SGOTM 21 - Xteam

Oh, and you could probably safely send Galley 2 (1W of New Amsterdam) a bit more westward, since there's no sign of Willem's Triremes anymore. The closer that we can (safely) get a Galley (such as Galley 2) to our Queen Elizabeth Galley, the sooner that we can join the Great General to a Galley.
 
What's that, the CP Vanilla Curse, where the game says "CP is playing, let's switch rulesets"? Just makes me feel like I know what I'm doing for a moment

Note that we do take a minor risk whenever we have a single unit somewhere, but given that Willem just has Longbowmen, I think that we'd be HAPPY if he attacked our unit. Indeed.

However, I don't suggest that you also move Sabutai as then we'd be risking our War Elephants who are 1N of the City in unfavourable combat. It's better to have Sabutai guarding our wounded units than to try to stop Willem from getting 1 Hammer from the Deer. That said, we don't want to bait a Longbowman with a wounded War Elephant being 1N of his City as the Longbowmen would stay inside of the City if it won.
Okay. You know this game well, but I've never seen a hill-promoted LB move out of a hill city to attack.

Will build galley in Piscatorium.

Playing shortly.
 
I've never seen a hill-promoted LB move out of a hill city to attack.
Normally it wouldn't, but if you give it good odds, especially with a unit adjacent to an AI City, and even more particularly for a wounded unit, the AI might take advantage of you.

Think of moving a Warrior next to a Barb City with 4 City Defence Archers in it... your Warrior is too good of a target to ignore, as would be your partially-wounded Axeman. Even though the units technically have a defensive Mission, that Mission can get overridden in such a case.
 
Played through most of T127 without incident.

T126: Adjusted Picatorium and covered gem mine near Hague.

IBT:
E will trade spices for sheep. (Any reason not to do that?)
Utrecht will be pacified on the next turn. (Have Culture queued up there, but don't really understand why.)
Now there are 5 LBs in The Hague, and, more positively, a trireme in NAm.
Mansa has 140 gold, but it's fools' gold for us right now.

T127:
Execute plan.

(BTW, HA from Hippos told to go SW + S of corn, but that's a mountain tile, so I put him SW + W.)

Save is below. I will wait a little while for feedback on the two items in red above, but will play some of T128 and post later tonight regardless, stopping for consultation as needed.

Save:http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG021_AD0300_01.CivBeyondSwordSave
 
E will trade spices for sheep. (Any reason not to do that?)
Do it. We have bucketloads of Healthiness and are low on Happiness.


Utrecht will be pacified on the next turn. (Have Culture queued up there, but don't really understand why.)
What should happen after 1 or 2 turns is that the Cultural Borders will quickly expand so that the City won't shrink too much and then on the turn that the Cultural Borders expand, we will receive the Culture and then the "Culture" build item will disappear from the top of the build queue, placing the Hindu Missionary at the top of the build queue, giving the Hammers to the Hindu Missionary.

It's a long-known trick used in SGOTM games.

Basically, it's a trick that some other teams will be using, so we might as well use it, too.


(BTW, HA from Hippos told to go SW + S of corn, but that's a mountain tile, so I put him SW + W.)
Oops. That should have said on the G Riv that is SW + S of the GH road where we'll be potentially founding a gift City for Willem aka SW + SW + W of the G Corn (but, hopefully won't need to now that we'll be Liberating Amsterdam, but... with bad luck with 2 Confucian Missionary attempts, we'll have to found said City).

The point is to have the Horse Archer just outside of the Cultural Borders.

On T128, we can move the Horse Archer 1SW on the G Road, leaving him with 1.5 movement points, and we'll be fine, as that will be enough movement points to capture and raze the gift City. Again, we probably won't need the gift City unless we get terrible random number luck with trying to spread Confucianism twice.
 
Don't forget to whip the Galley in Piscatorium

You are one heck of a ballsy guy! Dodging a Trireme just to land +1 Spearman. :0


If we don't end up fighting with either Chariot and we end up using 1 Chariot to capture that Worker in the south, the other Chariot could be used to garrison Utrecht. But, let's not get ahead of ourselves, as those Chariots might be needed in the fight to capture The Hague.
 
We could also move Warrior 1 (in City 4) NE + NE to the P Riv For that is 1S of New Amsterdam to deal with the possibility of, say, an Archer appearing in the City from having whipped the Trireme so that if one of our War Elephant or Horse Archer fails, we'll still have a unit that can kill a defender in range.


Just remember that we don't want to capture New Amsterdam in this first war, only in the second war, after we have gifted Workers to Willem in his new capital of New Amsterdam.


Going to hit Enter, anticipating posting a save again soon.
That's fine by me.
 
The resolution was indeed to stop the war against W, and voted 'NO'.

