SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

I think we fortify the fish and hope the barb hits it and dies? Also, put a 1h into another galley in Gold, for a potential whip next turn. Not sure what else.
Edit: oops - pop3. Can't whip for 2t...

 

[LowtherCastle]

So we've got a problem. I suppose our best alternative is to send our galley to the clam nets and hope the barb galley attacks and loses. As a backup, we could either start a galley somewhere (GOld, Marble) or a trireme starting next turn.

Man, if we're the only team to get this BS, that will sukex.

xpost: We've got 3 movement now. FOrgot to note that we circummed.

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BTW: END OF TURNSET. Report is here.

 

[LowtherCastle]

THoughts:

1. Willem might threaten our CoL date, so I didn't sign OBs with him yet.
2. Our northern wb has 1 more movement this turn. Do we OB Willem?
3. Galleys need ~9t to VIckie, galleons only ~5t!
4. I don't have time to update the test map. If you're going to do it, Dhoom, Masonry had the last 2t with 1 AI knowing it. We got 3cpt trade routes in all four cities immediately with writing.
5. We should strongly consider putting some warrior sentries in various locations to ward off the barb galleys. Probably cheaper than multiple triremes and we could always use them later as garrisons. Barb galleys "see" and beeline our seafood from 7 tiles away.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

So we've got a problem. I suppose our best alternative is to send our galley to the clam nets and hope the barb galley attacks and loses. As a backup, we could either start a galley somewhere (GOld, Marble) or a trireme starting next turn.

Well, it is really nice that we managed to drop off Warrior 2 before this Barb Galley appeared. It is also great that we managed to Circumnavigate, so things are still looking up overall.

Whipping anything besides a Library in Gold City is going to throw off our Great Scientist timing, but the same can be said if that Barb Galley is allowed to Pillage two of our Fishing nets, so we might have no choice.


Off of the top of my head, it looks like we have 2 alternatives:
1. Ignore that Barb Galley for now (keeping our Galley alive) and sacrificing 2 Seafood nets while we work on preparing for a Trireme to take on the Barb Galley

2. Prepare to sacrifice our Galley (by defending, not attacking), potentially lose the fight, and still lose our 2 Seafood nets


Option 1 lets us skip the Trireme and replacement Work Boats if we win, giving us the bigger payoff.

Option 2 accepts some loss as inevitable but keeps our Galley alive.


3. A third option is to try and "bait" the Barb Galley by staying in place and hoping that it chases our Galley around... I'm not certain how likely a Barb Galley is to chase a regular Galley... does anyone know?

4. A fourth option is to attack the Galley at poor odds. Not an option that I would recommend.

5. A fifth option is to start building a Work Boat in Gold City this turn and whip it next turn. We'll need at least 1 replacement Work Boat if the Barb Galley pillages the Clam's net. However, what we'd do is send that Work Boat three squares away from the Barb Galley and then hope that the Barb Galley decides to chase it instead of pillaging the Fish net. Then, we would just lure the Barb Galley away.

6. Combine options 2 and 5, such that we'll hope that our Galley will win a defensive fight, but that if it doesn't, we'll still be able to whip a Work Boat that will HOPEFULLY be able to convince the Barb Galley to chase the Work Boat in circles (or towards the AIs).


Since Triremes and Galleys cost as much as each other (75 Hammers), I think that I'd rather see us building a Trireme instead of a second Galley. Well, we might need a second Galley if the first one dies, but only for transporting units around--I'd rather fight the next Barb Galley fight with a Trireme. For this fight, we have no choice to use a Trireme: we will either use a Galley or we won't fight.

It does kind of suck to "give up" on our two Seafood nets (2 * 45 Hammers = 90 Hammers), but it would be worse to lose those two Seafood nets plus a Galley.

Building a Work Boat is something that we plan to do in Gold City soon anyway, so there's no harm in starting on building a Work Boat in Gold City on this turn, no matter which option we choose.

If the Work Boat lure works, we won't necessarily lose 2 Seafood nets.



