The chart in my first post gives the general distribution/likelihood of the 12 different events for popping a hut at the respective difficulty levels taken from CIV4HandicapInfo.xml. For each level there are 20 entries total, so in general the chance for a specific event/outcome is equal to the number of entries for that event divided by 20. E.g. the odds for popping a Settler from a hut in a Warlord game is at least 1/20 = 5%. Looking closer one finds that the odds increase under certain circumstances, since several events/outcomes become impossible -- that's what I described in my second post. In the above example popping a hut with a healthy Scout during the first 10 turns will render the events GOODY_HEALING, GOODY_EXPERIENCE, GOODY_WARRIOR and GOODY_BARBARIANS_WEAK / _STRONG impossible so the true chances to get a Settler from the hut are 1/14 = 7.14%.