SGOTM 13 - Gypsy Kings

[Ronnie1]

While we're on the subject of exploring boats - please don't cut corners. The galley that has gone around Copper Island missed out on revealing 4 tiles. These could reveal coastal links to further islands.

Exploring with the WB in general - I think keep heading as far east as possible. There might be a chance at circumnavigation - who knows? Same reasoning for another WB to head far west soon.

I think mab and aj are actually asking for different things on the exploring, so I want us to discuss it a bit more.

If I understand correctly, (which is always questionable)....

mab says go fastest out, basically take the shortest route.

aj says to hit the corners looking for coastal access to another island group.

Sometimes these choices will lead to the same route, but sometimes they won't. In the past, I have mostly tried to go the corner route looking for that opportunity to link to further exploration on the diagonal that at first may go unnoticed.

About scientists in FH,....a few thoughts.
Pros for running scientists early
1) We could build early academy with a GS if we get one.
2) If we get a GP, we get him way sooner, almost 40 turns sooner I believe.
3) The factor of those scientists
4) 25% science boost in city when running 100%

Cons for running scientists early
1) Give up & , the food of course gets converted to with the whip.
2) #1 leads to slower expansion

I'm sure I'm missing something, what is it?

Are we ever going to build OxU? I don't think it pays off unless we really miscalculated the level of military we need for the VC's. This quote is the only thing that has me slightly worried..."Level: Notionally Emperor, but this is a difficult map for warring." Are we underestimating the difficulty of this map in some way?

If we think we may want OxU down the road, then the early Library gets another notch in the Pro column.

I am tempted to settle Paired Clams next. It needs a Granary + LH before Maoi, 2 WB's for the nets and worker turns on the mine and workshops.

Marble city needs Granary + LH + 1WB + marble quarry before we start GLib, and it is closer.

Piggery...not a great site other than access to the pigs, it can wait IMO, maybe never depending on other good sites availability in the fog.

 

[bcool]

About scientists in FH,....a few thoughts.
Pros for running scientists early
1) We could build early academy with a GS if we get one.
2) If we get a GP, we get him way sooner, almost 40 turns sooner I believe.
3) The factor of those scientists
4) 25% science boost in city when running 100%

Cons for running scientists early
1) Give up & , the food of course gets converted to with the whip.
2) #1 leads to slower expansion

An attempt to examine the numbers associated

Spoiler :

The Great Prophet is due 94 + 75 or T169 I'm guessing without access to the game at the moment.
We probably can get the library up in FH in 20 turns?
So T124 we can run up to 2 scientists perhaps
That would mean we would have about 60 on T124 from oracle and up to 8 per turn from there. So we might get a GP/GS on T137 or so. About 30 turns faster. Assuming we can and should run 2 scientists for 30 turns in FH.

What does running 2 scientists cost? They slow grow (by 4 food/turn) but give 1 more compared running coastal tiles.

So -120 food and ~+60 plus the cost of the library 135 hammers

Value of library adds +25% in FH which would be ~10*0.25 or 2.5

What is the value of the GP or academy 30 turns earlier?
---GP 60 hammers 150 gold up to 90 science.

---Academy
Harder to estimate minimum commerce is 14? (8 capital, 4 from 2 clam, 2 from trade route)
maximum commerce/science is harder to say but by T169 we might have the GL and a library in the capital and running a scientist or 2 more (4 scientists 24, 8 capital, 6 from 3 clams, 4? from trade) is ~42?
So assuming some wealth building capital might have an average of ~20 per turn so academy 30 turns earlier might bring 300

Conclusion
Library in FH and running 2 scientists costs over 30 turns
1) 120 food
2) 135 hammers
~(2 settlers because food is multiplied if we covert some food to hammers by whipping)
--very hard to estimate what settling 2 more cities would benefit us. They increase maintenance but settling them earlier lets us accelerate their development with slavery. If we use ron's technique of asking what they would produce for us 100 turns from now then the library's costs just skyrocketed. I'm not sure this is best because benefits now have a higher value than benefits later.

benefits
either 1) 135 science more than coastal tiles (library and 2 scientists) + 60 hammers, 300 gold, ~63 depends on switch to representation (prophet)
Or 2) 135 science (library and 2 scientists) + ~300 science (academy)

Prophet ~200 science, 150 gold, 60 hammers
Academy ~435 science

 

[adrianj]

Accelerating the prophet/scientist in FH also increases the likelihood of us generating ANOTHER prophet for the second great person. By slowing it down we can then let CC take the lead on GP production.

