Greater autonomy I don't dispute; given the recent elections and current political climate, I think it all but has to happen now. I've seen most of the sources I've been reading claim that they still find independence unlikely to happen, though.
Twenty Forty-Five: Pre-thread- 'The Years Between'
- Thread starter Immaculate
- Start date
JohannaK
Heroically Clueless
At last 48% of Catalans want more than greater autonomy, and somewhere around 10% demanded a referendum rather than expliciting whether they want independence via parliamentary elections. Now that may be not enough, but the government that has to form has the mandate to prepare for secession. Secession itself should take place at the end of the legislature (which would ideally be in less than two years)
I was aware of this when I wrote the previous response. It seems like most international observers still don't think it's going to happen, despite all of this.
Certainly up in the air, of course, though.
JohannaK
Heroically Clueless
People didnt think the USSR was going to crumble but it did. Observers can go to hell. Knowledge only gets you so far but then you need the will.
Darksaber1
Secret Emperor
Hrm, I'll see if I can put something together on either Friday or the weekend, depending on work. On vacation, so not looking at this forum too much.
Immaculate
unerring
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No rush. i'm working on some stuff off-line (e-mail me if you want the file). otherwise enjoy your vacation.
Immaculate
unerring
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NICE!
Darksaber1
Secret Emperor
Some (maybe slightly rambling) musings based on personal understanding and theories (particularly the part of the US- quite at lot of us Canadians see something like this happening).
North America:
The early stages of the campaigning for the 2016 presidential election signals the future of US politics, which drift increasingly towards radicalism in both directions. The divide in culture, political ideologies, gun control, drugs, religion, race, wealth and more drives more wedges into popular politics, with those people that hold a moderate viewpoint in either direction being increasingly outspoken and politically overpowered by the stronger viewpoints of both sides. By 2015 the practical effect of this is that the federal government in a perpetual state of deadlock on domestic policies, with strong concessions needed to accomplish almost anything. On the state level things are more successful, but limited by their powers and privileges. Factionalist groups gain increasing power during this time period, with social media allowing individuals from across the country to present more united voices in politics.
In some states marijuana is increase permitted for medical or general usage age, but other see an even greater backlash, motivated in part by increasing smuggling (both deliberate and accidental) from Canada following that countrys eventual national legalisation [a promise of the new government up here].
Europe
The increase in Russian activity in other countries (both official and invited, and covert and almost certain) reaches an eventual breaking point when Romanian, Turkish, Lithuanian and Polish military forces deploy to Ukraine to aid in the suppression of rebel activity in that country, with open war with Russia being narrowly avoided by international pressures from the EU, UN and NATO, as well as a moderate shift in popular politics within Russia. While open war is averted for the time being, tensions remain high significant fear of war remains.
Elsewhere, EU politics becomes increasingly divided, motivated by the Russian Crisis and the tide Middle-Eastern and African refugees and immigrants. Another growing issue is the status of Germany- or to be more precise, its position of dominance within Europe. While opposition remains friendly, or at least not truly hostile, it does result in France, Spain, Belgium and Italy signing a new cooperative arrangement designed to help each other increase their collective economy and influence.
South East Asia
Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines sign military agreements to enforce territorial claims against China, with foreign support from Japan, Taiwan, India and the US. Allegations persist that the Chinese reacted by backing rebel movements in the Philippines and Malaysia, although these claims remain unconfirmed.
Religions sees a gradual shift, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia and a growing number of citizens begin questioning global Islamic politics or adopting syncretic ideologies. Many Muslims (particularly outside of Aceh and other parts of northern Sumatra) feel increasingly distant from the globally dominant Middle-Eastern ideas of Islam, provoking degrees of friction as the regions Muslim attempt to assert a local identity. Connected to this movement are the growing number of non-mainstream schools of thought, as people drift away from the dominant Shafii Sunni identities and towards alternate schools, particularly traditional ones such as adat customs such as Javanese kebatinan. While this shift is largely accepted in Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines (where some claim government encouragement to reduce the influent of individual Muslim groups), it is continuing to cause pressure in Malaysia due to laws against non-Sunni practices and schools.
North America:
The early stages of the campaigning for the 2016 presidential election signals the future of US politics, which drift increasingly towards radicalism in both directions. The divide in culture, political ideologies, gun control, drugs, religion, race, wealth and more drives more wedges into popular politics, with those people that hold a moderate viewpoint in either direction being increasingly outspoken and politically overpowered by the stronger viewpoints of both sides. By 2015 the practical effect of this is that the federal government in a perpetual state of deadlock on domestic policies, with strong concessions needed to accomplish almost anything. On the state level things are more successful, but limited by their powers and privileges. Factionalist groups gain increasing power during this time period, with social media allowing individuals from across the country to present more united voices in politics.
In some states marijuana is increase permitted for medical or general usage age, but other see an even greater backlash, motivated in part by increasing smuggling (both deliberate and accidental) from Canada following that countrys eventual national legalisation [a promise of the new government up here].
Europe
The increase in Russian activity in other countries (both official and invited, and covert and almost certain) reaches an eventual breaking point when Romanian, Turkish, Lithuanian and Polish military forces deploy to Ukraine to aid in the suppression of rebel activity in that country, with open war with Russia being narrowly avoided by international pressures from the EU, UN and NATO, as well as a moderate shift in popular politics within Russia. While open war is averted for the time being, tensions remain high significant fear of war remains.
Elsewhere, EU politics becomes increasingly divided, motivated by the Russian Crisis and the tide Middle-Eastern and African refugees and immigrants. Another growing issue is the status of Germany- or to be more precise, its position of dominance within Europe. While opposition remains friendly, or at least not truly hostile, it does result in France, Spain, Belgium and Italy signing a new cooperative arrangement designed to help each other increase their collective economy and influence.
South East Asia
Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines sign military agreements to enforce territorial claims against China, with foreign support from Japan, Taiwan, India and the US. Allegations persist that the Chinese reacted by backing rebel movements in the Philippines and Malaysia, although these claims remain unconfirmed.
Religions sees a gradual shift, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia and a growing number of citizens begin questioning global Islamic politics or adopting syncretic ideologies. Many Muslims (particularly outside of Aceh and other parts of northern Sumatra) feel increasingly distant from the globally dominant Middle-Eastern ideas of Islam, provoking degrees of friction as the regions Muslim attempt to assert a local identity. Connected to this movement are the growing number of non-mainstream schools of thought, as people drift away from the dominant Shafii Sunni identities and towards alternate schools, particularly traditional ones such as adat customs such as Javanese kebatinan. While this shift is largely accepted in Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines (where some claim government encouragement to reduce the influent of individual Muslim groups), it is continuing to cause pressure in Malaysia due to laws against non-Sunni practices and schools.
Immaculate
unerring
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So one of the things i'm having difficulty is imagining where the middle-east will be in 2045. Is ISIS or something like it here to stay? If we look at Afghanistan (admittingly very different culture/geography/etc), then the answer is yes...
Also, combine with a greatly decreased oil output, and the balance of power and influence in the area will presumably change considerably right?
So what does 2045 middle-east look like?
Also, combine with a greatly decreased oil output, and the balance of power and influence in the area will presumably change considerably right?
So what does 2045 middle-east look like?
Immaculate
unerring
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Not really as a game; the submissions i was hoping for never really materialized. I'm just working on the alt-(future) history.
Seon
Not An Evil Liar
:3.
Will this be reflected in the future Terminal Velocity game if it ever goes live?
Will this be reflected in the future Terminal Velocity game if it ever goes live?
Immaculate
unerring
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Yes it will.
Immaculate
unerring
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Spoiler World Map :
Timeline
The following timeline focuses on political, social, and cultural changes in the years between 2015 and 2045.
2016-2020
Trends
- Pink tide receding in many parts of Latin America (due in many cases an inability to successfully limit large-scale corruption).
- China continues to expand its influence, particularly economically, in Africa and to lesser extent in Latin America. Chinese agribusiness, metals industries, and energy development increasingly dominate African growth.
- Daesh continues to expand its influence and power throughout Iraq, Syria, and into Jordon.
- Refugees from Africa and the Middle-East continue to make their way to Turkey and southern Europe.
- ASEAN continues integration, accelerates economic growth and influence.
India Launches First Manned Space Flight 2016
India becomes only the fourth nation – after Russia, the US and China – to independently launch humans into space.
Pakistani Nuclear Warheads Stolen (2017)
A pair of transporter launcher are attacked near Karachi by well-organized assailants later identified to be Daesh fighters. While initially hidden from the public and foreign powers, news soon leaks that the nuclear warheads of two Hatf VII Babur cruise missiles are stolen in the attack. An investigation reveals significant collusion by army officers tasked with guarding the Pakistani nuclear weapons who later reveal they acted in response to accidental US drone strikes against their immediate families.
The global news media responds to the theft with unexpected conscientiousness; despite this, global financial markets and urban housing prices respond negatively.
India Launches Second Unmanned Lunar Expedition 2017
India launches second unmanned lunar expedition Chandrayaan-2 is a probe which includes an orbiter as well as two rovers: one lander/rover built by Russia, and a second smaller rover built by India. The wheeled rovers move around the surface, picking up soil and rock samples for on-site chemical analysis.
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Rover Lands on Moon 2017
SELENE-2 is Japanese robotic rover meant to recover material from the moon and prepare the JAXA for missions further afield.
East African Federation Launches 2018
The proposed political union of the five sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state takes place on November 3rd, 2018.
The EAF capital is Arusha and its currency is the East African shilling.
Nuclear Explosions Rock Los Angeles, USA and Marseille, France (2019)
After intercepting attempted insertion of nuclear weapons into New York, Boston, Hamburg, and London, terrorists are able to successfully explode ~30-50 kt nuclear bombs in the US city of Los Angeles (epicenter the Port of Los Angeles) and the French city of Marseille (epicenter Marseille-Fos Port). Daesh soon claims responsibility for the explosions (and other unsuccessful attempts.)
The attacks kill over half a million people within 24 hours and another half million in the following months. Near-term direct and indirect costs (medical care, insurance claims, evacuation, construction) top $2 trillion in the US and €850 million in France.
Analysis of the material from the failed attacks and fallout from the Marseille and Los Angeles attacks confirm the material is from the stolen Pakistani warheads. Despite assurances that material from the stolen Pakistani warheads has now either been recovered or utilized, Daesh threatens new nuclear terrorism, panicking financial markets and populations alike.
Public attacks upon Muslim populations in the US and abroad increase dramatically and leaders call for revenge upon the terrorists.
European Union, USA Send Ground Troops to Iraq, Syria, and Jordon (2019)
In the wake of the nuclear attacks on Los Angeles and Marseille, the USA and EU send ground soldiers to the Middle East to fight Daesh directly. Russia soon joins with the multinational coalition.
