SGOTM 13 - One Short Straw

[mdy]

Do we want to continue delaying the connecting-up of Iron so that we can build some Warriors (which would get upgraded into Macemen)? I don't see what else we'll be doing with our Commerce once we reach the above tech targets.

We might want to start building up a gold reserve, allowing us to run at a deficit later, but I think this decision can be left till the next turnset.

We still need to decide which build items to start on the second last turn of the Golden Age... preferably items that will be 2-pop-whipped (or greater). Galleys? Galleons? Those would be for Paris, Gold City, and Pig City.

I was thinking of whipping galleons in cities which don't have a barracks yet (gold, marble, pigs, and maybe the capital). The rest can start on trebuchets/maces/warriors, but again we can leave this till later.

Bureaucracy, assuming that we're whipping away most of our Coast squares, would increase our Commerce from

The main advanatge of bureaucracy is that it would give us another 44 hammers for each 2 pop whip we did. This would allow the capital to build 7 maces for every 5 it would otherwise be able to build.

 

[mdy]

I've been trying to get our final GP 1T earlier, unfortunately we are 1 GP turn short, so it looks like we are just going to have to accept that we can't revolt to CS on T176.

The new MM for those interested:

Pigs:

T+0 fire 1 scientists.
T+1 rehire scientis.
T+4 747/750 GPP generated hire an extra scientist.
T+7 909/900 GPP Final GP born

Gold:
Stays exactly as it is, generates GS on T+5. As this city was founded before pigs it will generate the GS on this turn instead of pigs.


Note we could hire the final GS in pigs 1T later without delaying the final GP, however I am assuming we will need a few extra beakers to complete our research in time, and this will be one of the easiest ways of doing it.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I did the GPP math but it might be worth having someone else check it. It was surprisingly close.

I'm not really concerned about that 1-turn-worth of Artist Specialist.

If we're really trying to push hard on our remaining techs, including self-teching Construction, and are hoping to get Aesthetics in trade but not believing that we really can... then, does it make sense to also hire some Specialists starting NOW in Iron City and Stone City?

If we're less than 150 Flasks away from the techs that we need, will this extra bit of science push help us? Similarly, should we go back to a Scientist in the capital instead of a GH Mine? Maybe even instead of an Engineer if we still have an Engineer hired there?

If we're going to try to do all of that, then I'd suggest only altering the Great-Person-Generation plan if we honestly think that we can still get both Great People at the same time as originally planned.

I'm pretty sure that the original plan, with Pig City then Gold City for our Great People will allow us to generate both Great People by the second last turn of the Golden Age. If we can still reach this date by reversing the order, then we could reverse the order.

That said, since we are potentially going to try and squeeze every last bit of science out of our empire, then keeping the Scientists hired in Pig City will give us just a bit more Flasks. Therefore, if we're going to try hiring Scientists everywhere (I mean, we got peace with Ragnar, so we probably could afford to try to do so), with the hopes of being able to get Construction + Aesthetics by that second last turn of the Golden Age (it'll be so tight as to possibly not be possible--I don't really know), then I'd say stick with Pig City for our 5th Great Person, as doing so probably lets us get a tiny bit more Flasks out.

I have no preference on the build items. We can start by whipping galleons I think. We can send some of them out to build a galleon chain to speed up troop transport.

A Galleon chain is a good idea.

I don't really care on Galleons versus Galleys, either, with the caveat that: if we somehow manage to miraculously pull off all of our pre-Astronomy techs + Construction + Aesthetics by that second last turn of a Golden Age, then sure, we'll want Astronomy.

But, if we can't or don't reach this extremely-difficult-to-hit target, then maybe we don't need to Lightbulb Astronomy immediately and might as well just build Galleys for that first round of whipping.

One option is to just stop the turnset with 2 turns left in the Golden Age, so that we can discuss these things before the next player plays.

Who's on deck to play next, anyway?

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I've been trying to get our final GP 1T earlier, unfortunately we are 1 GP turn short, so it looks like we are just going to have to accept that we can't revolt to CS on T176.

When you say "1T earlier," I'm not really sure what you are comparing to.

Basically, I am wondering:
If we go for Pig City = 5th Great Person versus Pig City = 6th Great Person, will there be a difference in terms of the timing of when the 6th Great Person can be generated at the earliest?

If yes, and if we somehow manage to get Construction + Aesthetics (with massive Scientist hiring empire-wide MAYBE being able to do it) by the second last turn of the Golden Age, do we have a method of getting the 6th Great Person by this turn, too?


Really... it is kind of an "all or nothing" thing. Either we somehow squeeze out Science everywhere and somehow manage to get all of the techs that we need minus Civil Service plus both Great People on the 2nd last turn of the Golden Age... or we don't.

If there is no chance, then we might as well just keep working production squares in most Cities and playing "more relaxed" in terms of Science.

