COVID - A light on the horizon?

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sendos

sendos

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Interesting BEEB story about early investment in production facilities in India

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-56025355

In India, the country's success as a Covid vaccine producer is largely down to one man,
Adar Poonawalla. He's chief executive of the Serum Institute of India, the world's largest vaccine producer.

Last year, his family started to think he has lost his mind when he began betting hundreds of
millions of dollars of his own money on vaccines that he didn't know would work.

In January, the first of those vaccines, developed by Oxford and AstraZeneca, was delivered to
the Indian government. Now he's producing 2.4 million doses a day. He's one of two main suppliers
to the Indian government - and is also supplying Brazil, Morocco, Bangladesh and South Africa.
Click to expand...
 
because this is the only thing in the world and one must also despise the response , like globally , subscription post . They claim a capacity to vaccinate 2 millions people a day , have done 3 or 4 millions by now , apparently averaging 100 000 shots a day .
 
I really don't see this business going for more than the end of Spring without mass demonstrations.
The governments actually do gain something - less pensions to pay - but endless thousands will be without a job when this ends.
 
Kyriakos said:
I really don't see this business going for more than the end of Spring without mass demonstrations.
The governments actually do gain something - less pensions to pay - but endless thousands will be without a job when this ends.
Click to expand...
It probably depends on what happens with these graphs - Distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of week 5 2021:

If this keeps going down like this, by June (end of spring?) we could have a level low enough that easing of the restrictions will be sensible. If the graph looks more like this in June (COVID-19 hospitalisations, excess deaths, and Rt in Manaus, Brazil, 2020–21):

Then we need to figure out a way to continue with reduced interpersonal contact.
 
WHO find that there were 13 variants by December 2019

Investigators from the World Health Organization (WHO) looking into the origins of coronavirus in China have discovered signs the outbreak was much wider in Wuhan in December 2019 than previously thought, and are urgently seeking access to hundreds of thousands of blood samples from the city that China has not so far let them examine.
The WHO food safety specialist added the team had been presented by Chinese scientists with 174 cases of coronavirus in and around Wuhan in December 2019. Of these 100 had been confirmed by laboratory tests, he said, and another 74 through the clinical diagnosis of the patient's symptoms.
Embarek said it was possible this larger number -- of likely severe cases that had been noticed by Chinese doctors early on -- meant the disease could have hit an estimated 1,000-plus people in Wuhan that December.

They were able to gather for the first time 13 different genetic sequences of the SARS-COV-2 virus from December 2019. The sequences, if examined with wider patient data in China across 2019, could provide valuable clues about the geography and timing of the outbreak before December.
The discovery of so many different possible variants of the virus could suggest it had been circulating for longer than just that month, as some virologists have previously suggested. This genetic material is likely the first physical evidence to emerge internationally to bolster such a theory.
Prof. Edward Holmes, a virologist at the University of Sydney, in Australia, said: "As there was already genetic diversity in SARS-CoV-2 sequences sampled from Wuhan in December 2019, it is likely that the virus was circulating for a while longer than that month alone."
Holmes, who has studied the virus' emergence at length, said these 13 sequences might indicate the virus spread for some time undetected before the December outbreak in Wuhan. "These data fit with other analyses that the virus emerged in the human population earlier than December 2019 and that there was a period of cryptic transmission before it was first detected in the Huanan market."
​
 
The Cuomo (D) nursing home scandal is flaring up again.

This time it's for lying and covering up the number of nursing home deaths because they feared a Department of Justice investigation.

It is coming out now because Biden's DOJ has no interest in investigating.

https://www.politico.com/states/new...candal-over-nursing-home-deaths-grows-1363353

I've looked around for the numbers.

New York state had 90,000 nursing home residents.
For months it was reported covid killed 8700 of them.
Now the number has been admitted to be 13200.

The amount of covid positive patients ordered into the nursing homes from hospitals in early 2020 was 9056.

**Edit**
Numbers fixed
 
Last edited:
They were able to gather for the first time 13 different genetic sequences of the SARS-COV-2 virus from December 2019. The sequences, if examined with wider patient data in China across 2019, could provide valuable clues about the geography and timing of the outbreak before December.
The discovery of so many different possible variants of the virus could suggest it had been circulating for longer than just that month, as some virologists have previously suggested. This genetic material is likely the first physical evidence to emerge internationally to bolster such a theory.
​
Click to expand...


