SGOTM 16 - Fifth Element

[Folket]

Warrior 2 is needed to spawnbust the northern horse right?

 

[ZPV]

PPP Comments:
Northern spawnbusting - only one warrior is needed, on the northernmost tile of our landmass.

Courthouses are not worth it yet. No city currently costs more than 4gpt in maintenance. Especially not Paris. We'll look to build them when costs get up towards 8gpt in a city. Up until that point, we'll have better things to spend our hammers on.

Paris should not build anything (except Wealth). Its next build will be a University.

Barb city: I've checked. The odds are only 75%. Three are not enough to be safe with that archer there. With CR2, the odds go up to 90%. I need to think about whether four are ok or not - if they are then we don't want to build an extra one we don't need, but I'm not sure yet. You're very unlikely to see a new defender.
Thus, Orleans will need to optimise its production differently.

Tours: I'm sure you know this, but don't whip away any of the food or cottages it's supposed to be working.

Lyons: After Hanging Gardens, I'd consider building another worker. With our expanding and growing empire, we'll still need more. After that, maybe a galley.

Workers:
One of the ones at Marseilles can divert to make the third chop for Lyons, because Orleans needs a worker, to chop and/or build roads in its southwest.
We cannot chain-irrigate until Civil Service. Once we can, I guess Paris will be able to use the farm that would bring about. We do need to earmark some forests to save them for Oxford. If there are enough left over after that, then I guess this is fine.

 

[BLubmuz]

PPP
Paris,
Continue on Wealth until we get courthouses?
Chop into courthouse? Better to wait with anything until we get bureaucracy?

Barracks!!!

Lyon,
grow in two turns. Then start work on a mine,
Hanging gardens finished in four turns.
Then build barracks? Or courthouse? Or Library?

Library - Barracks

Orleans,
6 vs 4.35 with one FS. What are the odds? do the internet have an oddsgenerator?
In 1 turn whip swordman, then build an other swordman. Start an other swordman to have units for the other barbarian city.
With 3 Swordmen I will go to Apache, Attack with one. If he is successful I will wait a turn and then attack with all three. What are the chance a new defender is spawned during that turn?
Start courthouse after 4th swordman. Perhaps with overflow from a whip? Settler?

Maybe you missed my previous post:
do NOT dare to go to take Apache with only 3 swords. If one is killed the defending archer will be an easy prey for the Celtic archer. 5 units. Not warriors, not even for MP. Spears at least, better 3 swords+ 1 axe + 1 chariot. Then, if all 3 swords are successful, we need another axe for MP sugar city. Swords are weak against axes and other swords if attacked in a city. Axes are the best possible unit, better if paired with a sord, spear or chariot. I always like to have a fast moving unit in a stack.

Rheims,
in 1 turn change from clam to mine.
in 2 turns, grow and finish library, hire 2 scientists. start on lighthouse.
We do want farms on the grassland here sooner or later right?
in 6 turns, grows, work on mine 1 turn and then whip? Courthouse next?

warrior 1, move to Paris to generate happiness
spy 3 and 2, go to hill next to Apache, spy 3 can continue to other barbarian city.

Spies can't conduct missions against Barbs, because the players can't accumulate EPs against barbs. I'm not sure they can be catched by barbs, are you ZPV?
In case, keep them outside their borders

Comments in red, where i do not comment i agree or i can't answer ATM.

Perhaps i will keep warrior 1 at Apache to have as garrison.

See above, no more warriors South of Paris. We keep the ones we already have, then we need more advanced units.

 

[BLubmuz]

On a general comment, i think we're a bit too greedy: no units because they cost, no buildings to build whealth instead. Paris can and must contribute to the military effort. Do you think we can build an army in no time when it's time to go after Brennus?

A galley is needed once we have an axe or a chariot to load on it. There're free XP there and maybe a gorgeus city (if not already settled to settle). If you forgot my post about the overseas trade routes, it's time you think to that. It will be a great contribution to our economy to settle a city or even 2 (depends from the land and if they are safe) in that island. Before Ramses or Brennus arrive there, possibly. The sooner we know the land, the sooner we can decide what to do.

Now, i see what probably the usual FE mistakes were: we were usually too fast in REX, in warring and so on and thus we found ourselves weak in the middle ages.
But i think we're too much on the opposite until now. An half way perhaps?

 

[Shaandore]

On a general comment, i think we're a bit too greedy: no units because they cost, no buildings to build whealth instead. Paris can and must contribute to the military effort. Do you think we can build an army in no time when it's time to go after Brennus?

I don't really see your point. We have an empire where the capital is a low food commerce city. Outside we have plenty of strong production cities. We CAN build an army in no time. How many turns does our 1 Orleans city take to build 5 swords? Now imagine that with Lyons, Tours, Rheims and Marseilles, so basically multiplied by 5. These will also get bigger, and they all wil have forges. Plenty of food and mines in all of these.

