SGOTM 17 - The Shawshank Redemption

[Jastrow]

OK, I am sure I will regret this, but can someone explain to me in a COUPLE of SHORT sentences....

Why the heck are we considering police state (at the cost of a turn of anarchy) to pump out a dozen units to take out a single, crippled, AI??

That is the entirety of my point... We do not need police state at all... We need to be in a research civic from the start... We need to be working on a way to get to the isolated AI... That is our gating time to victory... The war against MM, or any other accessible AI can start now, or in 30 turns, and will still easily beat our gating time to whatever tech we need to get to the isolated civ.

And while we are at it, can someone explain to me what is your picture of this scenario to explain why other than us and MM, not a single civ has even made trade network contact with one neighbor yet??

 

[Dhoomstriker]

We should build enough units to make Police State worthwhile. Throw enough units at an AI and the AI will die, no matter what the tech level. You just have to make sure that "enough" fits the relative tech levels of the attackers and defenders.

 

[Jastrow]

Sigh....

Lemmings....

Sigh...

So again, how do you envision this scenario... All civs are isolated... This is clearly a case of the map maker making them progresively harder to get to... First, we need a cultur bridge... Then we likely need to get through a tough barb city... By the end we will need nukes of paratroopers...

IF your reading of the other graphs is right, then it just means that others have not figured this out... You can be a lemming and follow them, or make the right decision.

 

[Mitchum]

I'm fine going with Alphabet next. We do need IW ASAP, so it would be awesome if we could get IW before we DoW Mansa, but not 100% required.

Why the heck are we considering police state (at the cost of a turn of anarchy) to pump out a dozen units to take out a single, crippled, AI??

That is the entirety of my point... We do not need police state at all... We need to be in a research civic from the start... We need to be working on a way to get to the isolated AI... That is our gating time to victory... The war against MM, or any other accessible AI can start now, or in 30 turns, and will still easily beat our gating time to whatever tech we need to get to the isolated civ.

I tend to agree that in certain stages, Representation is more important than Police State. However, we do need about a dozen Horse Archers in short order. This means that we're going to be 2-pop whipping in 6 cities or so which implies that we won't have the luxury of hiring scientists in the short term. So, a test game should show us whether revolting to PS next turn (after we've completed the 'Mids) is better or worse than just building them without it. So, either we'll be revolting to PS or we'll be revolting to Representation after we've cranked out our HA army.

If we do it properly, we should have a dozen or so HAs in 4 to 6 turns and be ready to DoW in 6 to 8 turns... or earlier if we have good worker stealing options. I could have stolen a worker with our chariot, but Mansa had a skirmisher and chariot right by GP Farm and it didn't seem worth the risk.

And while we are at it, can someone explain to me what is your picture of this scenario to explain why other than us and MM, not a single civ has even made trade network contact with one neighbor yet??

How can you tell that every other Civ is isolated... at least I'm assuming that's what you mean.

Lastly, who's up next? It should be chopster but if he can't play, then Dhoom then Jastrow.

 

[Jastrow]

I'm fine going with Alphabet next. We do need IW ASAP, so it would be awesome if we could get IW before we DoW Mansa, but not 100% required.

And why do we need to declare MM now again?? Why not wait until we get everything we can in a trade??? We have PLENTY of time, on the way to late game techs to take him out.

I tend to agree that in certain stages, Representation is more important than Police State.

where certain = almost all... Certainly all for the next long while in this game.

However, we do need about a dozen Horse Archers in short order.

Why?? So that we can kill the only AI who can give us some techs, and as such intentionally slow down our finish date... Then by all means, lets compound it by hurting our own research with PS as well!

This means that we're going to be 2-pop whipping in 6 cities or so which implies that we won't have the luxury of hiring scientists in the short term.

Yes, because we are in such a HUGE hurry to kill of MM... Again, I ask WHY????

So, a test game should show us whether revolting to PS next turn (after we've completed the 'Mids) is better or worse than just building them without it.

