Nice report.
I believe you're quite right about the proximity to Calakmul's capital. In any case, Calakmul hates Tikal with passion, which is as it should be.
Looking at your minimap, Toniná and Palenque seems to be doing well.
Something that does surprise me is that Palenque never seems to capture Xicalango. I mean, it's not like the Mexicans can really defend it.
Calakmul building the Grand Ballcourt could turn out to be a pain in the neck - that's +25% production everywhere for them!
Once you research Warrior Cult, you should find going on the offensive much easier. In fact, attacking in the JT/Sajal era is so tough I've been considering doing something about it. I don't know what tho - simply upping the JT to 4.2.1 would probably make beelining for Blood Cult too powerful. Maybe Sajals should be moved to a later tech, so that the "deadlock" doesn't last so long.