SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[babybluepants]

Those trades with Cathy sound good.
1t delay is fine, but 98% seems pretty solid to me. I'd stick with Pigs.

 

[shyuhe]

The only issue is that if we get a GArtist, we will not be able to complete astronomy + CS and revolt before the golden age is over.

 

[babybluepants]

Ok, fair enough. I just don't think I've ever lost those odds - then again, we have a bad history with that.

Doesn't look to me like we can starve for 4t either. Let's delay then.

Should we keep eyes on Ragnar somehow? Where are his galleys now? I guess if he is going after Willem, we'll know before the treaty expires...

I'd attack the Willem/Cathy continent first, but we should take Willem before Cathy. He's closer, all cities are non-hill and land looks quite decent - we may be able to still use it.

 

[shyuhe]

If we're going to give code of laws to Cathy, we'll want to hit her before she gets maces. I don't think it'll be an issue timing wise but something to keep in mind. Willem is probably a better target first as I'm a little worried that he may actually be going towards engineering (castles, ugh).

 

[mdy]

Did we bother to stop research on Machinery with 1 turn remaining in the tech?

Yes, we did.

What's your timezone? Or, perhaps a better question would be "relative to a certain time that a message was posted (i.e. your last message or your next message), when are you planning on playing?"

It's currently 17:50 where I live if that helps, and I will not be able to get round till playing 4 hours or so.

I have yet to look at the saved game, but presumably, Cathy still has her roughly 140 Gold

She now has 130 gold.

Aesthetics will not be useful in the time frame we're looking at -- it's literature that's actually worth something. Construction would be nice to get in trade but it's highly unlikely given the AI tech pace.

The point of asethetics has always been to allow us to bulb engineering for trebuchets.

The only issue is that if we get a GArtist, we will not be able to complete astronomy + CS and revolt before the golden age is over.

The cost of a GA is that we would not be able to bulb engineering, not this.

1t delay is fine, but 98% seems pretty solid to me. I'd stick with Pigs.

Fortunately it is closer to 99% certain, it just looks like 98% due to rounding issues, I will however starve pigs for 3T to maximise our chances of a GS, and we could do with the extra 18 beakers anyway.

 

[shyuhe]

Ah, I forgot about engineering. My bad

 

[mdy]

Also, since we only need one more GS, isn't it better to pop him from gold to make sure it's 100% a GS instead of from pigs-fish?

I actually think we should pop the next GS in gold, and the second in pigs. We still get both our GS at the same time, but not only is our chances of getting a GA reduced, but the cost of us not getting a GS is "only" not getting trebs instead on not getting trebs and ahving an additional turn of anrachy.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Assuming no one else picks up calendar next turn, let's trade code of laws for monarchy + 70 gold with Cathy.

As long as we continue to force Ragnar to self-tech Mysticism if he wants it, then sure, I have no issues with us taking Monarchy, now that everyone else but Ragnar knows it.

At least that way, we won't need Espionage on a target to see immediately when they have learned Feudalism.

Two options exist when an AI learns Feudalism:
1) Do our best to eliminate them as soon as possible, before other AIs piggyback off of that first AI's research or get it in trade

2) Ignore that AI for later and try to first take-down as many Archer-using Civs as possible

Aesthetics will not be useful in the time frame we're looking at -- it's literature that's actually worth something. Construction would be nice to get in trade but it's highly unlikely given the AI tech pace.

I'm not sure what you're driving at here, but sure, any tech that we can get in trade is always nice.

Literature does not quite as high of a Monopoly value as does Aesthetics on paper, but the difference may not translate into less AIs needing to know it.

So, if Willem were to learn Literature, how many AIs would also need to know it before he'd be willing to trade it?
((X * 100 / 5) < ((15 * 140 / 100))
=> (X * 20) < (21)
=> X < 21 / 20
=> X < 1.05

So, X must be 2 or greater or else we will be denied the trade.

Thus, we will need at least 3 Civs to know Literature before even loose-fisted Willem will offer it out in trade.

It's not like we can build The Heroic Epic yet, anyway--we'll have to do some fighting first, in order to get an 8 Experience Point unit (Charismatic Trait for unlocking The Heroic Epic).


Literature and Aesthetics, therefore, require at least 3 AIs to know said techs before we can get them in trade.

Assuming that we resolve ourselves to self-teching Construction, then we'll buy ourselves some time to be able to get Aesthetics in trade, which, combined with Construction, would unlock the Engineering Lightbulb.

I'm wondering, though... if we get a Great Scientist, won't it want to Lightbulb Paper instead of Engineering? Is this last Great Person even going to be of value to us?

