our Fog Busters' positions at all.

Luck? Well, I guess bad luck is luck, just the wrong flavor...

Dhoomstriker said:
It's actually better that our saved game was uploaded just before we learned Monotheism. If we are 1 turn away from the tech, then we are 100% guaranteed to get it. However, our Cultural graph remains constant for anyone looking at it, so they won't know that we got a second religion until after BLubmuz uploads his saved game.

Yes. By looking at our score (the highest), either we have more techs (i.e. we researched cheaper ones) and/or we have more population than the other teams. According to the power graph, everyone but us has learned BW, so it's likely that everyone else is whipping away pops or building settlers and workers like crazy.

Dhoomstriker said:
It does mean, however, that BLubmuz will have to be paying attention to micromanaging the Science Rate, so as to properly perform Binary Science.

BLubmuz can run two more turns at 100% research before he has to drop it for a turn. In my original plan, I was supposed to run the slider at 90% for one turn (T59). Luckily, the dead warrior changed that and I never had to deviate from binary research...

Mitchum · May 6, 2010

Dhoomstriker said:
Almost right away. We will still need to research Alphabet first, which, from discussions that we've had on the subject, comes after Meditation in our tech path.

If Zara is the only AI we know, we may want to research a basic tech or two before learning Alphabet. A lot of it depends on what resouces are in our 3rd and 4th cities. At least that's what I'm thinking right now. Alphabet takes a LONG time to learn.

Dhoomstriker said:
Hence, we'd rather let an AI waste their Hammers on it, especially since Emperor-level AIs get a bit more of a production bonus than we do (essentially, their buildings and Wonders cost less than ours do, if I correctly recall the way that difficulty modifiers work).

I had heard the the AI do NOT get a bonus on wonders. So I ran a test using WB. As it turns out, Emperor AI get an 85% discount on all items but Wonders (at least World Wonders). They require the same number of hammers for Wonders that we do, making the race for them a bit more fair.

SGOTM 11 - Fifth Element

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