I don't think anyone by now doubts that the virus had been circulating months before it was identified in December.

It would be nice to have "official" confirmation of that, as it would prove that even in places where it had become widespread (as in that place in central China - and it was huge, country-sized if you compare it to your average country) it is possible to get rid of it. Provided there is the political will to organize the effort to do so.​
 
innonimatu said:
It would be nice to have "official" confirmation of that, as it would prove that even in places where it had become widespread (as in that place in central China - and it was huge, country-sized if you compare it to your average country) it is possible to get rid of it. Provided there is the political will to organize the effort to do so.
Click to expand...
Yes, but currently China's denialism is focused on blaming South American exports of frozen foodstuff for having gotten the virus to Wuhan in the first place so I doubt it will happen.
 
Auckland went into lvl 3 lockdown. We're in level 2. 3 cases of community spread UK variant.

Her grand high poobah.

Wonder if we can beat this one?
 
I still wouldn't bet on the Olympics going ahead this year...

Over half of Japanese firms want Olympics cancelled or postponed: survey
Over half of Japanese firms believe the Tokyo Olympic Games should be cancelled or postponed, a survey by think tank Tokyo Shoko Research showed on Monday, casting further doubt over the fate of the troubled Games.

Only 7.7% of the firms surveyed said the Games should proceed in full form as scheduled this year, down from 22.5% in the previous survey.

Nearly 20% said the Games should be held with a limited number of spectators, while another 17% said it should proceed with no spectators, the survey showed.

Over 70% firms said canceling or postponing the Games will barely have any impact on their earnings.
https://japantoday.com/category/spo...-Olympics-cancelled-or-postponed-survey-shows
 
Ferocitus said:
I still wouldn't bet on the Olympics going ahead this year...

Over half of Japanese firms want Olympics cancelled or postponed: survey
Over half of Japanese firms believe the Tokyo Olympic Games should be cancelled or postponed, a survey by think tank Tokyo Shoko Research showed on Monday, casting further doubt over the fate of the troubled Games.

Only 7.7% of the firms surveyed said the Games should proceed in full form as scheduled this year, down from 22.5% in the previous survey.

Nearly 20% said the Games should be held with a limited number of spectators, while another 17% said it should proceed with no spectators, the survey showed.

Over 70% firms said canceling or postponing the Games will barely have any impact on their earnings.
https://japantoday.com/category/spo...-Olympics-cancelled-or-postponed-survey-shows
Click to expand...
It seems mad that the plan is for loads of people to travel to Japan this year. It seems to me the the choice has to be another postponement or very few foreign spectators.
 
Samson said:
It probably depends on what happens with these graphs - Distribution of COVID-19 cases worldwide, as of week 5 2021:

If this keeps going down like this, by June (end of spring?) we could have a level low enough that easing of the restrictions will be sensible. If the graph looks more like this in June (COVID-19 hospitalisations, excess deaths, and Rt in Manaus, Brazil, 2020–21):

Then we need to figure out a way to continue with reduced interpersonal contact.
Click to expand...

If. :)

Because epidemiological models make statements about the future, it’s tempting to liken them to weather forecasts - but it’s also deeply wrong.
The two are in no way ever comparable, as scientists who work with the models are quick to emphasize. Yet the mistaken belief that they can make
similar kinds of predictions is often at the heart of public tension over modeling’s “failures.”

The Hard Lessons of Modeling the Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-hard-lessons-of-modeling-the-coronavirus-pandemic-20210128/
 
Samson said:
It seems mad that the plan is for loads of people to travel to Japan this year. It seems to me the the choice has to be another postponement or very few foreign spectators.
Click to expand...
Spain, Italy and Britain cross-fertilised each other with Champions League matches back in the early denialist stages about a year ago.

We humans just don't learn.
 
Takhisis said:
Spain, Italy and Britain cross-fertilised each other with Champions League matches back in the early denialist stages about a year ago.

We humans just don't learn.
Click to expand...

Sag mir wo ... die Blumen sind
 
Guinea: Really? Do we really need any more?
Ebola outbreak death toll rises to four

Guinea is tracking down people who potentially came in contact with Ebola patients and will distribute vaccines as soon as it can get them, Health Minister Remy Lamah said on Monday
The West African country declared a new Ebola epidemic on Sunday after confirming seven infections.
​
 
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