Should I always attack with 20-30% odds of winning?

[auldian]

I ask because the likelihood of winning a 70-80% encounter seems almost nil. I understand RNG. I'm not asking for the premise to be restated. I've determined that, as my strongest encounters reduce my attack stacks by 1/3 to 1/2 with the odds in my favor, should I be leading with fodder? Should I be attacking with near dead 10-20% victory odds?

 

[Elrohir]

Only if you outnumber the enemy 3-1.

Recently I attacked an AI's capitol with two Axemen, an archer, and a chariot on it with only Axes and Swords. Oh - and it was on a hill, and had walls. I had I believe, 9 total units, and that included two Bowmen (Archers with a bonus against melee) and a Spearman, the rest a mix of Swords and Axes. I wasn't sure if I could win - but it turned out to be a cinch, since one of my Swords won with 9% odds, and then the next one won with 16% odds. Simply awesome.*

Anyway, while those things are great, you can't plan for them, and if you try to base your strategy on it, you'll lose most of the time. So only attack with 20-30% odds of success if you have more units to throw into the fray later that same turn to finish off the weakened defenders.



*I know, only tangentially related, but I wanted to brag.

 

[DaviddesJ]

I ask because the likelihood of winning a 70-80% encounter seems almost nil. I understand RNG. I'm not asking for the premise to be restated. I've determined that, as my strongest encounters reduce my attack stacks by 1/3 to 1/2 with the odds in my favor, should I be leading with fodder? Should I be attacking with near dead 10-20% victory odds?

Since the laws of probability don't apply to you, you should attack tanks with spearmen. That will give you the best chance of success, even though it wouldn't work for anyone else.

 

[auldian]

Thanks Elrohir. I see the AI "zerg" pretty effectively.

 

[auldian]

Since the laws of probability don't apply to you, you should attack tanks with spearmen. That will give you the best chance of success, even though it wouldn't work for anyone else.

Yeah, kinda like the probability of getting a smart ass response to a question.

 

[johncross21]

not unless your desperate

chances are you will die without inflicting any damage

try using weak units to mop up weak units - they might get promoted in the process

 

[slobberinbear]

The cannon fodder approach works in certain situations.

Say you have a stack of 12 swords and axes, some of whom are decently promoted. You face 3 archers and an axeman fortfied in a hill city with 20% culture.

You could lead with your best troops, but you will still have a sub-50% chance of victory and lose your promoted units. Or you could attack with your green units first.

IMO, leading with the green units first in this example makes the most sense. You lose 4-6 newbies, keep & improve the promoted units, and take the city. If you led with the veterans, you might lose less troops but would likely lose most of the veterans. Because there is a big difference between a CR III Swordsman and a CR I Swordsman, I say keep the veterans alive.

So the term "cannon fodder" is relative. A worthwhile cannon fodder unit is technologically adequate but relatively unpromoted. A warrior or other inferior unit is worthless, even as cannon fodder, and should be deleted or sent to garrison duty in some interior city.

 

[weimingshi]

Basic strategy is to use newly produced units as cannon folders and then finish the job with highly promoted units. this left you with some elite troops after battle. at 20-30% odds i would attack with 1 or 2 units more than the double of enmy numbers. Remember once you take the city, you got defend it with 2 or 3 units of your own to prevent them to take it back in the same turn. with any odds less than 10%, I would attack first if I have more than quadruple units, second, if sacrificing all those units are worth it, if its a captial, usual answer is yes, if its just a border town, no.

 

[cabert]

to quote approximatevely someone (can't remember who) from the newbies questions thread,

there are 2 ways too kill stuff :
- build better stuff
- build more stuff.

There is a (in)famous unit in cIV. It's not the modern armor. It's the catapult.
Colateral damage brings your troops from 20% odds (the first suiciders) to 80% odds (the mop up).

 

[weimingshi]

siege weapons come very late, axeman swordsman era don't have collateral damaging units. If you want rush you got be prepare to sacrifice some cannon fodder, else wait till maceman and catapults and use the combined arms approach.

 

[manu-fan]

Axemen are the early ones. It's very common that you'll need Catapults to finish off a heavy cultural defense capital with your Swordsmen. Catapults/Swordsmen go together nicely all the way up until Macemen.

Obviously, if you have a close neighbor and get early Iron, you won't wait until Construction to take out that neighbor. But those cases are a little rare.

Cheers.