Despite initial organizational and logistic difficulties and unexpectedly high initial casualties, the multi-national effort is able to disperse Daesh as a state-like caliphate within 5 months.
Within weeks Daesh reorganizes from a state-like command structure to a guerrilla-like operation, launching, obviously pre-planned, attacks throughout the Muslim world with a particular focus on Iraq, Syria, Jordon but also Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait, denouncing the ‘allies of the western crusaders’.
After hotly contested election, FARC-Colombian Ceasefire Fails 2019-2020
Between 2014 and 2018 significant peace-talks take place between FARC and the government of President Santos including the return of kidnapped hostages and crop-substitution programs in areas under their control.
Despite this, after the Democratic Center party wins widely contested elections in 2018, the ceasefire with FARC rapidly deteriorates and new violence erupts across Colombia on an unprecedented scale. After initial attacks by the Colombian military, counter-attacks by FARC indicate they had well prepared themselves for the possibility of a return to violence and include not only military and police targets but also foreign businesses, especially those involved in mineral and energy extraction.
Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece withdraw from EU (2020)
After the nuclear attacks on France and the US and attempted attacks on Germany and the UK, the European Union’s dominant members France and Germany push for both greater integration of member nation militaries and a unified ground invasion of Daesh controlled Jordon, Iraq, and Syria.
At the same time the Italian, Portuguese, Spanish, and Greek governments, parroting the Spanish Socialist Worker’s Party after the 2004 Madrid train bombings, promise their citizenry non-involvement in the middle-east.
The southern nations fail to send soldiers to the newly reorganized EU Joint Forces and, citing ‘economic consequences of union and resulting decades-old economic stagnation’, first Greece then Portugal and finally Spain and Italy, withdraw from the European Union.
Yemen’s Capital Runs Dry 2020
Saana has been drilling for water for a long time and aquifer levels have been dropping by 6 or more meters per year. Yemenis have long known that they would eventually run out of water at their capital but due to social instability, internal conflict, and worsening poverty (oil and gas incomes have dropped to nearly zero) have prevented concerted action to improve water infrastructure.
The state collapses into anarchy, with a zone of lawlessness expanding into Saudi Arabia and the Horn of Africa.
Japanese Rover Touches Down On Mars 2020
Three years behind schedule and several billion yen over-budget, the Mars Exploration and Life-Organism Search orbiter finally arrives at Mars, deploying four associated surface rovers.
2021-2025
Trends
- Global food prices continue to rise in response to rising transport costs and increased demand.
- Iran continues to expand its influence in southern Iraq, Lebanon, and parts of Syria.
- Middle eastern oil production begins to contract and global fossil fuel prices see dramatic increases.
Multinational military alliances from Europe and the USA continue to occupy much of the Middle-East. 2021-2025
The war on Daesh enters a prolonged state of occupation similar to the on-again off-again US presence in Afghanistan. Where the coalition is not Daesh returns, striking at the allies and sympathizers of the ‘crusaders’, co-opting local security apparatuses and enacting their own brand of government. Where the coalition is strong, they mount hit and run guerilla attacks. After nearly 20 years of guerilla warfare in one form or another and on multiple continents, the Daesh fighters are increasingly well-trained, motivated, and organized.
With attacks in Saudi Arabia, and the gulf emirates, the Euro/Eurasian/US coalition is increasingly occupied on a broad front stretching from Africa to Afghanistan.
And even as people in the US, France, and Germany recall the nuclear attacks on Los Angeles and Marseilles, it is obvious that occupation of the middle-east is expensive in both treasure and lives and unsustainable. Calls for withdrawal are especially vocal in Scandinavia and the eastern EU nations.
Can21 Fungal Blight Devastates North American Wheat and Barley (2021-2022)
A particularly virulent (and resistance gene penetrative) strain of Fusarium head blight (FHB) devastates Canadian and American wheat and barley during 2021 and 2022, and to a lesser extent Northern European fields in 2022.
Rightwing Ecuadorian and Colombian Efforts to Counter Marxists Guerilla Movements Face Increasing Popular Resistance 2021-2023
The Colombian response to FARC by a government many consider illegitimate drives popular support for the leftist organization. What are widely perceived to be overly brutal responses by the military to suppress it also contribute to its growing popularity.
In Ecuador, the reversal of the pink tide has brought new conservatives to power but left many frustrated with increasing Chinese influence in business and politics, empowering the various leftists guerilla operations in the region including the Popular Combatants Group (PCG), the Revolutionary Militia of the People, the Marxist-Leninist Party of Ecuador, and the Alfarista Liberation Army. Ultimately the FARC exploits this trend to unite with the Ecuadorian armed leftist resistance, creating an international leftist resistance and renaming themselves the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias del Pueblo (FARP).
Venezuela’s socialist President Rosa Virginia Chávez is an outspoken critic of decades old American and newer Chinese influence in Latin America and of the increasing brutality of the Colombian government’s response to the FARP.
As the FARP resistance in Colombia and Ecuador grows, rumors increasingly circulate of Venezuelan support for the resistance movement. Widely denied, the Venezuelan government has repeatedly called for a new cease-fire.
The Ecuadorian government, realizing that popular support is turning against them, suspends elections granting the president exceptional emergency powers.
ExoMars Rover Touches Down on Mars 2022
Working in conjunction with the Russian Federal Space Agency, the EU’s ESA ExoMars probe arrives at Mars after a 9-month flight. Made up of an orbital unit to study the Martian atmosphere and a drill-capable rover, the rover's primary objective is to search for any signs of microbial life on Mars, past or present.
Eurasian Union Adopts Common Currency, Joint Military Structure (2022)
Based on the Eurasian Economic Union of 2015, the Eurasian Union (EAU) expands the economic and political cooperative to include further integration. A common currency and shared official language (Russian) is matched to a united military superstructure. The collective security organization is integrated into the Eurasian Union and its membership expanded to include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
While Russian activity in Ukraine proved costly diplomatically in the west and Europe for the federation, ultimately it was very successful in projecting influence in the near abroad and successes and involvement as part of a larger cooperative group in Syria helped paint the EUA in positive colors.
While the EAU is not welcome by the E.U., China, or the U.S., it has proven very popular domestically.
Coup in Nigeria Promises Return of Democracy 2022
When the incumbent president fails to hold elections as scheduled, a coup by a senior army general, Abaeze Chukwu ushers in a new military despot.
Promising cooperation against ‘Islamic terrorism’ and the return of democracy, General Chukwu quickly gains the support of the US and Europe despite the violent overthrow of democracy.
Chukwu soon initiates systematic attacks upon Islamic populations in the north as part of the greater ‘war on jihadist nuclear terrorists’
First Chinese Astronauts Arrive at “Chinese Large Modular Space Station” 2022
Between 2020 and 2022, China launches a series of three modules which together make up the ‘large modular space station’. For the next 10 years three Chinese astronauts will make their homes here on a permanent rotational basis.
Nigerian Annexes Benin 2023
In a move reminiscent of the Austrian Anschluss, Nigeria invades its neighbor Benin after the later fails to hold a plebiscite on unification (which many point out was probably organized by clandestine Nigerian agents anyway).
Local media, firmly in control of the Nigerian military forces, depict cheering crowds welcoming the Nigerians. The ECOMOG is surprisingly quiet, perhaps realizing it has little military means of resisting the expanded Nigerian military and few allies willing to intervene.
Scandinavian, Eastern European Nations Withdraw from the European Union 2023-2028
The further dissolution of the European Union has multiple causes.
The first is the disparate support for continued action in the Middle East. With the occupation of the middle-east ongoing seemingly without end and faced with multiple attacks on both its forces in occupied territory and at home, support for continued operations against Daesh is dissolving rapidly outside France and Germany. And so while France, Germany, Britain and their US and Eurasian allies remain steadfastly dedicated to the destruction of Daesh, most other EU nations are increasing chaffing under the 2020 military unification laws derived, perhaps hastily, in response to the nuclear attacks that sees their soldiers forced to fight in the middle-east.
The second reason is the continuing poor economic performance of many nations within the European Union. For many the perception is that the common currency and trade bloc only reinforces French and Germany dominance by underwriting their production with an artificially low currency while their own nations face artificially high currency values and economic dominance by the central powers.
Finally, the successful secession by Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Greece have proved that secession is not necessarily the economic boogeyman it had been made out to be. And while these nations have faced increasing difficulty in importing consumer goods, their job sector and exports perform solidly better than most members of the EU.
Between 2023 and 2028 Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Sweden all leave the EU.
The remaining members, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom reaffirm their membership and commitment to union. Increasing centralization is the talk of the day and only the UK seems unenthusiastic.
Attacks on Chinese Businesses in Central America Claimed by FARP 2024
Revealing an increasing willingness to strike against what they call ‘neo-colonials’ and ‘predatory capitalism’, the FARP launches a series of attacks against Chinese-operated mineral and biotech companies in Honduras and El Salvador.
Massive Flooding in Bangladesh Leads to Massive Refugee Crisis 2024
Extreme rains and rising sea levels lead to unprecedented flooding in Bangladesh, displacing tens of millions of people and sending refugees into neighboring India and Burma.
Caribbean Community Moves Towards Greater Integration 2024
The Second Treaty of Chaguaramas sees CARICOM further integrate as a united translational organization with expanded economic cooperation.
Nigeria Invades Cameroon 2025-2026
In what is later revealed to be a Nigerian clandestine operation, the English-speaking south of Cameroon has, in the years 2023-2025 increasingly agitated for decentralization and regional empowerment, even going so far as to mount military attacks upon police and government infrastructure.
Responding to pleas to ‘end the northern oppression’ Nigeria declares war on Cameroon in May 2025. Cameroon is not Benin however and the war drags on. It is not until July of 2026 that the Cameroon government capitulates.
Throughout the war ECOMOG and the international community repeatedly condemn Nigerian actions but fail to act in any concrete way.
Immaculate
unerring
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2026-2030
Trends
Popular Uprising in Honduras and El Salvador 2026-2028
With Honduras still under the control of the widely condemned illegitimate government of Presidential dictator Hernández and El Salvadorian politics in the pocket of US and increasingly Chinese business interests, FARP resistance across Colombia, Ecuador and now locally has galvanized domestic resistance.
Resistance fighters aligning themselves with FARP but drawn from the local populations begin making attacks against government, police, and foreign business interests across both nations. Within two short years these fighters are well armed and organized, internationally funded and supplied, and hold extensive territory outside the cities.
The USA, focused on the Middle East and Daesh, provides material support to the embattled governments but proves unwilling to send soldiers. And with most other nations not recognizing the Honduran government, that is all the support they get.