I mean, we won't be able to switch Civics a second time until 5 turns after the first switch, so there will be no rush to learn Civil Service if we can't get all of the other pieces to fall into place by that 2nd last turn of the Golden Age.

Pigs:

T+0 fire 1 scientists.
T+1 rehire scientis.
T+4 747/750 GPP generated hire an extra scientist.
T+7 909/900 GPP Final GP born

Okay, well it is neat that we are simply 1 Specialist away from having Pig City make our 5th or 6th Great Person, since two of you have now come to that same conclusion.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

As for the Workers... is the plan to send them both to the SE Horse Island, have them both chop the Forest there, and put a Warrior on that island?

Once we "pick up" the Workers, will one go back to stay on Iron Island, while the other will stay with the Galley to go and Chop additional Forests?

It's a bit of a tradeoff--if we get surprised by Joao or something, we may want that Iron connected at a moment's notice.

However, barring that possibility, we might actually want both Workers to go dual-Chopping Forests so that they get quickly Chopped into Warrior-build-items, which can be later upgraded into Macemen.


The safe approach is to probably put one Worker on Iron Island after Chopping the SE Horse Island's Forest.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Oh yeah, another thing that I was thinking but didn't get a chance to test out in a test game (but any of our older test game should be able to tell you the answer--although you may have to use the Edit City functionality of the World Builder in order to increase Gold City's Culture to the correct border expansion level): if we move Fur Island's Warrior 1NE (or maybe 1E, although moving there blocks possible Forest growth), we can probably better spawn-bust the Crab.

A Barb Galley might be more likely to appear to the west of Crab Island, but we should still be able to spot it and since we have a Trireme near there, this approach might be better than just leaving our Fur Island Warrior where it currently is located.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I take it that we decided not to follow Ragnar's Galleys, right? That's fine, and is probably a reasonably safe approach.

Just to be certain... Ragnar's Galleys headed west along the northern Coast of his island, right? That's what you meant by going towards Willem, right?

 

[mdy]

When you say "1T earlier," I'm not really sure what you are comparing to.

The original plan, where we generate our final GS on T176.

One advantage of generating the next GP in pigs, is that if we got a GA we would know about it in time to research CS and revolt to bureaucarcy inside the golden age. Also we would not have started resaerching aesthetics yet so we could put the beakers into theology instead, or we could bulb aesthetics and put the beakers into drama for access to the culture slider instead.

Of course the big disadvantage is that we would have a higher chance of getting a GA.

 

[mdy]

I take it that we decided not to follow Ragnar's Galleys, right? That's fine, and is probably a reasonably safe approach.

Just to be certain... Ragnar's Galleys headed west along the northern Coast of his island, right? That's what you meant by going towards Willem, right?

Yes, that's right. The trieme that was following hasn't moved this turn, so we can still follow them if you think that info would be worthwhile.

As for the Workers... is the plan to send them both to the SE Horse Island, have them both chop the Forest there, and put a Warrior on that island?

Once we "pick up" the Workers, will one go back to stay on Iron Island, while the other will stay with the Galley to go and Chop additional Forests?

I was thinking of sending them both to chop the forest, then return them to iron island so we can hook up the iron. Jao's galleys can easily be blocked once we have that warrior in position, so I wouldn't worry about him.

Oh yeah, another thing that I was thinking but didn't get a chance to test out in a test game (but any of our older test game should be able to tell you the answer--although you may have to use the Edit City functionality of the World Builder in order to increase Gold City's Culture to the correct border expansion level): if we move Fur Island's Warrior 1NE (or maybe 1E, although moving there blocks possible Forest growth), we can probably better spawn-bust the Crab.

A Barb Galley might be more likely to appear to the west of Crab Island, but we should still be able to spot it and since we have a Trireme near there, this approach might be better than just leaving our Fur Island Warrior where it currently is located.

I agree.

 

[mdy]

I think we can actually generate a GP on T+6 instead of T+7 by the following method:

Gold:

T+0 hire 6 scientists. We have 504/750 GPP
T+1 hire 7 scientists. We have 558/750 GPP
T+2 We have 621/750 GPP
T+3 We have 684/750 GPP hire 9 scientists.
T+4 We have 765/750 GPP. Generate GP hire 6 scientist. We lose 1 pop point to do this

Pigs.
T+0 hire 5 scientists. We have 576/750GPP.
T+2 hire 6 scientists. We have 666/750GPP.
T+3 hire 7 scientists. We have 720/750GPP.
T+4 hire 7 scientists. We have 783/900GPP.
T+5 We have 846/900 GPP. We lose 1 pop this turn. Hire 6 scientist.
T+6 We have 900/900 GPP. We lose 1 pop point this turn.

So for the cost of 1 pop in gold and 2 in pigs we can get our final GP on T+6. In order to do this we would need to mass hire scientists across our empire which would be no barracks in the capital/iron/stone by the time our research finished. Depending how the MM worked out we also might not be able to finish the forge in stone. (If we could get aesthetics n trade things would of course change-but this would not be that likely.)

