SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[mdy]

Actually, Taoism has spread quite a lot... it also exists in Paris and in Iron City. But, wait, I don't see our Taoist Missionary. So, I guess that one of those spreads was done manually.

I actually disbanded it as we had absolutely zero use for it, and it saved on maintenance.

For some reason, Pig City seems to have 3 Great Artist GPP. Perhaps an Artist Specialist got auto-assigned when we grew 1 population point due to our borders not having expanded to their fat cross yet and the City Governor being "too smart" for his own good.

The Artificial Idiot seems to be keen on hiring an artist in that city on every turn. I switched it back when it grew to size 6, but it rehired one the next turn without me noticing, and we are going to have to change the MM in pigs slightly as a result. Fortunately this MM issue should go away in a few turns, and our GP plan only has a 0.4% chance of being affected.

Granary (finish building it) -> Work Boat (for its Clam) -> Lighthouse -> Trireme or Barracks (depending upon whether or not we lose another Trireme)

I was thinking we could hire an engineer instead of a scientist in the capital and build the second WB for iron city there before the barracks.

Trireme for the west (finish building it) -> Trireme for the east -> Forge -> Barracks

I agree. We get the same number of total hammers regardless of whether we work the workshop or desert hill continually first, so I propose to work the hill to get the second trieme earlier.

OR, if Paris will continue hiring Specialists:
Gold City build order:
Trireme (finish the current one) -> Work Boat -> Barracks

Gold city will shortly have a production of 1 hammer per turn. We won't build anything there, and the capital couldn't build the second till T168 unless we work mines instead of specialists, which we can't afford to do yet.

Once our Research is done, do you think that we might build some Spies and spend a portion of our Commerce on Espionage? In particular:

If we had a significant amount of spare beakers at the end we could do it, but this would depend entirely on what we would be able to trade with the AI for. Even then I think the cost of bringing down the AI's defences will be significant compared to the amount of espionage we could generate.

 

[mdy]

2. Cancel Marble <-> Cathy's Cow deal
3. Cancel Pig <-> Cathy's Sheep deal
4. Trade Marble <-> Cathy's Cow
5. Trade Pig <-> Cathy's Sheep

What would this accomplish? It seems to leave us with exactly the same resources as before, and thre is no guarantee that the AI would be willing to make the same trade again. I have seen them refuse before.

Joao does appear to have a 2nd source of Horse, which could be dangerous if he trades it to another AI i

Why would this be a problem? If the AI must build some military units better they be horse units than any other type.

I have put my revised plan below. All being well I can play till T167 (just before the start of the GA) tomorrow.




By city:

Pigs:
T150 pigs works sefood+coast.
T151 grow to size 7. Work 2 seafood, mine and 4 scientists.
T152 work 2 seafood and hire 5 scientists
T154 warrior built. Start Barracks. Use warrior for stone garrison.
T172 Generates GP5. 100%GS for astro


Marble:
T154 Build warrior for exploration/barb warning. Start Barracks
T167 Generates GP4 for golden age.
T167 Start golden age.


Gold:
T153 Build Trieme. Starts Barracks. Hire 2 scientist instead of working gold and seafood
T156 Generates GP2 100% GS for astro. Work 3 seafood+6 specialists
T174 work 2 seafood+7 specialists
T176 Generates GP6 at 100% for engineering


Capital:
T150 Start WB, hire 1 engineer
T159 Build WB. Start barracks.
T161 Generates GP3. This will be used for machinery if it is a GE or optics if it is a GS.
T171 Finish barracks. Start axe (will be converted to mace)

Stone:
T152 grow to size 4, work desert hill
T155 Finish trieme. Start trieme.
T161 Finish trieme, Start forge.
T164 grow to size 5, work workshop
T173 Build forge. Start Barracks
T176 Finish barracks. Start galleon

Iron:
granary-lighthouse-warrior-barracks
Work iron-clam-plains hill-second clam

Barb/Ragnar Defense:

In the long one I propose keeping 1 trieme 1S of the gold fish, 1 3W of the fish south of gold, and one to protect the iron nets.


The galley will pick up the warrior being built in marble and send it to explore William/Catherines landmass.

Espionage:

Switch to putting 50% of our espionage on William and Victoria.

Research:

Civil Service(stop 1T before completion)-optics/machinery. What we tech next depends on what we think we can get from the AI's in trade, and what GP we get in Paris. To do this I will put our research to 0% for 3 turns to delay CS. Turning this gold back into beakers should not be a problem given the highly limited amount of gold we will be able to trade with the AI for.


This leaves us in a position to finish our research, GP generation, and revolt on T176.

Diplomacy:

Don't open borders with Jao, and don't trade for monarchy. Trade alphabet to Victoria for 60 gold+archery.
Trade hunting to Izzy for 50 gold.

Cancel clam gift to Ragnar, and then try to trade it to him for 1GPT. Try demanding 1 gold from him if it looks like he is going to attack us before he DOW's.

Trade for aesthetics/compass/calendar/construction as soon as they become available for trade.

By Date:

T150 pigs works sefood+coasts.
T150 Start WB, hire 1 engineer.
T150 Set research to 0%
T151 Pigs grows to size 7. Work 2 seafood, mine and 4 scientists.
T152 Pigs works 2 seafood and hire 5 scientists
T152 Stone grows to size 4, work desert hill
T153 Gold builds Trieme. Starts Barracks. Hire 2 scientist instead of working gold and seafood
T154 Pigs builds warrior. Start Barracks. Use warrior for stone garrison.
T154 Marble builds warrior for exploration.
T154 Stone builds trieme. Start trieme.
T154 Set research to 100%.
T156 Gold generates GP2 100% GS for astro. Work 3 seafood+6 specialists
T159 Capital builds WB for iron city. Starts barracks
T161 Capital generates GP3. This will be used for machinery if it is a GE or optics if it is a GS.
T161 Stone builds second trieme, starts forge.
T164 Stone grows to size 5, work workshop
T167 Marble generates GP4 for golden age.
T167 Start golden age.
T171 Capital finishes barracks, start axe (will be converted to a mace)
T172 Pigs generates GP5. 100%GS for astro
T173 Stone builds forge. Start Barracks
T174 Gold works 2 seafood+7 specialists
T176 Gold generates GP6 at 100%GS for engineering
T176 Stone builds barracks. Start galleon

 

[mdy]

Anyone got any ideas about how much gold we can safely ask/demand from the AI's should the opportunity arise?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

The Artificial Idiot seems to be keen on hiring an artist in that city on every turn. I switched it back when it grew to size 6, but it rehired one the next turn without me noticing, and we are going to have to change the MM in pigs slightly as a result. Fortunately this MM issue should go away in a few turns, and our GP plan only has a 0.4% chance of being affected.