Daesh Popularity Soars in Wake of Resistance to the West and Crusader Invasions 2026-2030
After nearly three decades of resistance to US or multi-national troops across central Asia and the Middle-East, Daesh is increasingly transforming into a popular transnational political movement. It continues to provide services like education and food relief where it can operate openly and is more selective in its targets where it cannot. The multinational coalition, faced with resistance on a huge scale and the increasing apathy of the governments of local allies faced with populations increasingly against western ‘occupation’ must also scale back its operations if for no other reason than to limit financial exposure and loss of life.
At the same time Daesh attacks in the USA, EU, and EAU prove that it has capacity to punish its enemies everywhere, appealing to more militant-minded followers.
Ultimately the war for the hearts and minds of the Sunni Muslim base is being won by Daesh.
Even in France and the US where support for occupation is highest, there is mounting pressure to find a local ally that can assume the burden of policing the middle-east and preventing further terrorist attacks.
At the same time, Iran and it Shia allies have increased their hold on southern Iraq and Lebanon, creating zones of ‘security’ to protect the populations against Daesh fighters or western crusaders.
Rebels Topple Honduran, El Salvadorian Capitals 2028
In March of 2028, the Hunduran capital of Tegucigalpa is captured by FARP-backed leftists rebels and Juan Hernández placed under arrest. In October San Salvador follows.
The leftist rebels declare the Central American Socialist States which is immediately recognized by two powers, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
Lake Chad Dries Up 2029
After years of overuse (irrigation, humun and livestock consumption, etc), several successive years of drought finally culminate in the almost entire drying of the lake. With 30 million people depending on the lake for agriculture, drinking water, livestock, fishing and other purposes the disappearance of the lake is having significant destabilizing effects on the war-torn region. Damage to wildlife cannot be measured.
Nigeria Invades Chad and Niger 2029
The Nigerian army, under orders from “President” Abaeze Chukwu, in response to a mounting refugee crisis in the north of Nigeria and increasing attacks by Daesh-backed militants upon the Nigerian population (presumably in response to Nigerian actions against Muslim in the north of the state) invades both Chad and Niger at the height of the 2029 drought.
The US supports the Nigerian government, seeing in them an ally against Daesh in Africa and while providing weapons and operational support, also provides food and water. The Nigerians turn water into a weapon of war, destroying wells and oases throughout enemy territory with drone-delivered bombs and bringing their own water to assist in the surrender of local populations.
By the end of 2029 both the Niger and Chad governments (both military despotisms) have surrendered.
What follows can be called nothing less than genocide. Muslim “terrorist conspirators” from the occupied territories are herded north on long marches through the Sahara and into Libya and Sudan. Many die along the way.
Despite these horrors the EU and the US remain silent; in the wake of the nuclear attacks, public sentiment there is solidly anti-Islamic. Daesh promises vengeance.
United Kingdom Leaves the European Union 2029
As the European Union centralizes further, the United Kingdom finally follows the lead of much of the rest of Europe and secedes from the union.
Relations remain good between the UK and the increasingly centralized EU.
Guatemala Declares War on Central American Socialist States 2030
Backed by US and Chinese private business interests, the Colombian, Ecuadorian, Mexican and US governments, Guatemala declares war on the Central American Socialist States. They cite the ‘illegality’ of their rule and the war-aim of reinstating the rightful governance of separate and sovereign Honduras and El Salvadorian states.
2031-2035
Trends
Ummah Al’Salaam Movement Arises Within Daesh 2031-2033
The skies are filled with drones. The streets are filled with Daesh and western informants and spies. Bombs and missiles strike anywhere at anytime. Unemployment is cripplingly high. Some areas lack clean water or proper sewage control and education is fragmentary and inconsistent. The people of the Middle East have had enough.
And so as the US, EU, and the EAU continue to hope for a regional ally such as Jordon or Saudi Arabia to shoulder the responsibility of policing Daesh and preventing terrorism, a potential ally arrives from an unexpected corner. Within Daesh and the population itself a new movement arises, the Ummah Al’ Salaam. Transnational and dedicated to a united Sunni Muslim Arab identity, they also advocate for an end of the violence and war with the western powers should they leave the region.
The coalition is not sure how to respond, while the Ummah Al’Salaam are obviously a very powerful political force in the region with widespread grassroots support, they are not a nation state and to support them would be to upset the entire balance of the Middle East since WW1. Additionally, the Ummah Al’Saalam have promised to operate their state much like Daesh did in the 20-teens, including the use of Sharia law, something the EU especially is not keen to accept.
And yet the opportunity for peace and an end to the expensive occupation is too great not to consider. Diplomats meet and have some limited early successes but these are limited and evaporate quickly. The Ummah Al’Saalam movement faces strong opposition from traditionalists within Daesh and political jockeying continues for some time.
Several middle-eastern countries, especially where the Islamic brotherhood is well entrenched, including Egypt and Palestine, and, unexpectedly, the Jordonian crown, throw their full weight behind the Ummah Al’Salaam movement and by 2028, it seems that the Ummah Al’Salaam has arrived as the dominant political voice.
Central American Socialist States Annexes Guatemala 2031-33
While Guatemala initially makes significant headway against the Central American Socialist State, the US-China trade crisis soon inverts the power relationship. With continued support from leftist governments in Nicaragua and Venezuela and weapons and organization from the FARP in Ecuador and Colombia, 2032 to 2033 see rapid gains by the CASS. Without Chinese or American support, the Guatemalan government surrenders in 2033.
CASS forces are greeted in the capital by cheering crowds.
US-China Trade War Upends Global Power Structure and Ushers in Worldwide Recession 2032-2035
In response to a legal dispute over newly-discovered offshore oil near the Philippine Palawan Island, the US and China enter into a long-anticipated showdown over the South Pacific.
China pushes back against American economic and diplomatic pressure by selling off nearly 5% of its publicly held US currency reserves. This, in documents later declassified after the trade war, was meant to serve as a warning, of the capacity the Chinese government had in disrupting the US economy and a means of displaying its strategic commitment to its ‘near abroad’. Unfortunately for the US and the world, the sell-off sparks panic in global markets where it has long been recognized that the US dollar, long overvalued due to its appeal as the ‘world reserve currency’, may not be worth nearly as much as it has been. Soon private lenders are selling US debt and foreign governments and banks with US currency are selling their reserves. Panic ensues; major investors in the US dollar like Chinese and Indian banks must decide if they will sell now further devaluing what they cannot rid themselves of or hold their dollars knowing they may be losing value dramatically in the near future. Ultimately the banks act conservatively, choosing to rid themselves of an investment suddenly very risky to hold and governments are forced to follow. In five weeks the US dollar loses almost 55% of its value. For many analysts the loss reflects a long-overdue response to US overspending and loss of confidence in the dollar as the reserve currency.
The US government views the sell-off initiated by the Chinese government as economic warfare and freezes Chinese banking assets, and working with its allies internationally, manages to construct a framework of import sanctions and punitive tariffs against Chinese goods. China, which just saw much of its reserve currencies devalue drastically, is now faced with the sudden loss of much of the international market for its goods.
With the economic battering of the globe’s two largest markets, the world economy slips into recession (or further into recession for the governments of much of Europe and Japan). With the Chinese and the US public (and politicians) both blaming the other nation, public demand for a ‘strong response’ builds. Neither party seems willing to initiate actual military conflict but carrier groups of both nations are deployed to the south Pacific. Responding to the military posturing, fear of nuclear war between the nations has the public stockpiling canned goods and in some cases fleeing the cities. Rhetoric builds when the Eastern African Federation, working in conjunction with the US navy seizes a Chinese supertanker off its shores in response to ‘unlawful dumping’.
Cyberattacks by ’independent third parties’ with no official ties to either government are launched against the communications infrastructure of both nations. These activities culminate in 2034 with attacks by ‘independent third parties’ using experimental Chinese military computing hardware based on direct neural interface. These hackers, experiencing the Internet purely in virtual reality, soon render almost all existing Internet security obsolete and swing the communications battle solidly in favor of China. Damage to the US business, and especially financial sectors is extensive.
At the same time, private security consultants with deniable links to both the US and Chinese governments are striking at economic and soft-target investments throughout the globe, focusing on those areas with more unstable governments or reduced central authority. Much of Africa, and indeed the world, becomes a sort of shadow battlefield for the Chinese-US trade wars with private commandoes making attacks on mining, agricultural, and energy investments in over 30 different nations.
Ultimately the trade and shadow war proves so decisively destructive for both parties as well as for the world that when ASEAN offers to mediate a compromise settlement both parties are eager to accept the proposal. The Palawan oilfields are ultimately decided as an ASEAN asset with financial remuneration paid to both China and the US from proceeds of oil sales.
Ultimately while no real outright battles are fought between US and China the Palawan crisis proves disastrously destructive for both nations, so much so that neither can be considered the dominant superpowers they had been just three years ago.
Middle-East Redrawn to Accommodate Ummah Al’Salaam 2033-2034
The US-China trade crisis and resulting global recession have left western powers with no option but to withdraw forces from the Middle East and focus their wealth and influence elsewhere. In the vacuum that results, the heads of many Sunni Muslim nations including Syria, Lebanon, Jordon, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Oman meet in Cairo to draft a new agreement. Also present are representatives of the Shiite communities in these nations, Iran, and of course, the EU, EAU, and US.
The issue is the formation of a new, united, Arab state that would stretch from Africa to Iran, from Turkey to Yemen. Many governments, especially Egypt which had been spared much of the Daesh fighting and western occupation, are eager to form the new super-state, seeing in it a chance to rise as a power similar to the EU, EAU, or ASEAN. Other governments, such as the semi-autonomous Kurdish state or parts of Lebanon with majority Shiite populations are less enthusiastic.
Ultimately the agreement passes and there can be no denial that the worsening economic and global anxiety due to the US-China showdown has a major role to place in the consensus.
While most Middle Eastern nations agree to form the union Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar, and Yemen are too divided and for now remain independent.
For Palestine it is the chance they have long sought and with the US and it allies too fatigued, and pre-occupied with China, Israel is forced to allow its Palestinian territories to join with the Ummah Al’Salaam.
Nicaragua Ascends to the Central American Socialist States 2034
After years of sponsoring the CASS financially, militarily, and organizationally, Nicaragua completes it commitment to the risen CASS by ascending to its union.
Perhaps in recognition of Nicaragua’s long-term support, CASS recognizes its capital as Managua and adopts many elements of the Nicaraguan government for its own.
Caribbean Community Forms Federal Union 2034
In response to the growing instability in North and Central America and an increased need for cooperation in the face of more and more frequent extreme storms, CARICOM members agree to a federal union, abandoning their individual sovereignty to form a single united nation.
Its capital is Georgetown and its four official languages are English, Spanish, Dutch, and French.