How do you need a test game... It is obviously worse unless you make the assumption that this is a game where we do NOT need to go deep in the tree... I again ask, what is your image of such a game, because I just cannot imagine it.

So, either we'll be revolting to PS or we'll be revolting to Representation after we've cranked out our HA army.

Or we do something sensible, like slow build a few HA while in representation and trading with MM, take him out in due time, while in parallele teching to and past education, and thus aim to acheive our gating goal, instead of speeding up pointlessly some short sighted attack on MM.

If we do it properly, we should have a dozen or so HAs in 4 to 6 turns and be ready to DoW in 6 to 8 turns...

I see nothing proper about that!

How can you tell that every other Civ is isolated... at least I'm assuming that's what you mean.

As I said, not a single has connected to anyone else trade network. This despite being around turn 80 on an advanced start, with trading on rivers and coast already enabled, and the AI starting with extra workers... Unless you have some other wacky explanation, I think it is pretty clear what the map maker did.

Lastly, who's up next? It should be chopster but if he can't play, then Dhoom then Jastrow.

Sorry... I am so firmly against the current plan than I am simply not a reasonble choice to execute it... I would constantly be trying to figure out which option I am supposed to pick between a selection that I all think are God awful.

 

[Mitchum]

@ Jastrow I'm still not sure HOW you know that every other AI is isolated. I'm assuming that you can tell from the demo data but can you explain it to me? If this is the case, that points to an Astro beeline, not a Education beeline.

I can think of a few reasons why to take out Mansa:

1. His cities and land will be much more useful in our hands than his. He's been gimped this game due to our worker stealing and I don't expect him to be useful beyond getting IW, CoL and possibly Alpha and Monarchy.

2. The sooner we get access to the ocean tiles to the NW and figure out what's going on with that barb city and beyond the sooner we can figure out what to tech next.

3. We don't plan to kill him off completely until after we've gotten a few techs from him. If we have to leave him with 1 city, so be it. If he gets Alpha before we DoW, we can get his techs and then take him out entirely.

4. Once we get IW, we're going to need a ton of workers. I expect that Mansa is good for another 4 to 6 workers. I'd much rather take them than self build them.

5. He could be on the path to Feudalism. The window of using HAs very effectively is closing soon. We researched HBR so we may as well leverage it. If we don't leverage it at all, we've just wasted the last 10 turns of research... Wasting research by itself isn't reason to attack (i.e. sunk cost fallacy), but it has opened a small window that we can use now.

So, we have two options. We can turtle up, revolt to Representation, build infra (libraries, chs, etc.), trade with Mansa and explore the map. Or we can take out Mansa first and then either turtle or continue on with our warring depending on what the map reveals.

The reason why I prefer HA attack now is because everything is in our favor to do it now. Plus, if we trade techs before the war or leave MM with one city and then do it, we'll get everything we'll likely get in the short term anyway and his cities would be nice in our hands...

Note that taking out Mansa during this window does not prevent us from teching deep into the tech tree. If anything, I think it helps. Land = power and the more land we have, the faster we tech.

 

[Jastrow]

@ Jastrow I'm still not sure HOW you know that every other AI is isolated. I'm assuming that you can tell from the demo data but can you explain it to me? If this is the case, that points to an Astro beeline, not a Education beeline.

Yes, from the demo screen... Look at the import-exports... I see no other explanations for all the opponents (other than MM) to be isolated.

It might point to astro... The reason I dont beleive that is simply that I do not think there is enough water on the map (we calculated how many water tiles there were at the begining and it was very low) to seperate all the AI like this... I therefore expect a mountain grid for the seperation.

I can think of a few reasons why to take out Mansa:

So can I... I am just against rushing to do it, and slowing our research in the process. Also, I would rather wait until we get full trade value for him.

1. His cities and land will be much more useful in our hands than his. He's been gimped this game due to our worker stealing and I don't expect him to be useful beyond getting IW, CoL and possibly Alpha and Monarchy.

