SGOTM 15 - One Short Straw

Dhoomstriker said:
I'm confused... isn't that what I wrote in the PPP?
EDIT: I just saw your edit... nevermind. :p



Okay.

Should I pause play before warring on T82 so that we can analyze the situation? For example, discuss how many units are in Osaka? Or shall I just proceed with the fighting as planned?

I.e.
Bombard with 3 Cats
Unpromoted Cat
If a CRI Cat gets 70% or better odds against the top defender, attack with it, otherwise attack with an unpromoted Cat
The other Cat that hasn't attacked
Up to 4 Axes attack
Toku's Archer in the SW gets its butt kicked by our Axe, and if we fail but the Archer is badly wounded, we'll follow-up with our Warrior (worst case, we'll lose both units and will have our Spearman nearby)
Click to expand...
Oops, sorry I deserted you. Got caught up reading some nonsense on the web.

You can play it as you wish. Play it straight through or stop and we calculate odds each step of the way. Your plan sounds good to me either way.
 
Dhoom, the plan looks very good. :goodjob:

One VERY minor point. All things being equal, the NC axe that is going to kill Toku's wandering archer could move SE+S rather than SE+SE on T80 and then SW onto the GFor on T81. This still puts him into position to kill the archer on T82 but gives us an infinitesimally small chance of a forest growth on the hill the axe would otherwise be standing on...

I'm glad that you're playing this turnset, Dhoom. This is the most important turnset so far and it's good to have a meticulous player playing it! There is going to be a lot to keep track of in the next 10ish turns.

I’m getting excited up for the upcoming battle. If it were me, I’d be playing my pump-me-song in the background during the turnset. Everyone has that song that gets them ready for battle, whether it be on the volleyball court, the chess board or the Civ arena. The question is “What is your pump-me-up song?” because you better get it queued up!! Mine is ready and I’m just watching from the sidelines! :D

When do you plan to play?
 
Mitchum said:
One VERY minor point. All things being equal, the NC axe that is going to kill Toku's wandering archer could move SE+S rather than SE+SE on T80 and then SW onto the GFor on T81. This still puts him into position to kill the archer on T82 but gives us an infinitesimally small chance of a forest growth on the hill the axe would otherwise be standing on...
Click to expand...
I can definitely move SE + S on T80. The reason why I was moving to the GHRiv on T81 was because that square was the one that I figured the Archer would move to.

That said, unless Toku declares on us (very unlikely) or unless I misclick and declare war on Toku too early, it really won't matter where our Axeman stands, so, sure, I can go with your suggested movements here.


Mitchum said:
When do you plan to play?
Click to expand...
In reality, probably somewhere around 8 hours from now, but that number could be off by a bit, since I'm not sure when I'll be arriving home this evening.

I would have liked to have had a plan that goes further ahead than 2 turns, but I'm actually happy with only playing two turns for now for a couple of reasons:
1. I really want our units to be named in a way that I can refer to them easily by name, rather than just their relative position on the map
AND
2. There are still a number of unknowns that make movements hard to plan in the long-run... where are the Barbs near Zlatorog, where is Hammy's stack (if he has one), how many units Toku will have in Osaka, whether or not we'll lose 2 units to Toku's SW Archer, etc.
 
One thing to keep in mind:
We won't be able to trade Alphabet around to other AIs, due to the No Tech Brokering option being enabled.

This option may end up playing with our heads.

For example, if there are two or three AIs that are buddy-buddy with each other and we can tell that an AI is soon going to learn a tech (such as Toku being 2 turns away from Math), it can be to our great advantage to gift Math to him. Since he will have self-teched most of it, he won't gain much advantage from us.

On the other hand, he will be unable to trade Math away to any other AI, reducing its competitive advantage of being in his hands.

So, after we learn Alphabet, and particularly after we learn Currency (so that we can perform Tech-for-Gold trades), we'll want to keep an eye on AIs' tech progress by seeing what they will give to us for one of our techs... and if they have a large lump sum of Gold but will only trade some of it for a tech that few or no other AIs have, we will want to seriously consider gifting them said tech, just to keep it out of the hands of the other AIs.
 
T80, 875 BC Real Game Partial Report
Hammy: 76 EPs invested, 66 EPs needed for Demographics
Hatty: 28 EPs invested, 58 EPs needed for Demographics; Adding +4 per turn
Osaka: Sabotage Building: 384 EPs needed
Osaka: Sabotage Production: 145 EPs needed
Toku is trading Sheep to Hammy for Clam
We can actually trade Resources to all 3 AIs. From this we know that:
1. Any AI will gladly take a surplus Gold Resource from us. Do we want to gift a Gold Resource to anyone?
Note that gifted Resources do increase the amount that you can Request or Demand from an AI in terms of Gold or Tech value.

