This is a little Java program that simulates trying to take a town. It seems fiendishly tricky to me to calculate the true chance of taking a town but it is reasonably easy to simulate lots of attempts and work out the chances that way.

The program lets you specify the attackers and the defenders, and then simulates lots of attempts to take the town. It allows for retreats according to the formula by BomberEscort, and for those irritating defender promotions. I haven't attempted to allow for bombardment, armies or for units that can attack more than once in a turn. The current defender is selected according to the product of power and remaining hit points as I am not sure how the game does this.

Latest version:

28 dec 04 version