Sirp's Combat Advisor

[Sirp]

Uhhmmm....that's still ALOT of different probabilities. It's designed to put around 5 units with standard numbers of hitpoints (2-5).

Yes it could use alot of work in the speed area.

-Sirp.

 

[jaap_jan]

Absolutely a nice program Sirp, but there is one thing that i do not understand:
Why is the chance of winning a battle against a 2 fortified spearman bigger for 3 conscript horseman 2/2, than for 3 elite 2/5 horseman?
2/2 -> 9.39646
2/5 -> 8.61915
According to the Civmod file an elite unit has a bigger chance to retreat, so I can imagine an elite retreating before doing maximal damage to a spearman, but the avarage loss inflicted is higher too.
I'm probably totally wrong at some point, but I would like to know where my thinking leaves me alone.

 

[Sirp]

A 2/5 horseman is essentially the same as a 2/2 horseman, except that the 2/5 horseman has a much higher chance of retreating. This has the following implications:

- the conscript horsemen would have more of a chance of winning, since the elite horsemen are more likely to run away
- the conscript horsemen are going to inflict more damage on average, since they stay around to fight and inflict the damage
- the conscript horsemen are going to take more damage on average, since they have much more of a chance of being killed than the elite horsemen.

-Sirp.