Iranian and Ummah Al’Salaam Backed Plebiscites in Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar, and Yemen Divide the Middle-East into Two 2034-2035
With the world increasingly destabilizing and the influence of both the Iran and especially the Ummah Al’Salaam rising dramatically, a number of foreign-funded popular plebiscites are held across the Middle East and the remainder of the region is divided, often with military involvement, into two camps, denunciation by local governments be damned.
While several nations including the US are quick to condemn what is effectively forcible, though generally non-violent annexation by the two Middle Eastern powers, others such as the EAU, the UK and the EU can clearly see how the wind is blowing and offer only token resistance to the union.
ASEAN Forms Federal Union 2035
The last two decades has seen ASEAN increasingly united both economically and diplomatically, forming common cause on the world stage more often than not. With the rise of India and China and the increasing tension of US interests in the Pacific, this has only accelerated.
The trade crisis between the US and China that sees the South Pacific turn into a potential battlefield for the superpowers carrier groups and nuclear submarines and overflown by tens of thousands of drones accelerates that union and in 2035 ASEAN announces the formation of a common, united, federation. The new state has a single military structure and a single currency and operates under direction from its capital in New Bangkok but is otherwise highly decentralized with multiple official languages, ‘state’ operated education and health systems and highly deregulated religious laws.
The union makes ASEAN the fourth largest economy after the European Union, India, and the Eurasian Union.
Mexico Declares Victory Against Drug Cartels 2035
The Mexican government’s war on the drug cartels has taken on an increasingly desperate form in the last two decades as the various drug cartels struggle to prove which is most brutal while at the same time building public support with civil services in territories they control.
With the CASS gaining influence in Central America, Mexico’s central government has remained solidly right of center and associations between the drug cartels and socialist movements in Mexico have ensures that the government has been able to paint the left and the drug cartels with the same bloody brush.
As the war continued and the US grew increasingly concerned by rising leftist institutions in South and Central America, Mexico was able to access increasingly impressive military hardware from the US and its allies and develop significantly more sophisticated policies for countering the cartels.
But ultimately as long as there was a thirst for Mexico’s drugs north of the border, no amount of military hardware or government rhetoric would completely defeat the cartels. So when the US economy plunged in the mid-2030s, an opportunity appeared. The cartels, without a major source of their income suddenly lost their capacity to provide public services or to hire soldiers or corrupt officials, at least not on the scale they previously had.
Within three years, Mexico’s government and army were once again active in regions that had not been for years, re-establishing themselves in regions that had been ‘no go’ for decades or more. Many of the cartel bosses were killed or arrested and their soldiers were seeking employment in the Mexican military.
In 2035, though it was obviously an optimistic statement, Mexico was declaring it had ‘won the war against the cartels’. There was increasing evidence that they were right and as the second half of the decade arrived, issues like the economy, trade, periodic drought, and border security became much more important than the cartels.
Peru Invades Ecuador 2035
The Peruvian government invades Ecuador, citing ‘increasing regional instability due to leftist uprising north of the border’ and a need to ‘bring stability to the region’.
Trends
- Global food prices continue to rise as population expands and hard biophysical limits to food production are reached.
- Private and public debt rising across US and Europe as middle-class continues to shrink and corporations discover increasingly complex mechanisms to avoid tax payments.
- Production of oil in the Middle East is contracting further. Combined with widespread instability from the ongoing Daesh resistance and western occupation, the governments of Saudi Arabia and the gulf emirates are rapidly losing economic and political influence, suffering widespread ‘brain drain’ as those who can find employment elsewhere do.
- Increasing drought and desertification leads to climate refugee exodus from North Africa. Colossal storms rock the Caribbean, Indian ocean states, and eastern North America.
Popular Uprising in Honduras and El Salvador 2026-2028
With Honduras still under the control of the widely condemned illegitimate government of Presidential dictator Hernández and El Salvadorian politics in the pocket of US and increasingly Chinese business interests, FARP resistance across Colombia, Ecuador and now locally has galvanized domestic resistance.
Resistance fighters aligning themselves with FARP but drawn from the local populations begin making attacks against government, police, and foreign business interests across both nations. Within two short years these fighters are well armed and organized, internationally funded and supplied, and hold extensive territory outside the cities.
The USA, focused on the Middle East and Daesh, provides material support to the embattled governments but proves unwilling to send soldiers. And with most other nations not recognizing the Honduran government, that is all the support they get.
Daesh Popularity Soars in Wake of Resistance to the West and Crusader Invasions 2026-2030
After nearly three decades of resistance to US or multi-national troops across central Asia and the Middle-East, Daesh is increasingly transforming into a popular transnational political movement. It continues to provide services like education and food relief where it can operate openly and is more selective in its targets where it cannot. The multinational coalition, faced with resistance on a huge scale and the increasing apathy of the governments of local allies faced with populations increasingly against western ‘occupation’ must also scale back its operations if for no other reason than to limit financial exposure and loss of life.
At the same time Daesh attacks in the USA, EU, and EAU prove that it has capacity to punish its enemies everywhere, appealing to more militant-minded followers.
Ultimately the war for the hearts and minds of the Sunni Muslim base is being won by Daesh.
Even in France and the US where support for occupation is highest, there is mounting pressure to find a local ally that can assume the burden of policing the middle-east and preventing further terrorist attacks.
At the same time, Iran and it Shia allies have increased their hold on southern Iraq and Lebanon, creating zones of ‘security’ to protect the populations against Daesh fighters or western crusaders.
Rebels Topple Honduran, El Salvadorian Capitals 2028
In March of 2028, the Hunduran capital of Tegucigalpa is captured by FARP-backed leftists rebels and Juan Hernández placed under arrest. In October San Salvador follows.
The leftist rebels declare the Central American Socialist States which is immediately recognized by two powers, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
Lake Chad Dries Up 2029
After years of overuse (irrigation, humun and livestock consumption, etc), several successive years of drought finally culminate in the almost entire drying of the lake. With 30 million people depending on the lake for agriculture, drinking water, livestock, fishing and other purposes the disappearance of the lake is having significant destabilizing effects on the war-torn region. Damage to wildlife cannot be measured.
Nigeria Invades Chad and Niger 2029
The Nigerian army, under orders from “President” Abaeze Chukwu, in response to a mounting refugee crisis in the north of Nigeria and increasing attacks by Daesh-backed militants upon the Nigerian population (presumably in response to Nigerian actions against Muslim in the north of the state) invades both Chad and Niger at the height of the 2029 drought.
The US supports the Nigerian government, seeing in them an ally against Daesh in Africa and while providing weapons and operational support, also provides food and water. The Nigerians turn water into a weapon of war, destroying wells and oases throughout enemy territory with drone-delivered bombs and bringing their own water to assist in the surrender of local populations.
By the end of 2029 both the Niger and Chad governments (both military despotisms) have surrendered.
What follows can be called nothing less than genocide. Muslim “terrorist conspirators” from the occupied territories are herded north on long marches through the Sahara and into Libya and Sudan. Many die along the way.
Despite these horrors the EU and the US remain silent; in the wake of the nuclear attacks, public sentiment there is solidly anti-Islamic. Daesh promises vengeance.
United Kingdom Leaves the European Union 2029
As the European Union centralizes further, the United Kingdom finally follows the lead of much of the rest of Europe and secedes from the union.
Relations remain good between the UK and the increasingly centralized EU.
Guatemala Declares War on Central American Socialist States 2030
Backed by US and Chinese private business interests, the Colombian, Ecuadorian, Mexican and US governments, Guatemala declares war on the Central American Socialist States. They cite the ‘illegality’ of their rule and the war-aim of reinstating the rightful governance of separate and sovereign Honduras and El Salvadorian states.
2031-2035
Trends
- Rising food and energy prices translate to economic stagnation for many nations.
- Droughts strike Mexico.
- Droughts in Spain and Italy lead to refugee crisis in EU and Poland.
- Open warfare between Ecuador-Colombia and FARP intensifies.
- Middle eastern oil production contraction continues. Unemployment is soaring in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.
- Anti-Islamic laws are enacted in Nigeria.
Ummah Al’Salaam Movement Arises Within Daesh 2031-2033
The skies are filled with drones. The streets are filled with Daesh and western informants and spies. Bombs and missiles strike anywhere at anytime. Unemployment is cripplingly high. Some areas lack clean water or proper sewage control and education is fragmentary and inconsistent. The people of the Middle East have had enough.
And so as the US, EU, and the EAU continue to hope for a regional ally such as Jordon or Saudi Arabia to shoulder the responsibility of policing Daesh and preventing terrorism, a potential ally arrives from an unexpected corner. Within Daesh and the population itself a new movement arises, the Ummah Al’ Salaam. Transnational and dedicated to a united Sunni Muslim Arab identity, they also advocate for an end of the violence and war with the western powers should they leave the region.
The coalition is not sure how to respond, while the Ummah Al’Salaam are obviously a very powerful political force in the region with widespread grassroots support, they are not a nation state and to support them would be to upset the entire balance of the Middle East since WW1. Additionally, the Ummah Al’Saalam have promised to operate their state much like Daesh did in the 20-teens, including the use of Sharia law, something the EU especially is not keen to accept.
And yet the opportunity for peace and an end to the expensive occupation is too great not to consider. Diplomats meet and have some limited early successes but these are limited and evaporate quickly. The Ummah Al’Saalam movement faces strong opposition from traditionalists within Daesh and political jockeying continues for some time.
Several middle-eastern countries, especially where the Islamic brotherhood is well entrenched, including Egypt and Palestine, and, unexpectedly, the Jordonian crown, throw their full weight behind the Ummah Al’Salaam movement and by 2028, it seems that the Ummah Al’Salaam has arrived as the dominant political voice.
Central American Socialist States Annexes Guatemala 2031-33
While Guatemala initially makes significant headway against the Central American Socialist State, the US-China trade crisis soon inverts the power relationship. With continued support from leftist governments in Nicaragua and Venezuela and weapons and organization from the FARP in Ecuador and Colombia, 2032 to 2033 see rapid gains by the CASS. Without Chinese or American support, the Guatemalan government surrenders in 2033.
CASS forces are greeted in the capital by cheering crowds.
US-China Trade War Upends Global Power Structure and Ushers in Worldwide Recession 2032-2035
In response to a legal dispute over newly-discovered offshore oil near the Philippine Palawan Island, the US and China enter into a long-anticipated showdown over the South Pacific.
