SGOTM 23 - Xteam

[Cactus Pete]

Completed testing through T48. Plan works nicely. (Easy to follow, Dhoom. Thanks to no little effort on your part.)

Not ready to play, though, as I found an alternative worth seriously considering:

Rather than move the missionary up NE of Paris, I left him on the plains hill forest 2NE of Lisbon, just to learn how Joao would proceed. At least in this test game, J just continues to build work boats and no archers. Most importantly, his worker proceeds to do nothing but road. (Apparently he has not researched AH.) On turn 42 the worker moves to road the cow 3E of Lisbon, with neither of J's two warriors accompanying him. If we do not retreat our warrior to Paris and place him on the plains forest 4E and 1N of Lisbon on T41, he can capture the worker on T42, and both should be able to get away safely. This would mean contacting Egypt and dealing with potential unhappiness in Paris, but that seems a reasonable price for a worker and stunting J. Thinking we can't afford to miss steeling J's worker, so should play so as to position ourselves to take advantage of it, if available. Our missionary can monitor whether real game worker actions mimic test game.

I also captured Fred's worker on the sheep. Did it a turn later (T42, I think) because I wanted to see if it would work without relying on teleportation. Again, got away, but not before Fred's archer and spear appeared. They did not come after their worker though. How strongly can we rely on that cautious behavior if the test scenario presents itself, and should we consider stealing both workers?

Perhaps someone should else test stealing J's worker before we continue.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

It's a neat idea for sure. However, I am not convinced that it is in our best interests to try to take Joao's Worker given the costs involved.


The impact of delaying our Library in Paris by roughly 3 turns to build an extra Warrior that we otherwise wouldn't need in the short term is relatively large, as it means delaying Alphabet, delaying our Great Person, and delaying when we can start making use of Slavery.

We're talking about setting our entire empire's development back by several turns, which is quite a significant thing to consider.

What can an extra Worker do for us? Not much without Bronze Working, and we're talking about delaying Bronze Working just to get said Worker.

Frederick has Copper for Spearmen and Axemen and has room in which to REX, so it's worthwhile to slow him down by taking his Worker.

Joao is totally trapped, has nowhere to go, and at best can field Chariots. If he were to REX overseas, all of the power to us, as an AI with a split-up empire is easy to conquer.

Joao is probably our best tech-trading partner for getting early-game techs (Archery, Mining, Bronze Working, etc) since:
i. Churchill might not meet anyone else and thus won't trade us any techs
ii. Stalin won't trade techs unless he is Pleased toward us and we met him too early to be able to gift him up to Pleased easily
iii. Frederick will likely treat us as his Worst Enemy without gifting him some techs

Joao has also been peacefully building Work Boats; do we really want him to switch to spamming Archers? Wouldn't it be better to stay peaceful with Joao until we're ready to capture a City or two from him so that he doesn't make very many Archers? It would be fabulous if he does what Frederick does in the test game and builds Warriors as Settler Party escorts, leaving 2 Cities defended mostly by Warriors.



The only reason why we wouldn't benefit from using teleportation is if one of Frederick's Units or a Barb Unit exists on the G For to which we'd like to teleport.


AI Units have Missions. In BtS, Settler Party escorts act differently than units which seek out enemy invaders. If an AI Settler runs away, then its escorts spend 1 turn in place while they change their missions and then they can come after you or else can go back to following the Settler.

In BtS, if a Settler Party gets threatened, the Settler runs away while the escorts stand in place for a turn, except in the case when the Settler can settle its target City within one turn, in which case it will simply settle the City instead. "Haha, you declared war too late to stop me from settling here, puny human!" thinks the AI, regardless of whether that was your reason for declaring war (in our case it would be to steal a Worker, instead).


EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm fine if we use our Missionary to keep a bit of an eye on what Frederick does, rather than having our Missionary camp out to the north-east of Paris, but please be sure to avoid meeting the Yellow AI.