So the question is: Is the cost worth it to be able to revolt to CS at the same time we make our other revolts.

 

[mdy]

If we wanted to finish all our research except CS by T+6 we would need the following:
(Note these figures are after you divide through by 1.2 for previous techs).

Compass: 304
Machinery: 76
Construction: 683
Aesthetics: 585

The bonus for other AI's knowing the tech is not taken into account.

Total: 1648 beakers = 275 beakers/turn compared to the current 222/turn. So we would have to hire, on average another 8.83 scientists every turn over the next 6 turns.

According to the GP plan gold would generate a total of 403 beakers.
Pigs would generate 276 beakers.

Total needed from other cities: 969 beakers.

The capital can generate 360 beakers maximum without losing a pop point.
Marble will generate 264 beakers in that time.

Can someone else look at the other cities I'm unavailable now for the next 7-8 hours.

 

[mdy]

If we hired 4 scientists in stone immediately we would get 210 beakers(Cost forge not finished at barracks not started at end of golden age).

If we let iron grow to size 4 and then hire 2 scientists we would get 144 beakers (Cost we have only just started the barracks).

Total beakers: 1657 v 1648 beakers needed, so we can just about do it, however I feel that the cost is fairly high, and that it would probably be better to generate our GS on T+7 as planned, lose the whip bonus for our first whip in the capital, and have a turn of anarchy to revolt to CS 5T after our main revolt. What does everyone else think?

 

[Mitchum]

I'm not sure that losing a turn of production empire wide for the Bureaucracy bonus in the capital will be worth it. Sure, our whipping is more efficient in the capital, but I think we need to get our warring started ASAP and a turn of anarchy before we've even started our military campaign would equate to an extra turn added to our end date (i.e. the Burea bonus won't make up for the lost turn of production). But that's just a feeling, not based on anything concrete.

Trying to get Civil Service done on time for an anarchy-free switch to Burea seems costly as well.

I'm on the fence right now.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I think we can actually generate a GP on T+6 instead of T+7

Just to clarify for anyone that didn't look at the saved game, T+6 puts us at the 2nd last turn of our Golden Age, meaning that the Great Person could Lightbulb on that turn and then giving us a chance to learn Civil Service in 1 turn by T+7. T+7 is the turn that we must switch Civics.

Regardless of the answer, I think that this turnset should stop play on T+6, so that we'll have time to decide upon build items that will be whipped on T+7. T+6 is really the "decision-making" turn, whereas T+7 doesn't have much in the way of decisions remaining to it.

So for the cost of 1 pop in gold and 2 in pigs we can get our final GP on T+6. In order to do this we would need to mass hire scientists across our empire which would be no barracks in the capital/iron/stone by the time our research finished. Depending how the MM worked out we also might not be able to finish the forge in stone. (If we could get aesthetics n trade things would of course change-but this would not be that likely.)

So the question is: Is the cost worth it to be able to revolt to CS at the same time we make our other revolts.

That cost is too high, so the answer is: "No, let's not severely handicap our empire just to be able to try and revolt into Civil Service on the last turn of the Golden Age."


Let's think about it:
The additional Hammers in Bureaucracy are stated as being +22 Hammers per population point whipped (+44 Hammers per 2-pop-whip), plus some additional Hammers when we're working the Mines. Of course, if we're doing a lot of whipping, then we aren't getting many Hammers from working Mines, and if we're working a lot of Mines, we aren't getting many Hammers from whipping. So, there is a limit to how many Hammers that we can make here.

There is also a gain in Commerce from Bureaucracy.

Other Cities will still offer 45 Hammers per whipped population point. However, to starve off 3 population points in other Cities would mean that Paris would have to 2-pop-whip FOUR TIMES before we'd start to see much of a payoff in Hammers (remember that heavy whipping in Paris means that we won't be getting more than a couple of Hammers per turn from citizens working squares--2 Hammers from the City Centre, yes, but probably very few from the Mines). That's not to say that we really SHOULD be doing heavy whipping in Paris, but if we do light whipping there, then the return on investment of pushing so hard to get Bureaucracy before the end of our Golden Age would take even longer to pay itself off.

Also, if we have to be extremely focused on generating Flasks, we'll be wasting not only current production but also future production.

For example:
Marble City can continue hiring its current amount of Scientists and will shrink in Size in 7 turns. To regrow that Food in the Foodbox will take a while and does have a cost in terms of lost future production. Even worse, if we are so focused on trying to squeeze out Flasks and GPP, we might have mistakes, such as accidentally allowing Marble City to shrink, increasing the cost of getting earlier Bureaucracy even higher.

In terms of current production, it would mean losing out on the base Hammers and the Golden Age's bonus Hammers in Iron City and Stone City.


The cost is too high.


In fact, we can actually afford to "let up" a bit in terms of Science.