I agree completly... I am 100% for taking him out as soon as we get those 4 techs out of him. We can do that by slow building a small attack force now, in parallel to teching up the tree.

2. The sooner we get access to the ocean tiles to the NW and figure out what's going on with that barb city and beyond the sooner we can figure out what to tech next.

That is access to the next AI... That and SIlver bridge show us AI #2 and #3... Again, being a bit early to those will not speed us up to AI #7 if we need nukes or paratroupers to get to him.

3. We don't plan to kill him off completely until after we've gotten a few techs from him. If we have to leave him with 1 city, so be it. If he gets Alpha before we DoW, we can get his techs and then take him out entirely.

Again, I am not against that... I am against slowing our research to do it, since we dont gain much over taking him over 30 turns later.

4. Once we get IW, we're going to need a ton of workers. I expect that Mansa is good for another 4 to 6 workers. I'd much rather take them than self build them.

Those workers are also doing decent work while he controled them in the turns before the war... Again, not a reason to rush.

5. He could be on the path to Feudalism. The window of using HAs very effectively is closing soon. We researched HBR so we may as well leverage it. If we don't leverage it at all, we've just wasted the last 10 turns of research... Wasting research by itself isn't reason to attack (i.e. sunk cost fallacy), but it has opened a small window that we can use now.

THat is the only argument I can see for attacking now... Again, I am not opposed to it for this purpose... I am just against using this as an excuse to slow our ultimate gating techs.

So, we have two options. We can turtle up, revolt to Representation, build infra (libraries, chs, etc.), trade with Mansa and explore the map. Or we can take out Mansa first and then either turtle or continue on with our warring depending on what the map reveals.

Or option 3... We slowly take MM out while teching.

The reason why I prefer HA attack now is because everything is in our favor to do it now. Plus, if we trade techs before the war or leave MM with one city and then do it, we'll get everything we'll likely get in the short term anyway and his cities would be nice in our hands...

Fine... and how is that compatible with being is PS for the long term (something which appears to have already been decided on, and which I think is a beyond horrible decision.)

Note that taking out Mansa during this window does not prevent us from teching deep into the tech tree. If anything, I think it helps. Land = power and the more land we have, the faster we tech.

Again, it is not the notion of taking MM out which I am so opposed to... It is the notion of using PS to do it!

 

[Mitchum]

Regarding PS, any time we're massively building up troops for an attack, PS is a viable option. If we only think we'll need 12 HAs and we can do it by two-popping in 6 cities, then PS likely does not make sense as you said. The test game would show whether PS makes sense at all as we could compare where we are with PS vs. without it. When we're building stacks of more expensive units like cuirs, trebs, cavalry, etc, Police State will really shine and should definitely be considered at that time. I don't think anyone is proposing that we stay in PS for the long term. I can see us switching between Representation and PS a couple of times this game. PS reduces war weariness as well so it is a decent war-time civic both during buildup and during the war.

No matter what we do, I don't think Representation makes sense right now since we'll likely be whipping away excess pops in most cities. So in my mind it's either PS or nothing for the next several turns.

I don't think slow building HAs is effective as the window could close quickly. I'd rather have -12 pops and 12 HAs in 4 turns turns than those same 12 HAs in 10 to 15 turns which "might" be too late.

I think we're in violent agreement on taking out Mansa. I guess it's just a matter of how quickly we do it. Here is my vote without having run any tests:

1. Research Alphabet
2. Whip out a dozen or so HAs in short order (most likely without PS since I don't think we'll make up for the turn of anarchy if we agree that we only need 12 HAs).
3. DoW on Mansa as soon as we have our stack ready or a big enough stack to capture his city on T0 of the war and a couple of worker steal opportunities.

We should check the espionage screen to see if it's likely that Mansa is building a settler. I can't imagine that he'd be stuck at 3 cities for much longer.

