Chapter 35: The Ultimatum
Look how swift to the snowy sea races Running-Horse River!
And sand, up from the desert, flies yellow into heaven.
This Ninth-month night is blowing cold at Wheel Tower,
And valleys, like peck measures, fill with the broken boulders
That downward, headlong, follow the wind.
In spite of grey grasses, Tartar horses are plump;
West of the Hill of Gold, smoke and dust gather.
O General of the Chinese troops, start your campaign!
Keep your iron armour on all night long,
Send your soldiers forward with a clattering of weapons!
While the sharp wind's point cuts the face like a knife,
And snowy sweat steams on the horses' backs,
Freezing a pattern of five-flower coins,
Your challenge from camp, from an inkstand of ice,
Has chilled the barbarian chieftain's heart.
You will have no more need of an actual battle!
We await the news of victory, here at the western pass!
"A Farewell Song to General Feng of the Western Expedition," Cen Can (A.D. 715-770)
While most government functions had essentially shut down when the revolution began on February 18, 2006, surprisingly little changed at the Ministry of State Security. In fact, the revolution presented a fine opportunity for the MSS chief, foreign minister Zhou Enlai, to recruit new members who were the most talented and loyal to Chairman Mao. These recruits would soon play an important role in determining the direction of China's new foreign policy.
And so when the revolution came to a close at the end of 2008 AD, the first order of business was to resume espionage operations in Japan and India. Zhou carefully chose the two most experienced and reliable men from the pool of applicants, and after briefing them on their tasks, sent them right on their way.
"From now on," said Zhou, "you shall never again use your real identities. You here... you will be called Agent Tong. And you... hmm... well I'll call you Agent Gong."
The two of them saluted Zhou, accepting their new duties. Agent Tong would try to seek employment within the Japanese defense department, while Agent Gong would try to enter the most secure of India's military facilities.
Within days, the MSS heard that they had been successful in their infiltrations, and were awaiting new orders.
By this time the Chinese military had been reorganized under the leadership of defense minister Zhu De, commander in chief of the People's Liberation Army. The navy was likely to play an important role in the upcoming conflicts, and it was now more tightly integrated with the rest of the military as the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). And finally, for the first time ever, the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) was ready to join in the attacks, with many fighters and bombers prepared for action.
Zhu was confident in his troops, but he knew that he would have to pick his battles carefully. The enemy would not be forgiving this time, and there was no substitute for victory. No more would China ever settle for a "peace without victory" if domination was the ultimate goal.
He needed foreign intelligence. And the MSS agents had exactly what he was looking for.
Agent Tong reported from Kyoto his survey of the Japanese military:
And Agent Gong in Delhi forwarded his findings as well:
Together, Zhou and Zhu examined the reports, and they faced a difficult decision. Most of the Chinese military, in the form of tanks and mechanized infantry, had already been deployed along the Indian border, in the Hangzhou-Guangzhou corridor and around Nanjing in the south. But the Indian defense force consisted mostly of infantry, powerful defenders compared with the Japanese riflemen that China had fought with and easily defeated in the past. And so even though it seemed more convenient to attack India because the available forces were already in place on the continent, Zhu felt that India would probably put up much stiffer resistance than Japan.
Yet Japan was formidable on water as well. Much stronger than their Indian counterparts, Tokugawa's navy had nearly as many ships as the PLAN, though several of them were older models of destroyers and frigates. In order to successfully attack Japan, China would have to ensure superiority on the high seas first.
The two ministers were puzzled over this and argued for several days about which foreign rival would be the first target. But one day, economic advisor Liu Shaoqi stopped by the MSS building in Beijing and paid them a surprise visit. He had overheard their conversation, and had some interesting ideas to share as well.
"Do you still remember that we still have ongoing trades with both Japan and India?" he asked. Zhou and Zhu nodded.
"We are exporting iron to India, and Gandhi is supplying us with oil in return," said Zhu.
"And we have a prosperous luxury trade with the Japanese," added Zhou.
Minister Liu was pleased to learn that they were all well aware of the international trading situation. "But ultimately, which trade is more important? We will have to sacrifice the benefits of these trades when war is declared, so I suggest that you choose carefully."
After pondering this for a moment, Zhou spoke. "Entertainment for the people can always be subsidized with government funding if luxury goods run out, and if needed we can also set up some military police. But strategic resources have a value that cannot be so easily replaced."
