SGOTM 16 - Fifth Element

[BLubmuz]

One of the longest mornings ever seen

 

[ZPV]

I've played to turn 253 (AD 1715) and uploaded.

Highlights:
We started a golden age, as planned.
Humbaba is dead, at the cost of three missiles.
We currently have 14 tanks, 8 bombers, 6 infantry-on-galleons, a settler and a bunch of workers in Babylonia. We'll declare on Qin sometime - for the next player to plan.
Thebes has enough overflow to build the UN in one turn.
I miscalculated the GP pop in Giza - the order will have to change but we won't get any fewer.
Edit: actually, I started starving it one turn late, and forgot that the city can grow when starving with a full food bar. That city cannot now pop a GP. Sorry about that, guys.
I'll look into getting that extra one from Gergovia instead.

 

[ZPV]

Here's an adjusted GP and culture plan, to still get 9 more great people by t265 despite my mistakes.
(In addition to the 2 we already have).

However, if we build a little bit of culture in Orleans, we'll be able to culture bomb the cities 6-3 on turn 263. That would rely on our next 8 great people consisting of 7 artists and something to form a corporation.

A safer play would be to wait until turn 265, when we'll be able to bomb the cities 6-2, leaving 3 great people spare.

The tech pace is fast enough for either eventuality.

Edit:
Remembering we might need to whip down to size to allow a UN election, t265 definitely looks best. That means we need to start+finish the UN on turn 257.
Currently we have 716 population = below the 62% threshold of 756, close enough that Hammy will put us over the top, but that will change when we start razing chinese cities.

 

[ZPV]

Blubmuz: you're up.

Here's a screenshot of China for everyone to peruse

Spoiler :

 

[unclethrill]

Great job ZPV!
Bring it home BLubmuz!

 

[Shaandore]

Well played, ZPV!

I'm gald that you could fix the GP issue.
Don't forget that we still need to found a third corporation.

This might be the time when having a few Drill 2 tanks is handy. With Drill 2 they take less damage in one sided fights. But they should only get promos after fights so we can heal and move on much faster. The new tanks from Apache and Lyons should be airlifted to the front lines every turn. They can be MP on the turn of the airlift, and catch up to the others, giving their place to an infantry.

We need to make sure to don't keep any city if it will revolt for longer than t264.

Blubmuz, I don't envy you, these will be long and micro heavy turns with very few room for mistakes ... We are rooting for you!

 

[Mastiff_of_Ar]

Nice work!

 

[BLubmuz]

Got it.

ZPV,
Great People
First off i'm reading your 2nd spreadsheet, but just to be safe, can you summarize which city will pop a GP and in what turn? Is it improvable or you have already set everything whithout any need for adjustements?

China
When are we expected to declare? What cities can be kept and what must be razed?
The galleons are positioned for a chain?

UN
when should i start them? IIRC you got the SG vote the same turn you complete it, then there's a vote every 5 turns. If we expect to win on turn 265, i can start next turn (254) so the SG vote is on turn 255. The first vote is on turn 259 or 260?

Problem is that i don't want ruin anything and the plans are clearer to you than to me.

Looking to F6 it shows 10 turns to complete FT1, but probably 9 are enough considering the overflow. So, we could win by turn 262 if we can complete the remaining objectives by then.

Why are we building research instead of culture in Orleans and Gergovia?

 

[ZPV]

GP pops:
Gergovia, cost 1600 GPP, usable t256
Verlamion, cost 1800 GPP, usable t257
Isca, cost 2000 GPP, usable t258
Tolosa, cost 2200 GPP, usable t259
Vienne, cost 2400 GPP, usable t260
Uzbek, cost 2600 GPP, usable t261
Rheims, cost 2800 GPP, usable t262
Orleans, cost 3000 GPP, usable t263

Then,
Gergovia, cost 3300 GPP, usable t265.

The cities are certainly not already set up for this - you'll need to choose the appropriate number of specialists in each city, each turn. BUFFY will tell you which city is going to pop a GP first.
There's a little flexibility in the order, but the smaller cities have to pop their GPs before the large ones, except Gergovia which should pop two.
----------------------
The UN has a 6 turn election cycle, not 5.
e.g.
We start building it on t257
We get the wonder movie, and a sec. gen. election on t258
Then there is a vote on t264, and victory announced on t265

Once it's built, our number of votes, and the number required for victory, will be displayed on the F8 screen.
----------------------
Frankly, we already have enough units to destroy all of China. We're not getting any Sushi resources from him, and only one Mining resource, so you can declare war as soon as next turn if you like.

It's up to you to get us ~85 tiles in time for victory. My preference is to raze most of the east, settling one city to house our bombers. Then, the turn before victory, we settle three or four more cities (or fewer if we want to infect them with sushi) so that their cultural borders will give us domination when they expand IBT.