There are now 6 LBs in The Hague, which means there's some chance we'll fail. I don't think we have a choice, but thought it appropriate to let team decide that, as failure would clearly eliminate us from contention.

My plan would be to attack with most, probably all, the cats, starting with the CR3s, and then our best WEs. If it looks like the city can be taken while holding the maces in reserve until they have good odds, will do so.

Save: http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG021_AD0325_01.CivBeyondSwordSave
 
The resolution was indeed to stop the war against W, and voted 'NO'.

There are now 6 LBs in The Hague, which means there's some chance we'll fail. I don't think we have a choice
We really don't have a choice. The Hague has got to go down this turn.

Our Spy cannot help as the City Defences have already been Bombarded down.


My plan would be to attack with most, probably all, the cats, starting with the CR3s, and then our best WEs. If it looks like the city can be taken while holding the maces in reserve until they have good odds, will do so.
A couple of points here:
A wounded Cat or a crappily-promoted Cat does as much Collateral Damage as a City Raider III Cat.

The main difference is that a City Raider III Cat has a greater chance of damaging the top defender.

But, the ability to retreat is partially tied to the odds of success, since a Cat can either get a "lucky" retreat (the same as in Vanilla) or can retreat by damaging the defending unit down to a level where the Cat is forced to retreat (about half health on the defender, which is a point that is unique to BtS). Thus, increasing the odds of success for our "better" aka City Raider III Catapults is a useful tactic.

So, for the first 2 Catapult attacks, I would suggest using the Cats that are most likely to die no matter whether they attack first or last, so they might as well attack first and hope to get in a lucky hit against the top defender. Those Cats would be Cat 2 and Cat 3, who are 1N of the City.

After that, if there is still a full-health Longbowman while the others are all wounded, we could try to wound that top defender with a War Elephant (probably the least-promoted one, WE 6, who is 1NE of the City).

Hopefully, the City Raider III Cats have semi-decent odds now, but if not, you could also toss Cat 6 into the mix and then use the 2 City Raider III Cats.

If you go in with the City Raider III Cats and haven't used Cat 6 but there is just one strong defender and the next-strongest defender is quite weak, you could again toss in a War Elephant. Otherwise, if there are 2 or more defenders of about equal strength, throw in Cat 6 before a(nother) War Elephant.


After the Cats are done, check to see how much Health remains for the healthiest of the Longbowmen and see if you can use Combat I War Elephants to wound all of the healthiest of defenders until, as you say, we can get decent odds using Horatio (don't forget that Horatio gets a chance to retreat, so we should plan to use him at some point).

When you're ready to hit with the War Elephants, I'd start with the least-XP War Elephant, WE 6 (1NE of the City) and probably leave the wounded War Elephants for the last of the War Elephant attackers.

EDIT: Also, in a pinch, a Chariot has a chance to retreat, but they're probably best left until near the end of the fighting when they can also stand a reasonable chance of winning, instead of just having a chance of running away.


May the force be with you but ultimately it's going to come down to the fact that we have plenty of siege units, so we should be fine no matter what order you attack in, as long as most or all of the Cats go first, with a possible other unit or two to help with cracking a top-defender Longbowman who just won't get injured after the first 2 Cats go in.
 
"But, the ability to retreat is partially tied to the odds of success, since a Cat can either get a "lucky" retreat (the same as in Vanilla) or can retreat by damaging the defending unit down to a level where the Cat is forced to retreat (about half health on the defender, which is a point that is unique to BtS). Thus, increasing the odds of success for our "better" aka City Raider III Catapults is a useful tactic." Did not know of this difference. Glad I stopped for consult.

Given that there's just no other good option, I'll proceed with the attack now . . .
 
Played as planned (only lost 4cats in taking The Hague) until the worker gifting, but not sure what screen shots I'm suppose to take. It's not like gifting gold. Do I take a screenshot of the workers in NAm, use the package icon to gift them to W, and then take another screen shot of them still in NAm?

Here is the pre-gift save from Central: http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG021_AD0325_02.CivBeyondSwordSave

Sorry, but getting late here. If screen shots are clarified, I'll be glad to play until the end of the turn in about 9 hours, or be happy for someone else to take it from here.

(BTW, I sent the wrong missionary into NAm initially. Glad we didn't need him.)
 
but not sure what screen shots I'm suppose to take.
Select one of our units inside of New Amsterdam and take a screenshot of the main game screen.

After the gifting of 7 Workers (just gift the Workers, not the Spy or the Misisonary), do the same thing by selecting one of our units in that City.

It will be obvious that those Workers were first owned by us and then are owned by Willem.

EDIT: To gift a unit, select that unit and then click on the pink gift/present icon.


(BTW, I sent the wrong missionary into NAm initially. Glad we didn't need him.)
That's why we planned for redundancy... things were tight enough as it was that the more backup options we had, the safer our plan was. Excellent work so far!