My opinion for the ideal GP scenario is that FH builds the Pyramids (and associated settlers) while CC builds a Library and starts growing/running scientists/building workboats/warriors.

Going into more detail:
FH pops Prophet on T169 (using BCool's guess, I also don't have game access) For simplicity's sake I'll also assume this is when the Mids get built here.
I'll assume the library is next build in CC, and from T130 it is full-time running 2 scientists. So at T169 it has 39*6 = 234! What the heck! It just *surpassed* FH in producing a great person did it not?

Bah - forget this attempted analysis! Why don't we just make CC produce a GS first at 100% odds?


Ok, some detail on this *other* option.
IF FH builds pyramids say ~T150, then it will produce a Prophet/Engineer on T160.
To guarantee a GS from CC before T160 we need the library built and functioning before T135. Is that possible? Is it reasonable for FH to be busy with the settlers/mids buildings while CC slows itself down a bit producing a GS?

If we take the idea of CC focussing on scientists a little further, and assume it builds GLib approx T170, then the second great person will come out from there on T190 - this is also before FH produces an unwanted Prophet. So, we could in fact have TWO Great Scientists before we worry about Prophets spoiling the mix.

 

[Ronnie1]

The game says 1st GP 61 turns from NOW at T108 = T169 for the GProphet.

I like the idea of getting GS production going in CC.

Can we alter our plan to get Pyramids up in a reasonable amount of time in FH?

 

[adrianj]

Haha, I tend to get overly excited about things some times. I'm now actually starting to think that the settled Prophet is more valuable than a super early Scientist, provided the next great people are scientists of course. Bcool's analysis shows that 30 turns from the Prophet is more valuable than 30 turns of Academy. Does the same logic apply when considering the delay of the Academy?

Spoiler :

Assume: CC is building Forge -> Mids (T150) -> Library,+2 scientists (T160) -> GLib(T170).
@T160 = 2*10 = 20 (100% engineer)
@T170 = 20 + 2*10 + 6*10 = 100 (40% engineer, 60% scientist)
@T183 = 100 + 2*13 +14*13 = 308 (GPerson born, 22% engineer, 78% scientist)

So, producing GProphet first will likely delay the Academy until T183, with a not-insignificant chance that it comes out as an Engineer.

Case 1: Fish Hills produces GProphet ASAP
GProphet is born on T137.
Up to T183 it is worth 46 * (5gold,2 hammers) and 23*3science.
Total for this case is 230, 92,69.

Case 2: Fish Hills produces GScientist ASAP
So, we got lucky with the GS, and we build an Academy in CC on T137.
@T160 we're bringing in ~14 science, so Academy adds 23*7 = 161.
@T170 2 scientists were added in, so Academy added 161 + 10*10 = 200.
@T183 2 more scientists from GLib came in, so Academy added 200 + 13*13.
Total for this case is 369.
That's pretty optimistic though, as it assumes we've run 100% slider.

Case 3:Fish Hills produces GScientist ASAP, but we settle it in CC.
46 * 1 hammer.
@T150 before Mids it adds 13*6 = 78.
@T160 with Mids, but before library it adds 78 + 10*9 = 168.
@T183 a library has been added, so 168 + 23*11.25 = 426.
Total is 46, 426.

Case 4:FH slowly produces GProphet.
The Prophet pops out on T170, this is basically the continue on as planned plan.
As Bcool did, it makes sense to consider that we have swapped scientists for coastal tiles in FH, so that comes at a cost of 120 and 135. This case also works coastal tiles instead of scientists, so gets 30*2 less commerce, which I'll assume is 1:1 at this stage, so -60.
From T170 the Prophet is settled in CC, and over 13 turns produces 13 *(2,5,3.75) = 26,65,48.
Assuming we convert the 120 into , then the total for this case is: 281,65,-12.

Case 5: Clam Chowder produces first GS.
In this case, CC builds Forge -> Library (T135) -> GLib (T170), leaving FH to build the Mids, (maybe around T155).
FH is not investing in a GS, so this case gains the 120, 135, loses 60 science just as Case 4, and CC was going to build the Library anyway, so no lost there.
First GS appears on T160, and is settled.
@T183 it is worth 23*(1,11.25).
By settling the first GS the Academy is delayed until T188, so missed 5 turns of Academy is worth 65.
Total for this case is:
278,133.