China pushes back against American economic and diplomatic pressure by selling off nearly 5% of its publicly held US currency reserves. This, in documents later declassified after the trade war, was meant to serve as a warning, of the capacity the Chinese government had in disrupting the US economy and a means of displaying its strategic commitment to its ‘near abroad’. Unfortunately for the US and the world, the sell-off sparks panic in global markets where it has long been recognized that the US dollar, long overvalued due to its appeal as the ‘world reserve currency’, may not be worth nearly as much as it has been. Soon private lenders are selling US debt and foreign governments and banks with US currency are selling their reserves. Panic ensues; major investors in the US dollar like Chinese and Indian banks must decide if they will sell now further devaluing what they cannot rid themselves of or hold their dollars knowing they may be losing value dramatically in the near future. Ultimately the banks act conservatively, choosing to rid themselves of an investment suddenly very risky to hold and governments are forced to follow. In five weeks the US dollar loses almost 55% of its value. For many analysts the loss reflects a long-overdue response to US overspending and loss of confidence in the dollar as the reserve currency.
The US government views the sell-off initiated by the Chinese government as economic warfare and freezes Chinese banking assets, and working with its allies internationally, manages to construct a framework of import sanctions and punitive tariffs against Chinese goods. China, which just saw much of its reserve currencies devalue drastically, is now faced with the sudden loss of much of the international market for its goods.
With the economic battering of the globe’s two largest markets, the world economy slips into recession (or further into recession for the governments of much of Europe and Japan). With the Chinese and the US public (and politicians) both blaming the other nation, public demand for a ‘strong response’ builds. Neither party seems willing to initiate actual military conflict but carrier groups of both nations are deployed to the south Pacific. Responding to the military posturing, fear of nuclear war between the nations has the public stockpiling canned goods and in some cases fleeing the cities. Rhetoric builds when the Eastern African Federation, working in conjunction with the US navy seizes a Chinese supertanker off its shores in response to ‘unlawful dumping’.
Cyberattacks by ’independent third parties’ with no official ties to either government are launched against the communications infrastructure of both nations. These activities culminate in 2034 with attacks by ‘independent third parties’ using experimental Chinese military computing hardware based on direct neural interface. These hackers, experiencing the Internet purely in virtual reality, soon render almost all existing Internet security obsolete and swing the communications battle solidly in favor of China. Damage to the US business, and especially financial sectors is extensive.
At the same time, private security consultants with deniable links to both the US and Chinese governments are striking at economic and soft-target investments throughout the globe, focusing on those areas with more unstable governments or reduced central authority. Much of Africa, and indeed the world, becomes a sort of shadow battlefield for the Chinese-US trade wars with private commandoes making attacks on mining, agricultural, and energy investments in over 30 different nations.
Ultimately the trade and shadow war proves so decisively destructive for both parties as well as for the world that when ASEAN offers to mediate a compromise settlement both parties are eager to accept the proposal. The Palawan oilfields are ultimately decided as an ASEAN asset with financial remuneration paid to both China and the US from proceeds of oil sales.
Ultimately while no real outright battles are fought between US and China the Palawan crisis proves disastrously destructive for both nations, so much so that neither can be considered the dominant superpowers they had been just three years ago.
Middle-East Redrawn to Accommodate Ummah Al’Salaam 2033-2034
The US-China trade crisis and resulting global recession have left western powers with no option but to withdraw forces from the Middle East and focus their wealth and influence elsewhere. In the vacuum that results, the heads of many Sunni Muslim nations including Syria, Lebanon, Jordon, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, and Oman meet in Cairo to draft a new agreement. Also present are representatives of the Shiite communities in these nations, Iran, and of course, the EU, EAU, and US.
The issue is the formation of a new, united, Arab state that would stretch from Africa to Iran, from Turkey to Yemen. Many governments, especially Egypt which had been spared much of the Daesh fighting and western occupation, are eager to form the new super-state, seeing in it a chance to rise as a power similar to the EU, EAU, or ASEAN. Other governments, such as the semi-autonomous Kurdish state or parts of Lebanon with majority Shiite populations are less enthusiastic.
Ultimately the agreement passes and there can be no denial that the worsening economic and global anxiety due to the US-China showdown has a major role to place in the consensus.
While most Middle Eastern nations agree to form the union Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar, and Yemen are too divided and for now remain independent.
For Palestine it is the chance they have long sought and with the US and it allies too fatigued, and pre-occupied with China, Israel is forced to allow its Palestinian territories to join with the Ummah Al’Salaam.
Nicaragua Ascends to the Central American Socialist States 2034
After years of sponsoring the CASS financially, militarily, and organizationally, Nicaragua completes it commitment to the risen CASS by ascending to its union.
Perhaps in recognition of Nicaragua’s long-term support, CASS recognizes its capital as Managua and adopts many elements of the Nicaraguan government for its own.
Caribbean Community Forms Federal Union 2034
In response to the growing instability in North and Central America and an increased need for cooperation in the face of more and more frequent extreme storms, CARICOM members agree to a federal union, abandoning their individual sovereignty to form a single united nation.
Its capital is Georgetown and its four official languages are English, Spanish, Dutch, and French.
Iranian and Ummah Al’Salaam Backed Plebiscites in Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar, and Yemen Divide the Middle-East into Two 2034-2035
With the world increasingly destabilizing and the influence of both the Iran and especially the Ummah Al’Salaam rising dramatically, a number of foreign-funded popular plebiscites are held across the Middle East and the remainder of the region is divided, often with military involvement, into two camps, denunciation by local governments be damned.
While several nations including the US are quick to condemn what is effectively forcible, though generally non-violent annexation by the two Middle Eastern powers, others such as the EAU, the UK and the EU can clearly see how the wind is blowing and offer only token resistance to the union.
ASEAN Forms Federal Union 2035
The last two decades has seen ASEAN increasingly united both economically and diplomatically, forming common cause on the world stage more often than not. With the rise of India and China and the increasing tension of US interests in the Pacific, this has only accelerated.
The trade crisis between the US and China that sees the South Pacific turn into a potential battlefield for the superpowers carrier groups and nuclear submarines and overflown by tens of thousands of drones accelerates that union and in 2035 ASEAN announces the formation of a common, united, federation. The new state has a single military structure and a single currency and operates under direction from its capital in New Bangkok but is otherwise highly decentralized with multiple official languages, ‘state’ operated education and health systems and highly deregulated religious laws.
The union makes ASEAN the fourth largest economy after the European Union, India, and the Eurasian Union.
Mexico Declares Victory Against Drug Cartels 2035
The Mexican government’s war on the drug cartels has taken on an increasingly desperate form in the last two decades as the various drug cartels struggle to prove which is most brutal while at the same time building public support with civil services in territories they control.
With the CASS gaining influence in Central America, Mexico’s central government has remained solidly right of center and associations between the drug cartels and socialist movements in Mexico have ensures that the government has been able to paint the left and the drug cartels with the same bloody brush.
As the war continued and the US grew increasingly concerned by rising leftist institutions in South and Central America, Mexico was able to access increasingly impressive military hardware from the US and its allies and develop significantly more sophisticated policies for countering the cartels.
But ultimately as long as there was a thirst for Mexico’s drugs north of the border, no amount of military hardware or government rhetoric would completely defeat the cartels. So when the US economy plunged in the mid-2030s, an opportunity appeared. The cartels, without a major source of their income suddenly lost their capacity to provide public services or to hire soldiers or corrupt officials, at least not on the scale they previously had.
Within three years, Mexico’s government and army were once again active in regions that had not been for years, re-establishing themselves in regions that had been ‘no go’ for decades or more. Many of the cartel bosses were killed or arrested and their soldiers were seeking employment in the Mexican military.
In 2035, though it was obviously an optimistic statement, Mexico was declaring it had ‘won the war against the cartels’. There was increasing evidence that they were right and as the second half of the decade arrived, issues like the economy, trade, periodic drought, and border security became much more important than the cartels.
Peru Invades Ecuador 2035
The Peruvian government invades Ecuador, citing ‘increasing regional instability due to leftist uprising north of the border’ and a need to ‘bring stability to the region’.
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2036-2040
Trends
Ecuador Signs Peace Agreements with FARP 2036
With the FARP increasingly in control of much of the countryside and the Ecuadorian south and airspace solidly in the hands of Peru, the Ecuadorian government hastily signs a peace agreement with FARP that would see elections return to the nation after nearly 13 years of ‘emergency measures’.
Despite ongoing war with Peru, elections proceed and FARP representatives overwhelmingly win the people’s support.
Even as Ecuador unites around its new government, Peru makes rapid inroads into Ecuadorian territory.
EAU annexes Turkmenistan 2036
Responding to what it claims are ‘cross border raids’ by government-sponsored private security contractors working to disrupt southern EAU water projects (of which there is some truth) and ‘growing demand for EAU-based security’ (of which there is none really) the Eurasian Union invades Turkmenistan on February 4th 2036. Despite the rather flimsy pretext for action, instability in Iran, the Middle East, China and the USA, combined with growing agricultural and energy power in the EAU means that, despite protests from Iran and China, no nation is prepared to actually stand against the EAU.
And so by March of the same year Turkmenistan is officially incorporated into the EAU along with it sizable uranium and metal deposits. Development of these and solar projects soon bring new jobs and stability to the nation and very soon the average Turkmenistan citizen is only too happy to be part of the greater EAU.
Costa Rica Joins Caribbean Community 2036
Fearing the growing influence of CASS to the north and instability from Colombia in the south, Costa Rica joins CARICOM, seeing in them security and a chance to maintain a relative degree of independence.
Food Riots Engulf China; Government Enacts Reactionary Reforms 2036-2038
The US-China crisis upends much of China’s carefully balanced investments outside of China and Asia, including much of its agricultural and energy imports. Indeed in much of Africa and leftist Latin America, the wake of the secretive clandestine shadow-war sees many governments seizing Chinese investments without compensation.
Ultimately these factors combine with mass unemployment and wide-spread economic damage to threaten food and fresh water supplies and drive up basic living costs. As winter approaches, many families, facing unemployment and near starvation, desperately turn upon national stockpiles, markets, and even local granaries, farms, and gardens, seizing what they can. Violence ensues.
The Chinese military is able to secure the situation but only after tens of thousands die in the ‘December Food Riots’. Food shortages and chronic poverty lead to hundreds of thousands of more dead in the months that follow.
Faced with widespread instability, the Chinese government is forced to respond decisively. Facing reactionary pressure from not only a desperate public but their own military and political apparatus, the Chinese government repeals a large number of laws meant to open the economy and stimulate growth, blaming much of the recent instability and failures not only on the US and its ‘western allies’ but on the rising role of corporations and international predatory capitalism. Nationalization of both domestic and foreign businesses leads to new chaos and embitterment of foreign investors not already scared away by the US-China crisis.
In 2038 the Chinese government passes the ‘Shaoshan Reforms’. These reactionary laws see China return to the guiding principles of Maoism, relative isolationism, and a rising role for the re-energized Communist Party of China.