Like I said, don't worry about the small chance of getting a Great Artist. The biggest concern was whether or not the City could grow faster on this turn, and it can if we switch the DesH Mine to a Coast, which it looks like you are planning to do where you have written the following in the latest PPP:

T150 pigs works sefood+coast.

I was thinking we could hire an engineer instead of a scientist in the capital and build the second WB for iron city there before the barracks.

Sure, as long as you have a plan to get a 2nd Work Boat for Clam City built.

Is there anywhere that you can also slot in a Work Boat for the Crab, to open up another trading possibility? Soon the AIs will likely start expanding... for example, we saw a double-Gem site in the west that might offer up a good trade, if we are ready for it. Perhaps, if you plan to build Granary -> Lighthouse in Iron City, you can build a Work Boat for the Crab after the Lighthouse.

I agree. We get the same number of total hammers regardless of whether we work the workshop or desert hill continually first, so I propose to work the hill to get the second trieme earlier.

I'm not sure how we'd get the same number of Hammers, unless you mean that by growing the next 2 times, you calculated that by working DesH Mine first and then the G Workshop would be the same as working the G Workshop first and then the DesH Mine.

If that's true, then one other difference is that once we are out of Caste System, the G Workshop will become pretty useless. But, as you say, we have a use for the Hammers now, so, sure, work the DesH Mine in Stone City next.

Gold city will shortly have a production of 1 hammer per turn. We won't build anything there, and the capital couldn't build the second till T168 unless we work mines instead of specialists, which we can't afford to do yet.

Hence my suggestion above to slot-in a Work Boat for the Crab. If that Crab ends up being worth +1 Happiness empire-wide, it will be a very worthwhile investment.

What would this accomplish? It seems to leave us with exactly the same resources as before, and thre is no guarantee that the AI would be willing to make the same trade again. I have seen them refuse before.

Well, just because you have seen something happen in one set of circumstances, does not mean that it will happen. Here, we are safe. Cathy has not increased the number of her Cities in a very long time. We have already successfully renegotiated these deals twice now--long after the time that she would have connected-up her Resources.

In addition, Cathy will trade Health Resources with just about anyone, even a player that she is Annoyed with. She is Cautious towards us, so she will be more than willing to make the trades.

What we accomplish, however, is removing the risk of further angering Isabella and Joao for having traded with their Worst Enemy. It's an easily-avoidable negative Diplo penalty and you also worked so hard to get Joao from being our Worst Enemy--it would be a shame to regain that title when with a simple cancel-and-retrade action we can greatly reduce that risk.

Why would this be a problem? If the AI must build some military units better they be horse units than any other type.

So, you would prefer to face Horse Archers, which can FLANK our Catapults, greatly reducing the effectiveness of our potential siege initiative, than additional Archers? No, thanks.

Additional Archers won't counter-attack our siege weapons, and once we get siege initiative on a City, then it doesn't matter if the City has 4 defenders or 10 defenders... we'll get 90%+ odds on the remaining fights. BUT, if our siege get badly wounded or destroyed due to Flanking damage, the battle can quickly turn in favour of the AI.

We'd also then need more stack defenders... you aren't going to see a 6.7 Health City Raider II Maceman get attacked by a Longbowman, but you can bet that an AI will throw its Horse Archer at you, giving you a good chance for your unit to die in the field before it can heal. That situation means having more stack defenders and thus needing a larger army of unit types that we'd rather skip if we could (more Maces + Cats/Trebs would be better than having to have too many additional stack defenders).

Pigs:
T154 warrior built. Start Barracks. Use warrior for stone garrison.

Stone City is not growing much, while it appears that you are buiding a Warrior in Iron City before a Barracks there because of the apparently-needed Military Police presence. Perhaps this Warrior would be better sent to Iron City, so that Iron City won't be forced to self-build a Warrior so soon.

T171 Finish barracks. Start axe (will be converted to mace)

I have been curious as to what this comment means... do you mean that we will build an Axeman and then pay to upgrade it to a Maceman or that the Axeman in the build queue will auto-convert to a Maceman?

Barb/Ragnar Defense:

In the long one I propose keeping 1 trieme 1S of the gold fish, 1 3W of the fish south of gold, and one to protect the iron nets.

Isn't that second Trireme, the one that is 3W of the fish, on a non-Coastal square and also kind of in the middle of nowhere? Why not position this Trireme closer to Ragnar, such that we'd gain a turn of visibility on any potential attack that he might make?

The galley will pick up the warrior being built in marble and send it to explore William/Catherines landmass.

I think that this move gives a potential for disaster. We should have a Galley in our empire. Losing the Trireme meant that we had to replace a second Galley with another Trireme build. We lost this exploration opportunity when we lost our Trireme. I think that we'd be spreading ourselves too thin not to have a Galley within our Island-based Empire.

Besides, having 1 more boat around could make the difference of a potential Ragnar incursion. The claim was that 2 Galleys would attack us, but they haven't--we saw them and they did not move out. Likely, he is building 3 or 4 Galleys before he attacks, and if we are the target, then we may need every boat that we can get to survive said attack.

I'm sorry, but in my mind, that's the cost of losing the Trireme: no room remaining in the plan to send a Galley off galavanting.


Honestly, if we have a Warrior to spare, I suggest that we do the following with it: send it to Ragnar's mainland, to rest somewhere near the Desert Iron at the tip (maybe 1 or two squares closer to Ragnar's capital). This advance scout, if positioned to be able to see a series of 3 Coast squares at a time (thus spotting any of Ragnar's Galleys coming) could make a huge difference in us losing a City or not by being able to get in position in time.

The "Galley + Warrior" scouting party was always a write-off, in that we couldn't be sure that they'd survive a Barb Galley attack. Unfortunately, with the loss of a Trireme (the same cost as its replacement, which will mean no 2nd Galley) means that we have already lost our 2nd Galley. We felt comfortable sending out a Galley because we would have had 2 of them. Now we won't. However, we will still have the Warrior, so we might as well get some strategic use out of him, right?

Research:

Civil Service(stop 1T before completion)

I still think that we will be better off stopping 2T before completion. What does that additional turn of research on a tech that we won't need for a while gain us now? Not a whole lot. What does it risk? It risks our entire Lightbulbing plan, which would mean that we might not be fighting for 1st or 2nd position but might end up fighting for 5th or 6th position. That's a pretty big risk and a lot of stress to put on yourself in terms of not accidentally advancing the turn.

