Assume there are 3 civs left. 2 of them are quite close on the histograph to you but the other is like 1/4 of your score due to being isolated. Which do you attack first? The stronger ones or be a bully and attack the weak guy?
Might also depend on which victory conditions are enabled; e.g. is any one about to finish a space ship before you or possibly win a diplomatic victory; do you have the UN? If I dont have it I usually go for the civ that does to capture or just destroy it.
Proximity matters, go for the closest and try to entice the other civs to ally with you. In addition to getting help in diverting your victims forces you can keep the "other" civs from using the time you are caught up in war to pull ahead of you by concentrating on growth/research. It really sucks to be in the situation you described, successfully defeat one opponent and find that the other civs are now way ahead of you.
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