EDIT 2: As for "the end of the turn," we haven't quite planned out the rest of the turn (such as City builds) partially because I'd like to see what our tasks are before making such a plan. Things might change as a result of getting different tasks. So, all we really need to do is finish off the Worker gifting and upload that saved game and then wait to hear all of the remaining clues.
 
I'm against the plan of razing Amsterdam. Autospread will save us missionary costs.

Let us give theology, paper, education, philosophy and liberalism to France. He won't trade away education.

Let us send confusianism and hindu missionaries to everyone. And many hindu missionaries to France. Drop the conf missionary in a big city first and then drop the hindu in a small city.

We have the christian and confuist holy cities and they have higher spread rate then hinduism so I'm not to worried. We should not shot ourself in the foot. I think the risk of keeping the hindu holy city is very small.
 
Made the gifts and posted Post-gift save at Central and here: http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG021_AD0325_03.CivBeyondSwordSave

Screen Shots:

Pre

http://forums.civfanatics.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=392753&stc=1&d=1429278391

Post

http://forums.civfanatics.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=392755&stc=1&d=1429279196

Will send an email to BSPollux and Deckhand now.

Will play no further until discuss Folket's objection to razing Amsterdam.

Probably a good time for someone else to take over.

From what I've seen in Shaka's territory, he is quite weak, and I haven't found many Impi's. We have WEs (admittedly not the best units to go against him with) and spears already there, along with our two GGmaces, and we could put some cats and our latest mace on a galleon to get them there quickly. Seems a shame not to take advantage of his weakness or to leave our units unused for many turns; plus, we need GG points. So, would suggest at least using our two chariots to help the warrior quickly check out the rest of Shaka's territory, particularly in the NW to see if E has units there occupying him and he is vulnerable. He has some coastal cities that would add to our strength going forward.
 

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Nothing unexpected to hate you about, but that's not to say there's no ire directed your way.

Looks like we're going to need another GG after the one we're working on.
 
Inga ändringar för våra planer. Låt oss döda dem nu.
 
Tasks
Elizabeth #1:
- Keep our Galley alive (probably upgrading it to a Galleon to avoid it dying and to make more use out of it)
- Earn the 120-XP Great General, of which all 20 XP will go to that boat
- Gift the boat to Elizabeth, probably after we fight her in a war

I believe that we've already all agreed not to pursue the other Elizabeth tasks.

Isabella #1:
- Get a Great Prophet (easily doable, but at a cost of working less Moai-improved squares or, when we're at max Happiness, working less PH Mines
- Get a Great Scientist (doable if we do not want Mansa to research Physics for us)
- Get a Great Artist (probably easy enough to do if we put The Taj Mahal and The National Epic in Utrecht)
- Has a cost of us not using those Great People for other uses, such as a 2-Great-Person Golden Age
- Has a cost of us not being able to let Mansa tech Physics for us (I don't see an easy alternative of reliably getting another Great Scientist)
- Has a cost of us hiring Specialists instead of putting citizens to other uses, such as whipping them or working the Mines

Isabella #2:
- Must get her to +3 Relations
- A City on the Desert
- A City with an Odeon, a Grocer, a Wall, and a Castle
- We have to build the Castle before researching Economics (which we plan to tech) and the wall before researching Rifling (which we do not plan to tech)
- If we attack Isabella, we can make this task happen
- She lacks Macemen, Longbowmen, and Pikemen, so she's going to be a relatively soft target
- She is getting Ivory from Mansa, but if we cut off that trade, warring against he could go smoothly
- Isabella has 9 Cities, so if we Liberate 8 of her Cities after whipping them down, one of which is the Desert City where we whip the required Buildings for her, we'll get +12 with her after taking a -3 with her for declaring war on her
- She is not likely to run Hinduism as a State Religion, so we can spread Hinduism to several of her Cities before Liberating the Cities to her so that we have a solid voting buddy who will be in Buddhism (or in Judaism if we Liberate the Jewish Holy City but greedily hold onto the Buddhist Holy City)
- We could optionally try to get Liberalism into her hands before the war as, unlike most other AIs in this game, she actually won't trade techs to other players easily. The idea would be to force her into Free Religion as part of a Peace Treaty after getting her down to a single City. However, she might switch back to her Favourite Civic of Theocracy, though, so it may not be worth the effort to try to get her into Free Religion and we can simply be happy with her being Buddhist/Jewish (but probably Buddhist as that has been her State Religion and is likely better-spread in her existing Cities)
- If we get her to vote for us and we control the spread of Hinduism manually, we might only need her as our voting buddy