 

[Mitchum]

I wonder if KCD used barb cities and culture to keep the AI isolated from each other instead of or in addition to ocean squares and peaks. My guess is that the barb city is the only thing keeping Mansa from meeting his neighbor. But we won't know until we get a city planted up there and check it out. Regardless of how deep in the tech tree we have to go, the sooner we meet more AI and get a lay of the land, the sooner we'll win. Plus, meeting more AI give more trading options and more foreign trade routes.

Does the imports-exports only track resource trades or does it also track foreign trade routes? I haven't spent any time really studying those values before. I'll look into this when I'm on my Civ computer tomorrow unless someone else knows or can verify it with a test game.

 

[Jastrow]

Regarding PS, any time we're massively building up troops for an attack, PS is a viable option. If we only think we'll need 12 HAs and we can do it by two-popping in 6 cities, then PS likely does not make sense as you said. The test game would show whether PS makes sense at all as we could compare where we are with PS vs. without it. When we're building stacks of more expensive units like cuirs, trebs, cavalry, etc, Police State will really shine and should definitely be considered at that time. I don't think anyone is proposing that we stay in PS for the long term. I can see us switching between Representation and PS a couple of times this game. PS reduces war weariness as well so it is a decent war-time civic both during buildup and during the war.

Dhoom is certainly proposing it... Indeed, he basically assumes the only question is when we revolt into it...

Yes, it will be usefull once we are ready to start the main war... That is however NOT now.

No matter what we do, I don't think Representation makes sense right now since we'll likely be whipping away excess pops in most cities. So in my mind it's either PS or nothing for the next several turns.

With that logic, then we would certainly not change at all without a GA... Note that Dhoom was proposing a revolt to PS at the cost of Anarchy. Having said that, WHY are we whipping again? If it is to get HA faster for a war that is not a rush, I am against that as well.

I don't think slow building HAs is effective as the window could close quickly. I'd rather have -12 pops and 12 HAs in 4 turns turns than those same 12 HAs in 10 to 15 turns which "might" be too late.

Then, in my opinion, so be it... We will take him out with cats and HA, which we can do anytime.

1. Research Alphabet

I vote for directly towards oxford.

2. Whip out a dozen or so HAs in short order (most likely without PS since I don't think we'll make up for the turn of anarchy if we agree that we only need 12 HAs).

Completly against... Wait for cats if slow building is not good enough.

3. DoW on Mansa as soon as we have our stack ready or a big enough stack to capture his city on T0 of the war and a couple of worker steal opportunities.

Fine, but not at the cost of slowing research.

We should check the espionage screen to see if it's likely that Mansa is building a settler. I can't imagine that he'd be stuck at 3 cities for much longer.

Whatever...

I still dont comprehend what you guys are imagining for scenario, consistant with the evidence, and which justifies anything other than a plan involved a deep teching line.

 

[Jastrow]

I wonder if KCD used barb cities and culture to keep the AI isolated from each other instead of or in addition to ocean squares and peaks. My guess is that the barb city is the only thing keeping Mansa from meeting his neighbor. But we won't know until we get a city planted up there and check it out.

I agree with that guess... But it would not be a very cleverly designed game if that is what he did at each stage. I envision the obstacles getting more and more challenging... The few ocean squares to the south, and the barb block to the west at stage one... Then something progressively bigger, ultimatly leading to a completly clocked off region (mountains, for example.)

Regardless of how deep in the tech tree we have to go, the sooner we meet more AI and get a lay of the land, the sooner we'll win.

I completly disagree (apart from trading oppertunities...) OUr gating is going to be the final tech we need. Everything else we will have enough time for.

Plus, meeting more AI give more trading options and more foreign trade routes.

Very little trading options... Other AI have not met anoyone, and once they meet us, they will think everything is a monopoly tech. Other than MM, which we already have, no-one will trade anything.

The trade routes will be nice of course, but that is the only real benifit of meeting other AI earlier.

Does the imports-exports only track resource trades or does it also track foreign trade routes?