T+5 we finish CS and revolt

It may come down to a choice between earlier Bureaucracy (which, we admit, in a non-Academy-capital with not much Commerce, and only 8 to 10 base Hammers, isn't really much of a bonus, versus not finishing Civil Service until after we have Lightbulbed Engineering.

Thus, weak, earlier Bureaucracy versus getting Trebuchets within our lifetime.

I think that Trebuchets win that match-up, meaning that we probably can't complete Civil Servce before the Golden Age is over.

Waiting all of this time to attack and still just using Catapults seems rather lame.

As for military targets, we will want to hit Cathy first since code of laws opens up civil service and her building maces = bad.

I think that it's her Wonder/Wonders--The Great Lighthouse and possibly The Temple of Artemis--that we're really after. Civil Service is going to be a long way off for her.

Willem, however, will soon get Crossbowmen (yuck). It may even be worth capturing any of his Iron-owning Cities as our first target, to prevent him from building many Crossbowmen.


EDIT: I just cross-posted with all messages written since the message from shyuhe that I was quoting.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Willem is probably a better target first as I'm a little worried that he may actually be going towards engineering (castles, ugh).

Well, Willem is likely to go for at least one of: Engineeering, Optics, Feudalism, or even just Crossbowmen from Machinery... plus his willingness to make a lot of tech trades might give him the Code of Laws tech that you are worried about... and the fact that he has a good tech pace means that he's likely to achieve these tech goals within a reasonable timeframe.

So, yes, Willem is likely to be one of our biggest threats if we don't take him down early or at least capture all of his sources of Metals early.

 

[shyuhe]

With aesthetics but no civil service, you will bulb engineering before paper. I'm not sure if our time line lets us pop the necessary GPP, finish aesthetics, and research contruction, all before the golden age ends though, so bureau may not be a free revolt.

As for the feudalism issue, it depends on which AI learns it. I'm inclined to go after the ones who don't have it though, unless it messes up our troop flow.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Great Scientist Tech Lightbulbing Preferences:
Writing <- we have it
Mathematics <- we have it
Scientific Method <- blocked by not knowing Printing Press
Physics <- blocked by not knowing Scientific Method
Education <- blocked by not knowing Paper
Printing Press <- blocked by not knowing Paper
Fiber Optics <- blocked by not knowing Computers or Laser
Computers <- blocked by not knowing Plastics and Radio
Laser (BTS) <- blocked by not knowing Satellites
The Wheel <- we know it
Alphabet (BTS) <- we know it
Philosophy <- we know it
Chemistry <- blocked by not knowing Gunpowder
Fission <- blocked by not knowing Electricity
Fusion <- blocked by not knowing Fusion and Fibre Optics
Optics <- we will know it shortly
Paper <- PROBLEM!!! ALERT!!! AHHHHHH!!! Learning Civil Service will unlock this Lightbulb as well as a ton of other successive Lightbulbs that will completely prevent a Great Scientist from Lightbulbing Engineering within this lifetime
Astronomy <- we plan to Lightbulb it shortly
Biology <- blocked by not knowing Chemistry and Scientific Method
Electricity <- blocked by not knowing Physics
Flight <- blocked by not knowing Physics and Combustion
Genetics <- blocked by not knowing Superconductors
Compass <- we either already know it or will know it shortly
Satellites <- blocked by not knowing Rocketry and Radio
Aesthetics (BTS) <- WE NEED IT, but we already know that fact
Sailing <- we know it
Alphabet (Vanilla & Warlords) <- not applicable (it was listed above)
Calendar <- we will get it in trade soon
Medicine <- blocked by Biology
Ecology <- blocked by Biology and Plastics or Fission
Advanced Flight (BTS) <- blocked by Flight and Satellites
Iron Working <- we know it already
Metal Casting <- we know it already
Engineering

 

[Dhoomstriker]

What's the plan for the Workers and pre-whipping-of-units, since both points are inter-related?

For example, there are no Workers on Iron Island, which to mean means that we'll be investing 1-turn-worth of Hammers into Galleons into every City that will become Unhappy once out of Representation.

Those Cities look like they will be:
Gold City
Pig Mmm Fish City

The other Cities should have sufficient Happiness to not need to be whipped right away, although if Paris grows, it may need a whipping job, too, so Paris is probably tentatively on that list of Cities in which to start building a Galleon, particularly if we won't be connecting the Iron anytime soon.


Another thought: by needing to delay Civil Service, it may be useful to build Axemen and upgrade them later to Maces, in order to save on Hammers, but we won't be able to 2-pop-whip Axemen with either a Forge or Police State, let alone when both are in use.

I don't think that Swordsmen will be 2-pop-whippable under those conditions, either, but I haven't checked for certain.

