Unbeatable odds

[AlessioCerci]

Double post

 

[GIO888]

I lost at >99.9% once, I kid you not. I was stunned - so stunned I remember it very clearly.

I have won on around 10% though, although I only do that as a "Bunker Hill" type last gasp with bayonets and empty powder horns, after a sustained attack on badly damaged defenders. Hee hee.

 

[empee]

My worst lost at 99.7% I think, but I lose on about 60%-70% waaaaay often than I should. I mean I should win 6-7 fights on 10, but it seems the other way around, I lose that much battles.

 

[Thanny]

I lost a 100.0% battle in vanilla (which would be >99.9% in Warlords and BtS).

In general, I found anything below 99% had a much greater rate of failure than the odds indicated in vanilla and Warlords. BtS seems to be more on the mark with odds.

 

[Solomwi]

My worst lost at 99.7% I think, but I lose on about 60%-70% waaaaay often than I should. I mean I should win 6-7 fights on 10, but it seems the other way around, I lose that much battles.

That frustrates me far more than a single loss at 99% or above. The latter I can pass off as so rare and remarkable that I almost consider myself fortunate to have seen it happen. Not so the former. I know the cognitive biases that go into the belief that the odds aren't "right," and I recognize that random number generation can be streaky, but losing a string of several battles at 60-90% is the absolute most frustrating thing in the game for me. I think its the immediate realization that all my effort and meticulous planning to get my units into favorable situations was pretty much wasted. Of course, I somewhat enjoy the ensuing scramble to adjust my plans and make the best of it, but it doesn't stop the foul language as I watch unit after unit get bested by inferior opponents.

 

[valamas]

i have lost my Leader unit that had a 98% chance of winning. That was a huge slug to the face, especially since im not a re-loader. Now i just put my military leaders in cities. they are way too easy at dying

 

[Civfan333]

yeah, great generals are grossly underpowered......

 

[say1988]

Can't remember every occasion where you was by th RNG. Just the highlights

Never had that happen in civ 4, but just had a horse archer kill my full strength Drill IV Paratrooper when I attacked it's city.

Generally I don't attack at anything below 90%, but there are a couple situations where I do:
As stated before, to soften up enemies (especially with siege).
Or if I have a warrior (or other ancient) explorer left wandering around near an enemy I might take a shot (especially if I have little money). Sure odds are I just give the enemy 1 xp, but the rewards if I succeed can be huge.

 

[oPlaiD]

I don't hate getting screwed by odds so much. What I do hate is when you get screwed and don't do any damage on an attack.

If you have, say, 95% odds is there always a chance you won't even hurt the defender/attacker? I don't know anything about the combat formulas.

 

[6K Man]

I was looking at the statistics of my current game today - I had beelined to Privateers and wanted to see how much effect they had had (aside from getting a few Generals).

None of the AIs have Chemistry yet - curious, because some have Physics and many/most of them have Astronomy now. But the numbers look like this:

My losses: 6 Privateers
AI losses: 3 Galleons, 34 Galleys, 81 Triremes, 197 Caravels.

Now, I wasn't attacking with even moderately wounded units, and only a handful of attacks (probably those against the Galleons) were with worse than 98% odds. Usually it was 99%+. So my 6 lost units versus the 315 lost by the AI sound about right. Taking into account the couple of occasions where I foolishly left lone wounded Privateers exposed to attack, the system seems to work.

I have won a few times with low odds - I suicided my last attacker against the final defender of the last Portuguese city earlier in the same game, and won with 20% odds - but I do that so rarely that I can't speak to the accuracy of the odds on that end of the scale.

 

[Howard!]

I won a 0.2%... Yes, I was shocked. I did it out of frustration after losing 6 troops that had >50%.