There is no easy answer here. However, I would say that at a minimum, switch Gold City's current build item to a Work Boat.

Then, if the Barb Galley isn't dead on the next turn (because we lost a defensive fight or chose not to fight), we should start a Trireme build somewhere... but where? Only Paris or Gold City could whip a Trireme within any reasonable timeframe. It's probably going to have to be Paris, at the cost of delaying the Forge. At least the Hammer overflow (75 Hammers cost with 90 Hammers from whipping) gives us some overflow Hammers that will go towards making the Forge into a later 3-pop-whip, right?

That still leaves us needing to decide whether we should try to defend our Clam with our Galley versus keeping our Galley where it is (3 squares away from the Barb Galley) in hopes of "luring" the Barb Galley into chasing us.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

THoughts:

1. Willem might threaten our CoL date, so I didn't sign OBs with him yet.
2. Our northern wb has 1 more movement this turn. Do we OB Willem?

I think that you answered your own question: no, because we don't want to turn his Trade Routes (which might only be worth 1 Commerce each if he does not have Open Borders and did not settle on separate land masses, or only 2 Commerce each if he does not have Open Borders and did settle on separate land masses).

3. Galleys need ~9t to VIckie, galleons only ~5t!

Us and what army? No Horse (that we know of--and it will take even longer to find if we skip Animal Husbandry), no Copper, nowhere near Iron Working. I think that we'll just have to wait to attack, particularly with us having to first deal with Barb Galleys.

We can at least be thankful that Triremes don't require Copper in order to be able to build them.

4. I don't have time to update the test map. If you're going to do it, Dhoom, Masonry had the last 2t with 1 AI knowing it. We got 3cpt trade routes in all four cities immediately with writing.

Okay, thanks for the info. I can see if I can make some time to update the test game.

Did any AI know Writing before we learned it? I.e. Were we only able to Open Borders after we learned Writing? That detail won't matter for a test map, I'm just curious to know.

5. We should strongly consider putting some warrior sentries in various locations to ward off the barb galleys. Probably cheaper than multiple triremes and we could always use them later as garrisons. Barb galleys "see" and beeline our seafood from 7 tiles away.

Maybe... but we'd need Galleys (which cost as much as Triremes) in order to put these Warriors into place. I'm not sure that it would actually be cheaper, but it's definitely something that we'll want to strongly consider doing... I'm just not sure where we'd fit this stuff into our build order. Is giving up on The Pyramids an option that leaves a bad taste in the mouth or is it something that we might consider doing?


EDIT: By the way, nicely played turnset! Even better was how you seemed to constantly keep finding ways of improving our micro.

 

[LowtherCastle]

One thing I noticed in the tests was that the barb galleys usually come in multiples. Not sure there's anything different about this map to change that, but we could try to figure out how many are likely to spawn near us.

Triremes are a way to speed up the Pyramids, btw.

 

[babybluepants]

Can't see anything definitive in DanF's post.

I think we'll have to move our galley to clam and hope for the best. It's 68% odds, I think.

Gold is just short of growth to 4 this turn, so we may as well wait for next turn and start a trireme instead of a galley.

A WB for chasing is a viable option, as well, but doesn't give us backup in case of a battle loss.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Okay, I have updated the test game.

Whoever plays next has at least a start of a PPP to work with from our latest "PPP SG13 T72 for Oracle MC + Pyramids updated yet again5" spreadsheet.

Some items in the spreadsheet will almost certainly be "incorrect artifacts from prior test runs" that will not apply. Other items might no longer be exactly correct based on slight changes that LC made to Gold City.


The good part is that I think that I was able to get the test game reasonably accurate...
I made Joao in our test game equal to Willem in our real game, such that we are trading a Fish for his Pig, have not Opened Borders with him, and have set Espionage to him.

The Espionage Points total is off, but I don't think that this detail will really matter... who cares if we find out what he's researching in the test game... it won't be the same as in the real game (plus it's really a different AI filling-in for Willem, anyway).

Still, I think that I got most other things right, including Open Borders with Vicky and Isabella, Cathy having The Great Lighthouse (although built on the wrong turn), and the correct Food + Hammer + Flask + Gold values across our empire.