"Exactly what I would have thought as well," Liu responded. "But let's take a closer look at what Japan and India really have. I'm sure the MSS agents you have sent can supply us with that information, right?"
"Of course," said Zhou. He produced two reports, outlining the situation of the first potential target cities in both Japan and India.
Zhu had suggested that the first Japanese city to take would probably be Matsuyama, in the far north, and the investigation that Agent Tong had provided showed this:
"So that explains why Japan has no infantry," Zhu remarked. "Tokugawa has no rubber."
"And I'm sure Mahatma Gandhi would be far from willing to sell rubber to a hated enemy he has fought with for many years," added Zhou.
"Perhaps," said Liu, "but take a look at this." He pointed at the report that Agent Gong had supplied on Jaipur, the Indian city most likely to be taken out first by Chinese land forces. "As a matter of fact, Gandhi doesn't even have rubber to spare. And remarkably, he doesn't have any oil either."
Minister Zhou gasped. "No oil? How is that possible? Gandhi is still shipping barrels and barrels of oil to our refineries, why wouldn't he keep any for himself?"
"My, my, I thought your memory was better than that," said Liu. "Remember how we discovered oil right after I negotiated that deal with Gandhi? Well, Gandhi had two sources of oil when we traded with him, but the very next year one of those oilfields was exhausted. The Mahatma is an honorable man, and he is dutifully continuing to supply us with excess oil, even more than we need, even though he needs it far more than we do."
"Interesting," said Zhou. "And if we declare war on India, that trade would be canceled, and the Indians would be able to keep their oil for their own use. I don't think we should let that happen."
"A wise choice," agreed Liu. "Besides, Japan seems to be reaping too much benefit out of the luxury deal. What has he done to deserve six luxury goods, the same number as we have here in marketplaces in China? If we go to war with Japan, and capture their spices or incense, we can sell those to India and make a handsome profit."
Zhou and Zhu continued to consider this, and gradually they became more and more convinced that it was not yet the best time to attack the Indians. An invasion of Japan would open up more possibilities, not to mention the fact that it would probably go more smoothly as well.
There was one last thing Zhou wanted to be certain of before submitting his decision to Mao. He wished to know if China had the appropriate military capacity to wage an overseas war against the Japanese. Would there be enough transport ships to send the forces over to another continent? Did the PLAN have enough sea power to escort those transports, or would they be intercepted and sunk by the Japanese navy? Would the PLAAF be able to provide air cover in case the Japanese air force wished to intervene?
The answer that Commander Zhu provided was a resounding
yes. Over the past few years he had long expected a showdown with Tokugawa, and in preparation for that, a large portion of the PLA had been airlifted to Kaohsiung. All that was left was to give them the orders to attack.
For foreign minister Zhou, that was enough to be the last nail in Tokugawa's coffin. Together, the ministers agreed that Japan, and not India, would be the first target of war.
"Excellent work," said Mao when hearing of their decision. "But I heard from Minister Deng today that it might be beneficial for us to acquire the technique of amphibious war from Japan, even though the use of marines is quite limited when our conventional military forces are already so strong."
"Tell him to hand it over," suggested Zhou. "They've demanded that we hand over sanitation before, I don't see what would prevent us from doing the same."
Mao decided that was a great idea, and immediately he dispatched a first transport ship from Kaohsiung, which delivered the message of the ultimatum to the Shogun: "Agree to our demands, or face annihilation."
"What the hell?" shouted an irate Tokugawa. "When did that idiot Mao think he was strong enough to push me around? I was just about to demand technology from the Chinese."
His advisor, Toyotomi Hideyoshi, suggested, "We will respond exactly the same way as they did to us. I'm certain that they are bluffing."
"Well then," Mao said, feigning a sigh. "Poor Tokugawa has just lost his last chance to maintain peace in his land."
"Don't toy with me," snarled Tokugawa. "Get out of my sight."
"Toy with you?" Mao stifled a laugh. "Oh, no, that would be far too kind of us, and certainly not fun enough. No, we will have a big party over on your continent, and then you will be wishing that we were just toying with you."
The Chairman turned to the captain of the transport ship, and gave him a thumbs up. A sudden roar was heard as the tanks on board started their engines, lining up in a single column and steadily rolling off the gangplank. They landed in the pine forest and mountains outside Matsuyama unopposed.
"It was a real pleasure dealing with you, Tokugawa," Mao snickered. "I hope you have fun."
... to be continued