Coronavirus 12: Don't Abandon Hope

[Samson]

Some early anecdotal suggestions they're not seeing many severe cases of illness in Omicron infections. If that holds it may be that we've gotten a variety that's become more transmissible at the expense of less virulence, which would be quite good news.

Lets hope. From this news I assumed it would be worse:

Genome sequencing and other genetic analysis from de Oliveria’s team found that the B.1.1.529 variant was responsible for all of 77 of the virus samples they analysed from [hospitalisations in] Gauteng
​

In that if all the hospitalisations were omicron but not all the cases were then it would be worse. So many things that could have made that assumption wrong though.

 

[Arwon]

Pretty low cases in South Africa prior to this, so the predominance doesn't necessarily tell us a lot

 

[Joij21]

So I heard they skipped Nu for some reason and skipped Xi because it sounds too much like a certain Chinese leader. Therefore it's Omicron I guess.

 

[Joij21]

If you go by recorded cases, the majority of cases have been in Northern America and Europe, and it ballons even further with South America. Yet the new varients keep seeming to pop up in those places. I keep expecting to hear of the next notable variant to be a US one, but it hasn't happened.

It's because these newer variants are bioweapons deployed by the CCP. South Africa and India happen to be the deployment zones for the viral agents.

 

[innonimatu]

We had yesterday from before the 12.00 noon flight stop, two flights with in total 600 passengers who tested for 10% positive on Covid.
People from earlier flights now being called to test centra.

Fingers crossed that none have this omicron (is under investigation now).
But the scary version is ofc that we got already in the past weeks this virus strain imported.

International travel must be controlled before these variants show up. Now it's too late - it's spreading in Europe already.
This is so easy to understand that claims to be able to react instead of preempt the new variants serve only to cover up incompetence.

Some early anecdotal suggestions they're not seeing many severe cases of illness in Omicron infections. If that holds it may be that we've gotten a variety that's become more transmissible at the expense of less virulence, which would be quite good news.

If a variant spreads more easily, it will be producing more virus inside the organism. It will worsen people's conditions faster, leaving les time for immune responses. If you have to make any guess the guess can only be it'll be worse.

There is zero reason to hope that a more virulent variant will be milder. There is this very logical reason to expect that more virulent variant will be worse.

Why are people still so much in denial after one and a half years of incompetence, disaster upon disaster? Still excusing it?

 

[GenMarshall]

Therefore it's Omicron I guess.

Expect this guy to be relevant again:

 

[Samson]

Expect this guy to be relevant again:

I cannot help but think about him every time I hear the word. BTW I think that site does not like hotlinking:

 

[Hrothbern]

On that possible fast spreading of this omicron

Let's not overlook that the HIV percentage in South Africa is very high... the amount weakened immune systems very high
From Wiki: all population 13%, age group 15-49 19%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS_in_South_Africa

It will have for sure the effect that mutating is easier because longer in the same body (with that weakened immune system)
and unknown effects from a virus strain possibly optimised for attacking HIV weakened immune systems.

 

[Evie]

Worth keeping in mind is that not every place has the same hospitalization policies - I'm told HK for example hospitalizes anyone diagnosed even if asymptomatic (as they did with their first Omicron case) - so what exactly hospitalized means severity-wise is a bit of a question mark.

 

[red_elk]

On that possible fast spreading of this omicron

Let's not overlook that the HIV percentage in South Africa is very high... the amount weakened immune systems very high
From Wiki: all population 13%, age group 15-49 19%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS_in_South_Africa

It will have for sure the effect that mutating is easier because longer in the same body (with that weakened immune system)
and unknown effects from a virus strain possibly optimised for attacking HIV weakened immune systems.

From what I heard this is exactly what happened.
Omicron has large number of mutations with yet unknown effects and most likely reason for them is virus persistent for a long time in immunocompromised patients.

 

[stfoskey12]

It seems we should maybe prioritize giving Covid antivirals to immunocompromised patients to prevent future variants from developing.

 

[innonimatu]

This is true, but "everything" is just a few tens of PRC tests in South Africa. I certainly would not bet against it, but we have pretty little data at this point.

No. Everything is the huge number of mutations. And the discussions I'm seeing about those among researchers of this virus.

But you don't have to trust my word. Look at the news. If the covid deniers in governments around the world are finally panicking - enough to finally stop flights and start closing borders - you can bet it's bad.

From what I heard this is exactly what happened.
Omicron has large number of mutations with yet unknown effects and most likely reason for them is virus persistent for a long time in immunocompromised patients.

It was a matter of time. With the virus allowed to circulate, and people being treated and/or vaccinated, it would mutate to evade keep better infecting people and evade immunity. This was the expected result. Not the fairy tale of a virus evolving to be less lethal. There is no evolutionary pressure on sars* to become less lethal because the infected have plenty of time to spread it. The evolutionary pressure is solely towards evading immune responses.

There is only one way to stop this: border closures, strict quarantines on everyone who crosses, and wiping out again with lockdowns.