It trackes only trade routes.

I haven't spent any time really studying those values before. I'll look into this when I'm on my Civ computer tomorrow unless someone else knows or can verify it with a test game.

http://www.civfanatics.com/civ4/strategy/demographics.php

 

[chopster]

More bad news from me regarding activity - I now have another trip within my trip this week, so I am flying Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Tuesday and then get home Thursday, my son has an operation Friday - so I'm out for at least the next two weeks guys.

 

[Mitchum]

Foreign TRs, especially if they are intercontinental, would be a huge boost for our research, especially now that we have the GLH. So, meeting new AI should be a high priority especially if we need to focus on research.

Regarding Mansa, it really comes down to timing as we've both agreed. I feel that getting IW, Alpha and/or CoL from him is about all he's good for. Then I want his cities in our hands and access to his coast. The sooner we get to that point the better in my opinion.

Out of curiosity, what is the benefit of slow building HAs and taking Mansa out at a leisurely pace. In my experience, the quicker you do things the better. If we do decide to turtle after taking out Mansa, wouldn't it be better to do it with HAs alone than to have to also tech Construction and then do it? If it's true that we should be beelining Education, Construction is yet another side quest that will delay that goal. At least now, we have HAs and could take him out quickly without having to waste any more beakers on military techs.

Note that I'm not proposing an Education beeline, I'm just saying that if that turns out to be the ideal approach, then taking out Mansa sooner and then focusing on research instead of a slow military buildup would be better.

Is it the loss of 2 pops in 6ish cities that worries you? Because the sooner we do this, the sooner our cities can grow, build infra/wealth and hire scientists.

Or is it the worry that we'll be taking out Mansa before we've been able to trade techs with him that is causing you to want to slow down?

 

[Jastrow]

Foreign TRs, especially if they are intercontinental, would be a huge boost for our research, especially now that we have the GLH. So, meeting new AI should be a high priority especially if we need to focus on research.

Intercontinental seem unlikely given the mountain range near silver bridge, and realistically, meeting another AI or two will therefore give us something like +10 gpt. Yes, that is nice, but nothing compared to the value of representation and oxford.

Regarding Mansa, it really comes down to timing as we've both agreed. I feel that getting IW, Alpha and/or CoL from him is about all he's good for. Then I want his cities in our hands and access to his coast. The sooner we get to that point the better in my opinion.

Sure, I am not disagree with any of that.

Out of curiosity, what is the benefit of slow building HAs and taking Mansa out at a leisurely pace. In my experience, the quicker you do things the better.

The advantage is that we run representative specialist instead of whipping away those population point. Your 12+ whiped population for some 10 turns or so... 12*6 = 72 beakers per turn, plus some of those come with library or other bonuses... nearly 100 bpt is a big deal towards research at this time... Plus, the extra delay in infrastructure... That is the cost.

If we do decide to turtle after taking out Mansa, wouldn't it be better to do it with HAs alone than to have to also tech Construction and then do it? If it's true that we should be beelining Education, Construction is yet another side quest that will delay that goal. At least now, we have HAs and could take him out quickly without having to waste any more beakers on military techs.

I routinely take out AI's with weapons like HA or weaker and cats, post education.

Note that I'm not proposing an Education beeline, I'm just saying that if that turns out to be the ideal approach, then taking out Mansa sooner and then focusing on research instead of a slow military buildup would be better.

I disagree... We will need the population for scientist, and also to whip universities afterwards.

Is it the loss of 2 pops in 6ish cities that worries you? Because the sooner we do this, the sooner our cities can grow, build infra/wealth and hire scientists.

Not whipping them at all is much faster still...

Or is it the worry that we'll be taking out Mansa before we've been able to trade techs with him that is causing you to want to slow down?

Both, plus the nonesense of falling in love with PS (Which Dhoom already has).