Spoiler :

Note that I do not 100% guarantee that staying the north and west side of the yellow line that I drew will prevent us from meeting the Yellow AI. We'll also want to avoid spotting any Yellow AI Work Boats and I'm not 100% sure about every square relative to that yellow line, so it could be worth checking a test game where you've used the World Builder to edit Egypt's City Culture (use the Edit City icon near the bottom left of the World Builder icons and then click on said City) to a value of 500 (or higher) to ensure that you're seeing the full potential effect of the Yellow AI's Culture.

 

[Noble Zarkon]

Certainly a neat idea but agree probably best to keep Joao netting the seafood for our future GP farm [emoji51]

 

[Cactus Pete]

It's a neat idea for sure. However, I am not convinced that it is in our best interests to try to take Joao's Worker given the costs involved. Perhaps not, but I'm not convinced you've given it full consideration. If we are able and willing to steal a German worker, then I'm fine with leaving Joao for now (and disregard my arguments below), but if we don't make that steal, then I still favor stealing J's worker, if we can.


The impact of delaying our Library in Paris by roughly 3 turns to build an extra Warrior that we otherwise wouldn't need in the short term is relatively large, as it means delaying Alphabet, delaying our Great Person, and delaying when we can start making use of Slavery. We're talking about setting our entire empire's development back by several turns, which is quite a significant thing to consider. What can an extra Worker do for us? Not much without Bronze Working, and we're talking about delaying Bronze Working just to get said Worker. The impact of stealing a worker is not insignificant either: It sets J back (and, BTW, after he has completed all his workboats); it can initially build roads that will be badly needed in time; it will speed development of new cities; it will save us building a badly needed worker (perhaps a barracks instead).

Frederick has Copper for Spearmen and Axemen and has room in which to REX, so it's worthwhile to slow him down by taking his Worker. Concur with that, but what is the risk of his attacking Paris? (J, we could deal with.) Even if he doesn't send a stack, how would we get out of war with him?

Joao is totally trapped, has nowhere to go, and at best can field Chariots. If he were to REX overseas, all of the power to us, as an AI with a split-up empire is easy to conquer.
Joao is probably our best tech-trading partner for getting early-game techs (Archery, Mining, Bronze Working, etc) since:
i. Churchill might not meet anyone else and thus won't trade us any techs
ii. Stalin won't trade techs unless he is Pleased toward us and we met him too early to be able to gift him up to Pleased easily
iii. Frederick will likely treat us as his Worst Enemy without gifting him some techs Wouldn't Fred trade with us if we don't steal his worker? Also, wouldn't Egypt trade with us if we do steal J's worker?

Joao has also been peacefully building Work Boats; do we really want him to switch to spamming Archers? Wouldn't it be better to stay peaceful with Joao until we're ready to capture a City or two from him so that he doesn't make very many Archers? It would be fabulous if he does what Frederick does in the test game and builds Warriors as Settler Party escorts, leaving 2 Cities defended mostly by Warriors. Good points, and strengthens the argument for stealing from Fred, but what if we can't or decide the risk is too great?

The only reason why we wouldn't benefit from using teleportation is if one of Frederick's Units or a Barb Unit exists on the G For to which we'd like to teleport. Isn't teleportation somewhat random. I'm concerned that we would be sent 2W rather than 1NW, and that possibility would make the stealing and escaping more problematic.


AI Units have Missions. In BtS, Settler Party escorts act differently than units which seek out enemy invaders. If an AI Settler runs away, then its escorts spend 1 turn in place while they change their missions and then they can come after you or else can go back to following the Settler. In BtS, if a Settler Party gets threatened, the Settler runs away while the escorts stand in place for a turn, except in the case when the Settler can settle its target City within one turn, in which case it will simply settle the City instead. "Haha, you declared war too late to stop me from settling here, puny human!" thinks the AI, regardless of whether that was your reason for declaring war (in our case it would be to steal a Worker, instead). When I waited to steal the worker until the turn the city was founded, the warriors still didn't attack. Spear and archer from Berlin did pursue initially. Why didn't they continue after their worker?

