I really really like having as much commerce as possible in my capital, especially given that we have hammer tiles set up already, so desert river spot is pretty appetizing. however i also really want to see the rest of the land beyond the hills and i'm not afraid to settle on turn 2. after all, complete kills are required for a reason, right? so my vote is for going up on the plains hill and scoping the territory. if it's really nice we can settle there and if not we can head elsewhere and settle next turn.
also it looks to me like bronzeworking isn't a huge priority atm. there isn't a whole lot of food (wheat plus floods) for whipping, the trees are outside likely cap BFCs, and we have nice hammer tiles set up already. looking over the hills might change things but we might want to head first for writing to get beakers+diplo, then mining+bronzeworking. there is fat bastard to worry about, but he's a ways away and i don't think the AI knows where our settler is so maybe we have some time there? i don't know how much the ai cheats at knowing where your units are, if at all.