Isabella #3:
- Requires us to tech Radio. We already need its pre-requisite tech of Electricity for Industrialism. It would be possible to get this tech in trade, as long as the AI who researches it (Mansa?) doesn't immediately start to build one of the three World Wonders that it unlocks
- Requires us to have a place to Chop out an 800-Hammer Wonder which does not get any production bonuses or to get a Great Engineer

Catherine #2:
- Unlock Gunpowder for Musketmen and which is needed for Combustion
- Unlock Physics for Airships and which is needed for Electricity, which is needed for Industrialism
- Unlock Combustion and Industrialism for Tanks
- Earn the 5th Great General, aka the 150-XP one, after the 4th Great General (or self-tech Fascism near the end of the game for the free Great General)

Catherine #3:
- I don't think that it makes sense to tech so far in the game AND find somewhere to build the Apollo Program and only then build Spaceship Parts

I don't see a way for us to possibly complete Catherine #3 before Catherine #2, and CP's recent comment seemed to be in alignment with this statement, so that leaves us deciding what to do about Isabella, teching the remaining techs for Catherine #2, and planning our AP Victory.


Elizabeth #1
Certainly, more warring will be required to achieve Elizabeth #1.

We definitely need to capture The Apostolic Palace from Elizabeth at some point.

We're also going to have to capture most of Elizabeth's Cities either for the purposes of Liberating them back to her as a voting buddy or so as to reduce the number of AI votes of AIs who vote against us.

But, going against Elizabeth now is not going to be nearly as efficient as going after her with Cuirassiers, which are also a detour, but one that can be paid for on this map with the efficiency of warring.

We're going to either want to heavily spread Hinduism domestically (which takes away from Military-Unit production at a key time) before attacking her or we're going to need to have a well-planned war, to avoid her ending a war partway through using an AP Resolution, which would make it pretty tough to earn her as a voting buddy (2 war declarations for 1 set of City Liberations) and would leave our forces hanging... do they wait around for 10 turns or will they have to come back to deal with her later?


Military Tradition for Cuirassiers
We could plan to skip Cuirassiers, but they're really just +1 tech that we don't need, as we need Gunpowder for Catherine #2 and we need Constitution for Corporation, which is needed for Industrialism for Catherine #2. Cuirassiers make warring so much more effective due to their abilities to ignore Walls + Castles, their strong base strength of 12, their 15% ability to withdraw from combat, and their speedy movement which can allow for efficient capturing of multiple nearby Cities before an AI has a chance to spam too many defenders. Also, with their extra movement they can pick off AI units which march close to our stack, such as AI Catapults who are on their way to cause Collateral Damage to our stack.


Catherine #2
We will have to keep teching heavily for Catherine #2.

We're also going to either need a Galleon chain or some warring against her.

The toughest part will be unlocking Industrialism and Combustion for Tanks.

Once we have the ability to build Tanks, it'll just be a matter of time before we can get our military parade to Catherine.

So, teching still comes first... if our war saves us 5 turns in transporting Military Units to her but we have to delay our teching by 20 turns to make it happen, we didn't really benefit from the war... we'll just have to plan well when the time comes to make the decision of fighting her or building a Galleon chain for her.


Facsism
We're then either going to need an additional 150 XP for a Great General for her or we're going to have to add a detour to Fascism on the tech tree to get the free Great General.

Warring is beneficial in many ways, including for setting up our AP Victory voting buddy or voting buddies, so I believe that we should plan to earn the XP through war.

Fascism unlocks Police State, if we don't mind spending 1 or 2 turns of Anarchy switching into it, but it only provides a +25% production boost to Military Units. Compare that with a +33% production boost when whipping from The Kremlin, while whipping is going to be how we'll produce most, if not all, of our Tanks.

If we're low on population points, it may be worthwhile to detour to Fascism near the end of the game, but unfortunately, it's a tech that won't come until near the end, so we'd only really use it for our 12 Tanks, which is probably not going to pay off in terms of the number of game turns but may pay off in terms of not whipping our Hindu Cities so hard (which would reduce the number of AP Votes that we will have).


Communism
Again, while it's a detour of 1 tech, it's one that will pay off.

We will need Stone for The Kremlin, which probably means settling 2 Cities near to Mao (one for Marble and one for Stone), although the Stone City is also close to Louis, thanks to Louis' REXing onto Mao's continent.

The Kremlin itself is a great Wonder, with a 33% boost to whipping Hammers.

State Property improves Watermills and Workshops.

State Property removes the need to build Courthouses, of which we currently have 0, removes the need to build the Forbidden Palace, and reduces Maintenance Costs even below what you'd pay if you were to build the Courthouses. We're not Organized, so being able to skip Courthouses will be a good boost to our Civ

State Property also gives us +10% Hammers in all Cities, which is a nice boost for whipping.