Understand about Egypt's culture.

 

[pigswill]

Quick test. XO started second WB t43. completed t51, pop4 +20/24 food, ripe for double whipped settler.

In this test run Fred founded his third city 1E of our NE city spot.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

If we are able and willing to steal a German worker, then I'm fine with leaving Joao for now (and disregard my arguments below), but if we don't make that steal, then I still favor stealing J's worker, if we can.

Can we find a way to leave open the possibility:
i. Without delaying Paris getting a Military Police Unit
AND
ii. Without meeting the Yellow AI?

For example, what if after its Work Boat, XO Cognac finishes its Warrior to completion?

Can we perhaps play with the Missionary not meeting the Yellow AI and then stopping play once XO Cognac reaches Size 3 to determine whether to finish the Warrior or to continue building the Settler?

The impact of stealing a worker is not insignificant either: It sets J back (and, BTW, after he has completed all his workboats); it can initially build roads that will be badly needed in time; it will speed development of new cities; it will save us building a badly needed worker (perhaps a barracks instead).

How much of a loss does Joao really suffer when all he's really got for improvements are Work Boats? Until he settles City 2, his Worker can't improve a useful square for him to work. I'd prefer to see him focused on building Work Boats and then Settlers with his excess Food. A BtS AI at war will spam Military Units. A BtS AI at peace will need 17 turns to be able to build a build item. If it takes Joao more than 17 turns to build an Archer since all that he is working is seafood, he might not build one for a while as long as he stays at peace with us. But, a Settler can be built using Food, so he may begin building Settlers, since they'll take less than 17 turns to complete

How much more do we suffer by getting Joao to build Archers, or worse, a Galley that comes to Pillage our seafood?

As for Joao's Horse Resource, personally, I'd rather see Joao build a few Chariots than a few Archers, so having him hook up a Horse Resource is better for us than not having him do so. An Archer with a 0% Fortification bonus defends at 4.5 Strength in a City. Add to that a 25% Fortification bonus. Add to that a 60% Cultural Defensive bonus. Now, we're looking at 3 * (1 + 0.5 + 0.25 + 0.60) = 3 * 2.35 = 6.70 Strength plus 1 First Strike. A Chariot defends at 4 Strength and its innate Retreat ability doesn't help it on defence.

Enemy Chariots can be annoying when:
a) You pure Axe-rush
OR
b) There's a lot of terrain for an AI to move around in

Neither case applies here, as Joao's Chariots would be moving 1 square at a time to be able to come at us.

Also, wouldn't Egypt trade with us if we do steal J's worker?

The Yellow AI and the Light Blue AI are going to make for good medium-term tech-trading partners, as we can afford to enable semi-nearby AIs with techs, so that they will hopefully research up the cheap Religious (not counting Code of Laws), Mathematics, Aesthetics, and Metal Casting tech paths for us. Meeting them before we do our first round of trading may complicate this possibility. Shaka, like Stalin, for example, is easy to trade with if you can gift him a tech on the turn that you meet him, but also like Stalin, has a low WFYABTA value with iNoTechTradeThreshold = 5. Hatshepsut's is a bit higher at 10, but let's say that she uses The Pyramids (as in our test game) to build The Temple of Artemis... we might want to keep her around for a while so that we can send a Great Merchant Trade Mission to her for extra Gold, meaning that we'd need her as an even-longer tech-trading partner.

Good points, and strengthens the argument for stealing from Fred, but what if we can't or decide the risk is too great?

Not stealing a Worker from anyone is also an option. Proceeding that way may make it harder to go after Frederick in the future, but he may not give us a chance to steal his Worker. Our Worker micro carries us forward with only needing one Worker for the next little while. After we Chop + Whip Granaries, it won't be too hard to self-build Workers.

