World War 3 - 2015 for C3C

Originally posted by muffins
I'm British and I support the EU to the hilt!

Fully united Europe with a united military, foreign policy and President? Yes please!

Europe is a growing power and is predicted to eclipse the US within the next couple of decades as the globe's number one power - and I want Britain to be a part of that.

The EU's economy already overtook the US's economy in terms of shear size in 2003 and it hasn't even expanded into Eastern Europe yet.

How about if I do a scenario for 2024 where the EU RULES THE WORLD! **evil laugh** :lol: :lol:
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1. "Europe" is a continent. Saying it is the world's number one power is like saying North America is the world's number one power. This is the same for economic size, the European Union has, not sure exactly, approx. 15 countries in it. The US is ONE country. For Pete's sake, this is like comparing apples and oranges.

Your union is doomed to fail for the same reason the first US constitution failed. You need a more cohesive federal system. I understand some countries don't want to dissolve their culture, but it will be necessary or it will fail.

Good luck!

2. You guys might want to build a few planes, tanks, and boats if you want to eclipse the US militarily. Oh, and after that, get the balls to actually use them (Britain is the exception).
 
Ruiner... the US wasnt one country, it took time to build it up as the way it is now.... as you've already said. I think the idea of the EU in the long run is something like the united states of europe...like the USA......
 
Originally posted by Overlag
Ruiner... the US wasnt one country, it took time to build it up as the way it is now.... as you've already said. I think the idea of the EU in the long run is something like the united states of europe...like the USA......
Click to expand...

It will take a LOT longer for the independent nations of Europe to approach the level of cohesiveness the US states have.

I didn't mean for my post to sound rude, I guess I was grumpy. I get a little tired of all the anti-US comments. It seems like people can't complain about the weather without bringing GW into the discussion (I've voted for him in state and national elections). I realize he's controversial, but as far as 50% of Americans are concernerned (you know, the people he's suppose to look after) Al Gore wasn't any better.

I understand the rest of the world is annoyed that American policies effect them, but this is the world we find ourselves in and GW is simply following a diplomatic style as old as governments themselves and perfected in 17th century Europe, realpolitik.
 
Well, most of the population predictions I have seen show that the US will pass the EU in terms of population in a couple of decades - most of the EU has birthrates well below replacement level, while the US has a birthrate right about on replacement level, and a lot more immigration than the EU. That, and most of Europe is unwilling to fund a military as large as the US, so I don't think they will be long term threat to US power.

China on the Other hand, is the one you should look out for.
 
No India will be the next Superpower! By 2027 we'll have the 3rd best economy in the world and our military is pretty big at least a million. China has 2.2 million men while the U.S. has 1.4 million. India's poplation is more than a billion now.
 
True, India is also a potential great power in the making - in purchase parity terms they already have the worlds 4th largest economy. I see the great challenge of American foreign policy in the next 100 years will be to play the India and China off one another, to keep US domiance in the foreing arena.
 
The U.S. has no dominance in the area the U.S.'s time as world power is coming to an end. The next world powers are either going to be India or China. Or both. That may cause some conflict in the future.
 
Originally posted by DreadCthulhu
Well, most of the population predictions I have seen show that the US will pass the EU in terms of population in a couple of decades.
Click to expand...

Current US population = 270 million

Current EU population = 374 million

EU population after entry of Eastern Europe and Turkey (May 2004 and 2007) = 550 million (you Americans will have to breed like bunnies to overtake that) :D

And if they get the rest of Europe into the EU after 2007 then we could see an EU with a population of 800 million ... just 40 million short of the entire population of both North AND South America.

The 'big' regions of the world (China, India and Europe) are powering up their economies and are going to challenge the global status quo.
 
Well, American birth rates are rising right now, while in Europe, they are on the decline; the United States is also is receiving a lot more immigrants, who themselves tend to have a very high birthrate.

Here is an article orginally from the Economist, about this trend - http://www.drabruzzi.com/half_a billion_americans.htm
which predicts by 2050, the US will have a total population of ~400-550 million and rising, while Western Europe's popultion will be at 360 million and falling.

