Turn 3900 - New Hut Found

[Duke of Marlbrough]

Since Dell is on vacation, I started playing the next phase of turns.

I moved the horseman first as the citizens have requested (North).

I then moved him North again after he spotted a Whale.

That ended turn 3950.

I selected the horseman to move first and then I then followed the shore for one more movement and found a second hut.

At that point I saved for discussion.

Neither settler has moved this turn and the horseman has one more movement point left.

Will the advisors please start the necessary discussions on opening the hut and new possiblities for city sites now that we have much more information about terrain and specials patterns.

 

[Duke of Marlbrough]

So, depending on which hut pattern we are in, the square NE (move position 9) of the horseman could be a 4 special spot. Maybe a nie spot ffor the capital, if not the SSC....?

 

[funxus]

The resource pattern seems to be a little different from the one duke posted, but the hut was in the right place.
I also think more unexplored territory is uncovered if you move "zick-zack", if the horseman moved through the square W, than SW

Other than that

 

[Ren]

Looks like a good spot for SSC if it is a 4 special site, we should get that under way ASAP. Who should be in charge of deciding whether or not to pop the hut??

 

[starlifter]

Way to go, team!!


We now know TONS and TONS of information with that whale & 2nd hut. Great job, Duke.

1. We are not on a dateline (whew!).
2. All possibilities of layouts are eliminated, except for 3 exact cases.
3. There is zero chance the NW site will have more than one special.
4. We are in the worst possible location for founding a 4 special capital, so forget that idea.
5. We are in a horrible position for a 3-special capital anytime soon.
6. We should not worry about specials for our capital (e.g., 1st city). The debate will later be should the SSC be in the Capital or a nearby city with rivers(?) and more specials (if the specials offer good trade).

About popping the hut... do it. There is zero downsize, since we have not founded City #1, and we have not started science research yet. A unit would be great, but a tech means we get Monarchy one tech sooner (see the tech discussions for how this works).


So cool. Here are 2 graphics, since I know this is hard to visualize without help:

Here is the updated Master Pattern:

And here is our situation, using DoM's graphic:

 

[Duke of Marlbrough]

Originally posted by funxus
The resource pattern seems to be a little different from the one duke posted, but the hut was in the right place.

duke's specials pattern was his guess as to what we had. With the information we had, there was no way to be certain if the pattern was correct. Even now, there are 2 or 3 possible spots as to the specials pattern.

 

[starlifter]

After thinking about it some more, there is a very good subject for discussion (e.g., opinion & vote), about the hut. This is the deal:

1. If we pop the hut before founding a city, it has no chance of being an Advanced Tribe. It also has zero chance of being Barbs.

2. If we pop after founding, we could have up to 3 cities in 2 turns. We will drastically slow exploration if a barb pops out, because our horseman will have to attack, and very likely be damaged to one movement point defeating the barb horseman. The odds will be about (roughly) 40% of an advanced Tribe, based on my own studies posted in other threads of test popping hundreds of huts in this general situation. There is roughly 20 or 25% chance of a barb. A science advance may seriously delay our advance to Monarchy, if the hut gives an advance AFTER we have started our own first science advance. Also, if a unit pops out (about 15-20% chance of that), it will be homed in out Capital, which is terrible.


So It comes down to the mood of our citizens... to gamble on an advanced tribe (it will have water access), even though it may not be in the best location, an AT will double our science output. But just about any other hut outcome is not too good, if popped after capital founding.

Or should we take the conservative route and hope for a NONE unit or advance.

So that's some food for the Council's digestion & maybe polling, etc .

 

[Duke of Marlbrough]

Originally posted by starlifter
After thinking about it some more, there is a very good subject for discussion (e.g., opinion & vote), about the hut.....

....So It comes down to the mood of our citizens... to gamble on an advanced tribe (it will have water access), even though it may not be in the best location, an AT will double our science output. But just about any other hut outcome is not too good, if popped after capital founding.

Or should we take the conservative route and hope for a NONE unit or advance.

So that's some food for the Council's digestion & maybe polling, etc .

Exactly.

I was almost going to pop the hut because I knew we wouldn't get the city founded this turn and hope for a unit.

But, I realized the other possiblity. For that, the hut would then have to be avoided this turn (which would also make the horseman have full movement going into the hut in case of Barbs), the settler moved this turn, city founded next turn and hut popped next turn.

I am torn.

I would like a free city, but (as usual) the free city will be right next to a very nice spot for a (potential) 4 special spot. We could always use the free city to pump out settlers and then relocate it after we have expanded quite a bit.

A second unit would help for exploration and defense (as well as possibly being used for martial law).

 

[GaryNemo]

I agree Starlifter and DM have raised the big questions. I guess having 3 cities right away would be great, but we seem to have an SSC site picked out that would be ruined by an Advanced Tribe.

But since the site NW of the South Settler can have only one special, I must say I'm curious why not consider moving #1 to the SE site and getting the free production. Since we don't know where we are on the island, it seems to me either site could be more central. I suppose its all of the green that you want.