Stealing a Worker earlier (say, at around Turn 10 or Turn 15) would have helped us to set up our empire. Stealing a Worker now is more about making Frederick's life difficult; meanwhile, Joao isn't really even using his Worker for anything useful, so taking it doesn't really hurt Joao.

Isn't teleportation somewhat random.

Teleportation is not random, it is deterministic. It will always work the same way given the same layout of Culture, terrain, and Units. That's why I suggested that we stop play if we see Frederick's Worker on or close to the G Riv Sheep, so that we can set up our test game to confirm that we've fully understood how the teleportation will work.

When I waited to steal the worker until the turn the city was founded, the warriors still didn't attack. Spear and archer from Berlin did pursue initially. Why didn't they continue after their worker?

Use the World Builder. Select the Edit Unit icon. Click on a given unit. If there are multple units in a stack, use the drop-down list to switch between them. Check to see what the Mission of each Unit is.

If you left an AI's Cultural Borders, some of its Units will not pursue you nearly as aggressively as when you are wandering around inside of its Cultural Borders.

ripe for double whipped settler.

XO Cognac has 3 improved squares that it will be working, so it won't be to our advantage to whip the City down to Size 2, particularly before we've built ourselves a Granary.

Part of the reason of growing to Size 3 prior to improving the Horse Resource is so that we'll be able to switch to working the Horse Resource as soon as the Horse gets Pastured, rather than being at Size 2 and only growing to Size 3 after the Horse has been Pastured, which would mean a couple of turns of having that Resource improved but not being able to work it.

 

[pigswill]

Whipping from pop 4 down to pop 2 then growing to pop 3 the following turn isn't a great disadvantage (20 food+4(cow)+5(fish)).

 

[Cactus Pete]

Can we find a way to leave open the possibility:
i. Without delaying Paris getting a Military Police Unit Don't see how.
AND
ii. Without meeting the Yellow AI? That shouldn't be a problem.

For example, what if after its Work Boat, XO Cognac finishes its Warrior to completion?

Can we perhaps play with the Missionary not meeting the Yellow AI and then stopping play once XO Cognac reaches Size 3 to determine whether to finish the Warrior or to continue building the Settler? Cognac reaches size 3 on turn 45, two turns after we need an MP in Paris.

How much of a loss does Joao really suffer when all he's really got for improvements are Work Boats? Until he settles City 2, his Worker can't improve a useful square for him to work. I'd prefer to see him focused on building Work Boats and then Settlers with his excess Food. A BtS AI at war will spam Military Units. A BtS AI at peace will need 17 turns to be able to build a build item. If it takes Joao more than 17 turns to build an Archer since all that he is working is seafood, he might not build one for a while as long as he stays at peace with us. But, a Settler can be built using Food, so he may begin building Settlers, since they'll take less than 17 turns to complete

How much more do we suffer by getting Joao to build Archers, or worse, a Galley that comes to Pillage our seafood? Hadn't considered a galley. Are we sure Joao has BW and therefore likely no copper in Portugal to mine?


Not stealing a Worker from anyone is also an option. Proceeding that way may make it harder to go after Frederick in the future, but he may not give us a chance to steal his Worker. Our Worker micro carries us forward with only needing one Worker for the next little while. After we Chop + Whip Granaries, it won't be too hard to self-build Workers. Follow that. BTW, where would we settle if we steal a German worker?

Teleportation is not random, it is deterministic. It will always work the same way given the same layout of Culture, terrain, and Units. That's why I suggested that we stop play if we see Frederick's Worker on or close to the G Riv Sheep, so that we can set up our test game to confirm that we've fully understood how the teleportation will work. What would be critically different from the present test game?

