Originally posted by Harlan
Without the war with the US, Japan conquers China, removing a Vietnam War type thorn from their side, greatly boosting their economic power.
This doesn't seen likely to happen to china,
india, australia, asean were sending aid like mad to china.
they know if china fall, it will soon be their turn.
many modern army have invaded china, but non have
manage to proceed more that 100 mile from the coast.
it is just too much resourse to waste,
they further you are from your ship,
the more fuel you have to waste to move stuff around.
and against a nation 10th your size, weight with little industry.
it takes too much out of japan which didn't HAVE enough oil!
this is why they invaded asean, to capture rubber, metal and oil.
japan would find it extremely dangerous,
since US's protected the philippines.
But if you want no war with US,
you will have to take the chance.
and if you check philipines on the map.
it is RIGHT IN THE CENTRE of the japanese empire!
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but here is something interesting for you.
Maybe you can use my suggestion

japan HAVE wanted to make china a puppet state.
they promote alot of propaganda in china.
they however only manage to get manchuria.
they installed the formal chinese emperor
(who was overthrown) as president of this state.
you can of course change history by
making the puppet state the whole of china.

(making china an ally of japan and also their cash cow)
manchuria should not be in war yet.
no plane, only rilfeman and very few artillery.
almost no railroad, no ships and backward technology.
Their border with soviet union and india,
make them a good buffer for japan.
they should also be paying japan gold per turn.
give the japan as many china's coastal city & taiwan.
Thailand, Malayan and Vietnam was
under japan sphere of power as well.