If that 1 turn of difference means that we might have to start 1 turn earlier on a tech that we are hoping to get in trade (such as Compass or Aesthetics or whatever), potentially "wasting" a turn of Research if we get the tech in trade 1 turn later, then I am willing to pay that price in order to dramatically reduce our risk and to dramatically reduce the stress that will be placed on your shoulders should something go terribly wrong. Life happens. No one is immune to accidental misclicks, myself included.

-optics/machinery. What we tech next depends on what we think we can get from the AI's in trade, and what GP we get in Paris. To do this I will put our research to 0% for 3 turns to delay CS. Turning this gold back into beakers should not be a problem given the highly limited amount of gold we will be able to trade with the AI for.

Where does Compass fit into that plan? Are we hoping to get it in trade?

Try demanding 1 gold from [Ragnar] if it looks like he is going to attack us before he DOW's.

That idea is a very neat one. Unforutnately, our Power must be greater than his or we must get him to be Pleased with us for it to work. We will be unable to get our Power sufficiently high during your turnset. If he is not Pleased with us, then I would strongly recommend against making this Demand.

A needless -1 negative Diplo point can't really help matters. It might also hurt matters, in terms of being able to negotiate a peace treaty and potentially get Open Borders from him after a war, so that we can reach Cathy, our "first war target." It seems like it would be counter-productive to have to stay at war with Ragnar just to be able to pass through his lands if Cathy will be our first target.
EDIT: I was thinking about Galleys there and, of course, we'll have Galleons and thus can sail past his Closed Borders. Still, I don't see a valid reason to anger him with no chance of getting him to delay any such attack.

Trade for aesthetics/compass/calendar/construction as soon as they become available for trade.

Since there aren't likely to be very many such possibilities, I'd ask that you pause play and describe your trading intentions in the thread whenever such a situation arises, and then wait for a bit of confirming/denying feedback.

There is no doubt that we will want these techs, but there are a lot of intricacies involved. For example, we might decide as a group to trade the AI different techs than you had initially planned to do... and you might even agree with such a different suggestion. Also, we might decide to turn around and trade the newly-received tech to others, or we might decide to keep it. We might even decide to wait for a while to make a trade... say, to see if another AI gets it as a trading option, so that we can "spread around" who gets which techs from us. We might even decide to trade away 2 techs for 1 tech but then choose to wait a few turns to see if the AI can also come up with some Gold to throw in as part of the trading deal.

It is easy to miss opportunities when you have the pressure of being the active player, where you have so many details to check and keep track of. So, why not consult the team and use us to your advantage to help you out?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Anyone got any ideas about how much gold we can safely ask/demand from the AI's should the opportunity arise?

We'd need to know the dates that we met each of the AIs. Maybe someone remembers this info or has an easy way of obtaining it and can provide it.

Once we have that info, then the numbers can be determined either by some code-digging or simulating them in a test game.

 

[babybluepants]

Silu did this in SG11 and also some of our other SG's (no happy or Taxman). I could try looking up later tonight, It's related to turns known, power ratio, previous begs, attitude and (maybe) LT status. So, yes, we'd need to know turns known as a first step.

 

[mdy]

Is there anywhere that you can also slot in a Work Boat for the Crab, to open up another trading possibility? Soon the AIs will likely start expanding... for example, we saw a double-Gem site in the west that might offer up a good trade, if we are ready for it.

I don't think an extra happiness or health resource would do us much good as no cities are in danger of exceeding the health/happiness cap. Once we start whipping again things will be different.

Depending on what we are able to trade for with the AI we might be able to build it in the capital by firing speicalist after it has generated it's GP. Alternatively we could build one in stone after the forge. Both these possibilities are fairly long term and don't need to be decided now.

If we built a WB in iron we would not be able to finish the WB, granary, lighthouse, and barracks till T177.

I'm not sure how we'd get the same number of Hammers, unless you mean that by growing the next 2 times, you calculated that by working DesH Mine first and then the G Workshop would be the same as working the G Workshop first and then the DesH Mine.

Yes the extra hammers we gain by working the desert mine, are precisely cancelled out by the extra hammers we would gain by growing to size 5 earlier.

What we accomplish, however, is removing the risk of further angering Isabella and Joao for having traded with their Worst Enemy. It's an easily-avoidable negative Diplo penalty and you also worked so hard to get Joao from being our Worst Enemy--it would be a shame to regain that title when with a simple cancel-and-retrade action we can greatly reduce that risk.

I don't see how renegaotiating these deals will help our diplo relations.

So, you would prefer to face Horse Archers, which can FLANK our Catapults, greatly reducing the effectiveness of our potential siege initiative, than additional Archers? No, thanks.

I hope we will be going to war with trebs not cats, and flanking only works if the enemy unit survives the battle. One or two pikemen in the stack will cut this to low levels, and this wouldn't affect our CR abilities, as once you have thrown several trebs at a city the weakest units will be so badly damaged it won't matter whether you attack them with maces or pikes.

Stone City is not growing much, while it appears that you are buiding a Warrior in Iron City before a Barracks there because of the apparently-needed Military Police presence. Perhaps this Warrior would be better sent to Iron City, so that Iron City won't be forced to self-build a Warrior so soon.

The warrior is being built because it was started before the start of my turnset, and we don't exactly have a better use for it.

I have been curious as to what this comment means... do you mean that we will build an Axeman and then pay to upgrade it to a Maceman or that the Axeman in the build queue will auto-convert to a Maceman?

It means we will finish CS and machinery before it gets built, so the build will be converted into a mace.

Likely, he is building 3 or 4 Galleys before he attacks, and if we are the target, then we may need every boat that we can get to survive said attack.

I'm sorry, but in my mind, that's the cost of losing the Trireme: no room remaining in the plan to send a Galley off galavanting.

Given that the land units would mass in the same city as the galleys, and there were only 2 defensive archers there when our WB scouted the city I thi nk it is more likely that he is still building up his land units. 3-4 galleys seems too big for an AI assault force at this stage of the game. The price of the lost trieme is the delay to the forge in stone. Our naval strength on the current plan is exactly what it would have been if we had not lot the trieme (once the replacement is rebuilt). If we had thecapacity for exploration before, we have it now. The reason I want to scout that landmass is so we can scout out Russia, so we can attack her with the minimum acceptable number of units, and we don't have to send more just in case she is stronger than we thought/her capital is on a hill.

Where does Compass fit into that plan? Are we hoping to get it in trade?

Ideally we would get it in trade. If we get a GS(likely we will have a reasonable chance of this as we would be able to research machinery first, otherwise we would have to self tech either compass/aesthetics/calendar/construction. Given the AI's normal tech preferences compass-optics would probably be best, unless a second AI discovers it before then.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I don't think an extra happiness or health resource would do us much good as no cities are in danger of exceeding the health/happiness cap. Once we start whipping again things will be different.