A galley is needed onve we have an axe or a chariot to load on it. There're free XP there and maybe a gorgeus city. If you forgot my post about an the oversea trade routes, it's time you think to that. It will be a great contribution to our economy to settle a city or even 2 (depends from the land and it they are safe) in that island. Before Ramses or Brennus arrive there, possibly. The sooner we know the land, the sooner we can decide what to do.

This one is a good idea. We really should check that island out. (Maybe with an axe or a chariot first though, to see if Humbaba will cause problems there or not)

 

[Shaandore]

My comments on the PPP:

Marseilles: when the granary is whipped, then it should build forge and barracks

Paris: wealth. I don't think that we need barracks here. Definitely no courthouse in the capital.

Lyons: after HG, I would prefer a galley and later a lighthouse. The worker that ZPV suggested could be passed to Rheims after the library is ready.

Tours: After forge and library is done, a lighthouse would be nice. (Though not first priority)

Orleans: This is a military pump city. We should keep on slowbuilding troops/wealth/workers/settlers when the swords are ready. The building we could use here is heroic epic, but we need to unlock it first.

Rheims: Worker after Library maybe?

Workers have many things to do. eg: build roads towards Apache city, hook up resources for trade (the second deer for example!) and for homeland use (horse)
build mines for marseilles.

On the swordsman number issue:

I did some calculations on the number of swordsman needed (assuming 75% odds at first fight).

There are three archers, so attacking with 3 swords is a bad idea. But milking the XP can be started, while we are sure to leave 2 archers inside, one of them unscratched. We could start milking XP, but we should be ready to take the city any time, so I suggest 5 swords.

In a one turn attack cycle with five swords, there is 1.5 percent chance that the first three swords die. Under any other circumstance, the city will be left with at most two most likely badly hit archers, a piece of cake for two healed swords (and at least one unhealthy sword).

With 4 swords, there is a 15% chance that at least two of the first three guys die, which is quite unfortunate
We will need that 5th sword anyway to be sure to get the next barb city.

 

[Shaandore]

Now, i see what probably the usual FE mistakes were: we were usually too fast in REX, in warring and so on and thus we found ourselves weak in the middle ages.
But i think we're too much on the opposite until now. An half way perhaps?

We only have 6 cities now, but we put our hands on the 2 barb cities soon (and one more spot on the east). We might have some sites on the island, and one more city on the north. That is at least 9 cities.

We will be strong in the slow middle ages with a strong production and well established economy. If we can pull of the knight war, we won't need to stop warring until the game ends. That is the single best way to make a huge empire. We will take the jungle cities just when they will be able to contribute, and the conquer money will fuel the economy in the late middle and early industrial eras. (and help the war machine itself hopefully)

All we need is a good start against Brennus with knights.

 

[ZPV]

On a general comment, i think we're a bit too greedy: no units because they cost, no buildings to build whealth instead. Paris can and must contribute to the military effort. Do you think we can build an army in no time when it's time to go after Brennus?

A galley is needed once we have an axe or a chariot to load on it. There're free XP there and maybe a gorgeus city (if not already settled to settle). If you forgot my post about the overseas trade routes, it's time you think to that. It will be a great contribution to our economy to settle a city or even 2 (depends from the land and if they are safe) in that island. Before Ramses or Brennus arrive there, possibly. The sooner we know the land, the sooner we can decide what to do.

Now, i see what probably the usual FE mistakes were: we were usually too fast in REX, in warring and so on and thus we found ourselves weak in the middle ages.
But i think we're too much on the opposite until now. An half way perhaps?

Blubmuz:
Paris cannot build units. It is not powerful enough to be a production city and a commerce city, and we need its commerce more than a little extra production.
Our production cities will build us 25 units (yes, with slavery) in 10 turns if we ask them to. That is what we settle them for.

Swords are far and away our best unit for capturing barbarian cities defended by Archers.
The barbs cannot build axemen. Barb axemen won't spawn if we spawnbust the area (and currently don't because there are enough barb units on our continent to prevent it with just the cities). If there are no barbs around we do not even need a single defender while capturing the second city.

We will not leave a solitary barb defender for a Celtic Archer to pick off. The planning for a low-unit city capture has to revolve around that.
(I.e. better to leave one healthy archer and one wounded one, and an idle swordsman, to finish off with high odds on the second turn)
I agree that three swords are too few. Are four enough to set out to capture the first of the two cities (because if so they can march without waiting for the fifth to be built - it can instead catch up for the second city)?

Spoiler Apache permutations :

4 swords vs 3 archers, individual odds 75%

Case 1 (75%): Sword 1 wins.
Then we wait a turn and take out the remaining two archers 4v2.