Spain built Stonehenge in our test game, but since I don't think that we care about going for this Wonder, I just let it happen (actually, I didn't notice at the time and I really don't want to go back and redo it for such an irrelevant detail).


I even put the Barb Galley in our test game, so you can play around with the test game if you want to confirm the combat odds of defending on the Clam, if you'd like.


Note that I did not alter the terrain except in places that would allow us to get Trade Routes and/or Resource trades. Unless we're going to change where we are going to build a City, I don't really see the point of trying to make the terrain match up too closely... if it becomes important to do so, then it can still be changed.

 

[mdy]

I think we should close borders with Izzy to reduce the chances of her religion spreading to us.

As for the early barbs galleys, they are going to be a major headache and I think we sre going to have to build a couple of early triemes to counter them-unfortunately it looks like there are too many surroundings to fog bust effectively.

Every 5 turns we delay hiring scientists in gold will delay astro by 1T if we don't get it before we revolt to CS/pacifism, otherwise it won't delay us at all (assuming we have no problems spreading religion), so I don't think delaying the library in gold will be too catastrophic.

As for the current barb galley I would rather take a 1/3 risk of losing a 60 hammer galley, than a 100% chance of losing 2 worboats (90 hammers). We could also replace the galley with 1 whip instead of 2.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Barb Galleys

1. The barb galleys will keep spawning for a long time to come. Killing them only guarantees that more will spawn. So fogbusting is the preferred long-term solution.
2. Eventually, we want a warrior on Deer Island and Copper Island. Then we're only concerned with the east and southwest routes = two, maybe three, triremes. But triremes are wasted hammers, in the Big Picture. They'll never become frigates.
3. Until we get a warrior on Deer Island, a wb getting chased around Fur Island would be a nice solution, if we could safely get it to work. This keeps that barb galley from re-spawning and also both the barb galley and our wb prevent any barb galley from re-spawning within two tiles of each other.
4. Our exploring wbs are now road kill. The one near Willem should probably try to beeline home. If successful, that will help ease our production troubles, freeing Marble, for example, to whip a trireme instead of a wb.
5. We know where Ragnar is, so the only question is where is the 6th AI. I'm assuming it's to the west of Izzy, south of Vicky. Buddhism has spread a lot, so I assume that AI is close to Izzy. I would turn the wb around as soon as we meet the missing AI, so we can hopefully also meet Ragnar, if our wb can somehow survive. So I wouldn't close borders with Izzy until our wb has a chance to feed the barbs or meet the missing AI AND make its way back through Izzy toward Ragnar.

6. Delaying the Gold library jeopardizes our CoL run. It's not just the GS-born-on date.
7. Somehow, we need a granary in Marble asap.

8. Thank goodness we beelined MC.
9. Thank goodness we're beelining Astro.

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One possible solution:
1. Galley to clam nets, take our chances. (Even if he survives, he'll have to heal before he can defend again, so we still need a trireme or two asap.)
2. Decide on a rationale, whether to OB willem and send our wb home through him or send the wb past the dyes home. Which is safer? The dyes path has a few more spawnworthy tiles, but it may be more traveled by wbs, making it safer.
3. Build wb in Gold for 1t.
4. Start building a trireme in Marble asap.
5. In Paris, 4pop the forge asap, then put 1t of non-OF hammers into a trireme after finishing the Marble wb.

 

[LowtherCastle]

Can't see anything definitive in DanF's post.

What I see is:

Test 1 will fail if we put our galley there because the clam nets are the only possible target next turn.
Test 2 will succeed and the barb galley will attack our galley.

Later, if we can get a wb out safely, then Test 2 can be used to keep Test 1 failing for barb galleys coming from Horse Island and Test 2 will also prevent Test 3 from being carried out for those barb galleys. The problem with this technique is meeting the barb galley. It's 50-50 whether he runs into us with 1/2 or 0/2 movement points. BUt if we can get our wb to the top of the 3-tile island, then it can scout 1N-1S each turn and will be safe.