Okay, but "right now" is not the point of getting the Crab Netted at all. It is a forward-thinking plan.

Once we start whipping, the Resources won't be available for trade. They will have been traded-around amongst the AIs. If you want a Resource trade, you've got to be ready to grab it as soon as it comes available. You have a 1-turn leeway before an AI will go shopping around to other AIs. Once an AI-AI trade is in place, good luck practically finding a way to break it up in order for you to conveniently get the Resource.

At the moment, our only available Resource is the Stone, which we'll probably only give out if we are desperate for a Resource--it would be much better to have something else to offer. You know, like a Resource that won't encourage an AI to build City Walls and that we haven't seen much of on this map (such as a Crab).

And, no, it's not about +1 Health. It's about being ready and able to get +1 Happiness (such as getting a Gem from the double Gems location--worth +2 Happiness in Paris, by the way) by Netting a Crab.

Depending on what we are able to trade for with the AI we might be able to build it in the capital by firing speicalist after it has generated it's GP. Alternatively we could build one in stone after the forge. Both these possibilities are fairly long term and don't need to be decided now.

If we built a WB in iron we would not be able to finish the WB, granary, lighthouse, and barracks till T177.

Well, we can't expect to get +1 Happiness when we want it in the future unless we plan for it in advance and are ready to scoop it up when it becomes available.

I think that delaying at least the Warrior + Barracks in Iron City is worthwhile for a reasonable chance at +1 Happiness to fuel our future whipping.

Yes the extra hammers we gain by working the desert mine, are precisely cancelled out by the extra hammers we would gain by growing to size 5 earlier.

Okay, that situation makes perfect sense, as does your suggestion for dealing with it by working the DesH Mine first. Thank you for clarifying.

I don't see how renegaotiating these deals will help our diplo relations.

If you renegotiate the Resource trades with Cathy, they will be uncancellable for 10 turns. During that time period, another AI will fail any code check where a random number is thrown to ask you to "Stop Trading with their Worst Enemy if you have any currently-cancellable Resource Trades." Soon, we won't be able to stop the code check for having cancellable-Open-Borders with their Worst Enemy, but we can at least cover the Resource Trading angle by not having any valid-to-cancel Resource Trades.

It is not about directly helping our relations but directly lowering the chance of hurting our relations, which, since all negative and positive Diplo modifiers are summed together, actually turns out to indirectly be the same thing as increasing our Diplo relations. Even though it was never my claim that we'd be increasing our Diplo relations, we'd be essentially doing so compared to a scenario where we angered an AI needlessly, by avoiding an unnecessary negative Diplo modifier.

I hope we will be going to war with trebs not cats

Horse Archers' Flanking damage works equally well against Trebs as it does Cat. It is even more devastating to Trebs, as Cats are generally suicidal, but other than your first Treb, you hope that most of your Trebs will actually SURVIVE. Even a bit of damage to a Treb will drastically reduce its odds of surviving.

, and flanking only works if the enemy unit survives the battle. One or two pikemen in the stack will cut this to low levels,

Surviving a battle includes withdrawing. A Horse Archer, if it is going to lose a battle (to say, a Pikeman) has a chance to withdraw. This ability is intrinsic to a Horse Archer and can be increased with Flanking Promotions.

If the Horse Archer wins or withdraws, it produces flanking damage (a different kind of flanking from the Flanking Promotions) and that damage will act as collateral damage to all of our Trebuchets (and Catapults) in the stack. Even 1 successful Horse Archer withdrawl could dramatically affect the survival rates of our expensive Trebuchets--or alternatively, cause us to delay some turns while we heal the stack before attacking, allowing the AI to pump out more units.

and this wouldn't affect our CR abilities, as once you have thrown several trebs at a city the weakest units will be so badly damaged it won't matter whether you attack them with maces or pikes.

It would affect the CR abilities of our can-opener Trebuchets, which actually has a far bigger impact than would wounding a Maceman.

The warrior is being built because it was started before the start of my turnset, and we don't exactly have a better use for it.

Do we plan to keep AI Cities? If yes, it could be useful to have multiple Warriors for Military Police purposes. Unless, of course, we'd prefer to "tie up" our Macemen, Pikemen, etc in such duties.

It means we will finish CS and machinery before it gets built, so the build will be converted into a mace.

As far as I understood things, we weren't going to connect our Iron Resource until it was decided-upon. I haven't seen any mention of you wanting to hook-up the Iron in our PPP, so I have been assuming that it would not get connected within your turnset. Do you have plans to connect our Iron and if so, when?

Given that the land units would mass in the same city as the galleys, and there were only 2 defensive archers there when our WB scouted the city I thi nk it is more likely that he is still building up his land units.

As of BtS, I do not believe that it works this way. From my understanding, AIs will load their units onto Galleys/Galleons/Transports within their respective Cities. In Vanilla and Warlords, you could "see" which units were on a boat, and thus the unit manifest (the list of units on the boats) would be visible when you hovered your mouse over the City. Now that Military Units which are loaded onto boats are invisible, you can no longer see the land army that an AI has amassed.

So, we actually can only guess as to whether or not Ragnar has land-based Military Units on his boats, but as of the time of getting his hands full, he should have started loading-up such units.

3-4 galleys seems too big for an AI assault force at this stage of the game. The price of the lost trieme is the delay to the forge in stone. Our naval strength on the current plan is exactly what it would have been if we had not lot the trieme (once the replacement is rebuilt).

Then we had already given up on the idea of exploring with a Galley. I say so because when we discussed the idea of sending out a Galley and an exploring party, it was, as far as I can recall, decided that we'd need to have 2 Galleys in our empire before considering deserting our empire without a Galley to transport units from one island to another.

If we had thecapacity for exploration before, we have it now.

You are right about me being mistaken about the timing of when we decided to give up on building a second Galley and thus give up (for now) on exploration of AIs' lands. If "the latest plan prior to the death of the Trireme" no longer called for another Galley, then we actually gave up on the idea of exploring another island with a Galley + a Warrior (or better a Scout) at the time of giving up on building a 2nd Galley... which was probably at the time when Ragnar got his hands full and it was suggested that we'd need defense more than we would exploration.

The reason I want to scout that landmass is so we can scout out Russia, so we can attack her with the minimum acceptable number of units, and we don't have to send more just in case she is stronger than we thought/her capital is on a hill.

I understand your reason. Find a way to fit in a second Galley and we can do it. Delay a Barracks or whatever it takes. If we can't find a way to fit in a second Galley (I kind of doubt that we can do so easily within a short period of time), then we'll have to wait for the next turnset to do this exploration.

Ideally we would get it in trade. If we get a GS(likely we will have a reasonable chance of this as we would be able to research machinery first, otherwise we would have to self tech either compass/aesthetics/calendar/construction. Given the AI's normal tech preferences compass-optics would probably be best, unless a second AI discovers it before then.

