Whats the future for Cuba?

[Rodgers]

Cuba hasn't been in the news much lately - except for the pope's visit - so I thought I'd invite anyone with a bit of knoweldge about the country to speculate on it's future here -

Castro must be pretty old by now - will the revolution survive him a la North Korea? Or is any Communist regime doomed in the post-Cold War era once the head guy kicks the bucket? If so what will come after him? Think those exiles in Miami would be welcomed home again? Would their brand of right wing politics find any favour with a populous used to only revolutionary communism? I suspect the huge amounts of money they bring with them will be. Anyway, over to you....

 

[Switch625]

I don't know what the future would hold for Cuba itself, but I can't see the exiles being welcomed back. Those guys are pretty right-wing authoritarian, and I'd imagine that the people of Cuba don't want to replace a left-wing dictator with a right-wing one. The people of Cuba will decide their future, and the exiles are due for a rude shock if they think they'll be part of the process.

 

[G-Man]

After him there'll be another dictator. The question is if this dictator will be a communist facist or a capitalistic one.

 

[knowltok2]

Well I hope that things will get better after Castro. All they have to do is open up and money will flood into Cuba. Tourism $'s, Rum sales, and for crying out loud, cigars are popular right now.

I would guess that all the next leader needs is just a little bit of popular support, and they can do this if they want to. Once they come into power they can normalize relations with the US, and once that happens, they have the US military ready and willing to put down any coup attempts.

Cuba has a potentially bright future, and all it needs to achieve it is a stable government that makes a reproachment with the US. A democracy of sorts will help, but I don't think it will be required, at least at the beginning.

 

[Rodgers]

"A democracy of sorts will help, but I don't think it will be required, at least at the beginning"

Really?! I thjought it was pretty much essential for US aid/recognition these days (I mean as far as Cuba is concerned).

 

[knowltok2]

Originally posted by Rodgers
"A democracy of sorts will help, but I don't think it will be required, at least at the beginning"

Really?! I thjought it was pretty much essential for US aid/recognition these days (I mean as far as Cuba is concerned).

Well, I don't know our official position on Cuba, but I would assume that a transitionary government that is cooperating with the US will be given a pass for a while.

Once the beaches are crowded with US tourists, I can see shady elections, and less than perfect democracy being allowed to slide. What is the alternative? Send in the marines while thousands of Americans are basking in the sun in no danger? It is one thing if their is a coup, quite another if there is a shady election.

 

[Knight-Dragon]

I think once Castro is gone and a more acceptable (to the US) regime is in place, gradually relations will improve. Cuba will do well economically, due to its proximity to the USA. Esp in areas like tourism, cigars, rum.....

 

[Greadius]

Cuba isn't entirely foreign to the democratic process. The main problem is there is no accountability at the top with Castro and his ilk, and a lot of centralization. That, and the old Communist model of its-democracy-with-one-party. I think there are plenty of models of post-Communist states in Eastern Europe and Russia to look at. There will probably be a power struggle amongst Castro's successors, if it is long or divisive enough it may actually breakdown the system. Otherwise, I'd look for a slow path towards reapproachment, liberalization, and democratization much like Mexico's path following the PRI's founders death (whose name slips my mind).

Of course, Cuba has the advantage of being smaller, sleeker, more politically unified, and a wealthy local diaspora with strong ties.

 

[bobgote]

Castro will not die! Castro will live forever!!!1
As for the future: any moment now, cuba will undergo a change, and will finally become the true workers paradise. COMMUNISM FOREVER!!!1 They will not need the support of the US. Just you wait! Soon the US will want support from CUBA YES IT WILL HAPPEN!!!1

 

[gr8ful wes]

I think the US should try and mend relations w/cuba. The cold war is over. And in this day and age it is better to have friends instead of enemies.

 

[amadeus]

I don't have a problem trading with Cuba or opening up diplomatic ties with Cuba.