Our real bottleneck is going to be production.

Any City that shrinks its Foodbox below the halfway mark is going to take a while to regrow that lost Food (which brings us below the Granary food level, making regrowth take longer than normal for a City that has a Granary)--while it is not as bad as shrinking the City, it comes close to being as bad as shrinking the City if we have an empty or nearly-empty Foodbox.

Thus, I think that for a City like Marble City, we should actually FIRE a Scientist. We have no "rush" on Science... Civil Service can come anytime within the 5 turns after the Golden Age. Far better will be to get the extra future production in Marble City by keeping that Food in our Foodbox.


Similarly, it's going to be better to be working 1, probably 2 GH Mines and an Engineer Specialist in Paris in favour of working some of the Scientist Specialists there. It's not like we even have a Library or an Academy there to multiply the Flasks.

Production has been our bottleneck and will continue to be our bottleneck, so let's focus on maximizing production.


As for Gold City versus Pig City 5th and 6th Great People, here's what I see:
Gold City can just keep merrily hiring its 6 Scientists and with a bit of micro in Pig City, we can get Gold City to generate Great Person #5. After Great Person #5 is generated in Gold City, we should fire a Scientist and work the Gold. Not only do we gain more Flasks overall this way, but we also gain some production to boot. So, if we need a real reason to decide between the Cities generating Great Person #5 versus #6, then this reason is a pretty good one to use.

From my calculations, here's what we have for Pig City:
Pig City has 576 GPP.
It makes 45 GPP per turn, but will have to only make 36 GPP for one turn by firing 1 Scientist for 1 turn so that Gold City can generate Great Person #5.
So, 576 + 36 = 612
After rehiring the 5th Scientist, we will have 6 turns remaining in Caste System, giving us only:
6 * 45 = 270 GPP
612 + 270 = 882 GPP

That situation leaves us 18 GPP short of generating Great Person #6, as seen here:

T+7: Continue construction (437+222*1.2=703, short 116 beakers!!!). Revolt to police state + slavery + paganism(?). Pig-fish only has two scientists but it will still reach 900 GPP on T+8.

Unfortunately, we can't do what is quoted above, since Pig City does not have a Library.

So, we will be painfully 18 GPP short of generating Great Person #6 with no way of easily obtaining it on T+7 without either whipping an otherwise-useless Library or without delaying the switch into Slavery until after the Golden Age ends (i.e. costing us 1 turn of Anarchy).

Of course, BEFORE we reach T+7, we have 6 turns of generating GPP with 5 Scientists--if we hire a 6th Scientist for 2 of those turns, we simply get +9 GPP at a cost of -6 Food from not working the Pig square. We just have to remember to do so. That's why I'd like to see a turn-by-turn breakdown just so that it's clear which turns will be used to fire, rehire, and hire yet another Scientist in Pig City, so that mistakes don't happen--as a mistake here would be very costly.


There are other things that I didn't really understand in shyuhe's proposed plan:

T+0: Set research to machinery (1545/1638)

Why research Machinery now? Doing so would just given Willem a boost on his research. We still need both Compass and Machinery before we can Lightbulb Optics, so we might as well stick with Compass -> Machinery, instead of the opposite.

T+1: ...Trade code of laws for monarchy + 70 gold with Cathy.

We have yet to make a Demand from Vicky and we need to do so before trading with Cathy, since Cathy is Vicky's Worst Enemy. We should first Demand all of Vicky's Gold. Vicky is still Pleased with us, so we could Demand all of Vicky's Gold (I think it was 40 Gold) on T+0, just to be sure to remember to do it... also, we don't know how long we'll keep Pleased status with Vicky, so I would rather take the money and run than keep delaying and risk losing that Pleased status with Vicky (meaning no more free Gold).

T+2: ...Trade philosophy for calendar + remaining gold with Cathy.

I looked at Diplo opportunities. For example, we could currently bribe Vicky with Philosophy + Monotheism + a sum of Gold (I think it was about 60 Gold) <-> War with Joao. I don't really want to do so, but it's an example of what was on the table.

There was also a chance to pay Ragnar to stop trading with Willem. However, since Ragnar is the most backwards AI, there IS NO TECH TRADING that will go on between these two, so it is a "trap" set by Ragnar... "ho ho ho, pay me techs so that I won't trade techs with Willem... but the only way that I might trade techs is if you are foolish enough to give me techs... and then I can begin trading techs with all of the other AIs... ha ha ha... a self-fulfilling prophecy." So, no, we don't want to make this trade, either.

The only Civic swapping that I saw was Vicky into Caste System, but at Pleased, she will refuse--she must be Friendly before you can switch her Civics. But, this situation got me thinking:
sure enough, the XML says that Cathy will switch Civics upon request at a CAUTIOUS Attitude!

So, after we trade Code of Laws to Cathy, we might be able to use Philosophy's "excess value" to also get her to revolt into Caste System.

Why would we want that?