There are very few cities we can keep - perhaps Chengdu as an airfield and that's it. They will really struggle to come out of revolt in time.
---------------------
You're right about the tech pace. I've got an idea to try and make a t263 victory less reliant on GP luck, but won't be able to flesh it out until tomorrow. It'll involve different city micromanagement.
------------------------
Building research in Orleans and Gergovia was a mistake. Yes, they should build culture (or better). It's only a small difference, but every little helps.
------------------------

 

[BLubmuz]

Yes, Chengdu is the only city we can keep. being small it comes out of revolt in 5 turns or so. We must raze the others, even Beijing... pity.

I think we must try to see if a 263 victory is doable.

I've seen many troops in Dur and Babyl. I think i can keep 1 infantry+ 1 musket, some outdated troops and move the rest.

If Gergovia must pop a GA before Verlamion it needs a lot of MM. A 263 victory will avoid this problem.

We must plan this carefully.

 

[ZPV]

Yes, Chengdu is the only city we can keep. being small it comes out of revolt in 5 turns or so. We must raze the others, even Beijing... pity.

I think we must try to see if a 263 victory is doable.

I've seen many troops in Dur and Babyl. I think i can keep 1 infantry+ 1 musket, some outdated troops and move the rest.

If Gergovia must pop a GA before Verlamion it needs a lot of MM. A 263 victory will avoid this problem.

We must plan this carefully.

Gergovia is before Verlamion in the pop order - if they reach 1600GPP on the same turn, Gergovia pops its GP, not Verlamion. We would just need to start starving Gergovia right away. (This is the same order they appear in, in the F1 Domestic Advisor).
------------------
Victory date pros and cons:

Spoiler t263 :

My idea for a t263 victory revolves around popping a cheap GP from Paris. Then Gergovia, etc, can go back to their old schedule, and we pop 8 high-odds artists and the Paris GP by t263.
It is unlikely to be an artist (probably as low as 50% odds), but is guaranteed to be able to found us a corporation.

The other thing we could try is a couple of turns in Mercantilism.
That will cost us between 700 and 1000 gold per turn, but gives us an extra specialist in our megacities to pop the GPs
----------------------
I don't think a t263 victory is possible, without relying too much on luck - we'll be short of culture in Gergovia, even if we rush to build a Taoist cathedral there. That means we'd need a perfect 8 out of 8 great people to pop as artists (not counting the generic GP from Paris to found the corporation), and then culture bomb 7-3.

Spoiler t265 :

This is very safe, going by the max-specialists route in Gergovia.
We have 2 great artists already, and we'll need to culture bomb 6-2 and build a corporation. (5-2 is just about possible)
We can either pop 9 likely GAs, and manage our population by hand, or pop 8 likely GAs, and use Slavery to control our population level around the election.

Spoiler t264 :

We can get the culture bomb requirement down to 6-2 by building a Taoist cathedral in Orleans.
We would only pop 8 great people, so we'd need 6GAs and a corporation-possible GP from them.
We will not be able to use Slavery to control our population level, so other methods (planning, avoiding growth and starvation if needed) will be necessary.

I don't consider t263 viable.
Which one of t264 and t265 we go for should depend on how confident you feel about managing our population to stay under the 62% needed for a UN victory.
t265 will be a lot easier in that regard, and a little safer in dealing with GP luck

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Dur-K + Babylon:
The 1-movers should stay. They can't catch up to our tanks, and help a little in reducing the chance of a city revolt.
If you want to bring the musketeers along for extra killer units, fine, but we shouldn't need too much in that regard.

 

[Shaandore]

I agree that t263 is unreliable. The GPeople we get could screw is with a high probability.

Slavery is essential. We will settle more cities, so we would need serious starvation, starting from now. That could have a negative effect on our science and gold output.

Thus I think that t265 is the best.

@Blubmuz: I attached a colored variant of ZPV's spreadsheet. I painted the numbers red where you need to change the number of Specialists hired in each city by hand. (Check the 'Sp' columns) If you do all these changes, the GPeople should pop in the order that ZPV specified (yellow background). BTW I think that this GP plan can't be improved.

 

[BLubmuz]

If you think t263 is too much tied to luck i will try a plan for t264 or 265 (which you both consider the safest, so i'll give a priority). I will try some sandbox tests before to post a plan.

edit
thanks Shaan for the useful additions on the spreadsheet. I'll keep it on my 2nd monitor while playing.

 

[BLubmuz]

It's only our population, not the one of the Vassal(s) which counts to make the Diplo option avaiable, right? Then, we must be careful to not exceed the limit in the turn after the vote or this will be null. Please correct me if i'm wrong.