The formula for a tech that has a unit associated with it (Compass) is still a bit beyond my understanding, but it looks like it is possible that we would need 2 more AIs to learn the tech--but maybe only one more, before we could get it in trade. Since it is also needed for Optics, it is probably the best choice out of the techs that you listed for us to start self-teching when the need arises.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

So, yes, we'd need to know turns known as a first step.

Done:
Turn 58, 2550 BC Vicky
Turn 73, 2175 BC Cathy
Turn 79, 2025 BC Willem
Turn 98, 1550 BC Isabella
Turn 107, 1325 BC Ragnar
Turn 143, 455 BC Joao II

We actually met Vicky and Cathy "in between turns," but I don't know which turn that would count, so I listed the first turn that we get to play after knowing said AI. Even if I am wrong, at least then we'd be wrong in a "safe" direction by 1 turn.

Silu did this in SG11 and also some of our other SG's (no happy or Taxman). I could try looking up later tonight, It's related to turns known, power ratio, previous begs, attitude and (maybe) LT status.

Any luck on this front? Even if you can't find the exact explanation but can find a reference to which part of the code to look at, then I could always try and review the code myself and see what I can come up with. For me, it's still a struggle to figure out WHERE in the code to start looking for a particular function.

 

[babybluepants]

Nope, no luck. In SG11 he only posted the results (it was on game turn 157 - forgot to note the post). I did a quick search of Taxman, but couldn't find it.

 

[babybluepants]

Strike that. Just looked again and found it in two minutes. courtesy of bestsss Go for it, Dhoom, I can't read code at all.

 

[mdy]

If "the latest plan prior to the death of the Trireme" no longer called for another Galley, then we actually gave up on the idea of exploring another island with a Galley + a Warrior (or better a Scout) at the time of giving up on building a 2nd Galley... which was probably at the time when Ragnar got his hands full and it was suggested that we'd need defense more than we would exploration.

I understand your reason. Find a way to fit in a second Galley and we can do it. Delay a Barracks or whatever it takes. If we can't find a way to fit in a second Galley (I kind of doubt that we can do so easily within a short period of time), then we'll have to wait for the next turnset to do this exploration.

Evidently there is some disagreement about this point. If we want Catherine to be our first target we are going to have to scout her lands before gong to war so we know how many units we will need, and where we need to send them. We will want to start this war ASAP after the end of our golden age, so there will not be time to start the scouting after the current turnset. The cost of not standing is therefore going to war with someone else first and missing out on the GL for a large number of turns, or taking a big risk of either sending too many or too few units to fight Cathy.

Our galley would only be away from the position where it could help with the Ragnar defence for 4T, which I think is acceptable. If your that worried about Ragnar I could send our first trieme down to scout his capital so we will have much greater warning of a potential attack and about the scouting mission if it looks like he is about to attack us in the next couple of turns.

If you renegotiate the Resource trades with Cathy, they will be uncancellable for 10 turns. During that time period, another AI will fail any code check where a random number is thrown to ask you to "Stop Trading with their Worst Enemy if you have any currently-cancellable Resource Trades."

Do we currently have the maximum "you have traded with our worst enemy" modifiers, or do we risk getting more if we renegotiate the trade? If no we may as well do this otherwise renegotiating them will just make things worse.


I'll try to see where we can fit in a WB for the crabs, but as gems won't become available in trade for a while I don't think it should be a priority.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Strike that. Just looked again and found it in two minutes. courtesy of bestsss Go for it, Dhoom, I can't read code at all.

Okay, thanks for that. I didn't really get very far, but here's what I've got so far:

".getPower(false)" seems to refer to the
CvTeam::getPower function in CtTeam.cpp

This fuction grabs a player's Power but not the Power of their vassals. If it had said "true" instead of "false," then Vassals' Power would have been included, too. Not like we really care, since Vassals are disabled in this game, but it's good to know.

Basically, what we see is that if an AI is Cautious or lower in Attitude towards us, then our Power needs to be more than 75% of their Power, otherwise they will outright refuse us.

Put another way, the AI has to be EITHER Pleased or Friendly with us OR our Power needs to be greater than 75% of their Power--such as us having 80% of their, Power, equal Power to them, or even more Power than them, otherwise our Demand will be outright refused.

Similarly, if we have asked the AI and they "remember" that we asked (they have a percentage chance of "forgetting" one occurrence of us asking), then they will now remember us having asked one more time and will automatically refuse us. In practice, this means that you should probably wait somewhere between 30 and 50 times between asking for gifts. If you ask within that time period and you are refused, and you met the above criteria (having the AI Pleased, Friendly, or you having more than 75% of their Power), then you might as well as assume that they have not forgotten the first occurrence and will now have to "forget" TWO occurrences... so, in that case, you'd probably want to wait another, say, 70 to 90 turns before asking again.



The main body of the code that we're looking at comes from the vPlayerAI::AI_considerOffer function in CvPlayerAI.cpp.

The sucky part is that even if we pass either the Pleased or the Power check, our relative Power to the AI's Power gets used in calculating the amount of the Demand that we are able to ask for.

What's worse is that it's not a straight-up relative value, but our Power + 100 versus their Power + 100. The problem there is that I need to know an absolute value for the Power levels--I can't just say that "our Power looks to be about half of theirs."

I don't really know how to get a "Power value" number. I suppose that a good place to start might be the team graphs on the submissions page--that number MIGHT be the number that gets used for our Power.

Unfortunately, the Stats graphs give an exact value for the Score but not (not that I can find, anyway) an exact value for the Power. However, a close approximation puts our Power level at a value of "78."

So, it looks like we go something like:
((50 + number of turns that we have known an AI) * 2)
and then we take that value and multiply it by our Power + 100 ~= 78 + 100 ~= 178
and then divide that value by the AI's Power + 100


Of course, whatever value that we have successfully received in the past is then subtracted from that amount.


Thus, the more Power that we have, the greedier that we can be.


What's interesting is that I have heard people say that it is either "2 times the amount or 3 times the amount if one is a land target." However, it looks like it is actually 6 times the amount if one is a land target. We don't have any land targets in this game, so I'm not going to look into the definition of a land target... but basically, you'd probably need to be sharing some borders with an AI, and your Cities may or may not actually need to be on the same landmass (but it is likely that they need to be on the same landmass as the AIs' cities)... then there is whether or not an AI's CAPITAL versus other Cities are used in this determination--not something that I'll look into now.