Trading Partners
Mansa is a trading partner, but with him running Taoism as his State Religion, we could easily anger many other AIs in the game for Trading with their Worst Enemy. So, if we keep him as a trading partner (which I believe is something that we must do), we might not easily be able to get the votes of other AIs who may give us -4 for continuing to trade with Mansa

Willem is about to be eliminated and he too readily traded away the techs that we fed to him, so it's good that he's going to die. But, that fact means that he also won't be a tech-trading partner anymore

Elizabeth is a potential tech-trading partner, with her being Financial and her having The Great Library, Hinduism for Hammer-producing Buildings, and the University of Sankore. The question then becomes how do we get her techs... perhaps we let her research some techs and then we take them later via a Peace Treaty? Or, do we fight her now and Liberate some of her Cities so that she can keep teching? Or, do we just say that her usefulness as a trading partner has come to an end and we go for her throat now?

Do we want to enable any of the other AIs? Such as AI would need to be Friendly toward us for the effort to be worth it, and I don't see such a situation easily being set up with any of the AIs whom we have met, except for possibly with France or Japan via Liberation after a war, and possibly with Catherine. But, the war should come before the tech-gifting, and by the time that the war is over, there might not be enough turns in the game for such an AI to help us.

Catherine may be an option if execute 2 wars with her, Liberating Cities each time and thereby relocating her capital. After that, we could enable her technologically and have her as a voting buddy. Or, we might just decide to build Galleon chains for her and keep her backward


Isabella Tasks
Which one is better?

Isabella #1:
Pros:
- It shouldn't be too hard to get our Great Prophet
- If we get our Marble City, it shouldn't be too hard to also get a Great Artist in Utrecht using The Taj Mahal, The National Epic, a Theatre, and an Odeon

Cons:
- Producing a Great Prophet in our Moai City means producing several less Military Units at a time in the game when those Military Units could be very helpful, both due to hiring Specialists and due to diverting Hammers into 1 or 2 more Temples
- We don't have a reliable way to generate a Great Scientist
- If we try and fail to generate a Great Scientist when we try for one at not-100% odds, we'd need a 900-GPP Great Person, which puts further strains on what we can do with our limited population points (less whipping, less working of Mines, etc)
- If we go for the free Great Scientist from Physics, it removes the chance of us having Mansa learn Physics on our behalf. If we give Astronomy + Scientific Method to Mansa, he's likely to research Physics on our behalf, which he will gladly do so that he can earn the free Great Scientist, and which saves us turns not having to research that tech ourselves; so, going after Physics ourselves means not getting such a tech in trade from Mansa


Isabella #2:
Pros:
- This task fits in well with attacking Isabella (we can't capture and gift a Shaka City to her without first fighting her anyway, as she wouldn't accept such a City, and we won't attack Mansa just to get her a Desert City... I don't recall seeing other Deserts on the map)
- Isabella could make for a reliable voting buddy, as she is likely to be Buddhist and thus we can give her several Hindu votes without worrying about her switching to Hinduism
- She has a lot of Cities, most of which appear to be coastal, making for a chance to gain a large City Liberation bonus with her
- Only Mansa (currently) would be angered by us going to war with her, and Mansa isn't a reliable voting buddy as we won't be attacking him
- She hasn't been warring, so if we prepare a large enough army before attacking her, we can cut through her Cities quite quickly without much resistance

Cons:
- A different task may be easier to implement than a full-scale war on Isabella


Isabella #3:
Pros:
- Only +1 tech needed to unlock it, although it's an expensive one (Radio)
- Mansa may research the tech for us if we enable him sufficiently

Cons:
- We'd need a large amount of Unchopped trees somewhere in a reasonably-large-sized City, which might not be feasible (unless we want to give up on The Taj Mahal and save pretty much all of Utrecht's trees... recall how 12 Utrecht trees was only getting us around 440 Hammers, which still puts us far short of the needed 800 Hammers)
- Or, we'd somehow need to generate a Great Engineer (I don't see any feasible way to make that reliably happen)
- If Mansa does research the tech, he'll have to decide not to build 1 out of a possible 3 Wonders on the turn that he learns the tech, which is a bit of a luck-based thing, especially since he won't be in a war and has several nice Cities, so he could easily start on such a Wonder


So, I am currently leaning toward Isabella #2, where we plan to make Isabella our primary voting buddy.

With sufficient Galleons, War Elephants, and Cats, we can strike at her Dyes City (I think that she is trading Dyes for Ivory--or else, whatever other City contains the Resource that she is using to trade with Mansa) as well as her Hammer-heavy Cities, to hopefully also cut off her access to Copper.

