SGOTM 14 - Kakumeika

[bcool]

not much we can do about it. I don't think we are considering changing our builds until we see the result. play it out 1 more turn then we can see if we change anything.

Finally the fur! I can't believe he didn't give us fur in the starting area too. And I can't believe I forgot about it

 

[mabraham]

not much we can do about it. I don't think we are considering changing our builds until we see the result. play it out 1 more turn then we can see if we change anything.

Finally the fur! I can't believe he didn't give us fur in the starting area too. And I can't believe I forgot about it

Yeah, bunker down and take the hit.

 

[mabraham]

I did match mabraham's T75 with a granary/lighthouse/GLH however and i'm at 3 pop instead of 2. (I chopped a forest outside of the BFC however for 10 hammers) and growing to 4 pop the next turn.

I cheated a little bit (world built in another worker to help chop the 3rd forest. I'm confident I can repeat this performance without doing that in the real game

Either by building a worker in the capital or not chopping a forest for the capital with one of the 2 workers we have near stone city.

I had Eiffel and Fritz doing nothing at all for the capital, so your long-range chop must be possible (plus correct BFC chops).

 

[mabraham]

not much we can do about it.

... and the bear is out of range of anything we'd do in this turn set. It couldn't beeline killing our gems settler.

We probably couldn't afford to send the warrior fogbusting the gems to replace Burke until after the settler and GW arrives.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Ok, here are the results of the bear attack

Spoiler :

The frown was because Burke got knocked down to 0.9 hp and must stop exploring 5 turns






Meeting a new AI counts as another stopping condition, so I must halt again on T46.
I see that the pair who got Judaism early is the north witches. Our tech pace increased slightly because they know masonry.

The middle of the map terrian pretty much seals the case on hub/wheel map.

I too forgot about fur

 

[bcool]

about the bear

about them knowing masonry... english start with fishing too...
which english leader is it and what are their traits?

 

[bcool]

we can probably figure out who of the known AI know sailing too, by looking at the actual research rate versus expected (from demo screen stats). do you know how to do that Kaitzilla?

 

[Kaitzilla]

It is Elizabeth (Philosophical, Financial) and Ghenghis Khan (Aggressive, Imperialistic)

The northern witches have not yet made contact with the eastern witches. The have no diplomatic relations with each other.

 

[mabraham]

about the bear

about them knowing masonry... english start with fishing too...
which english leader is it and what are their traits?

Fortunately, none of our known AIs can be industrial.

Hinduism appears to have gone to an unknown team (else the teammate of the existing holy city owners would have had the holy city allocated, and probably switched to Hinduism), which is good news for us.

It does look like the AI teams might be four pairs of wicked witches and thus the Wizard is a unit. Beware Burke being killed by a mech inf any second now...

I can't think of any relevant diplo decisions we should make, since we haven't got trade routes yet.

The main decision at this point is the EP split. Perhaps we should focus on the better-teching pair so we eventually learn their tech path. We can only guess based on the leader traits and UB, however. That suggests the northern witches are the better-teching pair.

 

[bcool]

Do you think Genghis lost a city to barbarians? He is imperialistic and only has the 1 city?

close call on the teching race of the witches. Since Genghis is at 1 city, maybe the eastern witches are going to do better?

I'm okay staying with the eastern witches, elizabeth is more likely to bulb a tech however...

 

[mabraham]

Do you think Genghis lost a city to barbarians? He is imperialistic and only has the 1 city?

Nah, he's beelining GW!

close call on the teching race of the witches. Since Genghis is at 1 city, maybe the eastern witches are going to do better?

I'm okay staying with the eastern witches, elizabeth is more likely to bulb a tech however...

I'm easy either way.

 

[Kaitzilla]

I am uncertain if we can infer that the AI know sailing from demographics screen.


Once we are researching sailing for a turn after the overflow turn, we can compare expected beakers vs. beakers we actually got. +17 multiplied by 20% modifier from knowing fishing will yield the expected beakers.

If the actual beakers researched the next turn is one or two higher than expected, then one or both of the AI pairs must know sailing to accelerate our tech rate that extra tiny bit.

I am unsure if 17 is a large enough amount to divine the difference between 2 AI knowing sailing and 4 AI knowing sailing.

Here is the guide explaining research bonus from knowing AI's who already have the tech: http://www.civfanatics.com/civ4/strategy/tech_research.php



There isn't a whole lot we can do if the witches decide they want our favorite wonders for themselves. They research a lot faster than us at the start of the game.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Here are the info screenshots I took on T46. It might shed a bit of light on who is doing better on the north witches vs. east witches question.

Spoiler :

 

[bcool]

If you look at the demographics screen and our GNP it gives you an idea of the research modifier that exists on the technology you are currently researching.