And this site http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ERD/DB/data/hum/dem/dem_2.htm

predicts that Europe's total popultion will be around 625 million by 2050, and dropping.

Also note that the US has a higher per capita income than any European country not named Luxemburg. Currently, the US is at $36,000 per person, while the larger European economies (Germany, France, the U.K., Italy, Spain, ect) are around $20,000 - $26,000 per person. Assuming this trend continues, the US will have an economy larger than Europe's in a fairly short period of time, and nearly twice the size of the EU(current countries anyways) by 2050.
 
I totally agree with you, Cthulhu, I was not trying to dismiss your figures. I was just trying to interject some perspective. I’ve seen the figures myself.

Europe as a whole is predicted to grow until 2030 to 2040 where the population will gradually drop to 700 million (I’ve always included Turkey in European figures). My own country, Britain, is predicted to go from 59 million today to a peak of 64 million in 2040 and then drop to 61 million by 2050. Big deal.

As for the GDP figures you might want to factor in the Dollar’s 40% devaluation over the last two years against the now mighty Euro. A European GDP per capita figure for 2001 of $26,000 would have to be revised upwards 40% - to $36,400 - to get actual value. Plus, worryingly, the reasons for the Dollar’s fall (the US trade deficit and governmental budget deficit) are actually getting worse.

50 years is a long time to predict economic trends, especially when the Dollar’s role as global reserve currency is under threat (who’s going to buy Dollars or US government bonds when their currency slumped 40%?). Too much can happen in 50 years in this changing world to make meaningful predictions. India was predicted to become a major superpower just decades after gaining independence in 1947 … that didn’t happen.

In any case, by 2050 I’m sure that other democracies OUTSIDE Europe would have joined the European Union. Perhaps if you Americans act nice we might even let you in too :D
 
wow this is a good scenerio. the possibilities it offers are awesome!good job!
 
You seemed faily convinced of your own argument so I won't try to dissuade you any further.

However, i'd like add that making a 50 year prediction based upon currency valuation data gleaned during a two year recession is DEFINITELY illadvised.

Originally posted by muffins
I totally agree with you, Cthulhu, I was not trying to dismiss your figures. I was just trying to interject some perspective. I’ve seen the figures myself.

Europe as a whole is predicted to grow until 2030 to 2040 where the population will gradually drop to 700 million (I’ve always included Turkey in European figures). My own country, Britain, is predicted to go from 59 million today to a peak of 64 million in 2040 and then drop to 61 million by 2050. Big deal.

As for the GDP figures you might want to factor in the Dollar’s 40% devaluation over the last two years against the now mighty Euro. A European GDP per capita figure for 2001 of $26,000 would have to be revised upwards 40% - to $36,400 - to get actual value. Plus, worryingly, the reasons for the Dollar’s fall (the US trade deficit and governmental budget deficit) are actually getting worse.

50 years is a long time to predict economic trends, especially when the Dollar’s role as global reserve currency is under threat (who’s going to buy Dollars or US government bonds when their currency slumped 40%?). Too much can happen in 50 years in this changing world to make meaningful predictions. India was predicted to become a major superpower just decades after gaining independence in 1947 … that didn’t happen.

In any case, by 2050 I’m sure that other democracies OUTSIDE Europe would have joined the European Union. Perhaps if you Americans act nice we might even let you in too :D
Click to expand...
 
Originally posted by ruiner
However, i'd like add that making a 50 year prediction based upon currency valuation data gleaned during a two year recession is DEFINITELY illadvised.
Click to expand...

What 50 year prediction? With GDP I was talking about today . In any case there hasn't been a 2 year recession (ie negative growth) and a recession would have little effect upon the strength of a currency.

The Dollar is devaluing because the $500 billion trade deficit and $550 billion US governmental budget deficit are exporting $1 trillion worth of Dollars into the global currency market - causing oversupply - not any recession.
 
Seems like a lot of work was put in to this scenario.
I only have one concern.

George Bush is still the president of USA and it's 2015! :king:
Oh well, It is almost impossible to predict future leaders so I'll leave it at that.
 
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