From there, it will just be time spent warring, bringing her down to 1 City, manually-spreading Hinduism in some of the captured Cities, probably whipping the captured Cities down to replace our lost Military Units, then Liberating the Cities to her (maybe the Hindu ones won't be reduced to Size 1 or else the Hindu Cities will be Cities with a lot of Food so that they can regrow)... with an option of immediately recapturing and again Liberating her Cities to her if we feel that we need the extra Diplo to secure her as a voting buddy.

If we wanted to keep most of Isabella's Cities, we'd capture them a total of 3 times, earning a net +15 Diplo Attitude with her (-3 + 12 -3 + 12 - 3 = 15) and still getting to keep her Cities. That said, we'd probably be better off simply whipping her Cities down when we own them the first time and letting her keep her Cities in the end so that it will be easier to make her our voting buddy without her slipping into Hinduism herself (she'd minimally need to have the Buddhist Holy City aka her capital or perhaps the Jewish Holy City).


Razing Amsterdam
Ignoring the niceness of being able to whip 9 population points after waiting for about 10 turns of City Revolt, it is extremely detrimental for us to keep this City.

Recapturing the City could remove the Forge and Lighthouse, but let's say that we would be able to keep them with some luck.

9 population points with a Forge means 9 * 37 H, which is roughly 9 Missionaries.

So, if we don't raze the City, what could happen?


in the case of the AP I found it gave contact between all members (anyone with AP religion in a city).

There are a few implications of this. For example, if you spread the AP religion to a backwards civ that no one has met yet, then they will get contact for tech trading which may make them more difficult to kill later :sad: Your AP missionaries will be spreading contact along with their religion :wow:
Well, for one, Catherine could get Hinduism auto-spread to her as soon as we learn Astronomy, which would be bad as then she'd no longer be an isolated backward AI and would immediately begin meeting any AI with Hinduism in one of their Cities and she could very quickly enter the tech-trading game, further speeding up the global tech pace of backward AIs (i.e. AIs learning techs that we know, which won't help us, but would hurt us if we went to war with said AIs).

The same could be true of other AIs whom we are not yet ready to meet the rest of the world due to Diplo reasons (i.e. meeting an AI who then becomes their Worst Enemy, making the Diplo situation trickier).

Essentially, razing Amsterdam puts us fully in control of where Hinduism spreads, while keeping Amsterdam leaves us out of control of where Hinduism spreads.


Thanks for the great article! Finally saved my mystery "why doesn't the diplo victory vote come up?" waiting for hundreds of turns. Of course, I had too many votes (>75%)
We also need a voting buddy, but the voting buddy plus our votes must make up 75% of the world's Hindu votes.

Let's assume the case where no player has a Hindu State Religion. In that case, it's simply a total count of population.

Currently, Mansa has 25 votes that won't go to us. Hopefully, he won't spread Hinduism further, but let's say that he does spread the Religion a bit and perhaps grows his Cities and he gets a total of 45 votes, which is not that unrealistic.

Each AI in the game (8 of them, with Willem dead) and say minus 1 voting buddy (it would be ideal to have 2 voting buddies, but maybe less practical than 1 voting buddy) where each non-voting-buddy has a Size 5 City with Hinduism in it gives us 7 * 5 = 35 more votes not going to us

We'd also have to kill Shaka with Cuirassiers or Tanks, otherwise he'd have (currently) another 29 population points, so, an extra 29 - 3 = 26 votes not going to us

45 + 35 + 26 = 106 votes not going to us

So, somehow, between ourselves and our AI voting buddy, we'd need 3 * 106 = 318 population points!

Now, that's in the case where we're in control of Hinduism by razing Amsterdam.

If we do not raze Amsterdam, then let's say that Hinduism auto-spreads to an additional 5 AI Cities at an average Size of 6. That's an extra 30 votes not going to us, meaning that we'd need an extra 3 * 30 = 90 population points just to make up for this cost! How can 9 free Missionaries ever make up for this cost? It can't.

And, that's assuming a best-case scenario.

What's more realistic is that Hinduism spreads to a Size-9 City of Mao's and he further spreads Hinduism himself to several of his Cities. We'd have to invest Hammers in Spies and Commerce in Espionage to switch him out of Hinduism and would need a large number of population points to overcome his additional votes.

I don't see how getting 9 Missionaries' worth of Hammers makes up for such a cost.

Conclusion: We must raze Amsterdam if we want a hope at winning an AP Victory.

On the plus side, then we won't have to worry about spreading other Religions to the AIs anytime soon and we can mostly ignore Missionaries for a long time, allowing us to focus on building Military Units when they'll be the most use... over time, auto-spreading of the other 6 Religions will do our job for us.


An AP Victory won't be trivial... or is it? With good planning and razing of the Hindu Holy City, it could be
The more that I think about it, the more challenging that it will be to set up an AP Victory. We can do it and we should do it, as building The UN would be its own challenge and any other Victory type is far off for us given our late start with warring.