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Another possibility is to put our galley on our fish. Then we have a 50% chance the barb galley will pillage our clams and a 50% chance he'll attack our galley...

 

[LowtherCastle]

Okay, here's another possiblity.

Turn 0
Our galley se-ne

IT
50% chance barb galley pillages clam nets, if not, we're home free by making sure the barb galley chases our galley everywhere.
If the barb galley pillages our clam nets:

Turn 1
Our galley 2n

IT
The barb galley will come after our galley, but could go 2e, in which case we're home free again, or e-se, in which case we're back to a 50% chance he'll attack the fish nets...

I'd take the first 50% chance if we could prevent it from having the second chance, but I don't see how we can.

 

[RRRaskolnikov]

Hi folks, I got a new connection yesterday (took just about 2 weeks ), I have some catch up to do though... it's great to be here again!

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I think we should close borders with Izzy to reduce the chances of her religion spreading to us.

The explanation given by code-diggers is that Religion can spread despite Open Borders: all that you need is a Trade Network connection.

That said, I tend to believe what you say in that I, personally, have seen anecdotal evidence that Opening Borders tends to increase the chance of Religious spread.

I would tend to think of it being a slightly increased chance, just like having Open Borders makes a Spy Mission slightly cheaper.


Regardless, I would also prefer it if one of our Cities got her Religion. Yes, yes, it may cost us, say, 120 additional Hammers for 2 Missionaries to spread our State Religion to the City that gets her Religion (2 times 60 Hammers... one Missionary failing and then another one succeeding).

However, Isabella is relatively easy to manipulate if you choose to share her Religion, which we could choose to do once we've grabbed our Great People and are done with Pacifism.


I think that this small cost is well worth even being able to bribe a single AI into a war... wouldn't it be reasonable to pay a cost cheaper than 2 Axemen in order to make an AI bribeable against another AI? Chances are that we'll have the tech lead with which to bribe AIs into war with each other; our tricky point will getting them Pleased or Friendly enough to want to take our techs in exchange for a war delcaration.

Religion just might be the answer.

As for the current barb galley I would rather take a 1/3 risk of losing a 60 hammer galley, than a 100% chance of losing 2 worboats (90 hammers). We could also replace the galley with 1 whip instead of 2.

Okay, so it sounds like we have one vote for moving the Galley to the Clam.

In addition, we can start to build a Work Boat in Gold City this turn "for free," giving us a backup option (a Work Boat that can be whipped to lure the Barb Galley around in circles until we can build a Trireme elsewhere).

Since we are scheduled to start building a Work Boat in less than 15 turns from now (15 turns is the point when we'd start to lose accumulated Hammers on a Work Boat) and since we have already accumulated sufficient Hammers in our Library in order to be able to 2-pop-whip it, there is no delay in the Library's completion date by putting 1 turn worth of Hammers into a Work Boat now.

In fact, I confirmed and we will still get our Monument with a couple of turns to spare in Gold City (i.e. a couple of turns before we'd need the +1 Happiness), so putting a Work Boat as our current build item in Gold City will not hurt us at all... we'll just have to whip it if the Galley loses the fight or remember to switch back to working the Library if the Galley wins the fight.

 

[shyuhe]

LC! Unfortunate about that stupid galley though I'd prefer to take my odds on the 1/3 loss defending the clams but I don't feel too strongly about it. We will need triremes though.

Ras - do you want to take the next set? I think you were originally up for the set LC played

 

[babybluepants]

I'm still for defending the clam net. It's good odds that we don't need any emergency actions. Otherwise, I'd leave things as they are for the moment. If the galley loses the battle, we start a trireme in Gold next turn and whip the turn after. The barb galley will be damaged and won't have a chance to pillage both nets before the trireme hit - we do lose clams, though, so we'd need to get a WB in Marble, I guess. Getting a trireme kill is good for XP, too. They're typically hard to come by on water.

We should actually get a consensus on this barb galley issue and just play out the next couple of turns quickly, I think. It's hard to plan the next TS not knowing the food situation in Gold.

