Hard, cold, battle-tested facts
1. The earliest we would steal Math or CoL from Hatty would be T73 (FC) or T74 (CEB), because they need to 2whip spies (T68, T69).
2. Delaying Alexa by 8t costs us 240 raw beakers @30bpt. If Alexa is currently running a castes scientist, she could pop the GS as early as t70, bulbing T71. Pollina, can you tell if Alexa is working more than two tiles in the current save? The two fogged desert tiles would have roads if they were improved, right?
3. If Alexa settles the GS, that pays itself back in about 3.5t * #turnsdelay.
4. Hatty is teching at about 110 f-bpt so she's likely to finish 2-3 techs before we attack her, maybe another before we take both cities.
5. It will take us a while to steal all those techs. To me, Math is the only pressing tech.
6. Fred will talk after 1t if we capture Fredburg with no losses, after 3t with 1 loss.
7. Option: We could DOW Hatty and land at Thebes on T69, and attack on T70 with 4 HAs.
8. Option: We could land at Athens on T67 and attack T68. Our spare warrior could see into Athens on T65, although such a decision would delay any attack on Alexa, in other words, this would be a decision made after seeing that Hatty's not teching Monarchy and deciding to delay the attack on Alexa.
9. Option: We could DOW Joao T68, attack Lisbon T69.