The problem I have is with Castro. Once he croaks, I'm pretty sure they'll be there to set up a fairly decent democratic system.

And bobgote, if Cuba is some kind of socialist paradise, how come people get on rafts to float here? I can't recall the last time someone "escaped" to Cuba.

 

[Ozz]

Originally posted by rmsharpe
I don't have a problem trading with Cuba or opening up diplomatic ties with Cuba.

The problem I have is with Castro. Once he croaks, I'm pretty sure they'll be there to set up a fairly decent democratic system.

And bobgote, if Cuba is some kind of socialist paradise, how come people get on rafts to float here? I can't recall the last time someone "escaped" to Cuba.

Castro's regime was forced to extremes to fend off the
effects of the US's ire. After Castro croaks look for a short continuation of the same by his successor, when an overthrow.

They will follow the USSRs path.

 

[nixon]

Originally posted by bobgote
Castro will not die! Castro will live forever!!!1
As for the future: any moment now, cuba will undergo a change, and will finally become the true workers paradise. COMMUNISM FOREVER!!!1 They will not need the support of the US. Just you wait! Soon the US will want support from CUBA YES IT WILL HAPPEN!!!1

Neat irony, my friend.

What should have been done a long time ago, is to assassinate Fidel Castro and quickly install a new government which is convinced pro-U.S. and Western.

As soon as Castro is down, the United States should arm Cuban exiles, as in 1961, who would then make a mucher better planned amphibious assault, seize Havana and the other larger cities. The U.S. Air Force should also participate in directing an air campaign, which effectively eliminates the Red Cuban communication, supply depots, etc.

But, sooner or later, Castro will die due to his rather senior status, and a new successor has already been picked.

 

[Simon Darkshade]

Bombing, followed by amphibious and airborne invasion, and restoration of proper government.

 

[Switch625]

Can we just leave Cuba the heck alone? I know my status as a right-winger is in danger by saying this, but I've had it up to my neck with all this thirst for revenge against Castro and the Cuban Communist Party. He outmaneuvered us! Get a grip, deal with it, and forget it! It's not as if Cuba has ever (by itself) posed a threat to us. We have no cause at all to attack it or arm a proxy rebellion. Iraq it ain't.

Sheesh.

 

[EdwardTking]

Maybe the talk about IRAQ is a ruse; Bush will invade Cuba.

 

[ComradeDavo]

Cuba is always a difficult one for me.

On one side, obviously I am sypathetic to their left wing cause.

But i dislike dictators.

But then I understand why Castro does maintain power like that...but still...hmmmmm.......authoritarianism bad......

What do I think will happen when he's gone?

Well Raul will take power and things will prob change a little bit, but still more or less the same.

Any attempt by the USA to install a new government would result in a blood bath an international condemnation.

 

[The Balrog]

Originally posted by G-Man
After him there'll be another dictator. The question is if this dictator will be a communist facist or a capitalistic one.

Probably his brother will take over.

 

[amadeus]

I'm sure the CIA has a plan to install a government after Castro. His brother? Pfft. Unlike North Korea, for example, Cuba is within close proximity of the U.S. and in the regional sphere of influence.

If the CIA plan fails, I wouldn't be suprised if one of Castro's generals takes over and opens the country up to the U.S. -- I'm sure at least someone close to Castro wants his seat, and knows how to keep it (close ties to the U.S.)

 

[ComradeDavo]

Originally posted by rmsharpe
I'm sure the CIA has a plan to install a government after Castro. His brother? Pfft. Unlike North Korea, for example, Cuba is within close proximity of the U.S. and in the regional sphere of influence.

If the CIA plan fails, I wouldn't be suprised if one of Castro's generals takes over and opens the country up to the U.S. -- I'm sure at least someone close to Castro wants his seat, and knows how to keep it (close ties to the U.S.)

I don't think the C.I.A could get away with such a high profile operation.

As i said already, such an move would result in a blood bath and international condemnation of the USA.