And this crap could have been avoided if borders had continued to be properly guarded, with 100% double testing and quarantines. This variant would not have spread and new lengthy lockdowns would not be necessary to stop it. Preventing spread of new variants is the key. But governments persist in sabotaging that, and then react instead of preventing disaster.

It seems we should maybe prioritize giving Covid antivirals to immunocompromised patients to prevent future variants from developing.

Probably useless, see above. Or see HIV. Antivirals that are less that almost 100% effective will select for immune escape or antiviral escape. And there are no perfect antivirals known for covid. The Merks drug has been quietly downgraded. Ivermectin if it helps is not a miracle cure. "Pfizermectin" hits the same molecular targets and won't be anywhere near 100% good. We don't even know if any of the possibly helpful antivirals help with this variant.

The only way to prevent deadlier mutations is to end covid circulation in all populations. Kill the virus, extinguish it. Whatever it takes. Too big a task to do it globally now, split the problem: do it locally.

Also, afaik here is no evidence that this new variant even appeared in South Africa, Johannesburg is a hub for the whole region. It was found there, just like the Wuhan version was found in Wuhan. Could have come from elsewhere.

 

[AmazonQueen]

No. Everything is the huge number of mutations. And the discussions I'm seeing about those among researchers of this virus.

But you don't have to trust my word. Look at the news. If the covid deniers in governments around the world are finally panicking - enough to finally stop flights and start closing borders - you can bet it's bad.



It was a matter of time. With the virus allowed to circulate, and people being treated and/or vaccinated, it would mutate to evade keep better infecting people and evade immunity. This was the expected result. Not the fairy tale of a virus evolving to be less lethal. There is no evolutionary pressure on sars* to become less lethal because the infected have plenty of time to spread it. The evolutionary pressure is solely towards evading immune responses.

There is only one way to stop this: border closures, strict quarantines on everyone who crosses, and wiping out again with lockdowns.

And this crap could have been avoided if borders had continued to be properly guarded, with 100% double testing and quarantines. This variant would not have spread and new lengthy lockdowns would not be necessary to stop it. Preventing spread of new variants is the key. But governments persist in sabotaging that, and then react instead of preventing disaster.



Probably useless, see above. Or see HIV. Antivirals that are less that almost 100% effective will select for immune escape or antiviral escape. And there are no perfect antivirals known for covid. The Merks drug has been quietly downgraded. Ivermectin if it helps is not a miracle cure. "Pfizermectin" hits the same molecular targets and won't be anywhere near 100% good. We don't even know if any of the possibly helpful antivirals help with this variant.

The only way to prevent deadlier mutations is to end covid circulation in all populations. Kill the virus, extinguish it. Whatever it takes. Too big a task to do it globally now, split the problem: do it locally.

Also, afaik here is no evidence that this new variant even appeared in South Africa, Johannesburg is a hub for the whole region. It was found there, just like the Wuhan version was found in Wuhan. Could have come from elsewhere.

Probable it came from elsewhere. South Africa has the best healthcare in southern Africa.

 

[MrCynical]

And the discussions I'm seeing about those among researchers of this virus.

Any chance of you linking these "discussions" here? Because your track record on correctly reporting what a source says is atrocious, Innonimatu. And there's minimal information out there to be discussing as yet.

This was the expected result. Not the fairy tale of a virus evolving to be less lethal. There is no evolutionary pressure on sars* to become less lethal because the infected have plenty of time to spread it. The evolutionary pressure is solely towards evading immune responses.

All viruses have the evolutionary pressure to evade immune response - this is so inherent it's a more or less useless statement. It's not the sole pressure though. Any new strain of Covid has a bunch of competing pressures to maintain a sustainable R number. A major one is outcompeting the existing strains - Delta managed it, essentially wiping out the earlier strains in its wake. And yes, it's got to bypass the various immunities from the different vaccines, previous infection, etc. What there isn't (and never is) is an evolutionary pressure to make a virus more lethal. However much you're rooting for it, in your desperate quest for an "I told you so", we have no reason to expect this variant to be more lethal.

In fact, if the theory that this variant has been racking up its large number of mutations by lingering in immunocompromised patients is correct, then it's been subject to very substantial evolutionary pressure for reduced lethality. Because it's had to, y'know, not kill its hosts over a very lengthy infection, despite them not having a properly working immune system. Heavy pressure for reduced severity and symptoms. I've yet to see any useful information comparing lethality - not enough Omicron cases detected yet for meaningful comparison.

By the way - this issue with the virus surviving for long periods in immunocompromised patients is another reason the whole "lock everything down for a while and it'll be eradicated" idea doesn't work. These kind of lingering infections serve as long term reservoirs for the virus, and will simply resurge once the lockdown is lifted. We saw something similar happen with flu and RSV earlier this year.

Ivermectin if it helps is not a miracle cure. "Pfizermectin" hits the same molecular targets and won't be anywhere near 100% good. We don't even know if any of the possibly helpful antivirals help with this variant.