And while starvation and poverty continue in the wake of the ‘Shaoshan Reforms’, China is not fundamentally broken and by the fall of 2039 the majority of the instability and food shortages are under control. Soon, Chinese factories are re-opening with orders from throughout the world and China is experiencing renewed, albeit slow, growth.
Ecuador Withdraws from Peru 2036
Brazil mediates a peace agreement between Peru and Ecuador that sees Peru recover entirely from occupied territories in Ecuador. Many point to increasing activity within Peru by FARP and threat of force by CASS and Venezuela.
For the Brazilians, the peace is motivated by fear that the FARP/CASS/Venezuelan axis would extend further should Peru fail in Ecuador.
Civil War Engulfs the United States of America 2036- present
In the wake of the Palawan US-Chinese crisis (historians are careful not to call it a war), the US economy is torn asunder. Unemployment is at record highs and the US dollar is worth nearly nothing. With the world seemingly unwilling to take on any further US debt, the US government is cutting jobs in health, education, and military like it has never done before. Much of the information infrastructure remains badly damaged by Chinese-sponsored cyberattacks and the US stands starkly in contrast to much of the remainder of the world where IT-based globalization continues to grow.
The 2036 elections sees the arrival of a decidedly communist-like “USA Socialist Party” third party. Unexpectedly well funded (many suspect it is being propped up by the socialist nations of Latin America), and led by the charismatic Noah Croth, the USP for the first time since the 1800s serves to offer real challenge to the established US two-party system. Ultimately when the ballots are counted, Croth emerges as the victor, promising “real change and the dismantling of the corrupt US institutions and a long overdue look at our constitution and our values”.
The incumbent president, Elizabeth Cheney-Perry, declares the election illegal, citing interference by foreign powers, and the USP, and socialism, un-American. She invites the army to “save the nation” from the “Communist Threat”. Protests, unrest, and violence follow and the US army steps in to quell the unrest. The occupation of US cities by US military forces triggers further violence, especially as foreign weapons are secretly smuggled into the hands of the “Republic Loyalists”.
With widespread public support the left agitates for Cheney to step down and the army to cease its unconstitutional occupation. The right allies itself with corporate and traditional business and financial institutions, trading previously unconceivable new rights and privileges to the corporate structure in return for funding, support, and military assistance. The US economy is shattered. Jobs are increasingly non-existent. Infrastructure is crumbling and people are desperate. Both the left and the right believe their cause is just. Mass arrests and suppression of revolt by the right and riots and attacks on government and corporate institutions by the left ensure there can be no easy peace, and so, it is only a matter of time before violence engulfs the US.
And so the USA finally descends into the class-based civil war many had predicted and feared. Some analysts even go so far as to state that open class warfare was unavoidable and ‘only a matter of time’.
The left has the numbers, pro-democratic rhetoric, and are receiving guns and support from secretive foreign supporters. The right plays upon the ‘illegality’ of the 2038 elections and has the support of the technologically advanced and well capitalized US and international corporate structure and while they don’t have the numbers the left does, their soldiers are better trained and much better equipped.
There is no easy solution to the American civil war. As causalities mount, both sides become increasingly embittered, unwilling to compromise with an enemy that has maimed or killed their family and friends. Numbers are telling and by 2045 much of US territory is in the hands of Croth’s left but so too is financing and many of the major commercial and production hubs remain solidly under the control of Cheney’s right.
After 9 years of war costing approximately tens of millions of US lives and unknown trillions of dollars in damage, attrition enacts a heavy toll, and as total victory seems a distant dream for either side, war exhaustion is mounting and calls for a new peace, one the would see the US divided, are mounting.
FARP Political Representatives Win Elections in Colombia 2037
With FARP victorious in Ecuador and CASS and Venezuela both supporting the armed insurgency, and the Colombian government increasingly unpopular as it oppression of the resistance reaches new height, the continued survival of the Colombian government appears increasingly grim. And so emergency elections are called in which the FARP political arm is allowed to run and the result is a solid victory for the communist left.
As a result of the ‘FARP victory’ and opening of Colombian military documents, it is soon revealed that Colombia’s war on communism had been sponsored by USA, Mexico, and Argentina for some time as part of a greater ‘containment strategy’.
With communists solidly in power in Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador, the three nations agree to form a supranational organization, the Alliance of Socialist Nations. Contrary to CASS, the ASN is supranational; the nations of Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador remain independent.
EU and UK send soldiers to Panama 2037
Citing a need to protect world trade routes and the inability of the US to send its own soldiers to protect the canal, the EU and UK, working in close conjunction, send soldiers and naval groups to secure the canal, guaranteeing Panama’s sovereignty in the face of regional violence and instability.
Commercial Deuterium-Based Fusion Reactor Goes Online in the EU 2038
Vastly over-budget, the Deuterium-Fusion reactor is the EU’s successor to ITER and the long-awaited hope for rising global energy prices.
Unfortunately, while the reactor does produce a non-negligible net amount of energy, deuterium-based fusion ultimately proves too inefficient and expensive, even in today’s inflated energy market, to pursue commercially.
Koreas Reunite 2038
The death of Kim Jong-un from pancreatic cancer in 2029 ended a multi-generational cult of personality and provided opportunity for the military leadership to assume more direct control. Shortly thereafter the DRPK was seeking new, more open relations with both the ROK and China and by 2035 had signed a number of bilateral trade and diplomatic agreements that massively normalized relations between these countries.
In 2035, the DRPK held democratic elections and in 2038, with both the Chinese and US economies reeling from the Palawan Island oil fields trade war, a plebiscite was held in both the DRPK and the ROK resulting in the reunification of the Korea.
Like Germany after the fall of the Berlin wall, the two Koreas remain very different. Commercial power undoubtedly rests in Seoul and the south and the north remains wracked by long-standing poverty and underdevelopment. Still, quality of life has improved dramatically in the north and while Korea remains inwardly focused as it reunites its two long-divided peoples, its people are optimistic. Well-educated, tech-savvy and with a strong economic engine, they have every right to be.
Djibouti, Somalia Join Ummah Al’Salaam 2038
As eastern Africa increasingly comes under the influence of the Eastern African Federation or the Ummah Al’Salaam and the world suffers from increased instability due to economic depression, the fall of China and the US, and, in eastern Africa, more frequent and harsher droughts, there is an increasing tendency to seek security within larger organizations.
In 2038, both Djibouti and Somalia pass measures to join the Ummah Al’Salaam union.
Canada Remilitarizes the US-Canadian Border 2038
Canada withdraws from the 1817 Rush-Bagot treaty in 2038, sending soldiers to guard its southern border in response to rising violence south of Canada.
2041-2045
Trends
Commercial Tritium-Based Fusion Reactor Goes Online in India 2041
The relatively limited successes of ITER and now DEMO, as well as soaring energy prices motivates accelerated interest in alternative fusion energy plants. In 2041 India opens the first H3-based fusion reactor for commercial use at Chennai.
It is immediately apparent that, due to increased efficiencies of energy recovery, the Indian H3-based reactor will be much more commercially viable than existing deuterium-fusion reactors or existing fission reactors. The only problem of course is that H3 is difficult to recover on earth necessitating new programs for recovery from the upper atmosphere and beyond the earth.
Ethiopia, South Sudan Join Eastern African Federation 2041
Plebiscites in Ethiopia and South Sudan result in majority support for ascension to the East African Federation.
India Constructs Lunar Colony 2041-2045
In response to the sudden demand for tritium worldwide, the Indian government authorizes the development of a lunar colony at the moon’s south pole. Named Kshuparka, after one of the names of the Hindu lunar deity, the chosen site is on the north face of the Malaper mountain, near the Shackleton crater, and 122 km from the south pole.
By 2044, the site has already begun exporting very limited quantities of tritium to earth for use in the new second-generation fusion reactors. Upon completion in 2045, the site houses 11 colonists on a rotational basis. These serve primarily to purify valuable tritium from the regolith, as drone pilots for the miner-crawlers, as scientists, and to maintain the colony’s hydroponic gardens.
Mexican (Re-)Unionists Rising in Southern USA 2042
Despite the relative difficulties facing Mexico, including frequent drought and associated spiraling desalination costs, it is still much more stable and prosperous than the war-wracked southern United States.
And so with much of that population of Latino descent and Spanish being the predominant language of that region, and the region being ripped apart by war, (and yes, perhaps some clandestine support for the movement from within Mexico) popular support for union with Mexico is growing.
Within Mexico the movement is widely broadcast across the nooiome and public support for military action in southern USA is rising.
Eurasian Union Lands Men on Mars 2042
The Eurasian Union lands a group of four astronauts on the moon after 212 days in spaceflight. They spend 21 days on the Red planet, collecting samples, analyzing the soil and atmosphere and drilling at pre-determined points for subsurface ice.
The launch craft fails to lift off from Mars and over the next 12 days the people of earth are helpless to watch as the four astronauts scramble desperately to sustain themselves and finally succumb to asphyxiation. The orbital component of the mission is returned to earth under guidance from earth-based remote piloting.
Despite the deaths there is some pride in the EAU that they were the first to send a manned mission to Mars.
Japanese Government Sponsors “Telepresence” Geriatric Facilities 2042
The aging population of Japan and its particularly low fertility rate have meant that between 2005 and 2045, the population has fallen by almost 25% and now hovers just over 100 million. An aging population has also reduced productivity and greatly increased government social spending.
As the second half of the new century approaches, the Japanese government knows that the demographic changes will mean even further difficulties for its population. When a private company by the name of Toku Sora, in 2037, develops the means to support a human artificially and maintain them in virtual reality, for many who cannot afford geriatric care, the technology proves very tempting.
And so between the years 2037 and 2042 and increasing number of individuals enter into agreements with Toku Sora where the company would maintain them physically and allow them to exist in an almost purely virtual state. Individuals doing so would be able to exit the ‘system’ at anytime but would have to accept varying degrees of age-related decay to their meat bodies.
In 2042, the Japanese government, seeing the success of the Toku Sora system with already almost 500,000 users licenses the technology and nationalizes the company. The ‘Distant Sky’ geriatric system soon becomes a popular alternative for a significant portion of the population and by 2045 nearly 6 million individuals have entered the ‘catacombs’ to live a virtual life, most under contract with the Japanese government.
Telepresence soon becomes more common throughout Japan than any other nation with aging minds controlling distant drones, robotics, or virtual presences in manufacturing, commerce, and education. Retired soldiers and pilots can earn a salary and serve their nation by piloting drones while teachers can hold online classes. Doctors and scientists manipulate tools with robotic limbs and discuss their results within the coastal and deep nooiome
Since 2043, the Japanese economy is countering the global recession and experiencing modest growth and most attribute it to new productivity and reduced costs of the aging Japanese population.