So, what is it now, roughly Turn 150?
That gives us:
Vicky = 150 - 58 = 92 turns of knowing her
Cathy = 77 turns
Willem = 71 turns
Isabella = 52 turns
Ragnar = 43 turns
Joao II = 7 turns


Let's take a conservative approach and say that each AI has double our Power when we make the Demand out of them.

In that case, we'd need to multiply by 178 and divide by (2 * 78) + 100 = 156 + 100 = 256

In other words, we'd need to multiply by 0.6953125


So, taking our above numbers, adding 50, and multiplying by 2, we'd have:
V = 284
C = 254
W = 242
I = 204
R = 186
J = 114

Then, multiplying by 0.6953125 and flooring, we'd get:
V = 197
C = 176
W = 168
I = 141
R = 129
J = 79


But, to be honest, I have no faith in those numbers at all. I ran a test game and I was seeing numbers more like:
Vicky = 95
Cathy = 81
Willem = 74

In the same test game, I gave ourselves a ton of extra Swordsmen but doing so didn't seem to alter the Demandable value, even though our Power shot up on the Power graph on the following turn.


Thus, at this point, I don't really know what to think.

Probably what I will say, though, as a rough guideline, is that we'll probably be safe in Demanding 60 Gold from any of Vicky, Cathy, or Willem IF and ONLY IF that AI is Pleased or Friendly towards us. Anything more than that and we'll need to work on better figuring out how the formula works or doing some more thorough testing in a test game. I don't have accurate numbers for the other AIs as they weren't giving me high enough Demandable values in the test game, and like I said, I don't trust my above-calculated values, as there are probably some things that I'm just not fully understanding in the code yet.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Our galley would only be away from the position where it could help with the Ragnar defence for 4T, which I think is acceptable. If your that worried about Ragnar I could send our first trieme down to scout his capital so we will have much greater warning of a potential attack and about the scouting mission if it looks like he is about to attack us in the next couple of turns.

Well, if the plan is to bring the Galley immediately back and it's only going to take 4 turns (plus the risk of completely losing our Galley to a Barb Galley), I suppose that it's just something that we'll have to live with.


If you think that you can safely scout Ragnar without accidentally "missing seeing his Galleys," then sure, go ahead and scout him with the Trireme. However, if there is even a small chance that while you're on your way to find him with the Trireme that he might be able to sneak past you, then I would say do NOT send the Trireme close to him... instead, send it to a position just outside of our Cultural Borders so that you might see one or two squares past our Cultural Borders. It's not much, but it might give us an extra turn of advance warning. Better to have a possible +1 turn of warning and still have the Trireme in range than to risk having our Trireme accidentally sail past Ragnar's ships and thus no longer be in position to attack his ships should the need to do so actually occur.

Do we currently have the maximum "you have traded with our worst enemy" modifiers, or do we risk getting more if we renegotiate the trade?

You're talking about something different here, perhaps even two different things.

Let's see if I can break it down.
-> "You have traded with our Worst Enemy" occurs when an AI, such as Joao, has Cathy as his Worst Enemy and we make a trade with Cathy. It used to be (pre-BtS) that it was only "excess value," but it seems that in BtS, even if you give a "fair value" trade that these kinds of trades can be counted against you. Generally, we're talking about Tech Trades here, and possibly Gold being exchanged too, not really Resource Trades (although if you gift a Resource instead of trading Resources--note that we are only trading Resources with Cathy and not gifting them--then over time, it might be possible to accumulate this penalty, but I'm not sure and it doesn't even matter in this case).

-> Renegotiating the trade will have no immediate impact on Diplo relations with any AI at all.

-> If an AI has a Worst Enemy, such as how Joao thinks of Cathy as his Worst Enemy, then each turn a random number will be calculated and if that number is "successful," then a check is made to see if we are trading a Resource with Cathy. If we are, and the Resource is not a trade that has been made within the last 10 turns, then Joao will ask us to stop trading with Cathy. If we agree, Cathy may not talk to us for the rest of the game, or at least not for a very long time, so we're pretty much going to refuse such a request. However, refusing that request gives us a DIFFERENT penalty: "You have refused to stop trading with our Worst Enemy." It's different from the above "You have traded with our Worst Enemy" in that the two Diplo modifiers are completely separate from each other, just as much as "You declared war on us" and "You declared war on our friend" are separate from each other.

-> If we have Open Borders with Cathy and Joao treats Cathy as his Worst Enemy, and we have had that Open Borders agreement for longer than 10 turns, Joao can also get a "successful" random number that will make him ask us to stop trading with Cathy. There's not much that we can do here if we want to keep Borders Open with Cathy, since Closing them won't allow us to immediately re-open them like how cancelling a Resource trade would allow us to immediately renegotiate it.


What I DO NOT KNOW is whether or not two different random numbers are calculated or if only 1 random number is calculated. If it's two, then continuing to cancel and renegotiate the Resource trades with Cathy every 10 turns will help. If it's only 1 random number, then cancelling and renegotating immediately will help, but will not help if we do it again after 10 turns.

So, doing it immediately WILL help, but what I can't promise is that doing it 10 turns from now and every 10 turns thereafter will help or not.

I'll try to see where we can fit in a WB for the crabs, but as gems won't become available in trade for a while I don't think it should be a priority.

Thank you. Perhaps it will take a while for the Gem Resources to be connected, but maybe not... maybe Willem will already have 1 source and then will end up settling on top of one of the other two, giving him immediate access to 2 sources. We can't know, so the sooner that we're prepared, the better.

In the meantime, all that we can really do is trade our Stone Resource, which is not a great long-term solution, due to the propensity for an AI with Stone to build more City Walls.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

So, a couple of more thoughts:

If we have 2 extra Warriors that aren't needed for Military Police, can we drop one off near the tip of Ragnar's island while "on the way" to dropping the second one off at Cathy's/Willem's area? If we have to wait a couple of turns before sending out the exploration party, it might just be worth this wait in order to get a proper scouting unit (a land-based one instead of a sea-based one) over near Ragnar.


Also, I'd appreciate it if we paused play if any of the following happened:
- We see a Tech that we want come available for trade
- We see a Resource that we might want come available for trade
- We spot a Barb Galley anywhere

These are the kinds of uncontrollable actions that are probably worth a bit of thought and group input on.

 

[babybluepants]

@Dhoom,
The power value is the soldiers number in F9 > Demographics.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

@Dhoom,
The power value is the soldiers number in F9 > Demographics.

Okay, that fact would likely give numbers that are a lot closer to what I was seeing in a test game. Still, I wonder if there is some sort of a "time delay" or something, since when I World Built in a ton of Swordsmen, the maximum Demandable values either stayed the same or became 1 Gold LESS on the following turn.