Well, think about it: Cathy might build us an Academy or perhaps settle a Great Prophet for us. Cathy in Caste System can't whip up an army when we attack her.

So, if she'll switch into Caste System as part of that Philosophy trade deal (and there will be a lot of "excess value" in that "Philosophy <-> Code of Laws + a small sum of Gold" trade) it will be a good thing to get her to do so.

T+2: ...Bulb optics.

Why would we need to do so immediately? Why not wait? Well, actually, it is a good idea to Lightbulb Optics as soon as possible, since then we'd get +1 visibility from our Cultural Borders, meaning an immediate boost to fog-busting.

T+5: ...Double bulb astronomy.

This item I would be tempted not to do. We should probably leave the decision to the next player, since we won't be focusing hard-core on Science and therefore won't have a race condition with Civil Service. It will probably be worth our while to whip Galleys instead of Galleons. Only after the Galleons exist (not the turn that we whip them but the turn after we whip them) would we then need to Lightbulb Astronomy. If our research is such that we'd learn Civil Service, well, we can just set the Science Slider to 0%, perhaps even with a different tech selected, since we'll be mostly accumulating Gold anyway, while a delay in getting to Civil Service won't hurt us.


Again, PRODUCTION is going to be our bottleneck in this game, so the more "cheap units" that we can build or whip, the better.

If we'll use the "build some Barracks-enhanced Warriors" idea, then there will be no rush on Civil Service for Macemen, either.

Bureaucracy will have to wait to be used until 5 turns after the end of the Golden Age, if we use it at all. I'm thinking that Bureaucracy will be worth 1 turn of Anarchy, since most of our production will come from whipping, but it will be a bit of a short-to-medium-term investment that we may or may not choose to invest in at that time.



As for our Warriors, I suggest that the Fur Island Wariror moves 1E for now (1N of the PForest). Once we get Optics, we might be able to move him 1N, so probably keep him Unfortified so that he can move 1N (and allow for possible Forest growth on that square) once Optics arrives.


I think it was already the plan, but just in case it wasn't, I suggest that the Warrior going to the SE Horse island should stand on the PH square (1S of the GHorse). That way, the northern Coast of that island will be spawn-busted.


Actually, on that note, I suggest the following for Iron City:
Once it grows to Size 4, instead of working the PH Mine, hire an ARTIST Specialist for 4 turns (4 Culture per turn for 4 turns = 16 Culture), in order to expand the City's borders. Doing so will give us better fog-busting plus a +20% Cultural Defensive bonus in our border City, both of which will be useful to have.

We will have no need of more than 15 Culture, so once we have that amount (we'll actually have 16), we can work the PH Mine.

We won't have this opportunity once we switch into Slavery, so we might as well get this border expansion now.


As for the western Trireme... nah, no point in following Ragnar. If anything, we just want to see if his Galleys come back or if his capital sends out a new one. With this goal in mind, I suggest moving that Trireme 1SE (1E of the DesH Iron) and Skipping its Turn on each turn, so that you'll have visibility of most of the surrounding area. Ragnar with his 3-movement-point boats could probably "slip by" in the worst case scenario, but we'd see most of his naval action this way, while still doing a bit of spawn-busting on the western edge of our empire.


As for the Warrior at the north of Silk Island, we might want to Skip its Turn on each turn instead of Fortifying it... and thereby checking the F2 screen to see if we are paying Unit Supply costs. If we are paying such costs, we should probably aim to bring that Warrior back within our Cultural Borders, particularly when we have the Workers outside of our Cultural Borders on the SE Horse Island.

Again, if we aim to expand Iron City's Cultural borders using an Artist Specialist, then we'll be able to keep this Warrior "a bit closer" to the Silk but still within our borders, giving us a balance of additional spawn-busting and a lower Unit Supply cost.


By generating the 5th Great Person in Gold City, Gold City will not have to stop working any of its lucrative Seafood Resources (6 Food + 3 Commerce or 5 Food + 3 Commerce during a Golden Age). As I said above, it will also, after generating Great Person #5, be able to work the Gold square instead of hiring 1 Scientist, meaning that we'll get additional production and additional Flasks... the GPP at that point will be of no use, thus the Gold square becomes better than a Scientist Specialist as soon as we generate Great Person #5 there.

 

[shyuhe]

I don't understand why you would want to build a galley instead of a galleon.

I think it's better to go with the plan that lets us revolt into bureau during the GA. We lose 3 pop in the process but the extra hammers we get from bureau whips in Paris will outweigh it. It's basically trading 3 pop for a turn of anarchy.

Compass--machinery costs 3 turns of research. Machinery--compass costs only 2.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

My understanding was that we could barely meet the Civil Service by "Golden Age - 2T" target date or that we might not even meet it. But, assuming that we can meet it, the cost is far more than 3 lost population points.

In terms of base Hammers, we're talking about a loss of production in Stone City, a loss of production in Iron City, a loss of production in Paris, and a loss of production in Gold City.