2. Hammy is the only one with Stone access

3. Hatty has at least 1 Gem Resource

All AIs (that we have met) will share a Favourite Civic once they learn Banking, so if it's a Buddhist Apostolic Palace, we'll eventually lose to it unless we control it really well.

Only Toku knows Alphabet. I gifted him Mysticism.

Our Warrior in the NW does not spot a Barb unit on the GRiv For:
 
Okay, so I'm pretty much done moving our units on T80, so it's too late to ask me to move them differently.

I did notice something interesting. Not surprisingly, Hatty has Ivory (yes, AIs do get Civ-specific Resources and that's one that Hatty often gets). So, if we can take her on relatively soon, we could get a competitive advantage against other teams... us being the ones to field War Elephants while other teams could have Hatty being the one to field War Elephants.
 
Upon further reflection, let's hold onto our second Gold Resource instead of gifting it away. Doing will give us the option to get 10 turns of Peace if an AI Demands it form us.

Toku rarely Demands things and all of the AIs really are Tokus (even though we should still call them Hammy and Hatty, as far as I am concerned, to avoid confusing ourselves), so we might never see a Demand... but yeah, I guess we should just keep the possibility open for the AIs to make a Demand from us.

Besides, the moment that I gift away a Gold Resource, it would be just my luck to see an AI offer up Silver for trade or something like that on the following turn. :crazyeye: So, we'll also keep our Silver in case an AI offers up a Resource (although, practically speaking, we can't ask for it in trade, but sometimes the AIs will offer a trade with someone that they hate--you just have to accept the trade instead of renegotiating it... which includes Open Borders and Tech Trades... I'm not sure if it includes Resource Trades but I don't see why there would be an exception in the code to exclude them, so let's keep that possibility open).


@Mitchum: I have "my song" on repeat. It's actually a song that I just happen to have on the computer; not necessarily my favourite song. Hopefully I won't be tired of it by the time that T82 rolls around.
 
T81, 850 BC Real Game Partial Report
A Barb Warrior suicided on our Axeman near Hammy, giving us 1 XP and bringing us to 4.5/5 Health.
Spoiler :


Hammy: 76 EPs invested, 66 EPs needed for Demographics (no change). He has 108 EPs invested in us.
Hatty: 32 EPs invested, 60 EPs needed for Demographics (increased by 2); Adding +4 per turn. She has 90 EPs invested in us.
Toku: He has 248 EPs invested in us.
Osaka: Sabotage Building: 384 EPs needed
Osaka: Sabotage Production: 184 EPs needed

F4 -> Resources: looks the same
F4 -> Techs: We still just see Toku wanting Med, Math and Not Trading Fishing, Alpha, Archery, and Iron Working

Neither Toku nor Hatty is planning a war as per the trading screen.

Toku's Archer in the SW went where we expected, on top of the GRiv For that is 3S of NC.

Osaka is still at Size 5 and still only has the 2 Archers inside of it. Perhaps we'll see a Swordsman come out? I'd rather that than an Axeman, since our Axes can chew up Swords pretty nicely.
 
T81 Continued
I just noticed an opportunity to get our Spearman in GEL 1 turn faster... I won't take this option unless someone speaks up wanting it, but I figured that since I noticed the possibility, I would at least mention it (switching the GRiv Farm for an unimproved GH Riv square). We probably don't need that Spear ASAP like that, and it won't really help us in attacking Osaka, but again, I just thought I'd mention it since we hadn't talked about the possibility previously.
Spoiler :



Not too much new info around Hammy, but I did notice that he has a PH Iron Mine on the edge of his Cultural Borders. We probably saw it earlier but I spent almost all of my time in the test game up until now, so I only just noticed it.
Spoiler :
 
Unless I am mistaken, our scouting Axeman should be able to move 1S GHFor and stay there, which would:
a) Put him on the best defensive square possible
AND
b) Give him a view of the GHRiv For to the NE + NE, meaning that Hammy could not sneak a stack past his view as long as we SKIP his turn each turn and DON'T Fortify and DON'T Sentry him... only if we visually look there each turn will we see Hammy's army, and the best way to remember to look is to have to manually Skip your unit's turn (by pressing the Spacebar) on each turn
AND
c) Be able to see over what looks like a flat Grassland square 1S of there to the Coast, which should hopefully allow us to spot any incoming naval fleet


In fact, with no Resource caches to the east of there, Hammy is unlikely to settle a City to the east of there anytime soon, meaning that we won't have to worry about his Cultural Borders forcing us to find a new advance-scouting location.
 
Our Warrior to the west of Zlatorog:


I am torn between leaving the Warrior in place on the GRiv (2W of Zlat) or moving him 1E onto the GRiv (1W of Zlat).

