Time will tell, I guess. Probably sales as well, plus whatever happens in the scenario.
If Civ VI had continued the pattern and provided a complete spin-off it would be more sure, but we got the Red Death and Pirates mini-games instead.
The era system may point in that direction (even switching eras in a campaign maybe, for crazy combinations -> something like Millenia is trying to do).
In any case, I'm a bit wary of spin-offs nowadays. BE had gread potential (and I still enjoy playing it) but lacked a bit in rounding and making the experience more immersive. Maybe it's not just an spin-off thing, as Civ VI moreless failed on this pitfall as well (albeit it had much more support being the main line of the franchise). And we are still seeing bad omens in Civ VII. Whatever comes I'll probably enjoy nevertheless, but it's true the videogame scenario nowadays is a bit disappointing (exceptions can be counted).