For example if you select sailing in frogdude's T48 testgame it gives our GNP as 30, but if you select pottery our GNP is 33. You can also manipulate the amount of commerce you make per turn reversibly as well. You can work the lakes in the capital for example instead of the corn or cows. That changes the amount of research we generate and thus the base number that the other research modifiers change.
So you can figure out more about what AI might know than you think by artificially changing your commerce and looking how the GNP changes or doesn't change.
If you know what the modifiers are for 2 AI knowing a tech vs. 4 AI knowing a tech then you might be able to determine if 1 pair or both pairs know sailing.

I believe the GNP number of the demographics screen is total research generated with modifiers, + culture produced + espionage. So if you subtract 6 from the GNP you get the actual research we would produce on the selected tech after all modifiers.

I haven't actually done this to determine what technologies AI know or don't know. I just watched other experienced players do it on a previous sgotm.

So I will need to work out the details myself to give you any more detailed information.

 

[Kaitzilla]

If you look at the demographics screen and our GNP it gives you an idea of the research modifier that exists on the technology you are currently researching.

For example if you select sailing in frogdude's T48 testgame it gives our GNP as 30, but if you select pottery our GNP is 33. You can also manipulate the amount of commerce you make per turn reversibly as well. You can work the lakes in the capital for example instead of the corn or cows. That changes the amount of research we generate and thus the base number that the other research modifiers change.
So you can figure out more about what AI might know than you think by artificially changing your commerce and looking how the GNP changes or doesn't change.
If you know what the modifiers are for 2 AI knowing a tech vs. 4 AI knowing a tech then you might be able to determine if 1 pair or both pairs know sailing.

I believe the GNP number of the demographics screen is total research generated with modifiers, + culture produced + espionage. So if you subtract 6 from the GNP you get the actual research we would produce on the selected tech after all modifiers.

I haven't actually done this to determine what technologies AI know or don't know. I just watched other experienced players do it on a previous sgotm.

So I will need to work out the details myself to give you any more detailed information.

Wow, that is quite the tip. We know all 4 AI have hunting, and 2 AI certainly have masonry. I will switch to hunting and check demo screen gnp, switch to sailing and check demo screen gnp, and then switch back to masonry and save and exit. I'll have those numbers shortly.


*Edit* Ok, here is the GNP info for all 3 of those techs:

Spoiler :

I am unsure how to interperate those numbers.

 

[bcool]

Can you do the same with maximum commerce, just the numbers is fine unless the screenshots are easier?

Also can you check the F2 screen and tell get the expenses (apparently this is subtracted from the sum of (total research * modifiers + culture + espionage) to get the GNP number.)

 

[Kaitzilla]

Ok, redoing the test with maximum commerce. I'll do the numbers only this time.

I will make sure to put the cities and masonry back when finished before saving and exiting.


*Edit* Ok, the commerce was boosted to 21 briefly, up from 17.

The new numbers are Masonry-33GNP, Sailing-31GNP, Hunting-28GNP

Our expenses are 2 commerce right now. 1 for city maintenance and 1 for civic upkeep.

 

[bcool]

I'll try to figure it out, will take quite some time I think

 

[frogdude]

Ok, redoing the test with maximum commerce. I'll do the numbers only this time.

I will make sure to put the cities and masonry back when finished before saving and exiting.


*Edit* Ok, the commerce was boosted to 21 briefly, up from 17.

The new numbers are Masonry-33GNP, Sailing-31GNP, Hunting-28GNP

Our expenses are 2 commerce right now. 1 for city maintenance and 1 for civic upkeep.

There are effectively only three states: None of AI know the tech. 1 of the them know it. 2 of them know it.

So the tech switching above coming up with 33, 31 & 28 means that both of the AI must have Masonry or Hunting (and neither of them have the other), and one of the AI has sailing.

Assuming that our GNP goes up with the AI having the tech we're researching, thus indicates that both have masonry, and neither have hunting. This is also consistent with the tech pace of masonry having increased.

However, given that they must have started with hunting, either the mapmaker is playing games with us by taking it off them, or I have no idea what I'm talking about.
I'm personally voting for the latter.

Maybe some numbers for other techs that we could potentially research could give us info? Are there any techs we don't have that we can guarantee the others both have (Mysticism?).

 

[Kaitzilla]

Yes, I don't know what is going on. The soldiers analysis we did earlier indicated all the AI had hunting and archery at the start.

Ill try to get a number on mysticism too. Both AI pairs have a religion, so they HAVE to have mysticism.


*Edit* Ok, with 21 commerce, Mysticism - 28GNP


I'm in favor of keeping the espionage on the east witches because they are ahead in score and we have a good chance of getting a culture bridge, a blessing for spys and invasions.
I'm still in favor of sailing first for earlier Great Lighthouse too.