Obiouvlsy I've made some pretty arduous assumptions, but I think Case 4, where we just continue as planned is actually the most attractive. It produces the most , which are difficult to come by at this stage, and we can assume that investing into expansion is a good way forward from here.
A concern is that Great Person #2 has quite a high chance (22%) of becoming an Engineer because of the Pyramids build in CC.

@bcool - where did you get 300 for the GPophet from?

 

[bcool]

@bcool - where did you get 300 for the GPophet from?

oops it should be 150 from 30 turns * 5

The great engineer could be used to bulb machinery or could be saved for the Globe Theater or another wonder.

Without a plan to run bureaucracy, missing out on a early GS and the academy isn't as bad as it might be. However we should carefully consider the choices you have presented.

 

[Ronnie1]

Do we care about gene pool exposure in CC at all?

If we really want a few GS's, are we worried about the GE points from the Mids, or do we just turn it into a GPFarm and build whatever gets us GPP as soon as we can?

 

[bcool]

Case 4:FH slowly produces GProphet.
The Prophet pops out on T170, this is basically the continue on as planned plan.
As Bcool did, it makes sense to consider that we have swapped scientists for coastal tiles in FH, so that comes at a cost of 120 and 135. This case also works coastal tiles instead of scientists, so gets 30*2 less commerce, which I'll assume is 1:1 at this stage, so -60.
From T170 the Prophet is settled in CC, and over 23 turns produces 23 *(2,5,3.75) = 46,115,86.
Assuming we convert the 120 into , then the total for this case is: 301,115,26.

@aj it seems from the other cases you were comparing results out to T183, so why would you multiple the Prophet benefits by 23? Shouldn't it be 13?

 

[adrianj]

@aj it seems from the other cases you were comparing results out to T183, so why would you multiple the Prophet benefits by 23? Shouldn't it be 13?

Excellent - my results are being double checked. And of course you are right, that is a mistake. I will amend the original post.

I guess Case 5 is actually pretty good. But I made some possibly outrageous assumptions there with respect to when FH might be able to build the Pyramids. If anyone is still enjoying playing the test game, perhaps it might be interesting to play each of these cases?

 

[Ronnie1]

Also...FH could produce a Library and start working Scientists sooner than T137.

I got 52% odds on GS in a test game at T130.

 

[bcool]

Yeah Case 5 seems to be the best at first glance, the test game might settle these issues.

One thing I'm worried about with case 5 is that FH will never pop a great person. Especially if we really crank out the GS with GLib, lots of scientists and NE and/or pacifism in the capital.
We want a great person out of FH at some point or those go to waste.

FH stills lacks some infrastructure so I wonder how fast we can get that in place and build the pyramids. I imagine we will need a lighthouse and a monument and then still might run into happiness issues. We wouldn't have a forge either so we really do need a test game value for pyramids in FH.

edit: Delaying the pyramids for a FH build has a cost too.

 

[Thorn]

I've got the save and will start working on the PPP. Are there any BUFFY Mod settings that I will need to change? I know I do need to set the game to save every turn.

 

[Ronnie1]

I've got the save and will start working on the PPP. Are there any BUFFY Mod settings that I will need to change? I know I do need to set the game to save every turn.

No other changes required...just set that .ini file to save every turn and save 10+ saves.

 

[Ronnie1]

Victoria has spent 0 espionage on us in 2 turns.

What can we learn from this?

1) She has already dedicated 1 point to each of 4 rivals.
2) She hates somebody and has dedicated ALL her points at that rival.

#2 seems like a stretch because she has no religion....why would she hate someone?

So it seems to me that #1 is closer to the truth.

Research for the next set?

There are 11 options from Meditation to Machinery and lots in between.

If GLib is our goal, that looks to be about 40+ turns out if we go Aesthetics > Literature. That number is of course an estimate and will vary with scientists being worked (less turns) and cities being planted (more turns).

Pyramids are still ~40 turns out also, so not much help from Representation in that time frame.

Short term goals for Thorn's turnset???

How soon do we want the WB in FH? 1 turn faster if we work citizen instead of coast.

 

[adrianj]

Ron - I agree that Vic probably has contact with 4 or more other AI. Possible map maker has given all AIs contact with eachother. Also possible that the English archer we found has been world buildered in there, and her actual lands are not even reachable by galley.