Axeman = 52 Hammers
Swordsman = 60 Hammers
Maceman = 105 Hammers
Pikeman = 90 Hammers
Catapult = 75 Hammers
Trebuchet = 120 Hammers
War Elephant (if we go after Ragnar for his Ivory) = 90 Hammers
Galley = 75 Hammers
Galleon = 120 Hammers

Yet another thought: Warriors are pretty cheap to build. Maybe we should plan to upgrade Warriors into Macemen??? Certainly, it is not likely to be an idea that many or any other teams will be using.

Even another thought: since we are no longer likely to research Civil Service anytime soon, there is no rush to complete the Astronomy Lightbulb. So, therefore, we could actually aim to build Galleys and then upgrade them at a moment's whim. As long as we had a floating cash balance, then we could Lightbulb Astronomy "on command" on any turn, while paying to upgrade the Galleys to Galleons on that same turn.

Let's see if a Galley can still be a 2-pop-whip: Forge + Police State = 50% bonus to unit production... whipping = 45 Hammers... 45 * 1.5 = 67.5 = 67 Hammers... so, we just need to invest 75 - 67 = 8... just need to invest 7 or less Hammers in order for a Galley to be a 2-pop-whip in Paris (although we should probably double-check this math in-game).

 

[mdy]

Paper <- PROBLEM!!! ALERT!!! AHHHHHH!!! Learning Civil Service will unlock this Lightbulb as well as a ton of other successive Lightbulbs that will completely prevent a Great Scientist from Lightbulbing Engineering within this lifetime

This comment would have been really useful a week ago, as it is I think we will have to accept a turn of anarachy if we want bureaucracy.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I believe that we were hoping to get Construction and Aesthetics in trade, meaning that the timing of the last Great Person could have been played with to be able to get it before Civil Service.


Anyway, are you sure about getting our last Great Person in Pig City? We'll have to delay Great Person production in Pig City in order for Gold City to beat it. Note that they just have to "tie" each other and Gold City will get the Great Person first, but right now it looks like 5 turns for Gold City and 4 turns for Pig City, meaning that we'd have to get less Golden-Age-enhancing turns of hiring Specialists in Pig City if we wanted Pig City to generate the last Great Person.

Seeing as how we'd only "gain" 2 Food per Specialist not hired in Pig City but would have to "pay" 6 Food per Specialist hired again later in Pig City, it seems rather costly to generate the last Great Person in Pig City. I'm not even certain that we'd be able to do so before the Golden Age runs out... at least with Gold City, it has a Library, but Pig City, outside of Caste System, cannot hire any Specialists.

I'd like you to have a detailed plan in place if you plan to switch the 6th Great Person to Pig City, as we won't have any "backup means" (i.e. hiring Scientists from a Library) in Pig City if the last Great Person cannot be generated in Pig City on the second last turn of the Golden Age... the last turn of the Golden Age will no longer be in Caste System... and we'd have to fire Specialists in Pig City for some turns in order for Gold City to get the next Great Person.

 

[mdy]

If a city is going to lose a population point due to starvation next turn, is the pop point lost before or after the GPP are evaluated. If it's after I think we might be able to get our final GP one turn later.

In view of this I will now not play till tomorrow.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I think we will have to accept a turn of anarachy if we want bureaucracy.

We can always decide at that time... if we're going to be capturing and keeping a lot of Cities anyway, it may not be worth the higher Maintenance Cost.

Bureaucracy Hammers DO NOT stack with a Forge and Police State.

So, Bureaucracy is worth 4 to 5 Hammers per turn.

Bureaucracy, assuming that we're whipping away most of our Coast squares, would increase our Commerce from
8 = Palace
1 = City Centre
2 = Clam 1
2 = Clam 2
2 = Coast at Size 6
--
15 = total

to 15 * 1.5 = 22.5



So, Bureaucracy is worth 4 to 5 Hammers and 7 to 7.5 Commerce (only 7 if not enough other Cities produce 0.5 Commerce).


As of now, the cost of switching into Bureaucracy would be 2 Gold per turn, but eventually, that cost may skyrocket once we start keeping a ton more Cities, so it's not that big of a deal.


Civil Service is mostly going to be of use for its Macemen-unlocking ability.



Now, can we please see a PPP before you play? I really do not appreciate this no-PPP-playing. Add to that the fact that the only mainly existing PPP stuff--the Great Person Generation plan--is being discussed as "possibly" being changed, and I really have no idea what the plans are, so it is really hard to give proper feedback.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

If a city is going to lose a population point due to starvation next turn, is the pop point lost before or after the GPP are evaluated. If it's after I think we might be able to get our final GP one turn later.