Use the World Builder. Select the Edit Unit icon. Click on a given unit. If there are multple units in a stack, use the drop-down list to switch between them. Check to see what the Mission of each Unit is. Already know that in the test game they stay in the two German cities. I'm asking how certain that behavior will be replicated.\

I'm going to play until I have to move the warrior to Paris to see if the real game mirrors the test game and we really do need to hash this out further.

 

[Cactus Pete]

Played into turn 38.

Joao's worker began cottaging instead of continuing to road, so his roading to the cows will be delayed, perhaps for many turns. Thus, will send the warrior toward Paris this turn.

Fred, however, has behaved consistent with the test game. So, we are in a position to declare war, capture his worker, and likely get away with it. I'm in favor of making the steal. Would suspect that other teams have. Is there any way from the power graphs to see if they added a worker at this point?

Will wait 24 hours for team (all of them, hopefully) to weigh in on this critical decision.

Here is the save from central: http://gotm.civfanatics.net/download.php?file=Xteam_SG023_BC2480_01.CivBeyondSwordSave

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Cognac reaches size 3 on turn 45, two turns after we need an MP in Paris.

My suggestion was to use the Warrior built out of XO Cognac as our Worker thief and to delay stealing a Worker from Joao until that time. If I recall correctly, we'd get that Warrior on Turn 48. Would that be soon enough to satisfy you? It could also be the Unit that goes to meet the Yellow AI after a couple of turns of tech trading.

In other words, Warrior 2 would still head to Paris as a Military Police Unit and we'd delay stealing a Worker from Joao until just after having traded techs from Joao.

Alternatively, we could just plan to whip or Chop a Chariot shortly after learning Bronze Working, which will be a far more effective Worker-stealing Unit, as it will have manouverability, is unlikely to get counter-attacked, and can even steal a Worker that is 2-squares-deep in Joao's Culture.

Are we sure Joao has BW and therefore likely no copper in Portugal to mine?

Joao, just like all of the AIs whom we have met, is running Slavery. Frederick recently learned Bronze Working. In contrast, Joao has been running Slavery for some time now. If Joao had Copper, he'd have already started Mining it, instead of building Roads to nowhere.

BTW, where would we settle if we steal a German worker?

Three choices:
1. Get a Cease Fire (or, if necessary, give away a tech for Peace) and settle where we'd planned, as we won't have our Settler ready to settle before Alphabet
2. Settle there anyway and stay at war, expecting that Frederick won't put together an attacking party of units for a while and knowing that we can always settle for Peace with a tech whenever we choose to do so
3. Settle to the south of Paris to share the Wheat for a Cottage-helper City that might also later be used as a Tech-stealing City

What would be critically different from the present test game?

Only the item that I already mentioned, which is whether there are any Barb Units or any of Frederick Units on the G For square that is 1 W of the G Riv Sheep to which we would teleport. There is no "tele-fragging" as in Doom, so you can't teleport on top of an enemy unit.

Already know that in the test game they stay in the two German cities. I'm asking how certain that behavior will be replicated.

AI Units get Missions assigned to them when they are created and those Missions can change over time. 2 AI Units should stay in the capital as defenders. 2 AI Units should stay inside of any newly-settled City for 10 turns after the City was settled. Beyond that, it's hard to say, as it will be a combination of a Unit's Mission type and that AI's courage dice roll for that given turn for that given Unit.

Whipping from pop 4 down to pop 2 then growing to pop 3 the following turn isn't a great disadvantage (20 food+4(cow)+5(fish)).

That's a fair point.

What if we decide not to switch into Slavery immediately? We can gain a turn on moving our Settlers if we slow-build them both and then slip into Slavery.

How much sooner would we get the Settler out of XO Cognac by switching into Slavery on Turn 52 relative to slow-building it? We would also have to factor in 1 turn slower for getting out Paris' Settler.