 

[Mitchum]

It's going to be a long time before we need pops to whip Universities. Plus, whipping 2 pops in 5 or 6 cities won't delay the time we could hire scientists by 10 turns. Most of our cities would be able to quickly grow back to 4 pops and hire 2 scientists and still have enough food to continue to grow, especially once we have IW and an army of workers to improve all of the junglified resources.

In the last SGOTM, we had to tech all the way to FT1. PD didn't stop at 10 to 12 cities, tech to Education, and then start the war machine. They went on a rampage ASAP, captured a ton of cities earlier than anyone else and used those extra cities to power through the tech tree (and several more AI).

Here are a few reasons why DoWing on Mansa is likely the fastest way to Eduction should we choose to do so:

1. We'll get quite a bit of city capture gold which will allow us to run the science slider at 100% sooner.

2. Once we own his cities, we can use them to hire additional scientists. The sooner we own the cities, the sooner they work for us.

3. His workers will help us improve our cities. Sure, Mansa can use them to build a bunch of useless cottages and chop forests into things that we don't want him to. Some of the stuff he does would be useful but we could make much better use of them in our core cities to get silver, gems and tons of food online so that we can grow our cities to higher pops (higher happy cap) more quickly (extra food) and hire even more scientists EDIT: while working the gems and silver tiles sooner depending on when we get IW.

4. Whether we get intercontinental or just foreign TRs to the NW of Mansa, that extra commerce will improve our economy and speed things up a bit.

5. Slow building units will require more of them as we give Mansa more and more time to mature, tech to Feudalism and build more units. So, we'll be spending more hammers over a longer period of time as opposed to just going for it, cranking out a nice stack of HAs in 3 to 5 turns, and going to town on him. The sooner we have our army, the sooner we can get back to teching... or more warring depending on what the culture bridge shows us.

So, while whipping HAs in several cities will have a short-term impact on our tech rate, it won't take long for us to leverage the earlier city capture gold and extra cities, land and workers to come out ahead. My guess is that by not whipping and instead slow building HAs (which also delays libraries and Wealth builds in several cities by the way), we may pull ahead by 4 to 6 turns of research (at 0%, not 100%). But with sooner city capture gold, sooner units so we can focus on infra instead of slow building HAs, and sooner Mansa cities, the war path will actually pull ahead of the turtle approach in well less than 20 turns...

 

[Jastrow]

It's going to be a long time before we need pops to whip Universities. Plus, whipping 2 pops in 5 or 6 cities won't delay the time we could hire scientists by 10 turns. Most of our cities would be able to quickly grow back to 4 pops and hire 2 scientists and still have enough food to continue to grow, especially once we have IW and an army of workers to improve all of the junglified resources.

Yes, but being in PS will seriously slow down research.

In the last SGOTM, we had to tech all the way to FT1. PD didn't stop at 10 to 12 cities, tech to Education, and then start the war machine. They went on a rampage ASAP, captured a ton of cities earlier than anyone else and used those extra cities to power through the tech tree (and several more AI).

Yes, because there were good cities available to capture efficiently. That is not the situation here.... Any cities we capture after MM are currently of unknown quality, and are likely far away in terms of maintenance... Plus, at least in the W, we apparently need to fight through barb guards to even get to them. Again, that will not be an efficient capture.

Here are a few reasons why DoWing on Mansa is likely the fastest way to Eduction should we choose to do so:

Again, I am not against that... I am against using PS to do it.

1. We'll get quite a bit of city capture gold which will allow us to run the science slider at 100% sooner.

City capture of 3 cities is likely to be about 200gc.... The 12 units we need to have outside are borders and in existance during about the 5 turns of war will cost how much? about 75 gc total? The cities will initially roughly pay for themselves... So yes, we get something like 100-150 gc towards reseasrch... That is a small fraction of the science we are investing.

2. Once we own his cities, we can use them to hire additional scientists. The sooner we own the cities, the sooner they work for us.

Likely without a library or any other multiplier... Yes, they will help some, but again, comapred to the cost, not all that much.

