People need to understand terms here. ICS means just plopping cities at the minimum distance regardless of terrain. Vanilla civ 5 was full ICS. With specialists on libraries and endless maritime food you just built a city anywhere bought a library and ran specialists. This also gave massive numbers of the ultra overpowered Great scientists. That will NOT happen in civ 6 because of one thing, FRESH WATER. A city not on a river or coast has only 2 housing cap which means they have a 50% growth penalty immediately. There are no specialists without districts that need pop and space. Great People come from districts. You can only build an aqueduct if the city is within 2 tiles of a mountain so city placement is limited until late game. Add in massive adjacency bonuses for both improvements and districts and ICS is not a good strategy.
The question is open if Rapid Expansion is overpowered. I don't think so because there is way too much to do in civ 6 early game. Have you guys actually seen barbarians in this game. They are far more aggressive than in Civ 5 and the games are on prince. Without city bombardment you need military early to deal with barbarians because they will pillage everything. That ties up early hammers in military. Especially since the AI DOES move and shoot and seems to hunt units. Then if you want religion or science or culture you need to build the districts. And city states quests give far more valuable envoys so they are worth doing and can distract you. Then there is the question of eurekas and inspirations. They are so powerful you need to focus on them and they are not gained by expanding. Early war is also beneficial with minimal warmonger penalties.
Then there is the scaling of costs. Each settler, district and builder and district costs more hammers. If you just pile in more cities you will be pay more and more for less since you will be less likely to have the adjacency bonuses to make the districts powerful. And settlers cost 1 population to build which limits your ability to spam them like in Civ 5. Each Luxury only gives 4 cities a boost no matter how many copies you have so fewer taller cities is viable.
Cities are also at the strength they were in civ 5 vanilla and not BNW. Melee units eat cities unless you have walls and siege support negates those easily. Range units are very squishy and have no ZOC which makes mass range units less viable. Enemies can use your roads and send trade routes to make them pushing through rough terrain. The AI pillages more and your buildings are in unfortified districts not behind city defenses as powerful as the Golden walls.
At the same time there is no tradition factor going on here. Global happiness is not a thing so more medium size cities seems like a good strategy. City placement, wonder and district placement is going to make empire building more strategic than ever. You want cities spread out to have the space for adjacency bonuses and improvements to provide housing. But you want them close enough to make use of regional effects such as entertainment bonuses.
Nice analysis!
One thing I've seen in recent gamplays is that barbs don't seem to hunt builders or traders. They just ignore them. That may need some tweaking.