Staying in place allows us to spot if a Barb Archer comes next to the chokepoint, which would let us move both the Axe and the Warrior the chokepoint.

Moving 1E un-spawn-busts one land square to the west of the Lake. We will also get a negligible chance for a free Forest.

Since we can just move back to that same square next turn, there's no real other difference, since we'll see the same number of revealed squares next turn, too.


I think that I'll move the Warrior 1E, then back again 1W next turn.
 
Dhoomstriker said:
Unless I am mistaken, our scouting Axeman should be able to move 1S GHFor and stay there
Click to expand...
Hammy's stack is likely to be in Babylon and will come toward us via the iron hill road. If he waits where he is, we get 1 more turn advanced notice about his approach. From the GForHill the advance notice is 5 turns to the chokepoint. I would prefer more but getting to see the coast perhaps outweighs the extra turn. I'll go with your decision.

xpost
 
Dhoomstriker said:
Our Warrior to the west of Zlatorog:


I am torn between leaving the Warrior in place on the GRiv (2W of Zlat) or moving him 1E onto the GRiv (1W of Zlat).

Staying in place allows us to spot if a Barb Archer comes next to the chokepoint, which would let us move both the Axe and the Warrior the chokepoint.

Moving 1E un-spawn-busts one land square to the west of the Lake. We will also get a negligible chance for a free Forest.

Since we can just move back to that same square next turn, there's no real other difference, since we'll see the same number of revealed squares next turn, too.


I think that I'll move the Warrior 1E, then back again 1W next turn.
Click to expand...
Spawning a barb archer there puts a certain amount of pressure on our axe with two more barbs on their way, especially with the back-up axe several turns away. I'd think it's safer to wait till our axe acquires at least one promotion.
 
Never mind my last post. The approaching barb warrior is already spawnbusting that tile, so you can freely move our warrior in hopes of forest growth. The barb warrior should be on the wheat T82.

EDIT: I'm around but taking my dog for a walk, so I won't be able to respond for a little while.
 
T81, 850 BC Continued
I noticed that Hatty and Toku like each other by +1 Attitude for having shared Open Borders for a while... I'm not sure if that was already the case last turn or not.

Hatty is running Organized Religion, so that fact means that she definitely has Polytheism and Monotheism.

LowtherCastle said:
Never mind my last post. The approaching barb warrior is already spawnbusting that tile, so you can freely move our warrior in hopes of forest growth. The barb warrior should be on the wheat T82.
Click to expand...
That's assuming that the Barb Warrior really is beelining us, but I guess we have to go with that assumption... besides, if the Barb Warrior is not beelining us, then we don't care if another Barb Archer randomly spawns, since both are unlikely to beeline us at once in that case.
 
T81, 850 BC Continued
I moved our western Warrior 1S instead of 1E since we didn't care about un-spawn-busting a square and to see if there was a Galley 1SW of the Lake... which there is not.


T82, 825 BC Real Game Report
Hammy: 76 EPs invested, 66 EPs needed for Demographics (no change). He has 109 EPs invested in us (+1 relative to last turn).
Hatty: 36 EPs invested, 61 EPs needed for Demographics (increased by 1); Adding +4 per turn. She has 95 EPs invested in us (+5 relative to last turn).
Toku: He has 250 EPs invested in us (+2 relative to last turn).
Osaka: Sabotage Building: 384 EPs needed
Osaka: Sabotage Production: 261 EPs needed

Still no Hammy fleet visible.

Osaka has a Combat I Axeman.

Hatty's Scout is 1E of Osaka.
Spoiler :


Neither Hatty nor Toku is planning a war.

F4 -> Resources: Toku is trading away his second Corn to another AI or else had it pillaged by a Barb unit.

Hammy now has a second Fish Resource as he has Fish available for trade for players that he actually likes (which does not count us).

F4 -> Techs: looks the same

Toku's Archer in the SW went where we expected, on top of the GBanana.
Spoiler :
 
The war results are in. We lost 2 Cats attacking Osaka. We now own Osaka.

The first Cat wounded the top defender such that our City Raider I Cat had just over 70% odds... we lost the just over 70% odds battle, so we no longer have a City Raider I Cat.

We killed Toku's Archer in the SW with our Axeman.
Spoiler :



Do I stop play here?
 
Dhoomstriker said:
The war results are in. We lost 2 Cats attacking Osaka. We now own Osaka.

The first Cat wounded the top defender such that our City Raider I Cat had just over 70% odds... we lost the just over 70% odds battle, so we no longer have a City Raider I Cat.

We killed Toku's Archer in the SW with our Axeman.
Spoiler :



Do I stop play here?
Click to expand...
Well done, Dhoom. I thought stopping here is the plan. What do you propose?
 
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