3. His workers will help us improve our cities. Sure, Mansa can use them to build a bunch of useless cottages and chop forests into things that we don't want him to. Some of the stuff he does would be useful but we could make much better use of them in our core cities to get silver, gems and tons of food online so that we can grow our cities to higher pops (higher happy cap) more quickly (extra food) and hire even more scientists EDIT: while working the gems and silver tiles sooner depending on when we get IW.

I dont think they are much more efficient for us to own then him until after IW... At that point I agree that I want the workers myself.

4. Whether we get intercontinental or just foreign TRs to the NW of Mansa, that extra commerce will improve our economy and speed things up a bit.

All I have seen to the NW so far are barb cities... I am not expecting any TR there until we can take that barb city down, which I expect to be a significant investement beyond a dozen HA.

5. Slow building units will require more of them as we give Mansa more and more time to mature, tech to Feudalism and build more units. So, we'll be spending more hammers over a longer period of time as opposed to just going for it, cranking out a nice stack of HAs in 3 to 5 turns, and going to town on him. The sooner we have our army, the sooner we can get back to teching... or more warring depending on what the culture bridge shows us.

To some extent, but I dont expect much resistance for MM at any time.

So, while whipping HAs in several cities will have a short-term impact on our tech rate, it won't take long for us to leverage the earlier city capture gold and extra cities, land and workers to come out ahead. My guess is that by not whipping and instead slow building HAs (which also delays libraries and Wealth builds in several cities by the way), we may pull ahead by 4 to 6 turns of research (at 0%, not 100%). But with sooner city capture gold, sooner units so we can focus on infra instead of slow building HAs, and sooner Mansa cities, the war path will actually pull ahead of the turtle approach in well less than 20 turns...

I dont beleive that for a second.... I absolutly am convinced that Oxford comes in easlier without the whipping, especially if the whipping is coupling with PS.

 

[Mitchum]

Yes, but being in PS will seriously slow down research.

To me, PS and Representation are tools. Until we've agreed on our higher-level strategy, I think it's better to leave this decision for later. For example, if we agree that we should DoW on Mansa soonish, then we can compare with and without PS and determine whether the hammers gained are worth the turn of anarchy. I'm not sold on PS yet if we're just building up for Mansa.

Yes, because there were good cities available to capture efficiently. That is not the situation here.... Any cities we capture after MM are currently of unknown quality, and are likely far away in terms of maintenance... Plus, at least in the W, we apparently need to fight through barb guards to even get to them. Again, that will not be an efficient capture.

Agreed. But we know that Mansa's cities are of high quality. I'm not proposing that we go gang busters and take over the world with HAs. One step at a time. We know that Mansa's cities are good and the sooner we get them the better.

City capture of 3 cities is likely to be about 200gc.... The 12 units we need to have outside are borders and in existance during about the 5 turns of war will cost how much? about 75 gc total? The cities will initially roughly pay for themselves... So yes, we get something like 100-150 gc towards reseasrch... That is a small fraction of the science we are investing.

I'd be willing to bet that slow building a stack of HAs will be a bigger drain on our economy than just getting them built and into action ASAP. If we slowly build them, we'll likely need more than 12 HAs, possibly augmented by catapults. Those units will sit around collecting dust, becoming more obsolete and costing unit maintenance with no immediate value. If we're going to do it, we do it fast, take the unit cost hit, get the cities and workers and be done with it.

Likely without a library or any other multiplier... Yes, they will help some, but again, comapred to the cost, not all that much.

If we determine after exploring the culture bridge that it's time to research, these new cities could have libraries 3-popped and be up and running 2 turns after they come out of revolt.

All I have seen to the NW so far are barb cities... I am not expecting any TR there until we can take that barb city down, which I expect to be a significant investement beyond a dozen HA.

Didn't we determine that the strongest unit on the board had 6 strength on T0? If there are a huge stack of LB in the barb city, then we may need more than HAs. But our left over vetran HAs might be enough. We won't know until we get a galley over there and find out. We may also be able to land units there and just walk past the barbs to the other side. Again, until we check it out we won't know.