In terms of whipped Hammers, we're talking about a loss of production in Marble City and in any other City that works negative Food in order to obtain more Flasks. That Food takes time to regrow, and while we're spending time regrowing, that's less turns of future production from whipping.

On top of that, each whipped population point = 45 base Hammers, which will be multiplied by Police State to equal 45 * 1.25 = 56 Hammers. So, those 3 population points cost us a loss of 168 Hammers.

Whipping a population point in Paris without Bureaucracy = 67 Hammers, while whipping with Bureaucracy = 90 Hammers, meaning that without Bureaucracy, we'll still be getting 75% of the Hammers.

All of this "rushing" to get Science a bit sooner accomplishes nothing of value other than giving us 1 saved turn of Anarchy and 5 extra turns worth of Bureaucracy.

In fact, we fall behind considerably in the production department. After Civil Service, we have no real need for Science and very little use for Gold (unless we build a few cheap units, as I am suggesting) in terms of getting our war started. Yet, "rushing to Civil Serivce" gets us extra Flasks and presumably a bit more Gold, in exchange for a loss of a TON of production.


If we had a real need for this extra Science, such as during a race to Liberalism, it might be worth the sacrifice. But we're at a time where we're desperately short on production, so it seems like a poor investment to throw away a lot of that production for the net savings of 1 turn of Anarchy plus 5 turns' worth of Bureaucracy in a capital that is poorly-suited for Bureaucracy and which doesn't even have any Science-multiplying buildings like a Library or an Academy for Bureaucracy's strongest power: multiplicative (intead of additive) gains on Commerce (the gains on Hammers are only additive).

Compass--machinery costs 3 turns of research. Machinery--compass costs only 2.

We'll get the same number of Flasks using either method, but yes, since Machinery is within a couple of Flasks' worth of completion, you can very likely have them both researched 1 turn sooner, as you are suggesting, due to the timing of when we get the overflow Flasks (appearing out of Machinery into Compass or out of Machinery into Aesthetics).

However, that will likely mean Willem researching Machinery 1 turn sooner, or at least a partial-turn sooner, as well.

We're not in a race to get to Optics, so I'd prefer to pick the approach that delays Willem's research, particularly since he is the tech leader. If you are seriously concerned about him going for other techs, such as Engineering (or Feudalism, Optics, etc), then I'd think that you'd prefer the option that will delay his research.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Let's take Paris as an example.

The last turn of the Golden Age won't have us in Caste System, so it won't count--that last turn of the Golden Age will probably have us doing the same thing regardless of which scenario we pick, thus there's little point in comparing two things that will be identical to each other.

Right now, we have 8 turns worth of Golden Age, so we can count for 7 turns.

Note that I will ignore raw Commerce coming from sources that are identical (such as working a Clam in Paris when we work the same Clam in both cases) except for the turn of Anarchy, where I will count this additional Commerce for the scenario that doesn't need to "use up" 1 turn of Anarchy to revolt into Bureaucracy.

Paris can work either:
A] 2 Clams, 2 GH Mines, an Engineer Specialist, and 3 Scientist Specialists
OR
B] 2 Clams and 6 Scientist Specialists

In case A], Paris will make 13 base Hammers per turn, which gets multiplied by the Forge into 16 Hammers per turn. It will lose 2 Food per turn. It will gain us 1 * 3 + 3 * 6 = 3 + 18 = 21 Flasks per turn. It will also make 4 * 9 = 36 GPP per turn.

In case B], Paris will make 3 base Hammers per turn, which don't get to use the Forge bonus and thus stay as 3 Hammers per turn. It will lose 4 Food per turn. It will also make 6 * 6 = 36 Flasks per turn. It will also make 6 * 9 = 54 GPP per turn.


The Food is hard to value, but we know that the Food is essentially worth some amount of production. However, let's hold off until later, since the Food lost during 1 turn of Anarchy might balance the difference in Food, making the conversion of Food to Hammers less important in this comparison. We'll see (I don't know the answer yet).

So, after 7 turns, we'll have
A] 7 * 13 = 91 Hammers (a Barracks completed, a Warrior built, and 2 Hammers short of a second Warrior being built--those Warriors will be future Macemen, by the way),
7 * -2 = -14 Food (we could also fire a Scientist Specialist and work the Corn for some of the turns--being careful not to grow so we couldn't do so on every turn, but I was trying to give as close of a comparison as possible and valuing "Food converted into Hammers" is tougher to do than valuing Hammers or Flasks),
7 * 21 = 147 Flasks, and
7 * 36 = 252 GPP

B] 7 * 3 = 21 Hammers,
7 * -4 = -28 Food,
7 * 36 = 252 Flasks, and
7 * 54 = 389 GPP


Paris, however, only has 299 GPP. 299 + 389 = 688 GPP. Our next Great Person will cost us 1050 GPP. Even if we hire 1 Engineer after the Golden Age, we'll be making 5 GPP * 2 = 10 GPP for the last turn of the Golden Age, plus 5 GPP per turn thereafter. That gives us maximally 688 + 10 = 698 GPP at the end of the Golden Age, and 1050 - 698 = 352 GPP to go. 352 / 5 = 71 more turns for our next Great Person.