But, it means that investing in a Settler for Toku on a junky island is worth the cost... 1 Settler means him having 1 vote that won't go to us, which means us needing 3 population points to counter his vote. Spreading Hinduism to one of his Size-5 Cities means us needing an additional ( 5 - 1 ) * 3 = 12 population points. Even if we pick a Size-2 City, that City can grow to Size 5 by the time that the game is over.

A Settler can be 3-pop-whipped. Which is better... 3 population points whipped or having to obtain and maintain 12 population points at the end of the game?

Also, how are we going to whip a ton of Tanks and still win if we need a large # of population points just to win?

We also can't just park several Settlers + Hindu Missionaries around the map, as there's a limit to how many Hindu Missionaries that we can have or can be building at a time (a total of 3, which is not a lot).

But, what we CAN do is be creative... we will settle a Marble City near Mao. We will settle a Stone City near Louis. We'd already planned to do so. When it's coming time for us to win, we whip those Cities down to 1 population point each. Then, we gift those Cities to those respective AIs. At a time between founding these Cities and the end of the game, when it's convenient for us, we can spread Hinduism to these 2 Cities.

Due to having razed the Hindu Holy City, those AIs will never get Hinduism on their own, so they will only have 1 vote each.

Similarly, we can settle an island City near Japan to which we will spread Hinduism. Near the end of the game, we can whip it down to Size 1 and gift it to him.

That's 3 AIs taken care of.

Shaka, Elizabeth, and Mansa already have Hinduism.

Assuming that we cannot easily gift a City to Catherine (what with her likely being on her own continent), we will either fight her to make her a voting buddy or we can simply have a Hindu Missionary (rather than a Hindu gift City) near to her empire near the end of the game.

Or, we relocate her capital to our core area and then it will be simple to gift her a Size-1 Hindu City later.


As for Mansa, assuming that we do not go to war with him, we can limit the domestic spread of Hinduism by:
1. Giving him Astronomy + Scientific Method (which leads directly toward Physics, making Isabella #1 appear less attractive) so that he cannot build any additional Hindu Monasteries
2. Giving him Education + Liberalism and hoping that he'll go into Free Religion (or switching him during one of our Golden Ages by slipping into Free Religion ourselves temporarily) so that he'll be out of Organized Religion and thus won't be able to use the Organized Religion Civic's ability to build Missionaries
3. Using Spies to Sabotage any Jewish Monasteries that he has already built so that he'll be completely unable to build further Jewish Missionaries

With the Hindu Holy City razed, we'll be fine if he uses Astronomy to settle the world's islands... let him improve his tech pace, as it will only help us, and we won't want to settle those Cities anyway. We won't be in danger of those Cities gaining Hinduism at an awkward time (a Size-8-Fish-Island-City getting Hinduism near the end of the game could really mess us up).

Elizabeth either becomes our voting buddy or gets reduced to a Size-1 Desert Island City to the south of her empire that we initially only put Confucianism in so that she'll run Confucianism as her State Religion after we capture her Hindu Cities... either way, we'll make her Hindu votes count for us.


Isabella or perhaps Catherine then becomes our primary voting buddy, although it would be good to have 2 voting buddies.


Shaka dies near the end of the game, with us possibly razing his Hindu Cities if keeping them would put us over the 75% threshold, but otherwise us keeping the Cities to earn more votes. Expect all of Shaka's Cities to be Size 1 upon capture, though, as he's a whipping-crazy little fiend who will whip his Cities to the bone if your stack of Military Units gives him time to do so.



So, there we have it... a plan... that isn't quite a complete plan, but is close to a plan, as we still need to decide who to fight next.


Which AI Next?
Elizabeth:
Pros:
The bulk of our army is close to her
We don't have a large navy yet, so until we get one, she'll be the easiest target to hit
Our reinforcements can arrive at her shores quite quickly while we build up our military forces
Capturing the AP early would be of great help to us, as leaving it for the end could make getting the right AP Resident voting cycle come up a real challenge
We'd have more Cities that could build Hindu Temples for +2 H and +2 Flasks if we also capture The University of Sankore from Elizabeth
We have a war ally to help fight her navy (Shaka)
We'd build up Mutual Military Struggle points with Shaka and he might stay in the war longer due to having an ally, while he will be less inclined to declare war on us after the Elizabeth war due to liking us more for fighting by his side

Cons:
She could vote for the war against her to stop (and we wouldn't be allowed to Defy it if we want to win by AP Victory... but, there's also a small chance that Shaka would Defy such a resolution)
She has Macemen
She might get Engineering for Pikemen or Feudalism for Longbowmen soon


Isabella:
Pros:
She's not in a war yet, so she won't have a lot of Military Units yet
She has a lot of Cities, and the ones that we see have Buddhism in them, so she could make for an excellent voting buddy