And looking at the old Science thread.. I agree Colossus is very important, but there seems little emphasis on Writing and Diplomats. In gotm16, my Dip popped a hut of 3 Barb Horse, and they did not kill the Dip the next turn. Is that a fluke, or strategy?

So, I don't know what you will do, or even what I'd do. I'm merely a curious observer.

 

[Alcibiaties of Athenae]

Pop the hut before settling.

 

[starlifter]

If it were me alone, I'd pop the hut like AoA said. I would also blitz the #2 settler to the Plains spot (yellow circle) and found th SSC/Captial for the following reason: we will have 3 arrows due to the whale, and our science would be doubled, thus "paying" for the transit time. There is no getting around losing 6 shields and 6 food towards our first settler, however. Meanwhile, I'd start roading to the new capital site with Settler#1. Very likely, a good place to found a 2nd city will be located quick. City # 3 or 4 or 5 would be placed in the region of the NW and SE sites we had originally planed for the capital. The final determining factor of that city would be the exposure of the terrain to the east of the original SE site. Roads will allow the 2nd and 3rd cities to be founded quickly after the settlers are produced.

The slight "downside" to the 3/4 city site is that we might get fish as unseen specials, which would reduce the benefit of delaying the capital founding by 3 days to get up there. That would be yuck! Hoping for whales.
I know, it's a sudden change, but "flexibility is the key to airpower", as we say. Monday, people that only play games at work ( ) can input.

 

[Duke of Marlbrough]

Assuming the spot was a four special, that's basically what I had wanted to do also. Even if it turns out to not be the SSC, having the capital a bit farther North would give us a very slight benefit with corruption in newer cities that will be built (since we know we are at the bottom of the world, most of our cities will be built going North).

BTW, I plan to play the next batch of turns Tuesday night. That will give the 'weekdayers' two days to give input.

 

[ainwood]

Question: Should the first four-special spot be used as the SSC regardless of what the specials are? A coastal location is a must, and I guess the danger of procrastination means we may lose a race to get the colosus. But should we gamble on another 4 special, or even a 3 special with 2 or three trade bonuses?

If the answer to my first question is "yes", then I think we pop the hut now.

 

[Zwelgje]

I'd like to see the hut to be popped and the SSC and capital to be build ASAP on the places starlifter has shown above.

 

[duke o' york]

I definitely do not want an advanced tribe from the hut so we should pop it before settling anyone else. It is nice to have an extra city, but with the SSC then I want to be able to choose where I put it and not rely on the AI to choose it for me. The sooner we put a city down the better really, and I do like having the SSC as the capital so that you don't get pre-Democracy corruption, but we should get going soon and will need a city by our starting location at some point. The grassland shields there should ensure good settler production and the road we have built will enhance trade. It will take four turns to reach the specials site and another to found the city so are we willing to wait that long? We could end up playing catch up but as soon as we can get our science machine rolling then we'll get back on level with the AI in no time.

 

[ainwood]

Will we want to produce settlers from the SSC?

Even if we don't though, the higher the food / production, the faster we can build colossus, library and later on, camels.

 

[duke o' york]

No! I didn't mean that we should use the SSC to build settlers, as I see that being to the Northeast of the start position, and was talking about using the second settler to found a city near the starting position (whether NW or SE of the start seems to be still in discussion) that can use all of the grassland shields to grow and produce settlers.

 

[bigfatron]

I, too, would go for a popping the hut but would like to found a separate city near to settler 1; otherwise we are late into the race to produce more settlers and more cities. It is possible this is a small island and there are no more huts to pop, in which case we need to get going making more settlers and founding new cities.

So, I would like to ensure settler 1 is well placed to found a second city AS SOON AS the capital is founded by settler 2. My preferred spot for the second city is the plains south of settler 2, as this will minimise intersection with settler 2's city and give us a high productivity location (2 grassland shields, 1 grassland, 3 plains, 2 forest, 1 hill, and some unknown stuff south of us with a 2 in three chance of a special down there (locations 1 & 2).

So my proposal:
- horseman, pops hut, then explores around the SSC site to ID all special locations
- settler 2, north, then north again
- settler 1, east then make road.

Since this is mostly about exploration and I'm about to get on a plane anyway I will leave the revered Foreign adviser to set up the polls!

 

[MonkE]

The immediate question is whether or not to pop the second hut before taking action with the settlers. I think it would be wiser to pop it now, insuring no barbs or advanced tribe, and getting a boost with either a unit or tech. Also, we would hopefully find out if we are in case #2 of the specials pattern.

 

[Leowind]

I say pop the hut now. We don't want an AT ruining a potential SSC spot, and if we get a unit, it will be a NON, and can explore to the West and potentially reveal exactly what the specials pattern is, potentially even this turn. Then I say found our capital NW of starting location, and run the second settler North to found our second (SSC?) city.