I guess then that we'd need a combination of the F9 DEMOGRAPHICS screen and the F9 GRAPH screen... and even then, with low relative Espionage values, we wouldn't have sufficient info for every AI... but could at least get an approximation by trying to figure out the values for one or two of the AIs and then making relative guesses for the rest of them.

 

[mdy]

If we have 2 extra Warriors that aren't needed for Military Police, can we drop one off near the tip of Ragnar's island while "on the way" to dropping the second one off at Cathy's/Willem's area? If we have to wait a couple of turns before sending out the exploration party, it might just be worth this wait in order to get a proper scouting unit (a land-based one instead of a sea-based one) over near Ragnar.

Good idea. I can load the warrior currently in pigs onto the galley immediately (this will not give us unhappy citizens in pigs). The warrior being built in pigs then replaces the military garrison there, and we drop the pigs warrior off on the island NE of Ragnar. This would allow us to keep the trieme closer to our core.

So, doing it immediately WILL help, but what I can't promise is that doing it 10 turns from now and every 10 turns thereafter will help or not.

I'll renegotiate those deals then.

Probably what I will say, though, as a rough guideline, is that we'll probably be safe in Demanding 60 Gold from any of Vicky, Cathy, or Willem IF and ONLY IF that AI is Pleased or Friendly towards us. Anything more than that and we'll need to work on better figuring out how the formula works or doing some more thorough testing in a test game. I don't have accurate numbers for the other AIs as they weren't giving me high enough Demandable values in the test game, and like I said, I don't trust my above-calculated values, as there are probably some things that I'm just not fully understanding in the code yet.

In that case I don't think it is worth making any demands at the moment. I think I remember that hooking up iron gives a significant boost to your power, so if the amount we can get depends on this we should wait till then(and when the AI's have a more reasonable amount of gold to trade). Our last warrior is scheduled to be built on T169, we could hook the iron up then.

Current plan:


By city:

Pigs:
T150 pigs works sefood+coast.
T151 grow to size 7. Work 2 seafood, mine and 4 scientists.
T152 work 2 seafood and hire 5 scientists
T154 warrior built. Start Barracks. Use warrior for pigs garrison.
T172 Generates GP5. 100%GS for astro


Marble:
T154 Build warrior for exploration/barb warning. Start Barracks
T167 Generates GP4 for golden age.
T167 Start golden age.


Gold:
T153 Build Trieme. Starts Barracks. Hire 2 scientist instead of working gold and seafood
T156 Generates GP2 100% GS for astro. Work 3 seafood+6 specialists
T174 work 2 seafood+7 specialists
T176 Generates GP6 at 100% for engineering


Capital:
T150 Start WB, hire 1 engineer
T159 Build WB. Start barracks.
T161 Generates GP3. This will be used for machinery if it is a GE or optics if it is a GS.
T171 Finish barracks. Start axe (will be converted to mace)

Stone:
T152 grow to size 4, work desert hill
T155 Finish trieme. Start trieme.
T161 Finish trieme, Start forge.
T164 grow to size 5, work workshop
T173 Build forge. Start Barracks
T176 Finish barracks. Start galleon

Iron:
T151 grow to size 2, work unnetted clams+iron
T155 Net clams with pre existing WB
T159 Granary built. Start lighthouse.
T166 Grow to size 3. Work iron and 2 netted clams. Build lighthouse. Start warrior.
T169 Grows to size 4, works 2 clams+2 mines. Finish warrior
T175 Build barracks. Start galleon

Barb/Ragnar Defense:

In the long one I propose keeping 1 trieme 3W of the horses south of marble, 1 3E of the clam south of gold, and one to protect the iron nets.


The galley will pick up the warrior in pigs and drop it of on the island NE of Ragnar, it then picks up the warrior being built in marble and send it to explore William/Catherines landmass. Promote galley to combat 1

Espionage:

Switch to putting 50% of our espionage on William and Victoria.

Research:

Civil Service(stop 1T before completion)-optics(compass)/machinery. What we tech next depends on what we think we can get from the AI's in trade, and what GP we get in Paris. To do this I will put our research to 0% for 3 turns to delay CS. Turning this gold back into beakers should not be a problem given the highly limited amount of gold we will be able to trade with the AI for.


This leaves us in a position to finish our research, GP generation, and revolt on T176.

Diplomacy:

Don't open borders with Jao, and don't trade for monarchy. Trade alphabet to Victoria for 60 gold+archery.
Trade hunting to Izzy for 50 gold.

Cancel clam gift to Ragnar, and then try to trade it to him for 1GPT. Try demanding 1 gold from him if it looks like he is going to attack us before he DOW's.

Renegotiate the following deals:
2. Cancel Marble <-> Cathy's Cow deal
3. Cancel Pig <-> Cathy's Sheep deal
4. Trade Marble <-> Cathy's Cow
5. Trade Pig <-> Cathy's Sheep

Trade for aesthetics/compass/calendar/construction as soon as they become available for trade with COL/currency (pause first though).




By Date:

T150 load pigs warrior onto galley for dropping off on island south of marble. Promote galley to combat 1
T150 pigs works sefood+coasts.
T150 Start WB, hire 1 engineer.
T150 Set research to 0%
T151 Pigs grows to size 7. Work 2 seafood, mine and 4 scientists.
T151 Stone grows to size 2, work unnetted clams+iron
T152 Pigs works 2 seafood and hire 5 scientists
T152 Stone grows to size 4, work desert hill
T153 Gold builds Trieme. Starts Barracks. Hire 2 scientist instead of working gold and seafood
T154 Pigs builds warrior. Start Barracks. Use warrior for pigs garrison.
T154 Marble builds warrior for exploration.
T154 Stone builds trieme. Start trieme.
T154 Set research to 100%.
T155 Net stone clams with pre existing WB
T156 Gold generates GP2 100% GS for astro. Work 3 seafood+6 specialists
T159 Capital builds WB for iron city. Starts barracks.
T159 Stone builds granary built. Start lighthouse.
T161 Capital generates GP3. This will be used for machinery if it is a GE or optics if it is a GS.
T161 Stone builds second trieme, starts forge.
T164 Stone grows to size 5, work workshop.
T166 Stone grows to size 3. Work iron and 2 netted clams. Build lighthouse. Start warrior.
T167 Marble generates GP4 for golden age.
T167 Start golden age.
T169 Stone grows to size 4, works 2 clams+2 mines. Finish warrior. Start barracks.
T171 Capital finishes barracks, start axe (will be converted to a mace)
T172 Pigs generates GP5. 100%GS for astro
T173 Stone builds forge. Start Barracks
T173 Stone builds barracks. Start galleon
T174 Gold works 2 seafood+7 specialists
T175 Stone builds barracks. Start galleon.
T176 Gold generates GP6 at 100%GS for engineering

Pause points: Whenever something significantly outside this plan occurs, or at T167 at the very latest if nothing like that has happened by that point.



