champinoman
Warlord
I can answer most of those and you can check them in the save file linked above.I think I'm going to need to look this over. I was initially for Pottery > Writing > Sailing, but wouldn't be opposed to researching AH if it did not delay running a scientist. However besides letting us run the specialist, the library also gives us a 25% bonus to beakers. At our current tech rate that would be 5 beakers, which is more than running a scientist, and our tech rate is likely to be higher when the library is built, since we'll probably be working the other gold mine. Granted we won't be getting GPP before the specialist, but the research bonus seems significant at this point in the game. Also, the point about putting those beakers into Sailing rather than AH is taken makes sense if we want to get off the island soon, but how soon willing we be building a galley?
Like I said, I think I'll have to look this over some more.
The library bonus equates to 7 beakers per turn at pop4 (2 fish and 2 gold) and is built 2 turns earlier than with AH for a bonus of 14 beakers. However, as mentioned above tech'ing AH before Writing gives a 38 beaker bonus during that tech meaning that tech'ing AH actually saves us beakers.
Regarding the question about Sailing; In my test game above I tech'ed Sailing after Writing and had sailing completed before the library was finished on turn 42(?).
If we had some guaranteed pasturizable resources I'd be all for going for AH. As it is, I think it's too much of a gamble when we could be saving time researching other things (Sailing and Maths, for instance).
If we are talking about gambling then wouldn't you agree that its highly likely we are going to need this tech on the bigger island? If so the real question is whether or not we are going to need it before meeting someone else in game that is willing to trade it. Lots of gambles being taken here.
I'm not one for risks and thats why I think its better to get AH while it has bonuses attached. Those people not wanting to tech it in hopes for a trade before its needed are taking a bigger risk imho.