Case 2: (19%) Sword 1 loses, Sword 2 wins.
Then we have 2+1 v 1+1 on the second turn. Those are high odds.

Case 3: (5%) Swords 1 and 2 lose, Sword 3 wins
Then we still attack with a third Sword.
If it wins, then wait.
If both Archers are redlined (quite likely), then Brennus will kill one of them for us, and we can take out the other 2v1. Else, a reinforcement sword is needed, and we can fight 3v2 with a CR2 sword as our ace in the hole.

Case 4: (2%) Swords 1, 2 and 3 lose.
Then, kill off one of the three wounded archers.
If Brennus has enough courage to attack and kill the second one, we get the first shot at the final defender. If not, we'll have to bring reinforcements.

-----------------
Risks/rewards, compared to a 5-unit stack:
rewards: capturing the first barb city a turn or two earlier by not having to wait for a fifth sword before our stack marches.
risks: In Case 3, we don't get the reward if Brennus doesn't play nice. This captures the city in the same timeframe as a 5-sword stack.
In Case 4, we need a sixth sword if Brennus doesn't kill a wounded archer for us.

I'll let someone else decide if those are worth it.

Whatever happens with the barb cities, we'll have some units conveniently positioned to be ferried over to the barb island to have a look.

On the greediness comment: I really don't know what to say to this. Building stuff we don't need is a waste. Hammers now are more valuable than hammers later, so if we're not going to use something right away, we should delay it in favour of something with a more immediate impact. If that's wealth because there's nothing better, so be it.
It's like the old case of never building a granary right before a worker. It's almost always better to do it the other way around because the granary sits unused for a number of turns, whereas the worker first could have built some tile improvements.

REX vs tech? I'm afraid there's no middle ground. You have to do one very well and use the benefits to make up for the shortfall in the other.

 

[Folket]

I updated the PPP.

Shaandore, worker in Rheims is going to be painfully slow with two scientists hired.

I could move out with two swordmen and take the 75% chance in first battle. If we win that battle we will have two turns to heal before our 3rd swordman comes. If we loose we will have a slightly stronger defender. But there are a risk/reward dynamic here. (the second swordman is just there to protect against a counter attack.

 

[BLubmuz]

Can we build a chariot after sword 3? It will arrive sooner than a sword and it will be useful to explore the island later.

Also, if he gains enough XP to be promoted M1, it can be our first GG unit.

 

[Shaandore]

I think a good middle ground would be 4 swords and a chariot. They would get the job done, and we could accumulate XP on the chariot to make a nice medic. (and we could bring the chariot on the island to explore)

 

[BLubmuz]

I think a good middle ground would be 4 swords and a chariot. They would get the job done, and we could accumulate XP on the chariot to make a nice medic. (and we could bring the chariot on the island to explore)

I claim the copyright on the above

 

[Shaandore]

@Blub: fine

@Folket: green light from me on the PPP, but please add the 4th sword and the chariot if you agree. And don't forget that we will have a population boost in 4 turns! Try to improve tiles around Paris so it will have enough cottages around (It is enough when all citizens work on a food tile (corn + farmed FP) or cottage). This is the most importnat thing (other than chopping into HG) to do for the workers. I also value the road to the barb cities high.

I think that we should march with 4 swords, the chariot can catch up in no time. Try to scout the area in a way to be able to see if Brennus brought a stack to the barb cities. In that case, we need to attack fast.

 

[Folket]

I will play tomorrow morning unless someone says no.

Is one green light?

 

[Folket]

I would prefer to take the 75% chance of victory on first unit. i.e. Go out with two swordman and attack once. Then wait for 3rd swordman and chariot.

 

[BLubmuz]

I would prefer to take the 75% chance of victory on first unit. i.e. Go out with two swordman and attack once. Then wait for 3rd swordman and chariot.

You are the field commander.
I already made my comments to your plan, go ahead if you follow them.

BTW i need to update page 1, can be useful.

 

[BLubmuz]

No, wait! In case the first sword wins, do not attack with the second. I already seen an AI archer win against a barb archer. I know it's a ton of luck (for the AI), but better be safe and wait for reinforcements. I hope you get the point.

 

[Folket]

That is what I'm saying. Once I kill one archer I wait for me to have 4 units so killing the other two is safe.

 

[Folket]

T116
Lost hanging gardens.

Do we want to talk about this?

 

[Shaandore]

No problem, we can live with it. It's not your fault. Rammy built it, or someone else?

We need to postpone running those scientists in Rheims so we can get that engineer out first. Which means you can build the worker in Lyons.

How much money did we obtain? I imagine it's quite a nice amount. Let's be happy about it, it may even be better than the HG itself We can run 100% research for a while hopefully.

Go ahead and play until your PPP lasts.