The difference between the two scenarios is that in A], we'd have 1050 - 561 = 489 GPP to go. 489 / 5 = 98 more turns for our next Great Person.

If we care about getting Great Person #7 71 turns from now, then there's a minor benefit to Paris' additional GPP. If we don't care (I'm not even sure what we'd do with a Great Scientist or Great Engineer at that late stage of the game), then the extra GPP is meaningless.


For the one turn of Anarchy, which Scenario B] will not suffer, B] is presumed to be working:
2 Clams, 1 Corn, 2 GH Mines, and optionally 1 Coast or 1 Engineer Specialist, since we'll have whipped from 8 population points down to 6 population points. Let's say that we're working the Coast, sicne whipping will probably give us more Hammers than the Engineer Specialist, even without Bureaucracy.

That turn of saved Anarchy gives us:
9 Food,
8 base Hammers (which we will multiply by the Forge, Police State, and Bureaucracy--note that the above Hammers in scenario A] did not get the Police State bonus), giving us 8 * 2 = 16 Hammers,
18 Commerce, multiplied by the Bureaucracy bonus, giving us 18 * 1.5 = 27 Gold, and
2 GPP

When we whip that one time in Paris for 2 population points, we will also gain an additional 44 Hammers.


So, in total, we see:
A] 91 Hammers, -14 Food, 147 Flasks, 252 GPP
B] 21 + 16 + 44 = 81 Hammers, -28 + 9 = -19 Food, 252 + 27 = 279 Flasks + Gold, and 389 + 2 = 391 GPP


Now, that's the best case scenario, since it is the City that gets to utilize Bureacuracy, and we're still behind a bit in terms of production. We don't even have the leeway to say "well, we could work an Engineer Specialist instead of a Scientist Specialist in order to gain 2 more Hammers plus a bonus Hammer from the Forge," since it is FLASKS and not GPP that we are trying to push for in Scenario B]. Every Flask counts in Scenario B], at the cost of anything else.



So, let's look at another City, say, Stone City:
Stone City can either work
C] Magical Fish, Stone, GH Mine, G Workshop, and DesH Mine
OR
D] Magical Fish and 4 Scientist Specialists

The results are:
C] 4 * 18 = 72 Hammers, and then the Forge will be completed, so add 3 * (18 * 1.25) = 3 * (18 + 4) = 3 * 22 = 66 Hammers, for a total of 72 + 66 = 138 Hammers,
7 * 1 = 7 Food,
0 Flasks,
and 0 GPP

D] 7 * 2 = 14 Hammers,
7 * -3 = -21 Food,
7 * (4 * 6) = 7 * 24 = 168 Flasks,
and 7 * (4 * 9) = 7 * 36 = 252 GPP

Unlike the Paris scenario, there is no doubt that these GPP are 100% throw-away GPP.

We don't get any bonus from Bureaucracy here, and it could even be argued that empire-wide, we'll lose roughly 2 Commerce for being in the more-expensive Bureaucracy Civic, but otherwise, there is not real effect here.

We do need to calculate one additional turn outside non-Anarchy. Presumably, by that point, we will be working:
Magical Fish, Stone, GH Mine, and 2 Coasts (since the extra Food from working the Coasts will beat out a 1 Food + 1 Hammer Workshop and a 3 Hammer DesH Mine).
So, that gives us:
8 Hammers (still without a Forge's bonus as we won't have completed the Forge yet),
4 Food,
7 Commerce (aka 7 Gold), and
0 GPP

So, the net results are:
C] 138 Hammers, 7 Food, 0 Flasks, and 0 GPP
D] 14 + 8 = 22 Hammers, -21 + 4 = -17 Food, 168 + 7 = 175 Flasks + Gold, and 252 + 0 = 252 GPP--but these GPP are throw-away



So far, from just these two Cities, we have:
A] + C] 91 + 138 = 229 Hammers, -14 + 7 = -7 Food, 147 + 0 = 147 Flasks, 0 Gold, and 252 + 0 = 252 possibly-useful GPP
B] + D] 81 + 22 = 103 Hammers, -19 + -17 = -36 Food, 252 + 168 = 420 Flasks, 27 + 7 = 34 Gold, and 391 + 0 possibly-useful GPP


Now, how do we value that difference of -7 - -36 = 29 Food? Well, that's about how much Food it will take to grow 1 population point in a City with a Granary. If we assign that Food to a City like Stone City (i.e. not using Paris' Bureaucracy), it would give us 45 * 1.5 (since we'd have used our excess Hammers to have completed the Forge in Scenario C]) = 67 Hammers

Thus, A] + C] really has 229 + 67 = 296 Hammers

The total difference is:
296 - 103 = 193 Hammers

versus

420 - 147 = 250 Flasks
AND
34 - 0 = 34 Gold
AND
391 - 252 = 139 possibly-useful GPP

EDIT: Note that we have not even factored in the lost Hammers from the 3 population points that would need to be sacrificed in the "B] + D]" scenario.