Mexico Invades the USA 2044-2045
With multiple cities and towns holding unofficial plebiscites to join Mexico across California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, and no sign of peace between the left and right within the USA itself, Mexican congress, in 2044, approves Presidential request to send soldiers into the USA and ‘stabilize our neighbors and save our brothers and sisters’ from the ravages of war, famine, and worse.
The Mexican army is well organized and well armed and for the most part highly welcome within the regions it moves into but despite this resistance by dedicated ‘American patriots’ on both the left and the right of the war soon proves more stubborn than expected.
Mexico in 2045 continues to occupy much of southern USA and has been providing support to local population in the form of fresh water and food and has been arming local militias to protect themselves against “terrorists” but continues to come under attack by sophisticated and organized resisters with access to impressive military technology.
Terrorists Bomb Toku Sora “Catacombs” 2045
Citing the unnatural state of unlife fostered upon the poor and needy of Japan’s society, a previously unknown puritan organization sets off multiple bombs at a Toku Sora facility, killing hundreds of thousands of users. Promising more attacks they entreat the Japanese government and its people to cease this unnatural state of digital undeath. The Japanese military and volunteers from within the Toku Sora system respond with new security at the facilities.
Trends
- Oil production dropping worldwide. Except for the Eurasian Union and Canada, almost all nations have reached ‘peak oil’ and production is contracting, in some regions quite rapidly.
- Global recession follows in the wake of the near collapse of the world’s two largest markets, and rapidly rising fossil fuel prices.
- In response to China’s cyberattacks on the US in 2034, militaries worldwide scramble to develop neural-interface based cybersoldiers.
- Many African and Latin American nations pursue legal action against Chinese and US companies involved in the Palawan crisis resulting in seizure of foreign investments on a grand scale.
- The Internet develops as a pure virtual reality, the “deep nooiome”.
- Fuel prices are significantly affecting manufacturing in much of the developed world. Renewable energy resources are being actively pursued by almost every nation on an unprecedented scale.
- Food prices drop for first time in years as flagging Chinese and US markets alleviate demand on global supplies.
- Continuing drought and desertification leads to population displacement from equatorial regions.
- Canada, Eurasian Union, and Argentina are benefiting from climate change with greatly increased agricultural productivity and gain significant political and economic influence in an increasingly hungry world.
Ecuador Signs Peace Agreements with FARP 2036
With the FARP increasingly in control of much of the countryside and the Ecuadorian south and airspace solidly in the hands of Peru, the Ecuadorian government hastily signs a peace agreement with FARP that would see elections return to the nation after nearly 13 years of ‘emergency measures’.
Despite ongoing war with Peru, elections proceed and FARP representatives overwhelmingly win the people’s support.
Even as Ecuador unites around its new government, Peru makes rapid inroads into Ecuadorian territory.
EAU annexes Turkmenistan 2036
Responding to what it claims are ‘cross border raids’ by government-sponsored private security contractors working to disrupt southern EAU water projects (of which there is some truth) and ‘growing demand for EAU-based security’ (of which there is none really) the Eurasian Union invades Turkmenistan on February 4th 2036. Despite the rather flimsy pretext for action, instability in Iran, the Middle East, China and the USA, combined with growing agricultural and energy power in the EAU means that, despite protests from Iran and China, no nation is prepared to actually stand against the EAU.
And so by March of the same year Turkmenistan is officially incorporated into the EAU along with it sizable uranium and metal deposits. Development of these and solar projects soon bring new jobs and stability to the nation and very soon the average Turkmenistan citizen is only too happy to be part of the greater EAU.
Costa Rica Joins Caribbean Community 2036
Fearing the growing influence of CASS to the north and instability from Colombia in the south, Costa Rica joins CARICOM, seeing in them security and a chance to maintain a relative degree of independence.
Food Riots Engulf China; Government Enacts Reactionary Reforms 2036-2038
The US-China crisis upends much of China’s carefully balanced investments outside of China and Asia, including much of its agricultural and energy imports. Indeed in much of Africa and leftist Latin America, the wake of the secretive clandestine shadow-war sees many governments seizing Chinese investments without compensation.
Ultimately these factors combine with mass unemployment and wide-spread economic damage to threaten food and fresh water supplies and drive up basic living costs. As winter approaches, many families, facing unemployment and near starvation, desperately turn upon national stockpiles, markets, and even local granaries, farms, and gardens, seizing what they can. Violence ensues.
The Chinese military is able to secure the situation but only after tens of thousands die in the ‘December Food Riots’. Food shortages and chronic poverty lead to hundreds of thousands of more dead in the months that follow.
Faced with widespread instability, the Chinese government is forced to respond decisively. Facing reactionary pressure from not only a desperate public but their own military and political apparatus, the Chinese government repeals a large number of laws meant to open the economy and stimulate growth, blaming much of the recent instability and failures not only on the US and its ‘western allies’ but on the rising role of corporations and international predatory capitalism. Nationalization of both domestic and foreign businesses leads to new chaos and embitterment of foreign investors not already scared away by the US-China crisis.
In 2038 the Chinese government passes the ‘Shaoshan Reforms’. These reactionary laws see China return to the guiding principles of Maoism, relative isolationism, and a rising role for the re-energized Communist Party of China.
And while starvation and poverty continue in the wake of the ‘Shaoshan Reforms’, China is not fundamentally broken and by the fall of 2039 the majority of the instability and food shortages are under control. Soon, Chinese factories are re-opening with orders from throughout the world and China is experiencing renewed, albeit slow, growth.
Ecuador Withdraws from Peru 2036
Brazil mediates a peace agreement between Peru and Ecuador that sees Peru recover entirely from occupied territories in Ecuador. Many point to increasing activity within Peru by FARP and threat of force by CASS and Venezuela.
For the Brazilians, the peace is motivated by fear that the FARP/CASS/Venezuelan axis would extend further should Peru fail in Ecuador.
Civil War Engulfs the United States of America 2036- present
In the wake of the Palawan US-Chinese crisis (historians are careful not to call it a war), the US economy is torn asunder. Unemployment is at record highs and the US dollar is worth nearly nothing. With the world seemingly unwilling to take on any further US debt, the US government is cutting jobs in health, education, and military like it has never done before. Much of the information infrastructure remains badly damaged by Chinese-sponsored cyberattacks and the US stands starkly in contrast to much of the remainder of the world where IT-based globalization continues to grow.
The 2036 elections sees the arrival of a decidedly communist-like “USA Socialist Party” third party. Unexpectedly well funded (many suspect it is being propped up by the socialist nations of Latin America), and led by the charismatic Noah Croth, the USP for the first time since the 1800s serves to offer real challenge to the established US two-party system. Ultimately when the ballots are counted, Croth emerges as the victor, promising “real change and the dismantling of the corrupt US institutions and a long overdue look at our constitution and our values”.
The incumbent president, Elizabeth Cheney-Perry, declares the election illegal, citing interference by foreign powers, and the USP, and socialism, un-American. She invites the army to “save the nation” from the “Communist Threat”. Protests, unrest, and violence follow and the US army steps in to quell the unrest. The occupation of US cities by US military forces triggers further violence, especially as foreign weapons are secretly smuggled into the hands of the “Republic Loyalists”.
With widespread public support the left agitates for Cheney to step down and the army to cease its unconstitutional occupation. The right allies itself with corporate and traditional business and financial institutions, trading previously unconceivable new rights and privileges to the corporate structure in return for funding, support, and military assistance. The US economy is shattered. Jobs are increasingly non-existent. Infrastructure is crumbling and people are desperate. Both the left and the right believe their cause is just. Mass arrests and suppression of revolt by the right and riots and attacks on government and corporate institutions by the left ensure there can be no easy peace, and so, it is only a matter of time before violence engulfs the US.
And so the USA finally descends into the class-based civil war many had predicted and feared. Some analysts even go so far as to state that open class warfare was unavoidable and ‘only a matter of time’.
The left has the numbers, pro-democratic rhetoric, and are receiving guns and support from secretive foreign supporters. The right plays upon the ‘illegality’ of the 2038 elections and has the support of the technologically advanced and well capitalized US and international corporate structure and while they don’t have the numbers the left does, their soldiers are better trained and much better equipped.
There is no easy solution to the American civil war. As causalities mount, both sides become increasingly embittered, unwilling to compromise with an enemy that has maimed or killed their family and friends. Numbers are telling and by 2045 much of US territory is in the hands of Croth’s left but so too is financing and many of the major commercial and production hubs remain solidly under the control of Cheney’s right.
After 9 years of war costing approximately tens of millions of US lives and unknown trillions of dollars in damage, attrition enacts a heavy toll, and as total victory seems a distant dream for either side, war exhaustion is mounting and calls for a new peace, one the would see the US divided, are mounting.
FARP Political Representatives Win Elections in Colombia 2037
With FARP victorious in Ecuador and CASS and Venezuela both supporting the armed insurgency, and the Colombian government increasingly unpopular as it oppression of the resistance reaches new height, the continued survival of the Colombian government appears increasingly grim. And so emergency elections are called in which the FARP political arm is allowed to run and the result is a solid victory for the communist left.
As a result of the ‘FARP victory’ and opening of Colombian military documents, it is soon revealed that Colombia’s war on communism had been sponsored by USA, Mexico, and Argentina for some time as part of a greater ‘containment strategy’.
With communists solidly in power in Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador, the three nations agree to form a supranational organization, the Alliance of Socialist Nations. Contrary to CASS, the ASN is supranational; the nations of Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador remain independent.
EU and UK send soldiers to Panama 2037
Citing a need to protect world trade routes and the inability of the US to send its own soldiers to protect the canal, the EU and UK, working in close conjunction, send soldiers and naval groups to secure the canal, guaranteeing Panama’s sovereignty in the face of regional violence and instability.
Commercial Deuterium-Based Fusion Reactor Goes Online in the EU 2038
Vastly over-budget, the Deuterium-Fusion reactor is the EU’s successor to ITER and the long-awaited hope for rising global energy prices.
Unfortunately, while the reactor does produce a non-negligible net amount of energy, deuterium-based fusion ultimately proves too inefficient and expensive, even in today’s inflated energy market, to pursue commercially.
Koreas Reunite 2038
The death of Kim Jong-un from pancreatic cancer in 2029 ended a multi-generational cult of personality and provided opportunity for the military leadership to assume more direct control. Shortly thereafter the DRPK was seeking new, more open relations with both the ROK and China and by 2035 had signed a number of bilateral trade and diplomatic agreements that massively normalized relations between these countries.
In 2035, the DRPK held democratic elections and in 2038, with both the Chinese and US economies reeling from the Palawan Island oil fields trade war, a plebiscite was held in both the DRPK and the ROK resulting in the reunification of the Korea.