Growing to Size 4 takes 26 Food. Growing to almost Size 5 takes another 20+ Food. 2-pop-whipping trades the 24 Food plus the 26 Food for 60 Hammers, minus the 3 Hammers and 1 Commerce from the Horse for 1 turn, minus 1 Hammer from a G For for a few more turns. That's roughly equal. But, meanwhile, we're missing out on Hammers going into a Settler. On the plus side, we've earned back a few Hammers by working a G For at Size 4 while slow-building a Settler.

On paper, it feels like we'll be delaying our Settlers, but give me some comparison numbers between the two approaches as to when we'll get our Settlers (no Slavery and slow-building the Settlers versus using Slavery and growing however you want so as to whip XO Cognac's Settler and still end up with close to the same amount of Food--i.e. being almost at Size 3 again).

Units such as scouts, workers missionaries and spies contribute zero soldiers to the demo screen.

I don't know how we'd tell from the Score, Power, and Culture graphs that another team went to war to steal a Worker, except if they lost their Warrior and their Power went down.

 

[Jersey Joe]

CP: We can be sure Joao knows Bronze Working, since the Foreign Advisor Info screen shows that Joao and the other the 3 AI's we have met have adopted Slavery.

 

[Jersey Joe]

Fred, however, has behaved consistent with the test game. So, we are in a position to declare war, capture his worker, and likely get away with it. I'm in favor of making the steal.

If you have the chance to recruit a German worker to our cause do so.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

My suggestion is to focus on planning out what we're going to do with a Worker once it has been stolen.

We'll want to make sure that the path back home is clear, so that a Barb Unit doesn't eat it.

How can we move our Worker so that we maximize its travel time with 100% safety with help from Warrior 1?

Should we be building partial Roads on the way back toward Paris?

Once we get in the Paris area, what should we be using him for? Should we bother to spend turns Roading toward the City that we plan to settle to the north-east of Paris? Unless we "waste" 2 Worker turns by building a Road on the G For where we plan to settle and also build a Road 1 SW of there, we won't be able to save a turn in settling the City, so those Worker turns might not be well used. Or, maybe they will be well used if the plan is to also Chop the Forest on which we would be settling before we settle there.

Or, should we get the Worker closer to Paris, possibly starting on a G Riv Farm while we wait for Pottery to come in for Cottages or Bronze Working to come in for Forest Chopping?

 

[Cactus Pete]

My suggestion was to use the Warrior built out of XO Cognac as our Worker thief and to delay stealing a Worker from Joao until that time. If I recall correctly, we'd get that Warrior on Turn 48. Would that be soon enough to satisfy you? It could also be the Unit that goes to meet the Yellow AI after a couple of turns of tech trading. Sorry, I misunderstood. Using warrior 3 might work out very well.

Alternatively, we could just plan to whip or Chop a Chariot shortly after learning Bronze Working, which will be a far more effective Worker-stealing Unit, as it will have manouverability, is unlikely to get counter-attacked, and can even steal a Worker that is 2-squares-deep in Joao's Culture. That sounds good also. Any reason for our missionary to move any time soon?

Joao, just like all of the AIs whom we have met, is running Slavery. Frederick recently learned Bronze Working. In contrast, Joao has been running Slavery for some time now. If Joao had Copper, he'd have already started Mining it, instead of building Roads to nowhere. Yes, of course, I saw that days ago and forgot. Senility is a terrible thing.

Three choices:
1. Get a Cease Fire (or, if necessary, give away a tech for Peace) and settle where we'd planned, as we won't have our Settler ready to settle before Alphabet Skeptical that we can get a cease fire. Peace for Cognac for sure, but unacceptable. How likely would Fred take a tech for peace (acceptable), if we haven't done him any further harm? We can't negotiate this, can we?
2. Settle there anyway and stay at war, expecting that Frederick won't put together an attacking party of units for a while and knowing that we can always settle for Peace with a tech whenever we choose to do so Do we know now that he'd settle for a tech?
3. Settle to the south of Paris to share the Wheat for a Cottage-helper City that might also later be used as a Tech-stealing City Then where would our third city go?