To some extent, but I dont expect much resistance for MM at any time.

We have a unit that can own skirmishers right now. Now is the best opportunity we'll have to take on Mansa with minimal units for quite some time. We could wait and take him out with tanks at the end or elepults in 20 turns or cuirs in 75 turns, but I think the sooner we own his cities the better.

I dont beleive that for a second.... I absolutly am convinced that Oxford comes in easlier without the whipping, especially if the whipping is coupling with PS.

I'm of the opinion that if you can afford to expand, you should.. and as quickly as possible. That involves either REX or war. We can't really REX but we can war.


By the way, does it make any sense to send our settler with the exploring galley? Having another city on another landmass, if there is one south of the peaks that we can reach, would be huge for the +2 TRs in every city plus giving us a toe hold on another continent. This would be a bigger benefit than settling double bananas pre IW.

 

[Mitchum]

One more point regarding Oxford. In this game, we're not going to experience any Bureau bonus + Oxford + academy goodness like in many games unless we plan to move our capital. Prague is probably the best bet for Oxford but it has so little production that it's going to take a long time to build it unless we do several whipping cycles to complete it.

So, as compelling as Oxford can be, especially in games where you "know" you'll have to go deep (like last SGOTM or a Space Colony game), I'm not sure that beelining Education is necessarily a super strong play in this game because we don't know how deep we'll have to go and we don't have a super compelling place to put it.

 

[Mitchum]

@ Dhoom

I see that you're online. When could you pick up a turnset? The last three turnsets have gone me, Jastrow, me. You had a long one prior to that but with chopster out, you're up...

 

[Dhoomstriker]

I can probably pick up a turnset in a few days from now, with the earliest that I could play probably being Thursday.

12 Horse Archers will not be enough Horse Archers.

Djenne with 2 defenders (@Mitchum, do you remember what that City had for City Defenders and how long ago?) would require 6 to 7 Horse Archers against 2 defenders to be safe, with any extra Horse Archers that don't die being used to scoop up loose Workers nearby. For me, 7 would be ideal.

I would plan to have 12 to 15 Horse Archers for Timbuktu to make sure that we capture the City smoothly, even if Mansa has got 4 Skirms there due to preparing to build a Settler Party. For me, 14 or more would be ideal.

It would also be nice to have 1 Horse Archer to "keep an eye" on Mansa's Skirm + Chariot combo, to avoid us losing a City.

So, 22 Horse Archers is my targeted goal. I certainly do not want the next player to end up falling short of winning the war because we tried to be too lean, which is actually very far from being efficient.

Anyone who wants to World Build in 12 Horse Archers and show me the magic of how to capture Djenne and Timbuktu 8 out of 10 tries is welcome to amaze me.

But, I believe that going in with sufficient force beats taking a risk of falling short, as you end up losing more units overall if you fall short of taking a targeted City.

Try again with 22 Horse Archers and show me more than 1 out of 10 tries where we fail to capture both Cities.

If we're going to allow Mansa to hold onto Timbuktu for a while in hopes of him building a Settler and expanding, while taking 2 Skirms with him as part of his Settler Party, then we can attack with less units and just take Djenne and Mansa's Gems City, then hide our Horse Archers until another City of Mansa's gets built and then rush in again with our remaining forces plus some newly-built Horse Archers. But, if we want Timbuktu in the initial assault, let's plan for 22 Horse Archers.


Even with just 12 Horse Archers, Police State is then worth a bit less than 150 Hammers... far more than Math was projected to be worth when we decided to tech it.



Before we go getting all panicky about having so many units costing us a bundle, recall that by owning Mansa's 2 large Cities, 3 Horse Archers will come free in terms of future Unit Cost values. Plan for several of those Horse Archers to die. The rest will actually cost less than we will gain in Commerce from Timbuktu's Riverside Hamlets and Villages.