There is one principle I use, which I found to be extremely important.
I never move starting warrior/scout far away before I found second city settling cite.
And I always want to do it before I finished evident tech.
In most game it is clear what first worker tech you need, but after I want max room for flexibility. I do not lock myself in thinking I will do BW, because there are many opportunity that could be missed by researching expensive BW very early.
And to be forced into BW with out alternatives is extremely upsetting for me.
I've never heard your principle before and I find it to be very interesting. Thanks for describing it. I think my scouting is less disciplined than that which may hurt me on occasion.
I tend to avoid researching BW altogether, preferring to beeline alpha and get it for free. In this game, though, there are a number of reasons to consider early BW, not even including us only meeting one AI so far.
0. We start with mining.
1. Most important, BW is strong for REX, especially with our food all coming from agri alone, and we already decided we want to REX.
2. We have a lot of forests (imo, a 30h chop very early is as powerful or more than a 45h chop after a late Math).
3. Much of the map so far has not hills but plenty of food (=poprushing).
4. Because of the cultural victory choice, I assume there will be copper somewhere and it would be nice to know where it is before settling our next city. (I was surprised you left this out of your analysis, since with TW-BW, we settle just before we find out where any copper might be, something that is really upsetting to me...
) Copper tends to be a super powerful tile, aside from opening up axemen.
5. If we know we want BW before alpha, then in my mind it's generally better to research it asap.
6. We are religious so we get slavery for free.
7. The sooner we start poprushing, the sooner we kickstart our production and the more times we poprush.
8. ???
From T3 on, we could have made a smaller arc around to Zara, but I still don't think TW would suit our goals better, as long as we know where we want to settle by ~T40. We want to settle optimally, not just squat on some stone to quickly build Stonehenge or something. To me the
essence of containing Zara is plunking down our settlements before he gets a chance to, because we don't want to DoW him. We can deal with the complications later (including slower research for the Oracle). It's easy for me to envision other teams complaining (after the SG is over) about how they let Zara expand to much while OSS quickly built two cities. We shall see, but I'm convinced that Zara has been placed nearby to tempt us to DoW him. I can only think of two real temptations: 1) worker theft and 2) land/resource grab (= stone/marble/copper and dye/silk/ivory). Let's do everything we can to make sure we won't regret not building two cities. Mutineer, if I'm not mistaken you were the one who said:
Right now only 3 things clear to me.
1) WE need to scout as mach as fast as possible.
2) We need to Rex, probably be ready to sneak cities near AI capitals. Rex for more voites, Rex for resources.
3) WE can mach more easier to claim resources from AI culturally on our own continent, leaving DOw available for claiming resources form other continent. IN addition we could hope on some AI declare on as on our own continent.
So I believe that you're upset about this, but I'm not sure I really understand why. BW-TW, in my eyes, is what gives us maximum flexibility for this particular game. I don't feel forced to go there by anything other than our priorities.
XPOST EDIT: I deleted a bunch of stuff out of this post because it was so long. In between Ras commented on some worker stuff I deleted. Sorry about that...