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Your predictions for the next decade in computing.

Discussion in 'Computer Talk' started by aimeeandbeatles, Jul 14, 2009.

  1. Chieftess

    Chieftess Moderator Retired Moderator

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    It already is. By it's nature, computers are an accessibility tool. I work as a programmer for the State of Maryland who uses accessibility software and hardware. JAWS, Dragon Naturally Speaking, ZoomText, and so on. There's also modified hardware like one-handed keyboards, tablet-PCs with screen pens (for those with mobility issues), braille printers, braille readers (both software and hardware - one that pops up little pins in a braille pattern on a keyboard-like thing). There's even "echo-location" (for the lack of a better term) devices for the blind that sends out pings when someone walks by. I've heard it whenever I walk by. :) Even the software/webpages we create must be accessible (i.e., screen readers should be able to read them) by law, and it's tested to be so. There's even accessibility software built into the operating system (screen magnification, virtual keyboard, etc.).

    Anyway, here's what I think...

    CPUs and storage devices will continue to advance. I think there's a bit of a plateau for computer speed, monitor quality, even memory (4 gigs really isn't that different than 2 gigs... unless you're using Vista or something). I had 1 gig 10 years ago.

    Gaming may see advances with the introduction of better AI chips, physics chips, and other specialized chips.

    More portable peripherals like the iPod, iPhone, will be created. That's where the technology will be. (I think the Gameboy back in the late 1980s was a pioneer in handheld technology! :D)

    As for things like the Google OS, I still doubt that we'll be seeing online operating systems or applications in mass use.
     
  2. Zelig

    Zelig Beep Boop

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    Depends how you use your computer.

    At home, I'm feel very limited by my 4GB of memory. At work, I run dual desktops with 4GB each, and am limited by both at the same time. 12-16GB would be good for me at this point in time.

    Not sure what you mean by a plateau of speed, if you're referring to what people are going to notice, or what technically possible, but either way, I expect to see huge advances in the future. I frequently run computationally intense tasks which take hours or days with 4 cores fully loaded, if this time were reduced to minutes or seconds, it would make a huge difference to my productivity.
     
  3. Genocidicbunny

    Genocidicbunny Bug squasher

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    I think the next big thing in boosting perceived speed of computers will be mainstream availability of SSD's. Once they get to a comparable price point, even if comparable to Velociraptors, their adoption rate will increase greatly. This is going to happen in the next 10 years, and more likely in the next 2-3 years. By the time I graduate college, SSD's will more likely than not be commonplace.
     
  4. aimeeandbeatles

    aimeeandbeatles watermelon

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    Media encoding? Personally I find that takes quite a while. That would be cool if you could encode a DVD to AVI within a few minutes, rather than just leaving it on overnight.
     
  5. GoodGame

    GoodGame Red, White, & Blue, baby!

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    How are they going to be used though? They'll boot an OS image from an EPROM chip every time the computer+Solid-State-Drive is turned on? Will they act as cache buffers?

    I can't imagine SSDs being used for storage. Or will they be dual-powered, say by lithium/rechargeable batteries?
     
  6. Genocidicbunny

    Genocidicbunny Bug squasher

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    Wait, why would they need a battery? SSD's already work fine as is. As long as the flash is paired witha good controller, you got a decent SSD. In the future, capacities are going to grow and costs are going to be decreased.

    I dont see why they would need EPROM or batteries. Current ones already dont need that, they function pretty much as bigger usb flash drives (and faster)
     
  7. aimeeandbeatles

    aimeeandbeatles watermelon

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    I read somewhere that SSDs are nearly useless for multitasking due to lack of disk cache. Not sure how true that is.
     
  8. Genocidicbunny

    Genocidicbunny Bug squasher

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    I do it in less than an hour for a full DVD...
    A quad core running a multicore enabled encoder can easily do a full dvd in less than an hour. Blu-ray's in a couple of hours.
    Zelig may be doing something more like analysis of data, rendering or really large compiles, which even now take forever...
     
  9. GoodGame

    GoodGame Red, White, & Blue, baby!

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    I was assuming they were always like a bank of DRAMs; I'd seen one experimental one that was essentially that---a bank of store-bought DRAMs mounted on a board. But I see now that some are flash-based.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solid-state_drive

    Might it not be a cool idea though? i.e. DRAMs that booted an OS from a chip image, so the OS ran at DRAM-speed.
     
  10. Genocidicbunny

    Genocidicbunny Bug squasher

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    Those exist. They're called RAM disks. Very, very expensive too and they dont last too long when the pc is powered off ( not even 24 hours or so )

    It would be cool, but the cost is really prohibitive. To get the highest data density, you'd want 4GB, or even 8GB modules, which may not be too expensive in singles, but get to the amounts you need for a decent OS drive, and suddenly its 300$ for the RAM alone.

    OC'ing your hard drive does sound awesome though :D
     

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