I can play in around 3-4 hours time if at least one other player agrees by that point, otherwise tomorrow morning.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Well, using the Soldiers values for "Power" brings us closer to a calculation, but the numbers are still off. Perhaps the AI_getPeacetimeGrantValue function has a non-zero value even if we have never made a Demand, which would affect the results. I haven't found in the code where this value is set, though, other than where it is initialized to a value of zero.

Then again, maybe the AI_getHasMetCounter function doesn't count turn numbers the same way that you and I do... maybe there is a scaling factor for Epic or maybe something else...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

In that case I don't think it is worth making any demands at the moment.

Not at the moment, no. Probably only Willem would agree, due to being Pleased, and he only has 20 Gold to offer, anyway.

Even if a non-Pleased AI would agree, I'd prefer not to demand from a non-Pleased AI where possible, since making such a Demand gives us a permanent -1 negative Diplo modifier, which is hard to overcome.

Anyway, since our Soliders count on the F9 DEMOGRAPHICS screen definitely plays a factor (I still haven't worked out the exact formula but I have at least ascertained this fact), then it'll be better to Demand after our Power has gone up... but we could also consider making a Demand if a Pleased AI has a large amount of Gold (say, Failure Gold from missing a Wonder).

I think I remember that hooking up iron gives a significant boost to your power

This rumour is false. I just confirmed that connecting Iron (regardless of how many times that I end the turn) has zero effect on our Soldiers count and on the Power graph.

Note that I suspect that the Solders count and the Power graph show the same values as each other, but if anyone can confirm or deny this fact, it would be appreciated.

Our last warrior is scheduled to be built on T169, we could hook the iron up then.

I haven't really thought it through, but do we want to consider building a few additional Warriors after that point as future Military Police? Or would the Maintenance Costs be worse than later whipping Archers in captured Cities?


Also, have you put any thought into sending one of our Workers to a different island? There's not much to do, but there are:
1. A couple of spots that we could put a Workshop (including on top of that Cottage in Paris--although that Cottage has been good in that it has forced us to pay close attention to micro)

2. A couple of Forests that could be chopped here or there. Now that we have Math, a Chop won't get any more valuable as time passes, while chopping now could mean for a faster Work Boat or Trireme or whatever we're planning on building in the relevant City

We'll want to leave 1 Worker on the Iron Island, though, in order to connect-up Iron at the appropriate time (although I'm still not certain what "the appropriate time" will be).

T161 Generates GP3. This will be used for machinery if it is a GE or optics if it is a GS.

Just to confirm, this turn is our "trigger point" for being able to start research on either Machinery or Optics, right?

Basically, if it is a Great Engineer, then as soon as we know Compass, we would be able to begin research on Optics at any time, right?

Similarly, if it is a Great Scientist, then we'd be able to begin research on Machinery at any time, right?

Stone:
T152 grow to size 4, work desert hill

The above point should be for T151, not T152. I'm not sure which list (the "by city" or "by Date" list) you are going to go by... maybe both... maybe one... so that change may not affect you. Preferably, you'll be double-checking every City on every turn anyway, so that you'll catch little things like that one (I am not verifying the accuracy for many turns into the future, just for a turn or two).


Also, could you please incorporate this suggestion?

Things to do on the next turn:
3. Switch Iron City to working an Unnetted Clam, so that it will grow 1 turn faster

Right now, the PPP says:

Iron:
T151 grow to size 2, work unnetted clams+iron

But that info doesn't match up with the game, as the game has us working the Iron on Turn150 and growing on Turn 153.

Perhaps the above "T151" is a left-over artifact from when we still had a Netted Clam.

What I think we should have for Iron City is:
Iron:
(T150 no change to Iron City)
T151 Switch Iron -> Unnetted Clam
T152 grow to size 2, work unnetted clams+iron
after that point, I'm not sure on the timing

By Date:
...
T151 Stone grows to size 2, work unnetted clams+iron
...
T152 Stone grows to size 4, work desert hill

Again, I'm not sure which list you are using, but as per my previous two comments, these items need to be updated.

Marble:
...
T154 Build warrior for exploration/barb warning. Start Barracks

If that's our exploration Warrior, then we probably really do have time to pick up and drop off the Worker that is currently on the Plains Hills square. We will have to wait until Turn 151 to pick up that Worker (but you will have to stop it from Roading immediately on Turn 150) and then send that Worker somewhere... maybe to Paris' island or Marble's island in order to build a Workshop?

Iron:
...
T166 Grow to size 3. Work iron and 2 netted clams. Build lighthouse. Start warrior.

I'm guessing that the turn numbers for Iron City might be a bit off, due to growing slower from not having the Netted Clam, but do you mind building a Work Boat prior to that Warrior? If you do not want to do so, then can we build 2 Work Boats in Paris instead of just 1?

Barb/Ragnar Defense:
In the long one I propose keeping 1 trieme 3W of the horses south of marble

Maybe we should plant the Trireme 1 north of there? That way, if Ragnar goes around the north edge of the island that it is placed to the south of, we'll be in a slightly closer position to be able to intercept him.

Note that he'd still be able to "sail past us" on the south side of this island, so we wouldn't be "blocking him" and thus "forcing him" to sail to the north.

The only "blocking position" that I can see is 3S of the Desert Hills Iron square that is at the north-east tip of Ragnar's mainland. However, in order for that location to actually "work" as a "blocking position," we would have to proactively declare war on Ragnar. Thus, if he declares war on us, we'll probably have to do the attacking, since there doesn't appear to be a good "blocking position" closer to our empire.

That said, I think that it would be best if we only attacked his boats when multiple boats of ours could attack his boats on the same turn, to avoid giving him promotions if we lose battles.

Research:
Civil Service(stop 1T before completion)

I think that I've given enough warnings on this point for stopping with 2T to completion. On your head it will be if an accidental misclick (or an Enter keypress accidentally slips and also hits the Shift key and thus) forces the turn to advance immediately before switching to a different tech.

Try demanding 1 gold from him if it looks like he is going to attack us before he DOW's.

Demanding and failing would not only give us a -1 negative Diplo hit but would mess up the possibility of Demanding again for a long time. So, I'd ask that you pause play before making such a Demand so that we can at least perform a proper calculation to know whether the attempt will actually work or not before trying.

Besides, Demanding "1 Gold" is quite inferior to demanding a higher amount if I can figure out how to do the calculation properly... if we decide to take the -1 negative Diplo modifier hit, we might as well try and calculate a near-optimum amount of Gold to Demand, since his chance of giving it to us would be equal (as long as I can figure out how the calculation works by that time).