Only the item that I already mentioned, which is whether there are any Barb Units or any of Frederick Units on the G For square that is 1 W of the G Riv Sheep to which we would teleport. There is no "tele-fragging" as in Doom, so you can't teleport on top of an enemy unit. And testing will inform us on this better than the clear view we have now?

I don't know how we'd tell from the Score, Power, and Culture graphs that another team went to war to steal a Worker, except if they lost their Warrior and their Power went down.

Understand. Thought it might be something else I was unaware of.

 

[Jersey Joe]

My suggestion is to focus on planning out what we're going to do with a Worker once it has been stolen.

We'll want to make sure that the path back home is clear, so that a Barb Unit doesn't eat it.

How can we move our Worker so that we maximize its travel time with 100% safety with help from Warrior 1?

Should we be building partial Roads on the way back toward Paris?

Once we get in the Paris area, what should we be using him for? Should we bother to spend turns Roading toward the City that we plan to settle to the north-east of Paris? Unless we "waste" 2 Worker turns by building a Road on the G For where we plan to settle and also build a Road 1 SW of there, we won't be able to save a turn in settling the City, so those Worker turns might not be well used. Or, maybe they will be well used if the plan is to also Chop the Forest on which we would be settling before we settle there.

Or, should we get the Worker closer to Paris, possibly starting on a G Riv Farm while we wait for Pottery to come in for Cottages or Bronze Working to come in for Forest Chopping?

How about, after the Worker is recruited. Warrior leads Worker (if barbarian sighted, Worker moves to avoid if possible) 1W from Sheep to Forest > 1SW Forest > 1SW Grass partial road.
Then worker moves before Warrior, 1SW G and if no barbarian in sight 1W Hill; Warrior 1 moves 1W F Forest to spawn bust.
When Worker makes it back to France, Road grass 1E of cow (even though it does not save a turn in settling, it will connect the city to Paris adding a trade route and makes it easier to move troops toward Fred).
Then finish partial farm SW of Paris or prep work for city we are going to build SE of Paris.

 

[Cactus Pete]

How about, after the Worker is recruited. Warrior leads Worker (if barbarian sighted, Worker moves to avoid if possible) 1W from Sheep to Forest > 1SW Forest > 1SW Grass partial road. Move the worker first onto the grass and we might avoid our warrior being killed by a barb.
Then worker moves before Warrior, 1SW G and if no barbarian in sight 1W Hill; Warrior 1 moves 1W F Forest to spawn bust. That works.
When Worker makes it back to France, Road grass 1E of cow (even though it does not save a turn in settling, it will connect the city to Paris adding a trade route and makes it easier to move troops toward Fred). Prefer moving onto the forest NE of Paris and roading that, which will save us turns settling.
Then finish partial farm SW of Paris or prep work for city we are going to build SE of Paris.

What about roading the hill 1E of the forest NE of Paris for an eventual mining operation and then the wheat and the forest 2E of wheat

 

[pigswill]

Number of issues regarding worker steal.
i) We declare on Fred before moving warrior, warrior gets teleported 1W of worker, warrior moves 1E to capture worker, ok so far. Currently German warrior+settler SE of our warrior/worker, presumably settler retreats to Berlin, does Fred's warrior attack across the river, presumably at 30-40% success because of the river. Will Fred whip something substantial from Berlin eg axe or spear? If so would Fred invade us?
ii) Can we get the worker back safely? It doesn't look as if there are additional units to help with escort. On the other hand we haven't seen any barbs nearby.
iii) In terms of diplo Chill and Joao haven't met Fred yet so no diplo penalties from them. We go from 0 to -3 with Fred for dow, he'll be annoyed with us but will tech trade at annoyed, assuming we're not still at war. Giving him a tech for peace clearly screw up tech trading. Will we become his worst enemy? Currently Stalin is his worst enemy at -2 (and any hidden modifiers).

