We don't have Mining yet which means settling on the plains hill becomes somewhat more preferable. We won't gain the happiness from the Gold until we discover it, I believe.
Settling on the desert river(boo) would regain the tile as useable and give us another flood plain(at least).
Considering the marble is already quarried, which takes more worker turns than a mine(IIRC), in addition to losing guaranteed floodplains in exchange for fog, I'm of the opinion that settling on it is not worthwhile. On second look, the tilebleed seems to be grassland, floodplain, floodplain, south->north. Hmm.
We don't know what's beyond the flood plain delta besides what the tilebleed shows, which appears to be at least two more floodplains, including one 1SE of the Gold which would be part of the capital with either the desert river or plains hill settle.
My vote is on the desert river.
that's a really good point about mining and worker turns... what is your opinion about our initial build order then? do you think we should get TGW or do some kind of granary->worker @ size 2 deal?
i think i'm sold that settling on the marble isn't worth it, but I still couldnt decide between the plains hill and the desert river so i had to sperg out here:
desert river, working gold at size 2, marble at size 3
prod at size 1: (1+1)*1.5*5 = 3*5 = 15
prod at size 2: (1+1+3)*1.5*7 = 7*7 = 49
prod at size 3: (1+1+3+4)*1.5*7 = 13 * 7 = 91
@ turn 19: great wall + 5 overflow
@ turn 19: 163 commerce from tiles, 7 food in the bin @ size 3
baseline towards worker
plains hill, working gold at size 2, marble at size 3
prod at size 1: (2+1)*1.5*5 = 4*5 = 20
prod at size 2: (2+1+3)*1.5*7 = 9*7 = 63
prod at size 3: (2+1+3+4)*1.5*4 = 15 * 5 = 75
@ turn 19: great wall + 8 overflow
@ turn 19: 163 commerce from tiles, 7 food in the bin @ size 3e
3 turn faster worker b/c of large overflow
desert river, working floodplain at size 2 till just before size 3, then switching to gold+marble
prod to just before size 3: (1+1)*1.5*8 = 3*8 = 24
prod after: (1+1+3+4)*1.5*10 = 13 * 10 = 130
@ turn 18: great wall + 4 overflow
@ turn 19: 159 commerce from tiles, 10 food in the bin @ size 3
1 turn faster worker
plains hill, working floodplain at size 2 till just before size 3, then switching to gold+marble
prod to just before size 3: (2+1)*1.5*8 = 4*8 = 32
prod after: (2+1+3+4)*1.5*8 = 15 * 8 = 120
@ turn 16: great wall + 2 overflow
@ turn 19: 159 commerce from tiles, 8 food in the bin @ size 3
3 turn faster worker
by settling on the plains hill, we get our worker 2 turns faster at the cost of 1-2 flood plains. ordinarily that might be worth it, but really that just means that we'd be working a cottage 2 turns faster, which is a paltry 2 commerce now and 2 commerce 10 turns from now as compared to working a raw flood plain. or, it means an additional road. don't think that trade is worth it. i'm not sure if we'll end up having to move our capital because of all these stupid junk tiles, but at the very least 5 villages + a goldmine makes our existing capital worth an academy.
so, tl;dr i agree with drach that we should settle the desert river at least as far as beelining TGW is concerned.