In view of this I will now not play till tomorrow.

Here's how having negative Food works. Note that it is confusing to use the words "starvation" and "starving" because people tend to mean "starving = having negative Food" but the game says uses "starvation = lose a population point."


Let's say that your City has 10 Food in its Foodbox. You hire 1 more Specialist and you will have negative 6 Food as of the end of the turn. On the following turn, your City Size will be the same and your City will have 4 Food in its Foodbox and you will have received credit for having hired that extra Specialist.

If you do not change the citizen allocations, the following turn will see 0 Food in your Foodbox, your City Size being 1 size smaller, and you will have received credit for having hired that extra Specialist. However, you will have shrunk a population point.

Given that we will be shortly using most of our population points for whipping, each population point is worth:
45 * 1.25 (from Police State) = 56.25 Hammers.

So, for one Specialist's worth of GPP, we will lose 56 Hammers. That tradeoff is HORRIBLE and we should avoid it wherever possible.


Extending this example:
You will now have 1 less population point, meaning 1 less Specialist will exist. However, your City will still be at -6 Food. So, you actually can hire TWO less Specialists. If you only hire 1 less Specialist, then on the following turn, the City will shrink YET AGAIN.

So, shrinking the City's Size really is terrible and should be avoided.


Now, another example:
If you have 6 Food in your Foodbox and you hire a Specialist such that the City will have negative 6 Food, then on the folloiwng turn:
You will have 0 Food in your Foodbox and you will have received credit for having hired that Specialist. However, your City will NOT have shrunk a population point, as it will only shrink when your Food goes into the negative--it is allowed to go down to precisely 0 Food in the Foodbox without shrinking.

 

[shyuhe]

I think this plan works:

T+0: Set research to machinery (1545/1638)
T+1: Complete research of machinery with 1638-(1545+222*1.2)= 173 beaker overflow. Set research to compass (572/936). Trade code of laws for monarchy + 70 gold with Cathy.
T+2: Complete research of compass with 936-173-(572+222*1.2)=75 beaker overflow. Set research to aesthetics (75 overflow/702). Trade philosophy for calendar + remaining gold with Cathy. Bulb optics.
T+3: Continue aesthetics (75+ 222*1.2=341 beakers/702). Fire 1 scientist in pig-fish to make sure it doesn't generate a GP on T+4; hire 1 scientist in iron to off-set loss of bpt.
T+4: Continue aesthetics (341+222*1.2=607 beakers/702). Re-hire scientist in pig-fish, fire extra iron scientist(?).
T+5: GS born in gold -- city founded before pig-fish so it will generate its GP before pig-fish. Double bulb astronomy. Complete aesthetics (702-(607+222*1.2)=171 beaker overflow. Set research to construction.
T+6: Continue construction(171+222*1.2=437/819).
T+7: Continue construction (437+222*1.2=703, short 116 beakers!!!). Revolt to police state + slavery + paganism(?). Pig-fish only has two scientists but it will still reach 900 GPP on T+8.
T+8: Complete research of construction. Set research to civil service. Generate GP (hopefully GS) in pig-fish. Bulb engineering with GS. We're out of the GA at this point so we'll have to decide if we want to revolt to bureaucracy once we get civil service.
T+9: Complete civil service. Start slaving away.

I'd appreciate it if someone can check my math (and understanding of beaker overflow).

 

[Dhoomstriker]

A few thoughts:
Construction will probably never come in trade, particularly with at least one AI planning a war (Ragnar). So, we might as well go Construction -> Aesthetics instead of Aesthetics -> Construction, for the small chance of being able to get Aesthetics in trade

Even though a Civic switch inside of a Golden Age is Anarchy-free, we still need to wait at least 5 turns before performing another Civic switch (such as into Civil Service).

Will firing 1 Scientist in Pig City for 1 turn really be enough less GPP in order for Gold City and Pig City to "tie" each other in terms of the date that they will generate a Great Person? If yes, then Gold City will break the tie.

We still need to decide which build items to start on the second last turn of the Golden Age... preferably items that will be 2-pop-whipped (or greater). Galleys? Galleons? Those would be for Paris, Gold City, and Pig City.


Do we want to continue delaying the connecting-up of Iron so that we can build some Warriors (which would get upgraded into Macemen)? I don't see what else we'll be doing with our Commerce once we reach the above tech targets.

 

[shyuhe]

I did the GPP math but it might be worth having someone else check it. It was surprisingly close.

I have no preference on the build items. We can start by whipping galleons I think. We can send some of them out to build a galleon chain to speed up troop transport.

Once we're done with research, I would set research to 0% so that we can keep more cities while we conquer. Our first few conquered cities can contribute a few troops (or boats).