KevinTMC said:
Regarding laptops, they could supplant desktops someday, perhaps, but several changes in the computer business would have to occur. Foremost among them:
I think that laptops will supplant desktops much sooner than you imply.
1) The inverse relationship between size and cost for computer components would need to weaken much further than it already has.
The only remaining factor, here, is the graphics card. Most laptops come with fully game-capable CPU speeds and RAM, and many high-end laptops come with good, low-latency LCD displays.
2) Laptop components would need to be much more standardized and commoditized than they are now. (Proprietary designs and components are a major source of quirkiness in the laptop world...even on a platform like the Mac where the OS and hardware development are overseen by the same company.)
Believe me, as a tech support person: the vast majority of people do
not want to have to upgrade their computers, ever. I've also found that, compantibility wise, laptops are much closer to PCs than you would think. Again, the only area I see standardization being a significant problem is in the area of graphics, because many manufacturers (DELL in particular) release laptops with graphics adapters that will only work with manufacturer-provided drivers. This means that when Civ V comes out, and many people get no textures on the world view, it will take 8 months instead of 1 for the new driver to come along and fix it.
3) Some reinvention of the docking station would need to prove itself a winner where so many others have gone before and fizzled. Because gamers will want to be hooked up to to a big display, 7.1 sound system, and so forth at least some of the time!
I've known and met many gamers who are perfectly satisfied with their 15" or 17" wide screen displays. I think that attaching monitors might catch on, but I don't think that docking stations will become necessary any time soon. A good dock is usually $75-$150, and all it really does for you is connect two USB cords, a DVI cord and an optical out. That seems like money better spent on a bigger display.
Consoles will also not succeed in killing off the PC games market--at least until such features as the keyboard+mouse input format, the ability to create and download patches and mods, and high-definition displays become much more widespread in the console world.
-- Kevin
I agree; the keyboard/most combo is probably the biggest thing keeping people loyal to PCs now. The new consoles will be HD, and consoles have actually used downloads and patches before (ala XBox Live.) I don't know why Microsoft didn't jump on the opportunity to include a cheapo USB keyboard and mouse with the 360.