About the China war, i think i'll load the galleons wih the cannons, so i must move them south to try to load them immediately. I'll declare when i can unload them near Kaifeng the same turn i declare. About the cities i'll conquer, i'll use the option "let me examine the city first" to see how many turns it will stay on revolt before to decide. I think that add the turns to the current to see if the city passes or not turn 265 it's not too difficult . The revolt is proportional to the city's size, so i think that Chengdu can be kept and maybe also Kaifeng. Almost sure we must raze the others, unless we can spare a GA to bomb (i doubt).
I just verified the save and the galleons are in a horrible position: i need to move the cannons in Sippar and load them without moves in the city, so i can't reach the walls of Kaifeng next turn. But, since it's defended by 3 LBs and a cannon i can probably try to take it without them and spare for Hangzhou. 4 frigates are enough to reduce the already poor defences, but Qin is protective, damn him.
ZPV, i expected better from you. Empty galleons positioned out of reach of our troops and LCs building research is not what a player of your level and experience does at his best. Build culture with MI is not like build culture in a "normal" culture game. It's a lot of cpt.

On another topic:
Any GPerson which is not a GP can found a Corp. GA Jewel, GS Aluminum or SE, GM CM, GE CC.
I suppose we don't care which one. Like i suppose that any city but Bibra and the 2 LCs is good for the Corp.

 

[ZPV]

Yeah, I played a couple of turns longer in one session than I should have, and didn't catch mistakes so early.

Galleons? We shouldn't really have to use them; they're just there for an emergency. There weren't enough turns to set up a proper galleon chain from the mainland, but we shouldn't declare this turn anyway because of the Chinese Frigate in the south.

Cannons have no business in this war. Enemy units will already be severely damaged by our bombers, and the cannons can't kill anything or attack amphibiously. I really can't see a use for them, except revolt prevention in Babylon. We have Frigates for bombardment, and frankly don't need it except in an amphibious assault.

edit: On the diplo vote:
Our population alone, not including vassals - correct.
We must be below the threshold at the start of the turn of the vote (i.e. after other civs get to grow, whip, etc.), and also at the start of the following turn when the results are announced.

 

[Folket]

I think our best option is to make sure we are at 40 pop below the vote requirement. That gives us a little wiggle room. Hammurabi has 80-90 votes.

Can someone count the number of squares needed for a domination victory?

 

[Folket]

Remember that you may steal squares from the mega cities once they start starving.

I guess we are done building buildings now. Let us just build wealth, research, settlers, tanks and bombers.

 

[Shaandore]

The 64% of the land tiles is 730.88 tiles. I don't know how it is rounded, so it can be either 730 or 731 tiles needed for Domination.

@Blubmuz:
I would declare 2 turns from now at latest. We can crash Qin with our Bombers and Tanks. Two tank stacks with the medics and air support will eat those lbs. (He has one Machine gun visible, the rest is medieval units + some cannons.) Waiting for cannons to declare is not worth it.

Corp: Yes, it can go anywhere except Bib and the LCs. Maybe I would avoid Thebes too if the corp competes with MI.

----------------

'In your head, in your head they are fighting,
With their tanks and their bombs,
And their bombs and their guns.
In your head, in your head, they are crying'

 

[Folket]

So we need 80 squares. At least 9 cities then.

 

[BLubmuz]

edit: On the diplo vote:
Our population alone, not including vassals - correct.
We must be below the threshold at the start of the turn of the vote (i.e. after other civs get to grow, whip, etc.), and also at the start of the following turn when the results are announced.

Another thing about Diplo:
- the population % dispayed in F8 is ours with a % of the one of our vassal or ours only?
- the 151,002,000 in F9 is of any help, it seems
- the only useful thing is the F8 Members tab which we can see once the UN are built. I must keep our pop below that threshold before the vote or the Diplo would not even appear and watch to not pass it in the IBT. This must take account that the threshold will lower when we take or raze Chinese cities, so it'd be better to be low enough starting from the Sec Gen vote. I'll see if just starving is enough or if i need to revolt to slavery and whip something, possibly useful.

then

(ZPV)The UN has a 6 turn election cycle, not 5.
e.g.
We start building it on t257
We get the wonder movie, and a sec. gen. election on t258
Then there is a vote on t264, and victory announced on t265

This is the plan, period.

About war
if you think our bombers are enough coupled with tanks and infantry i think i can even start this turn, but i think it's better wait next one, some units are out of moves and the reinforcements can't be airlifted.

PPP
- keep researching to FT1, satellites - plastics - composites - adv flight - stealth - FT1 in this order, so we can maybe use some MA
- Start building UN on turn 257
- start the chinese fireworks next turn, keep any city which finish revolt before turn 264, raze the rest, even Beijing
- i'll move to the front the 2 medic muskets and move some cannon from Bab to dur to compensate
- i must watch some chinese ship near our borders mainly to protect our nets
- build some settlers: we have 2 now and 1 ready next turn. How many? total
- can i build something in Thebes or we lose the overflow?
- is it worth spread Sushi to the new cities including Babylon and Dur?
- i'd like to build a theather and a library in Bab and Dur to help with culture and with WW. maybe even a temple.

If you give me a green (and the answers i need), i can play at any time. As usual, will report every few turns. surely i'll stop on turn 257.

So we need 80 squares. At least 9 cities then.

THis can be an answer. 7 more settlers, or 5 if the 2 small cities come out of revolt in time for the diplo vote.
We plan to settle the turn of victory, correct?