Like Germany after the fall of the Berlin wall, the two Koreas remain very different. Commercial power undoubtedly rests in Seoul and the south and the north remains wracked by long-standing poverty and underdevelopment. Still, quality of life has improved dramatically in the north and while Korea remains inwardly focused as it reunites its two long-divided peoples, its people are optimistic. Well-educated, tech-savvy and with a strong economic engine, they have every right to be.
Djibouti, Somalia Join Ummah Al’Salaam 2038
As eastern Africa increasingly comes under the influence of the Eastern African Federation or the Ummah Al’Salaam and the world suffers from increased instability due to economic depression, the fall of China and the US, and, in eastern Africa, more frequent and harsher droughts, there is an increasing tendency to seek security within larger organizations.
In 2038, both Djibouti and Somalia pass measures to join the Ummah Al’Salaam union.
Canada Remilitarizes the US-Canadian Border 2038
Canada withdraws from the 1817 Rush-Bagot treaty in 2038, sending soldiers to guard its southern border in response to rising violence south of Canada.
2041-2045
Trends
- Renewable energy sources are now the primary source of energy globally.
- Global economies continue to contract with particular pressures in resource, energy, and food markets.
- World-wide tritium prices skyrocket as India’s tritium-based second-generation fusion technology proves highly commercially viable. Follow-on H3-fusion plants are soon under construction in Korea, Japan, the EU, and Brazil.
- Continuing climate change leads to continuing difficulties for many parts of Mexico, Ummah Al’Salaam, and inland China.
- US civil war continues. Refugees swamp Canadian and Mexican borders.
- Movement within the ASN for closer integration akin to CASS gains influences.
- Central and South America are increasingly divided into three camps, the CARICOM, CASS, ASN axis supporting socialism or communism and Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Chile and Urugua increasingly fallen under the influence of the rising Argentinian conservative, capitalist, power. Brazil stands alone, its relative power, non-inference and leftist centrist party helping it to rise above regional conflict.
- The much-abbreviated EU increasingly operates as a single federalized nation.
- The Middle East experiences renewed growth as the Ummah Al’Salaam and expanded Iran unite their populations in recovery from conflict, and develop new, post-oil based economies with extensive solar energy development.
- China continues to gradually recover from US-Chinese crisis.
Commercial Tritium-Based Fusion Reactor Goes Online in India 2041
The relatively limited successes of ITER and now DEMO, as well as soaring energy prices motivates accelerated interest in alternative fusion energy plants. In 2041 India opens the first H3-based fusion reactor for commercial use at Chennai.
It is immediately apparent that, due to increased efficiencies of energy recovery, the Indian H3-based reactor will be much more commercially viable than existing deuterium-fusion reactors or existing fission reactors. The only problem of course is that H3 is difficult to recover on earth necessitating new programs for recovery from the upper atmosphere and beyond the earth.
Ethiopia, South Sudan Join Eastern African Federation 2041
Plebiscites in Ethiopia and South Sudan result in majority support for ascension to the East African Federation.
India Constructs Lunar Colony 2041-2045
In response to the sudden demand for tritium worldwide, the Indian government authorizes the development of a lunar colony at the moon’s south pole. Named Kshuparka, after one of the names of the Hindu lunar deity, the chosen site is on the north face of the Malaper mountain, near the Shackleton crater, and 122 km from the south pole.
By 2044, the site has already begun exporting very limited quantities of tritium to earth for use in the new second-generation fusion reactors. Upon completion in 2045, the site houses 11 colonists on a rotational basis. These serve primarily to purify valuable tritium from the regolith, as drone pilots for the miner-crawlers, as scientists, and to maintain the colony’s hydroponic gardens.
Mexican (Re-)Unionists Rising in Southern USA 2042
Despite the relative difficulties facing Mexico, including frequent drought and associated spiraling desalination costs, it is still much more stable and prosperous than the war-wracked southern United States.
And so with much of that population of Latino descent and Spanish being the predominant language of that region, and the region being ripped apart by war, (and yes, perhaps some clandestine support for the movement from within Mexico) popular support for union with Mexico is growing.
Within Mexico the movement is widely broadcast across the nooiome and public support for military action in southern USA is rising.
Eurasian Union Lands Men on Mars 2042
The Eurasian Union lands a group of four astronauts on the moon after 212 days in spaceflight. They spend 21 days on the Red planet, collecting samples, analyzing the soil and atmosphere and drilling at pre-determined points for subsurface ice.
The launch craft fails to lift off from Mars and over the next 12 days the people of earth are helpless to watch as the four astronauts scramble desperately to sustain themselves and finally succumb to asphyxiation. The orbital component of the mission is returned to earth under guidance from earth-based remote piloting.
Despite the deaths there is some pride in the EAU that they were the first to send a manned mission to Mars.
Japanese Government Sponsors “Telepresence” Geriatric Facilities 2042
The aging population of Japan and its particularly low fertility rate have meant that between 2005 and 2045, the population has fallen by almost 25% and now hovers just over 100 million. An aging population has also reduced productivity and greatly increased government social spending.
As the second half of the new century approaches, the Japanese government knows that the demographic changes will mean even further difficulties for its population. When a private company by the name of Toku Sora, in 2037, develops the means to support a human artificially and maintain them in virtual reality, for many who cannot afford geriatric care, the technology proves very tempting.
And so between the years 2037 and 2042 and increasing number of individuals enter into agreements with Toku Sora where the company would maintain them physically and allow them to exist in an almost purely virtual state. Individuals doing so would be able to exit the ‘system’ at anytime but would have to accept varying degrees of age-related decay to their meat bodies.
In 2042, the Japanese government, seeing the success of the Toku Sora system with already almost 500,000 users licenses the technology and nationalizes the company. The ‘Distant Sky’ geriatric system soon becomes a popular alternative for a significant portion of the population and by 2045 nearly 6 million individuals have entered the ‘catacombs’ to live a virtual life, most under contract with the Japanese government.
Telepresence soon becomes more common throughout Japan than any other nation with aging minds controlling distant drones, robotics, or virtual presences in manufacturing, commerce, and education. Retired soldiers and pilots can earn a salary and serve their nation by piloting drones while teachers can hold online classes. Doctors and scientists manipulate tools with robotic limbs and discuss their results within the coastal and deep nooiome
Since 2043, the Japanese economy is countering the global recession and experiencing modest growth and most attribute it to new productivity and reduced costs of the aging Japanese population.
Mexico Invades the USA 2044-2045
With multiple cities and towns holding unofficial plebiscites to join Mexico across California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, and no sign of peace between the left and right within the USA itself, Mexican congress, in 2044, approves Presidential request to send soldiers into the USA and ‘stabilize our neighbors and save our brothers and sisters’ from the ravages of war, famine, and worse.
The Mexican army is well organized and well armed and for the most part highly welcome within the regions it moves into but despite this resistance by dedicated ‘American patriots’ on both the left and the right of the war soon proves more stubborn than expected.
Mexico in 2045 continues to occupy much of southern USA and has been providing support to local population in the form of fresh water and food and has been arming local militias to protect themselves against “terrorists” but continues to come under attack by sophisticated and organized resisters with access to impressive military technology.
Terrorists Bomb Toku Sora “Catacombs” 2045
Citing the unnatural state of unlife fostered upon the poor and needy of Japan’s society, a previously unknown puritan organization sets off multiple bombs at a Toku Sora facility, killing hundreds of thousands of users. Promising more attacks they entreat the Japanese government and its people to cease this unnatural state of digital undeath. The Japanese military and volunteers from within the Toku Sora system respond with new security at the facilities.
Immaculate
unerring
- Joined
- Jan 22, 2003
- Messages
- 7,623
Nation/Faction List:
North America:
Canada (*)
Caribbean Community
Central American Socialist States
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Mexico
Panama
United States of America (Capitalist Junta) (*)
United States of America (Socialist Republic) (*)
South America:
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil (*)
Colombia
Chile
Ecuador
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Europe:
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Estonia
European Union (*)
Finland
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Macedonia
Malta
Moldova
Montenegro
Norway
Portugal
Romania
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom (*)
Vatican City
Africa:
Algeria
Angola
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Comoros
Democratic Republic Of the Congo
Republic of the Congo
East African Federation
Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Ivory Coast
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Nigeria
São Tomé and Príncipe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Swaziland
Togo
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Asia:
Afghanistan
ASEAN (*)
Bangladesh
Bhutan
China (*)
Eurasian Union (*)
India (*)
Iran
Israel
Japan
Korea
Mongolia
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Timor-lest
Turkey
Ummah Al’Salaam
Oceanic Nations
Australia
Federated States of Micronesia
Fiji
Kiribati
Marshall Islands
Nauru
New Zealand
Palau
Papua New Guinea
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Those nations marked with a single asterisk can be considered first tier nations. Others (Argentina, Nigeria, East African Federation, Ummah Al'Salaam, Iran, Japan) come close but don't quite make it- yet.
North America:
Canada (*)
Caribbean Community
Central American Socialist States
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Mexico
Panama
United States of America (Capitalist Junta) (*)
United States of America (Socialist Republic) (*)
South America:
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil (*)
Colombia
Chile
Ecuador
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Europe:
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Estonia
European Union (*)
Finland
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Macedonia
Malta
Moldova
Montenegro
Norway
Portugal
Romania
Serbia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom (*)
Vatican City
Africa:
Algeria
Angola
Botswana
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Central African Republic
Comoros
Democratic Republic Of the Congo
Republic of the Congo
East African Federation
Equatorial Guinea
Gabon
Ghana
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Ivory Coast
Lesotho
Liberia
Madagascar
Malawi
Mali
Mauritania
Mauritius
Morocco
Mozambique
Namibia
Nigeria
São Tomé and Príncipe
Senegal
Seychelles
Sierra Leone
South Africa
Swaziland
Togo
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Asia:
Afghanistan
ASEAN (*)
Bangladesh
Bhutan
China (*)
Eurasian Union (*)
India (*)
Iran
Israel
Japan
Korea
Mongolia
Nepal
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Timor-lest
Turkey
Ummah Al’Salaam
Oceanic Nations
Australia
Federated States of Micronesia
Fiji
Kiribati
Marshall Islands
Nauru
New Zealand
Palau
Papua New Guinea
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Those nations marked with a single asterisk can be considered first tier nations. Others (Argentina, Nigeria, East African Federation, Ummah Al'Salaam, Iran, Japan) come close but don't quite make it- yet.
Seon
Not An Evil Liar
as discussed previously, laying claim to the United Kingdoms.
Traveller76
Prince
1. United States (socialist Republic)
2. Canada
3. South Africa
4. Australia
5. China
2. Canada
3. South Africa
4. Australia
5. China