The problem is that production is our bottleneck... we can get additional Flasks/Commerce/Gold/whatever you want to call it from our empire just "existing" for a few turns. What we can't do is gain back that lost production.


The sooner that we can convert our tech lead into Military Units, the better. To do so, we need one thing and one thing only: production.



As for Warriors versus Macemen or Galleys versus Galleons, production will still be our bottleneck in terms of getting our wars going, no matter which scenario we follow. Gold, however, will be in large supply and we won't need to use it for anything until after we capture Cities... and even then, Gold received from capturing Cities usually pays for the newly-captured Cities for a good number of turns.

Thus, we will be making (some) Flasks and a decent amount of Gold... if we cannot find a way to turn this excess into production, then we'll fall further behind.

One way to turn the Flasks into production is to research Civil Service a bit slower while working more production-based squares.

One way to turn Gold into production is to build Build Items that are cheaper in terms of Hammers and then leverage our Gold reserves to upgrade these units.

Without doing these things, then any additional Flasks and Gold received after the end of the 2nd last turn of the Golden Age will be THROWN AWAY.

So, in the above comparison, the "extra Flasks and Gold" will have next to ZERO VALUE... unless we find a way to use them. The way to use the Flasks is to get less of them and get more production in exchange. The way to use the Gold is to build lower-Hammer-cost units and then actually have a use for the Gold (upgrading units).



Adding further Cities to the equation further skews things in favour of more production, but I think that the case has been made without having to do those additional calcluations.

 

[shyuhe]

Ok, I don't have time to re-calculate it but how about a general plan where we pop pigs on T+4 and pop gold on T+7 (I think?). We set research to compass--machinery (bulb optics) -- aesthetics (bulb astronomy around here) -- construction (bulb engineering) -- civil service. At the worst, we get an artist on T+4 and the astro GS on T+7 (or whatever the turn is), and fight without trebs. At the best, we get astro during the GA and bulb engineering right after the GA ends (or thereabouts). We ignore bureaucracy in favor of whipping units ASAP to start invading. We should complete research around T+9 or so with this plan and we can start building some axes to upgrade into maces with our spare gold.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

From my understanding, as long as we're not trying to revolt into Bureaucracy within the Golden Age time period, there is only a marginal difference between generating Great Person #5 versus #6 in Gold City.

The biggest difference is that whichever of Gold City or Pig City generates Great Person #5 will have a bit more Food and will have the option to fire a Scientist or two in favour of working an additional square.

Pig City can only work extra Coasts (or steal the DesH Mine from Stone City, but then Stone City would have to work a Coast, so in the balance, it would still just be +1 Coast), so there is no value in working different squares there. Gold City can work a Gold Mine instead of hiring a Specialist, which gets us 4 Hammers and 8 Commerce turn compared to 6 Flasks and 9 GPP. However, if Gold City generates Great Person #5, then the 9 GPP are useless, and 4 Hammers + 8 Commerce is far stronger than 6 Flasks.

Hence, given that it is easy enough to swap which City generates the Great Person, I'd suggest that Gold City is the better choice for Great Person #5 in terms of being able to get more Hammers and Commerce overall for our empire, as well as for slightly reducing the chance of getting a Great Artist.


Either method would allow us to Lightbulb Astronomy eventually, but getting Great Person #5 in Gold City would GUARANTEE that we can Lightbulb Astronomy early, since we'll have a 100% chance of getting a Great Scientist there.

I don't support the idea of Lightbulbing Astronomy early, but since you do, I would think that you would be better served by pushing for Gold City to generate Great Person #5.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

As for 1 turn of Anarchy for Bureaucracy versus staying out of Bureaucracy, it will be a lot easier to calculate "at the time of needing to decide," as we'll have a clear picture of just how large our Cities are and exactly how much Food + Hammers + Commerce will be lost by losing 1 turn worth of production. We also won't be in a Golden Age--trying to look at the game and project the numbers now while inside of a Golden Age is a bit of a headache.

So, I suggest that we put off the decision on revolting into Bureaucracy until the first turn that we can possibly do so... then it will just be a matter of pausing play, uploading the game, and whoever wants to be the nice person can calculate the cost of 1 turn of Anarchy. Then we can compare that cost compared to our expected future whipping plans in Paris and see how long it would take for us to recover.

We'll also have a better idea of how valuable additional Flasks or Gold will be from that point onwards (they will be of very little value if we've already got Astronomy and have hooked up Iron) than we can predict right now.