Cons:
She could have built some War Elephants or might at the start of a war
She could learn Feudalism for Longbowmen at any time
We don't yet have much of a navy, and ideally, we'd have 8 full Galleons of units before attacking her, so that we could strike at 2 Cities (12 of our units each) at the start of the war
The bulk of our units are in the west and our boats are in the east
Attacking her later would also work for making her a good voting buddy


Catherine:
Pros:
She's likely technologically backward
Hitting her sooner would allow us to save some turns near the end of the game

Cons:
She's at the opposite end of the map, according to Willem's clue
We don't yet have much of a navy
We don't know for sure that she lacks Feudalism and finding out (meeting her) could speed up her tech pace
While it would be nice to take care of her soon, we don't have enough captured AI Cities to form a core set of Cities from which to form an army


So, my current line of thinking is that we should target Elizabeth next. We can get Spies to her metal units and our forces are positioned close to her, so then it becomes a logistics problem of getting our Military Units onto boats and into position.

The next AP resolution could be troublesome, but we could work around it... we could launch the war just after the next AP resolution... and if the next one is to stop the war against her, we could bribe Shaka to Cease Fire with Elizabeth to avoid Elizabeth being invincible for 10 turns.

Again, we should never accept a request to "Stop Trading with a Worst Enemy," as then we will lose the ability to talk to that target AI. For example, if Elizabeth asks us to stop trading with Shaka, we must tell her "No," so that we'll keep open the option of being able to bribe Shaka into a Cease Fire with Elizabeth.
 
I'm against the plan of razing Amsterdam...
I think the risk of keeping the hindu holy city is very small.
I believe that I have made a strong enough case that shows that we have no other choice but to raze Amsterdam if we want to win by AP Victory.


Let us give theology, paper, education, philosophy and liberalism to France. He won't trade away education.
If he begins liking another AI at Friendly status, your assertion that he won't give away the techs disappears. Also, if he meets another AI who knows those techs, such as Elizabeth, those techs could get easily traded-around.

But, we don't even need to get him into Free Religion as we'll simply gift him a Size 1 Hindu City at the end of the game.

The only thing that we cannot do is agree to an AI's request to Stop Trading with their Worst Enemy, which would prevent us from gifting a City to said Worst Enemy. As long as we do not make that diplomatic mistake, we'll be fine.

In the absolute worst case of an AI in financial distress (a case where an AI would not accept a gift City that is close to their empire), we can gift some Gold per Turn, which gets an AI out of financial distress. I'm pretty sure that gifting Gold per Turn is fine as long as we don't try to take that Gold per Turn back, as we wouldn't be subsidizing an abusive trade and would just be making an AI financially stable so as to accept our gifted City.

Failing that, we could declare war on said AI and let that AI capture our planned gift City. As long as our City had grown to Size 2 at some point in the game, the AI would be able to capture it instead of auto-razing it. We could double-check the relevant AI personality to ensure that the AI isn't the kind of player who razes Cities and if he is, have a backup option in place, such as gifting a City as part of a Peace Treaty.


Let us send confusianism and hindu missionaries to everyone. And many hindu missionaries to France. Drop the conf missionary in a big city first and then drop the hindu in a small city.
Perhaps you missed my AI Analysis message, but here are some relevant excerpts:
AIs Voting for us
Louis likes us now because we're in his Favourite Civic of Hereditary Rule.

If we go for Nationalism for The Taj Mahal, that puts us 2 techs away from Cuirassiers and 1 tech away from Representation.

If we run Representation, Louis isn't going to be in love with us anymore.

That's not saying that we need to stay in Hereditary Rule, but it is saying that we shouldn't count on the illusion of an AI who temporarily appears to like us, especially when that AI already has +4 for Fair and Forthright Trading, making it hard for us to quickly or easily make that AI like us by an additional amount.

...

AI Analysis
...
Louis, on the other hand, has "waterways" in between his Cities, making it incredibly easy to get from one City to the next via Galleons.

...

Louis could become a voting buddy if we capture and Liberate his Cities to him, and he's at least reasonably easy to take on, with a max of 3 Cities on the same landmass as each other... we would target his core Cities first, before he can spam too many Military Units from them, and then we can easily pick off other Cities later. We just, ummm, lack much of an army at present, so we'd almost certainly have to go to Cuirassiers and then go after him, but it's still a pretty decent option.

Louis, however, was only Cautious when +3 toward us, so he's actually a pretty terrible voting buddy if we don't capture and Liberate his Cities to him.
It is not feasible to make Louis (France) a voting buddy peacefully, so this plan isn't really workable unless we also plan to go to war with Louis.

Instead, let's build Military Units instead of Missionaries and let the auto-spreading of 6 Religions do its magic.
 
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