 

[Mitchum]

I vote for defending our clam net as well. There is a decent chance that we'll win the battle.

Regarding Astronomy, are we still 100% sold that we need to tech that far? There's a very good chance that all AI will be reachable via galley. So, would it potentially be faster to learn IW, Construction, CS and Machinery and then use maces and cats on 3-movement galleys? Forget the Pyramids, Philosophy, GSs, etc. After IW, we may even be able to take an AI or two out with axes and swords while waiting for maces... Sure, galleons would make the logistics of moving troops around easier, but starting a warring earlier makes things easier too. I just want to make sure that we reconsider this Astronomy decision now that we know that Astonomy isn't mandatory.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Astronomy

Regarding Astronomy, are we still 100% sold that we need to tech that far?

Getting Astronomy has several benefits, in addition to being able to get to the AIs a bit quicker:
1. We will have access to Caravels and Galleons, meaning that the Barb Galley problem goes from being a major issue to a very minor one. If we attack the AIs with Galleys, we will need several Trireme support vessels otherwise we will risk having AIs and/or Barbs sinking our loaded Galleys

2. If a Barb City appears between us and our trading partner, we'll still be able to trade, since Astronomy will let us trade across Ocean squares. It would be nice to just ignore most or all Barb Cities, but if we don't get Astronomy and a Barb City cuts off our trade routes (either to another AI or between our main Cities and our captured Cities) then we'll have to detour our slower-moving Galleys in order to take out said Barb City. Also, the more Barb Cities that exist (in locations that we weren't going to settle anyway), the less Cities that the AIs can place on the map, which means fewer Cities that we will have to conquer

3. We can position boats to strike from a good position at the start of any war. A good part of naval success comes from surprise attacks. With Galleys, we will often have to start from the "edges" of an AI's Cultural borders, meaning that we'll be attacking one of their low-production border Cities. This situation will allow the AI's core Cities to pump out a bunch of defending units before we can get within range of said Cities. With Galleons, we can go right for the throat and attack their capitol and/or high-production Cities before said Cities have a chance to contribute significantly during the war with additional defenders.


So, yes, I am still sold on the Astronomy approach.



Dealing with the Barb Galley
I don't really care whether or not we attempt to defend the Clam, since getting a Work Boat built for luring purposes will work regardless (at the cost of a Clam net if we don't defend). So, what I care about is that we build the Work Boat in Gold City before ending the turn... doing so won't hurt us and it also won't stop us from switching to a Trireme on the following turn should we wish to do so.

Since it sounds like the common vote is to defend the Clam with the Galley, then I would say that:
a) If we win that defensive fight, then switch the build queue from having a Work Boat that has 1-turn-worth of Hammers in it back to a build queue having these items in order: Library -> Monument -> Work Boat
OR
b) If we lose that defensive fight, then leave the Work Boat queued-up but don't whip it, so that we can vote on whether or not to whip the Work Boat or to start on a Trireme


I'm not sure who is on deck for this mini-turnset... is LC done playing for now? If yes, then we need to be clear in our communication so that two different people don't take the saved game.

If someone else takes on the turnset, then it's worth "playing the game for real"... i.e. watching out for other aspects of the game beyond that one Barb Galley (no single-minded focus here, folks!), as well as taking the relevant screenshots for the following turn.

Note that playing out one more turn and uploading it may tell other teams what we Oracled, if anyone really cares about this kind of an "information leak."

 

[shyuhe]

We're pretty much last in line for playing so I don't think anybody else will benefit from seeing what we oracled.

 

[Mitchum]

Getting Astronomy has several benefits, in addition to being able to get to the AIs a bit quicker:

Snip...

So, yes, I am still sold on the Astronomy approach.

Agreed that warring with Astronomy will be much easier. My question is related to speed (i.e. how quickly we can win the game), not how easy it will be.

Note that playing out one more turn and uploading it may tell other teams what we Oracled, if anyone really cares about this kind of an "information leak."

If we win the battle, there is really no need to upload the save if we choose not to do so, right?