Decisions
1) Quite important - Where to build Pyramids. CC is the original plan, but FH may also be worth considering.
2) Once we decide 1), what build order will get us there fastest? Eg, when do we fit library into the queue? Does FH build a lighthouse?
3) Do we prioritise in FH to get a GProphet sooner, and chance at a GScientist?
4) Shoot for Currency or Literature first? Where does Maths fit in?

My thoughts on these things:
1) I don't think we should rush into this. Some testing would be worthwhile I think.
2) Depends on 1...
3) My preference I think is to not build Library in FH, as at this stage we can benefit more from the settlers it could be building instead.
4) My pick is beeline Aesthetics->Literature before Maths.

Other stuff:
Eastern exploring WB can keep heading east. My preference is to not cut corners, as it would be irritating to miss possible coastal links. Keep the galley around our cities, so it can ferry workers/settlers as required. The next WB to be built I think should explore to the west.

 

[mabraham]

I think mab and aj are actually asking for different things on the exploring, so I want us to discuss it a bit more.

If I understand correctly, (which is always questionable)....

mab says go fastest out, basically take the shortest route.

aj says to hit the corners looking for coastal access to another island group.

Sometimes these choices will lead to the same route, but sometimes they won't. In the past, I have mostly tried to go the corner route looking for that opportunity to link to further exploration on the diagonal that at first may go unnoticed.

Earlier knowledge of the location (and non-location!) of critical resources is very important, and we have to take all our chances to gather intelligence. So our local galley scouting should be focussed on making sure we see all tiles that are visible from all potential city sites, and finding island-island contacts by making sure we visit all three extremal coast tiles at the ends of peninsulas. The eastern workboat is so far away now that settling out there is not realistic in the time before we would send another scout that way, so it should focus on travelling east as fast as it can while maximizing fog busted.

I was trying to differentiate local exploration (where we care about every possible BFC square, and every resource location, and every possible continuation of the island chain for putting new settlements out) from far-field exploration (where we care about meeting new AIs, finding their homelands, establishing trade routes, and circumnavigating).

The former is maximized by thoroughness - we want all the data on the sea and land that we can acquire while we're in the current area, and don't want to spend the time to come back and finish the job, because we'll have other exploring to do. aj and I were saying the same things here. I talked about visiting all three extremal coast tiles of a peninsula, and he talked about not cutting corners, which amounts to the same thing. We want to visit every coast tile that is only diagonally adjacent to land if that tile will see unexplored ocean.

The latter is maximized by increasing the average speed of the WB, by not investigating every fiddly corner of every bay and peninsula - odds are we'll never want to come back to this route and we're more likely to find things out by travelling further than by ekeing out information right next to where the WB is now, because the local neighbourhood is already unlikely to have AI units or homelands because we haven't met them here yet. They are somewhere, though, so we want to get somewhere else ASAP. Also, we don't want this WB crunched off early by a barb galley, so we want to make serious waves...

So "Cook" (let's name the units something unique, Cook went east to Australia, so call the east-heading WB "Cook") is trying to travel far and fast to the east and doesn't much care what he learns on the way. Our galley, "Ferry" makes sure it gets to see every tile that it could possibly see. Our west-heading WB, "Magellan", might start heading NW to get some thorough data around those northern islands, and then heads SW Cook-style.

 

[Ronnie1]

I just sent everyone an email with a test save played out to T151 for evaluation.

EDIT: X-post with mab

I am clear as to what you are saying now on the exploration. Thanks for the clarity.

Going back to have another go at the test game....

As a side note for the game I sent....at relatively low odds...<30% I think...I got a GS that was settled in CC. I obviously ended up building a Library and running scientists in FH because I felt a 3rd settler was going to slow down the tech rate too much.

4) Shoot for Currency or Literature first? Where does Maths fit in?

I think we need to go Literature 1st....we will be ready for it when it comes in.

 

[Thorn]

Naming the units might be a good idea. I just noticed that what's being called WB4 (the east explorer) is actually named WB3 in the game.

 

[mabraham]

Naming the units might be a good idea. I just noticed that what's being called WB4 (the east explorer) is actually named WB3 in the game.

Sure, the first WB was built in my turn set, and I hate the numerical naming, so I have it turned off.

 

[Ronnie1]

Emailed another test game out for review at T151.