p.s. an interesting tidbit from current results: 35 people are not saying they'll pay any and every xOTM no matter what it is or how many they are. If you take "I'll play everything" to be another way of saying they just don't care much what the version is (probably true for large majority of those 13?), then of those 35 people who are selective in what they want to play, only four of them have any interest in warlords ...
I think most of your points are reasonable, but I think you are overstating this last one. While I am surprised at the lead for BOTM + GOTM over BOTM + WOTM (given the frequency of "prefer warlords to vanilla" in the other poll thread), that might be a function of not ownnig Warlords for some of those voters, more than dislike of Warlords.
With 48 precincts reporting ... 95.83% say they will play BOTM alone or in some combination. 56.24% say they will play Vanilla alone or in some combination. 35.41% say they will play Warlords alone or in some combination. So while only 12% of your "selective group" (selective by game preference or by software ownership?) picks warlords to play, a third of the voting population does.
To me, the concern from these numbers is how only a quarter of the voters expect to play all three games. Almost all play BOTM, so the GOTM and WOTM participation falls off, possibly diluting competitiveness in those versions for awards (and affecting global rankings). Having a monthly BOTM and a second montly game that rotates between GOTM and WOTM (8/4 or 9/3 G/W) might bring the participation in the "second game" back to 90% of the active community. This might be healthier for competiton.
We would need to poll how the 12/6/12 option would be expected to play out ...
Still, if the smaller pool of WOTM players includes the elites going for those eptathlons, maybe the competitive quality is still high, even if the numbers are not, and that is what matters.
In fact, might we find that the better players prefer Warlords to vanilla when available, so the quality drop is largest for vanilla, even with more players? Maybe that is not so bad, as there has been sentiment for something like upper and lower divisions ... maybe this would happen by natural selection in a three game per month system?
dV