You're giving away that you're still getting your info from misinformation sites. Ivermectin doesn't do anything, as has been demonstrated far more times than should have been necessary. There's never been a credible claim as to what molecular targets Ivermectin is alleged to be hitting - it's treated as a magical black box treatment by the non-scientists plugging it. Claims any other drug is hitting the "same target" are therefore self evidently wrong as there is no Ivermectin target to be comparing to. "Pfizermectin" is a term straight out of anti-vaxxer echo chambers, and would not be used by anyone with even a basic understanding of this area. Despite what's claimed, neither Paxlovid or Molnupiravir bear any resemblance to Ivermectin, as anyone who can look at a chemical structure would be able to tell.

 

[red_elk]

It seems we should maybe prioritize giving Covid antivirals to immunocompromised patients to prevent future variants from developing.

Most of them are probably HIV patients somewhere in Africa who become immunocompromised due to lack of antivirals.
So yes, the idea seems right, though I'm not sure it's realistic now.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

All viruses have the evolutionary pressure to evade immune response - this is so inherent it's a more or less useless statement. It's not the sole pressure though. Any new strain of Covid has a bunch of competing pressures to maintain a sustainable R number. A major one is outcompeting the existing strains - Delta managed it, essentially wiping out the earlier strains in its wake. And yes, it's got to bypass the various immunities from the different vaccines, previous infection, etc. What there isn't (and never is) is an evolutionary pressure to make a virus more lethal. However much you're rooting for it, in your desperate quest for an "I told you so", we have no reason to expect this variant to be more lethal.

That is an interesting thing. Obviously there is not evolutionary pressure for making virus more lethal, but does that fact imply that virus tend to be less lethal with time? So it is like the dodo, which without evolutionary pressure to fly, ended losing its wings?

 

[MrCynical]

That is an interesting thing. Obviously there is not evolutionary pressure for making virus more lethal, but does that fact imply that virus tend to be less lethal with time?

Very lethal viruses will be under strong pressure to become much less lethal, but there's some diminishing returns here. Where a virus has jumped from another species, it's quite common to see a drop in lethality as it adapts to a new host, but it won't necessarily go all the way to harmless. It's just got to get to a point where it's benign enough to the host that the virus doesn't burn itself out (i.e. it can keep its R-number above 1). That's how viruses like smallpox could survive through human history, despite relatively high lethality - it was balanced by high infectivity.

I can't come up with an example of a virus getting more lethal while transmitting within a species though. It can happen with viruses bouncing back and forth between species, as mutations that are benign in one host species may be actively harmful in another. Influenza is the obvious example of that.

 

[innonimatu]

That is an interesting thing. Obviously there is not evolutionary pressure for making virus more lethal, but does that fact imply that virus tend to be less lethal with time? So it is like the dodo, which without evolutionary pressure to fly, ended losing its wings?

There is no basis to claim that a virus tends to evolve to become less lethal over time. That was yet another lie deployed by those e who wanted to persuade people to "live with covid".
The only situation where such an evolution might be positive for the spread of the virus (what evolution selects for) would be if the original virus was very lethal and fast acting.

With covid the evolutionary pressure is for greater viral shedding and for evading the immune system. Both are terrible prospects for us human. Both are to be avoided by keeping covid suppressed. The opposite of what was done, which was vaccinate and "let it rip".

There is a whole paper about the molecular targets that ivermectin can bind to and interfere with covid. Only someone

Look at this. During the holy war waged by certain government agencies and obedient mainstream media against every positive mention of ivermectin, the paper was "retracted". Cancelled by the editor of the journal, under pressure. Not on any scientific basis. The molecular mechanisms described in it are asserted as valid, nevertheless it is a "bad paper" because nothing good can be published about ivermectin.

The Editor-in-Chief has retracted this article. Following publication, concerns were raised regarding the methodology and the conclusions of this review article. Postpublication review confirmed that while the review article appropriately describes the mechanism of action of ivermectin, the cited sources do not appear to show that there is clear clinical evidence of the effect of ivermectin for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2. The Editor-in-Chief therefore no longer has confidence in the reliability of this review article. None of the authors agree to this retraction. The online version of this article contains the full text of the retracted article as Supplementary Information.

The article proposes mechanisms of action that are deemed plausible by every biochemist who looked at it. Technically it is considered fully correct. But it committed the heresy of mentioning some positive clinical trials registered with ClinicalTrials.gov and meta-amalysis of efficacy of ivermectin against covid. That was excuse enough for a compliant editor to order it retracted. Draw your own conclusions. If you haven't drawn conclusions yet from the lies upon lies told about this pandemic.

 

[Narz]

During the holy war waged by certain government agencies and obedient mainstream media against every positive mention of ivermectin, the paper was "retracted". Cancelled by the editor of the journal, under pressure. Not on any scientific basis. The molecular mechanisms described in it are asserted as valid, nevertheless it is a "bad paper" because nothing good can be published about ivermectin.

Follow the money

 

[Ferocitus]

So I heard they skipped Nu for some reason and skipped Xi because it sounds too much like a certain Chinese leader.

You'd need a whole new level of conspiracy theory with Covid Xi emerging at the same time as Windows XI is being rolled out.