Its nice to have an extra worker at this point in the game of course and stealing one saves us some turns. On the other hand Paris could build a worker before or after chopping/whipping settler.

If Fred loses a worker then he may take some turns building a replacement delaying his next settler so more likely we'd beat him to NE city spot.

If we can get worker back to our borders, Fred doesn't invade us and will still be willing to trade then worker steal is clearly a benefit. If any of those conditions aren't met then worker steal is not a benefit imo.

 

[Dhoomstriker]

Updated test game so that you can play around at Frederick. I haven't had a chance to try it out. Add a Barb Unit or two on the map in order to get a random seed each time that you try. If we do get attacked by taking the Worker now, then we shouldn't get attacked if we wait 1 turn to steal a Worker, as then the 2 Warriors will be needed to guard Frederick's City 2.

We won't have to worry about invasion. He can't put together a military force soon enough and then we'll be able to buy him off with a tech if he later does come with units.

Even a portion of a tech is enough to get Peace, so a full tech is overkill in value. I don't see how giving away 1 tech will screw up our ability to gift another tech or two and then to trade whatever we have remaining, should we choose to do so. With Joao as a primary short-term tech-trading partner, it might not even matter if we choose not to trade with Frederick.

Worker 1 is already slated to Road on the G For 1 NE of Paris.

I don't see value in Roading the GH, which also reduces the chance of Forest growth.

Maybe just plan to Road the G For where we'd settle the north-east City and the square 1 SW of there (i.e. 3 NE of Paris and 2 NE of Paris). If we partially Road within Frederick's Culture, a Barb Animal can't attack us for the first 2 turns of partial Roads.

Warrior 2 definitely needs to head back to Paris now.

There are 60 Population points in the world, 6 of which are ours

Joao has connected 3 / 4 seafood Resources, but only 1 of his Crabs.

We have a Trade Network connection with Joao, so we can trade him our Wheat as soon as he connects up his second Crab.

EPs:
Stalin 12 / 0
Frederick 156 / 0
Churchill 221 / 152
Joao 1 / 0

Our third/fourth City goes to the south-east, either 1 E of the 2nd Fur or 2 E of the 2nd Fur.

Our Missionary shouldn't need to move yet, no. Plan for him to be able to spread in the north-east City, say, on Turn 54, which would be 3 NE of Paris. If we can arrive there by that time, then the Missionary still has time to hang around Portugal.

A Road 2 E of our Wheat could also work, but that's a lot of lost Worker actions just getting there without doing any Roading along the way there.

 

[Jersey Joe]

CP: I did not think of the the forest 1NE of Paris (assumed it was Worker 1's job). If it looks like Worker 2 will get to out borders without running into problems, then Worker 2 can road that forest and Worker 1 can put more time in partial farming 1SW of Paris before moving to improve the horses.

 

[Cactus Pete]

CP: I did not think of the the forest 1NE of Paris (assumed it was Worker 1's job). If it looks like Worker 2 will get to out borders without running into problems, then Worker 2 can road that forest and Worker 1 can put more time in partial farming 1SW of Paris before moving to improve the horses.

Yes, He can get there same time worker 1 is scheduled to. Dhoom wants to road to future NE city. That doesn't save turns, if we road the NE forest, so I'm for getting worker 2 back home onto the NE forest and sending worker 1 onto the forest SE fo Paris-- from there he can road and proceed just as in the original plan. Worker 2 can road NE forest, then (avoiding hill road to allow forest growth) move onto grass forest 2SW of Paris, road that, and then road wheat or perhaps help pasture the horse. (We might not even be able to settle NE city if Fred gets there first.)

Think the odds are very high that we can get the worker back home.

Using Dhoom's test game, also got teleportation to NE forest and no problems capturing and bringing worker home to NE forest, so am ready to play, declaring war this turn.